5 Steps to Heaven A Rolls-Royce Perspective

Dr Ian K Jennions EHM Global Capability Owner

IBM Almaden Institute, San Jose 7th May 2008
2008 Rolls-Royce plc The information in this document is the property of Rolls-Royce plc and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Rolls-Royce plc. This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Rolls-Royce plc, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Rolls-Royce plc or any of its subsidiary or associated Rolls-Royce data strictly private companies.

5 Steps to Heaven A Rolls-Royce Perspective

Introduction
Our Service Business Asset Management

Business Landscape
5 Steps to Heaven Simulation of Total Care Value in Data

Technology Successes
Marine EHM (Equipment Health Management) AE3007 HP Vane QUICK

Future
Current Issues Summary

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Rolls-Royces four markets

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Rolls-Royce Group plc - 2007

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Video: New Thinking, Joined Up Thinking'

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5 Steps to Heaven A Rolls-Royce Perspective

Introduction
Our Service Business Asset Management

Business Landscape
5 Steps to Heaven Simulation of Total Care Value in Data

Technology Successes
Marine EHM (Equipment Health Management) AE3007 HP Vane QUICK

Future
Current Issues Summary

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Changing Customer Requirements

Integrated Reactive Aligned

Customer Value

Traditional Support  Spare parts  Repair & overhaul

Enhanced Support  Data & forecasting services  Technical & logistics support  Customer training

Advanced Support  Comprehensive package integrating elements of basic and enhanced support  Spares inclusive R&O contracts

Total Support  Complete, availability- based service. Can cover all off-aircraft, and some on-aircraft activity  Configuration management & reliability enhancements covered

Extended Support  Partnered capability to cover complete weapon systems  Turn-key services  Non-propulsion related support solutions

Increased Scope

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The EHM Transformation Staircase - Defence

Customer Risk Service Provider Risk

Basic Support Traditional

Enhanced Support Forecasting

Advanced Support Asset Management

Total Support Engine Availability

Extended Support Total Management

Stage 5 Stage 4 Future EHM
- Unknown at this time, but could include Powerplant and/or platform health monitoring

Extended EHM Stage 3 Stage 2 Stage 1 Basic EHM

- Lifing cyclic counts - Digital borescope

Total Care EHM

- Data fusion oil/performance/vibration - Integration with LCC & WSG tools - Advanced diagnostic - Dynamic performance model (COMPASS)

- Piece part diagnostics - Prognostic capability - Networking of systems (BROADEN)

Advanced EHM
Lifing Performance trending Oil trending Vibration trending Improved life counting Basic diagnostics

Customer Exploits Info. to Reduce Cost Commodity

RR Exploits Info. to Increase Cost Effectiveness of Product Service

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Total Care Simulation - Example

 Product Operation
 aircraft, engine, airport, operations control

 Product Behaviour
 engine, module, part, virtual characteristic

 Asset Management
 parts, modules, dedicated & lease pool spare engines, operator interaction

 Manufacturing & Supply

 aircraft, engines, modules, parts

 Transportation & Logistics

 engines, modules, parts

 Engine Repair, Overhaul & Test

 capacity, capability, resourcing, availability

 Component & Module Repair

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Total Care Simulation - video

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Integrated Products and Services (IPAS)

Key:

New (IPAS) New (IPAS) Existing

Knowledge flow

Customer

Service Engineer/ Overhaul Shop

Service Engineers/Overhaul trained and motivated to share knowledge with design. Tools, methods and processes available to support data and knowledge capture

Service Data

LCC Modelling Toolkit LCC Modelling Toolkit (WP3) Designer (WP3) Knowledge Desktop Designer Designer Knowledge Knowledge Desktop (WP1) Desktop (WP1) Service Provider

Product Designer

Customer

LCC Modelling Toolkit

Customer
Designer able to search easily for knowledge via intuitive interface, ontology models and social solutions. Able to do LCC trade offs, understands service needs

