Climate Change

Oversimplified but irrefutable: 1) Global temperatures are rising. 2) Many atmospheric pollutant levels are rising. 3) The pollutants that are rising help to trap heat.

Is Climate Changing?
Records since 1880 show hottest 10 years as: 2006 2005 1998 2002 2003 2006 2007 2004 2001 2008

Journals: Lakes/rivers freeze about 1 week later than 150 years ago Night temps increase more than day temps (gg s prevent escape of heat at night but don t affect incoming radiation during day) Point Barrow, AK has increasing thunderstorms: 3 in past 15 years (none documented prior)

Is Climate Changing ?(cont)

Coral reef bleaching Global glacial retreat Ex: Montana. Glacier National Park had 130+ glaciers. None left by 2030. Thinning of arctic ice: Declining arctic wildlife Climate extremes Still have very cold days, but the number of very hot days is increasing

Evidence of Past Climate a.k.a.: Proxy Measurements

Journals

Dear Diary

Glacier lengths Ice cores

Pollen deposits in lake sediment

Coral reefs

Natural Climate Change Events:

Random Events Volcanic Eruptions Asteroid Impacts Cosmic Radiation Tectonic Plate Fluctuations Regular Events 11- year sunspot cycles 22- year solar magnetic cycles 18.6 year lunar cycle affects tides, atmosphere Earth s tilt/Orbital fluctuations

5 Primary Skeptic Arguments

Cloud Effect Higher temperatures more evaporation more clouds. Clouds reflect sunlight. It ll cool us down. Glacial melt is normal Glaciers began retreating 150 years ago, before we began messing things up. It s Natural! This is natural, and we are insignificant. The changes are natural fluctuations. Human activities are too insignificant on a global scale. Computer models are flawed Models indicate our CO2 levels should be higher based on our f.f. use. If we can t even predict CO2 concentrations correctly, we can t predict what is happening with climate change. An Ice-Age is Coming We re going to need the heat. The past 8,000 years have been warm and stable. We re overdue. We ll be grateful for the extra CO2 warming.

Debate Activity:
Your group will be given one of the five primary skeptic arguments to refute. Your role: Educated environmentalist. My role: Devil s advocate . I play the skeptic who doesn t believe in climate change. Use textbook, notes, and internet research to reject my argument. You can use notes/graphs/etc. during our debate. I pick one member of your group to represent you. The score earned by that person is what is received by every member of the group. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=12 4008307&sc=emaf

Greenhouse Effect
We need some gg s to keep the planet warm. Without them, Earth would be uninhabitably cold. However: All things in moderation. We have too much. (Houdek springs into action with skillful artistry.)

Be Neighborly: Get to know your 5 GG s

Contribution toward climate change depends on 3 factors: 1. Abundance/quantity 2. Atmospheric Lifetime The amount of time required to restore equilibrium following an increase in the atmospheric concentration. The amount of time until a gg leaves the system. Over time, molecules are lost or deposited in soil, water, vegetation, biological systems, etc. 3. Global Warming Potential GWP Shows how much heat can be stored per molecule (ability to absorb radiation) Measures each gas against the GWP of CO2 (which is given the standard of 1 GWP )

5 Primary Greenhouse Gases

CO2 (Carbon Dioxide) CH4 (Methane)
Sources: Fossil fuel burning Sources: landfills (greatest), coal mines, rice paddies, cow farts Hydro-, Per-, Chloro- Fluorocarbons (H, P, C-FCs) and Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) The only gg with NO Natural Contribution.

Sources: ski wax, fishing line, formerly coolants and aerosols O3 (Ozone)
Sources: smog

N2O (Nitrous Oxide)

Sources: burning organics, f.f. burning, fertilizers

5 Primary Greenhouse Gases

CO2
Overall contribution: 50%

CH4
Overall Contribution: 18%

H, P, CFC, SF6
Overall Contribution: 15%

O3
Overall Contribution: 12%

N2O
Overall Contribution: 6%

History of CO2
1st record: 1957, Mauna Loa Hawaii monitoring station Discoveries: 1. Natural seasonal CO2 fluctuation. Seasonal plants take up CO2 in summer (CO2 low), dormant in winter (CO2 high). 2. Steady CO2 increase every year since then (confirmed world-wide) 3. Natural CO2 change: 0.0002 ppm/yr 4. Anthropogenic CO2 change: 2-3 ppm/yr

BLACK Carbon (soot)

What s the problem? Low albedo soot particles float in air (lowering albedo of air) and land on stuff (lowering albedo of exposed surface materials). Sources: diesel engines, open cook stoves, wood burning, forest fires Source locations: developing countries (esp. India, China) Atmospheric Lifetime: about a month Control technologies: retrofit engines to capture black carbon, use nat gas instead of diesel, replace open cook stoves with solar cookers or more efficient cook stoves Potential benefits: Prompt reduction of climate change, improved air quality, lung/health improvement

Manipulation of Data
Analyze the following graph. Look for: Evidence of wordplay/exaggeration of evidence Biased interpretation of data Manipulative use of graph tools

Plants need CO2

Why do we care? Effects.

