1 Reliability

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Reliability Outline
Reliability Basic Concepts Reliability Models Reliability System Configurations Analysis of System Reliability Application of Reliability in Aviation Business
Reliability in Logistics
Reliability Basic Concepts
What is Reliability Reliability Definitions What Affects Reliability How is Reliability Used Goal of Reliability Bathtub Curve Reliability Function
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What is Reliability
To the user of a product, reliability is problem free operation Reliability is a function of stress To efficiently achieve reliability, rely on analytical understanding of reliability and less on understanding reliability through testing
Reliability Definitions
Reliability is a characteristic of an item, expressed by the probability that the item will perform its required function under given conditions for a stated time interval. (Prof. Dr. Alessandro Birolini, 1999) The probability that an item will perform a required function without failure under stated conditions for a stated period of time. (Patrick D. T. OConnor, 1992)
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The probability that an item will perform its intended function for a specified interval under stated conditions. (Reliability Analysis Center and Rome Laboratory, 1993) The rigorous definition has four parts:
1. Reliability is the probability that a system 2. will demonstrate specified performance 3. For a stated period of time 4. when operated under specified conditions. (Daniel L. Babcock, 1996)
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Probability Given Time
Reliability
Stated Conditions
Performance
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What Affects Reliability
Redundancy ( ) Design Simplicity Time Learning Curve Material Quality Experience Requirements
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How is Reliability Used
It is used to define the longevity of a product and the associated cost it incurs It helps identify risk of the product for both the consumer and producer It incorporates statistics to better identify how much give or take can go into a product or service - usually, the higher the reliability, the higher the initial cost.
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It predicts the likely hood of failure rates for a given product or service Perform sensitivity analyses
Mission effectiveness Supportability Life cycle costs Warranties
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Reliability Goals 1. Increase competitive position 2. Increase customer satisfaction 3. Reduce customer support requirements 4. Decrease cost of ownership
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Bathtub Curve
Decreasing Failure Rate debugging Constant Failure Rate Region Exponential Law applies Increasing Failure Rate Region wearout
Failure Rates Hazard Rate P
Infant Mortality
Useful Life
System Life Cycle
Wear-out
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Reliability Function
RS (t ) ! 1 F (t )
If the random variable t has a density function f(t), then Rs(t)
RS (t ) ! f (t )dt
t
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If the time to failure is described by an exponential density function, then
and
1 t /U f (t ) ! e U
g
RS (t ) !
1 t / U t / U e dt ! e U
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Mean life (U) is the arithmetic average of the lifetimes of all items considered5 The mean life (U) of the exponential function is equivalent to the mean time between failure, hence
RS (t ) ! e
Pt
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Where P is the instantaneous failure rate
1 P! U
Or
number of failures P! total operating hours

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Weibull Distribution: Can be considered as a generalization of the exponential Has three parameters
K = the time at which F(t) = 0 and is a datum parameter; i.e., failures start occurring at time t W = the characteristic life and is a scale parameter F = shape parameter
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Weibull Distribution:
RS (t ) ! e
( Pt ) F
F (t K ) P (t ) ! F W F 1 ! FP ( FP )
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F 1
1 F MTTF ! K W+ F
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F=4 F=1 Hazard Rate P
F<1 F=1
F>1
F=1/2
tK
Infant Mortality
Useful Life
Wear-out
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Example
Suppose ten components were tested under specified conditions Assume the following data from the test Suppose the components are non repairable What is P?
Component Op Hours Failure One 250 No Two 85 Yes Three 250 No Four 95 Yes Five 115 Yes Six 250 No Seven 75 Yes Eight 250 No Nine 105 Yes Ten 250 No 1725
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Solution:
number of failures P! total operating hours 5 P! 1725 P ! 0.0029
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Example
Use the following figure to determine P and MTBF Assume an exponential distribution
Failures 10 Operation 30 5 25 10 10
20
25
15
30
50
20
10
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Solution:
1 number of failures MTBF ! P! P total operating time 1 6 MTBF ! P! 0.0353 170 MTBF ! 28.33 P ! 0.0353
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System Reliability Models
The reliability definitions, concepts and models presented apply at any level of a system, from a single discretecomponent up to and including the entire system
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Systems reliability deals with the reliability of the end-item system and is based on the system configuration and component failure rates as well intended service usage There are two basic types of reliability configurations
Series Parallel or Redundant
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Series Configuration
Simplest and most common structure in reliability analysis Functional operation of the system depends on the successful operation of all system components Note: The electrical or mechanical configuration may differ from the reliability configuration
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Series Reliability configuration with n elements: E1, E2, ..., En Block Diagram:
E1
E2
En
Since a single path exists, the failure of any element in the system interrupts the path and causes the system to fail
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Exponential distributions of element time to failure Ti ~ I(Ui) for i = 1, 2, ...n
System reliability
PS t n
R S (t) ! e
n
R (t)
i i !1
Where
P S ( t ) ! P iis the system failure rate

i !1
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System mean time to failure
1 MTTFS ! ! 5S PS
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Parallel Configuration
Definition - a system is said to have parallel reliability configuration if the system function can be performed by any one of two or more paths Reliability block diagram - for a parallel reliability configuration consisting of n elements, E1, E2, ... En
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Exponential distributions of element time to failure Ti ~ I(Ui) for i= 1, 2, ... n
System reliability
R S (t) ! 1
1 ? e A! 1 ?1 R (t)A
Pi t i i !1 i !1
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System mean time between failure MTBFS =
1 1 P P P i !1 ij i i j
n i j
1 ... (1) n 1 1 P P P n i jk i j k i j k Pi
i !1
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Redundant reliability configurationsometimes called a redundant reliability configuration. Other times, the term redundant is used only when the system is deliberately changed to provide additional paths, in order to improve the system reliability.
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Basic assumptions
All elements are continuously energized starting at time t = 0 All elements are up at time t = 0 The operation during time t of each element can be described as either a success or a failure, i.e., degraded operation or performance is not considered
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m elements E1 E2 Em Rs(t) = 1 - (1-p)m E1,1 E2,1 Em,n n elements E1,2 E2,2 Em,n E1,n E2,n Em,n
Rs(t) = 1 - (1-pn)m
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n elements m elements E1 E2 E1 E2 E1 E2
Em
Em Rs(t) = [1 - (1-p)m ]n
Em
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x E2 x E3
INPUT E1