Product designed to support the service offering existing service knowledge base fully used, continuous improvement via optimized IPAS Processes

Social Issues and Solutions Social Issues and Solutions (WP1)

Optimised IPAS Processes

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The IPAS System Architecture

Knowledge Desktop
Ontologies
Parts Features Mechanisms Materials Data Types

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Knowledge

K-Search

SAP

SDM

RCP

Reports

Other

Information

K-Forms
Legacy Doc Legacy Data Source 2 New Doc

K-Forms
New Data Source 4 ETC

Web Services

Data

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IPAS Results the ability to search legacy data

 Legacy data is largely unstructured and is captured and stored in a variety of

ways.  Development of ontologies for hardware description, failure mechanism etc. allow us to make sense of unstructured legacy data.  K-Search provides a means of interrogating legacy data and presenting structured search results back to the user  K-Search is a learning system that builds an understanding of document content such that after the learning process >95% rate of correct automated document content classification can be achieved.

Automatically extracting knowledge from legacy unstructured data

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5 Steps to Heaven A Rolls-Royce Perspective

Introduction
Our Service Business Asset Management

Business Landscape
5 Steps to Heaven Simulation of Total Care Value in Data

Technology Successes
Marine EHM (Equipment Health Management) AE3007 HP Vane QUICK

Future
Current Issues Summary

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Marine Off-shore Supply and Service Vessel

Propulsion units monitored:  4 Bergen 6 cylinder C engines.  2 Azipull thrusters.  2 Tunnel thrusters.  1 swing up thruster.

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Vessel 49 EHM Network Installation.

RRM Service Centre RRM Ship network EHM Central unit

Propulsion EHM unit Engines EHM unit Engines Ethernet Data Coll. unit Thrusters EHM unit

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AE3007 HPT Vane Distress

 Leading edge burns away over time  Causes: cooling blockage, oxidation  Condition that typically occurs on high time engines
(primarily on-condition engines)  Causes increased stress on the 1st stage blade leading to high cycle fatigue (secondary damage)  Turbine blade fracture leads to in flight shut down and a 2x shop visit cost

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AE3007 HPT Vane Distress

Vane distress showed up as performance changes.  Data fusion allows clear signature to be set  Fuel flow, turbine temp, pressure & speed  50 hour window after detection with 96% confidence of preventing HPT blade failures  Allows time to schedule removal  Thresholds set to balance false positives and false negatives  Relatively small number of false alerts and false negatives

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AE3007 HPT Vane Distress - Savings

 The alternative of not having EHM for this issue  Allow HPT-1 blade failures  Pull engines in mod campaign  Implement a 50 hr boroscope inspection interval  8 yr EHM Savings estimated at over $60M  Based on mod campaign or inspections both ($$$$)  Savings continue as engines age and experience vane
distress

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So Whats the Problem ?

With high-integrity systems such as jet engines, conventional fault detection methods have limited capability:  The most important examples (i.e. the abnormalities) are very rare  Some of the fault conditions may not have been seen before  Subtle pre-cursor events often exist prior to failure but these are rarely detected by employing conventional techniques. Advances being made at RR via advanced computational and signal processing methods, specifically:  QUICK, learn a description of normality and test against it (OBS)  Crack detection and propagation (Cranfield University)  Knowledge Based Diagnostics (Sheffield University)  DAME (Universities of York, Leeds, Sheffield and Oxford)

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Quantitative User friendly Intelligent Collection of Knowledge (QUICK)

QUICK is a system used for real time acquisition and intelligent analysis of vibration and performance data from gas turbine engines. QUICK has been developed over a number of years between Oxford University, Oxford BioSignals and Rolls-Royce The innovation in the product lies in:
 The use of Computational Intelligence to quantify features  Building models of normality  Fusion of data from disparate sources for engine diagnostics.  The system is exploitable in other fields (e.g. medical)

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QUICK video: Innovation Award

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Novelty Thresholds Bayesian EVT

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Example results 826 tests

Method 1: Bayesian EVT Data Set A1 A2 B1 B2 B3 B4 Overall
Sensitivity Specificity

Method 2: Classical EVT

Sensitivity Specificity

Method 3: Expert Heuristic

Sensitivity Specificity

0.75 1.00 0.78

1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 0.99

0.75 1.00 0.78

0.97 0.90 0.99 0.85 0.70 0.70 0.83

0.75 1.00 0.78

0.93 1.00 0.99 0.45 0.68 0.65 0.73

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5 Steps to Heaven A Rolls-Royce Perspective

Introduction
Our Service Business Asset Management

Business Landscape
5 Steps to Heaven Simulation of Total Care Value in Data

Technology Successes
Marine EHM (Equipment Health Management) AE3007 HP Vane QUICK

Future
Current Issues Summary

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Different perspectives system boundaries

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EHM Intelligence Dichotomy



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Fleet centred view - the realisation of full value by having an accurate, real time fleet view of the state of all assets  Platform centric view - Devolving EHM intelligence to the local platform to compensate for: limitations in communicating with a central information hub (a lack of infrastructure and capacity) Requirements for assets to operate and be maintained autonomously Concerns for data privacy and IPR

CENTRAL HUB Processes EHM data centrally and issues alerts. Maintains an overview of the condition of the full fleet. Is able to mitigate the operational consequences of failure

Communications bandwidth may be limited and may be expensive

Some organizations do not want to export their data beyond their firewalls

Data Communications infrastructure Real time monitoring offers advantages of better resolution, earlier detection and a wider scope of failure mode detection - at the price of having to process much higher data volumes

LOCAL PLATFORM LOCAL PLATFORM LOCAL PLATFORM Often has to operate Often has to operate deployed and autonomously, Often has toautonomously, operate deployed andhas an ability to and often deployed andhas an ability to and often autonomously, self maintain. If the platform and often has an the platform self maintain. If ability to is mobile, data self maintain on mission. If is mobile, data communications may be the communications may be platform is mobile, data limited communications channels limited may change and be limited

THE RESULT IS PRESSURE TO PUSH EHM INTELLIGENCE TOWARD THE PLATFORM

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Vision: HUMS Information Fused with Operations for Optimised Fleet Management
CoreControl CoreAlert Service Data Manager Aero Exec Integrator

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SAP

Gold (T45 Programme)

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Vision: The Operations Room of the Future?

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EHUMS data download from A/C using data retrieval unit (DRU) routed via Ground Support System (GSS) to Operations Centre

Oil uplift and utilization data transferred from Squadron and pilot reports

AI fault recognition and diagnosis

Repair and Overhaul

Customers can view status on DefenceManager

Operations Room - processes information

All Operations linked through global GRID system

Customers alerted by pager, e-mail or cell phone

Service team monitors output and liases with customer

Agent-based aftermarket modelling and decision support

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5 Steps to Heaven - Summary

 In the OEM to Service business transformation data is key  Operating on the data to create information and knowledge  With risk shift from Customer to OEM in a Service model
has been demonstrated, including value, in a number of areas. EHM is risk mitigation, informing the Aftermarket business and helping to minimise unplanned events years, the next steps are much more complicated

 Basic EHM has been yielding good results for a number of

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Cranfield Integrated Vehicle Health Management Centre of Excellence

Vision
A world-class research and demonstration Centre of Excellence, seeking to establish industry standards and yielding competitive advantages in Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) for its industry members.

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Generic Architecture

Strategic Aims
Attract Investment supplement launch funding by attracting additional investment from new core partners/members and research funding bodies World Recognition working with industry and academic leaders Technology Transfer implementation of concepts and technologies within the industry and develop the associated skills base Self Sustaining after 5 years Delivery of Competitive Advantage to the key stakeholders

CoE Concept

Funding/ Governance

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http://www.cranfield.ac.uk/cua