E
E2 E3
OUTPUT
E1
1 1- R 1- (1-E1)(1-E2)(1-E3)
E1 E2 E3 INPUT OUTPUT
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Configuration Considerations in Design
Series Configuration - Relative to Redundant Configuration
Simpler Increases Basic Reliability Reduces Support Resources Decreases Mission Reliability
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Redundant Configuration - Relative to Series Configuration
More Complex - Increases Weight Requires More Testability Increases Support Resources Decreases Basic Reliability Increases Mission Reliability
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Series Model Example:
What is the reliability of the following system given that:
E1 = 0.9400 E2 = 0.9500 E3 = 0.9800 E1 E2 E3
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Series Model Example:
Solution:
Use the product rule Rs(t) = E1 E2 E3 = (0.9400) (0.9500) (0.9800) = 0.8751 0.94 0.95 0.98
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Parallel Model Example:
What is the reliability of the following system given that:
E1 = 0.9400 E2 = 0.9500 E3 = 0.9800 E1 E2 E3
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Parallel Model Example:
Solution:
Rs(t) = [1 - (1 - E1) (1 - E2) (1 - E3)] = [1-(1-0.9400)(1-0.9500)(1-0.9800)] = [1 - (0.0600)(0.0500)(0.0200) = 0.9999 0.94 0.95 0.98
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Reliability Analysis
Use to determine reliability of system Helps make informative decisions Illustrates faults in subsets of system Depicts through modeling increasing Rs(t)
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Bathtub Curve
Hazard Rate P
Infant Mortality
Useful Life
Wear-out
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To Load Process Area Pallets Packer
QC
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To Load To Store
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To Shelf
Choose Vendor
Customer Purchase
Unsatisfied Customer
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Exercise 1
Determine the MTTF and MTTR for the given data of a system (assume exp):
TTF (hr) 125 44 27 53 8 46 5 20 15 12 TTR (hr) 1.0 1.0 9.8 1.0 1.2 0.2 3.0 0.3 3.1 1.5 TTF (hr) 58 53 36 25 106 200 159 4 79 27 TTR (hr) 1.0 0.8 0.5 1.7 3.6 6.0 1.5 2.5 0.3 3.8
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Exercise 1
If the system operates for 8.0 consecutive hours, what is the reliability of the system?
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Exercise 2
Determine the MTTF and MTTR for the given data of a system in the next slide (assume exp). What is the reliability of the system if it operates for three continuous hours?
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Component 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 Repair t 0.0 4.5 7.4 0.0 1.7 0.0 6.8 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.0 3.7 0.0 6.2 0.0 Failure t 3.10 6.60 9.50 1.05 4.50 5.80 8.80 2.10 6.40 4.80 3.00 1.40 5.40 2.85 6.70 4.10 8.95 7.35 Repair At 4.50 7.40 1.70 8.50 6.80 3.80 8.60 8.30 6.50 3.50 7.60 3.65 9.50 6.20
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Exercise 3
What is the reliability of the following system (assume all components exhibit an exponential distribution)?
E3 E2 E1 E2 E3 E2 E3 E1 E2 E3 E3 E3 E1 E1 E3
E1 = 0.90 E2 = 0.95 E3 = 0.85
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Exercise 3
If you could change only one of the components, which one would you change? Why? What is the reliability of the new system?
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Solution 1
MTTF = 55.10 MTTR = 2.19 Rs(t) = 0.86
Solution 2
MTTF = 3.05 MTTR = 2.05 Rs(t) = 0.37
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Solution 3
Part I:
Rs(t) = 0.81
Part II:
Change E3 on the output In series with system failure at this junction causes system failure Rs(t) = 0.91
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References
1. Prof. Dr. Alessandro Birolini, Reliability Engineering: Theory and Practice, (Germany: Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, Third Edition, 1999), p.2. Patrick D. T. OConnor, Practical Reliability Engineering, (New York, New York: John Wiley & Sons, Third Edition, October 1992), p.3. Reliability Analysis Center and Rome Laboratory, Reliability Toolkit: Commercial Practices Edition, 1993, p.36. Daniel L. Babcock, Managing Engineering and Technology, (New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc., Second Edition, 1996), p. 204.
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3. 4.
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References
5. Benjamin S. Blanchard, Logistics Engineering and Management, (Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Pearson/Prentice Hall, 2004), p. 47. Ernest J. Henley and Hiromistsu Kumamoto, Reliability Engineering and Risk Assessment, (Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, 1981), p. 238.
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1 Reliability

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1 Reliability

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Failure Rates Hazard Rate P

number of failures P! total operating hours

number of failures P! total operating hours 5 P! 1725 P ! 0.0029

P S ( t ) ! P iis the system failure rate

E1 = 0.90 E2 = 0.95 E3 = 0.85

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