Biodiversity and ecosystem loss (ex: coral reefs) Species extinction (ex: Islands in the sky loss of high altitude climates) Loss of terrestrial glaciers = loss of drinking water (glacial melt provides water) Incr. disease. Mosquito population as major vector. Ocean acidification (CO2 + H2O = H2CO3 .carbonic acid) Precipitation/weather pattern changes war/conflict over water, resources and viable land Sea level rise. Millions will migrate, esp. India & China.
Developing nations will be the hardest hit and least financially able to adapt

Largest changes will be seen in the arctic:

Albedo change from glacier tundra initiates a positive feedback loop Thermohaline circulation disruption

Thermohaline Circulation/Ocean Conveyor

Term for the interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere. It moderates earth s climates. Currents transport warm water from the equator poles and cold water from the poles equator. The process is driven by 2 marine variables: 1.Temperature (cold poles, warm equator) 2.Salinity (saltier poles, waterier equator)

Thermohaline Circulation cont.

Prior to climate change: Tropics: Surface water is warmed by the sun and diluted by rainwater and runoff Poles: Cold and dense surface water sinks and draws up warm water (from the equator) to replace it Future potential conditions: Tropics: Getting saltier due to increased temps which increase evaporation Poles: Getting waterier due to glacial melt and precipitation increases at high latitudes the salinity gradient which drives circulation is diminishing

If the system stops

Its moderating effect will cease Equator will be hotter Poles will be colder (potential to trigger ice age)

Mechanisms for g.g. Control: Cap and Trade

Principle: A government sets a limit (cap) on the amount of a pollutant that can be emitted by an industry. Effect: Companies that emit more pollution must buy credits from those who pollute less The buyer pays a charge to pollute (--> financial incentive to install emissions reduction equipment) The seller is rewarded for having reduced emissions

Cap and Trade cont.

Cap and Trade (cont)

Acid Rain Cap and Trade Program Program details: Addressed SO2 and NOx emissions Began in 1990 with the Clean Air Act Results: Reduced emissions faster and cheaper than anticipated By the year 2002: SOx emissions were 9% lower than in 2000 NOx emissions were 13% lower than in 2000

Psychology of the Climate Change Issue

In a group of 3-4, develop a list of reasons why some people don t believe in climate change. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.ph p?storyId=121105095

Kyoto Protocol
Set a Cap and Trade system for developed nations to reduce g.g. emissions Nations could sell emissions between countries Poorer, developing nations (ex: India) exempt. Reasoning: Wealthy countries made the mess, they should clean it Would place undue financial burden on economy of a developing nation
July, 2001, 178 nations agreed to regulate CO2, CH4 and N2O Not us! Reasoning: 1. India and China didn t, so we won t. 2. Bush re: Kyoto we re going to put the interests of our own country first and foremost 3. Due to our lifestyle, would have required a 40% reduction in energy consumption

Copehagen Summit

FAIL
The countries approved a 5-page document that recognizes the need to limit global temperatures from rising no more than 2o Celsius over 10 years, but doesn't require countries to take measures to address climate change. Ended in everyone pointing fingers at everyone else Widely considered to be a failure.

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Affects a sloshy bathtub of warm water between Indonesia and South America
Most Years: More water is in the west Pacific due to westerly winds Results in: 1. Torrential rain (ex: monsoons) in Australia and SE Asia 2. Dry wind and deserts from Chile to S. California El Nino Years: Change in pressure, ocean temperature and wind direction to an easterly direction produces unusually warm waters in equatorial Pacific Happens every 3-5 years, lasts a few months to 1 year or more Dramatically increased rainfall in southern U.S. and Peru Drought in west Pacific, Australia

How does El Nino relate to climate change?

Studies of 130,000 year old coral indicate ENSO events are becoming: More irregular Stronger Warm ocean temperatures are spreading Warm water spawns hurricanes, typhoons, coral reef bleaching, marine life death La Nina Characterized by unusally cold waters in the equatorial Pacific

The Future
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The panel of international scientists who evaluate the risks of anthropogenic climate change

Projected temperature increases:

1.1 - 4.4o C by 2100 (the last ice age was 5oC colder)

Scenarios B.A.U. Business as Usual (red)

Scenarios: Why don t we know?

Each scenario attempts to project variables such as: Population declining, stable or growing? By how much? Continued reliance on f.f. s? (coal is cheap!) Incorporation of renewable energy? By how much? Heterogenous (haves vs have-nots)world? More equitable, resource-homogenized world? How much? Non-linear feedback loops (increasing at an increasing rate), positive feedback loops

Greatest changes to be seen in the Arctic

Permafrost soil is made of swampy, boggy, high CO2 and CH4 soils It s no longer perma it s thawing. Melting of terrestrial glaciers and ice reveal dark underlying tundra much lower albedo -->creates positive feedback loop Thawing of permafrost soils could release more CO2 than all of the fossil fuels ever burned, another positive feedback loop. Aquatic glaciers also have a higher albedo than ocean melting creates more positive feedback

How to Cool the Planet

Aerosols (ex: PM liquids/solids, sulfates, dust, sea salt, black carbon, volcanic ash)
High albedo aerosol particles (esp sulfates) whiten clouds Low albedo aerosol particles (esp black carbon) darken atmosphere Aerosols can turn ordinarily large, dark droplets in clouds into many smaller, whiter droplets which reflect light better Sometimes produce more cloud precip, sometimes produce less. (Poorly understood at this time)

How to cool the planet (continued)

Volcanic eruptions Increase g.g. emissions cost Government regulation Subsidies
Make renewable energy less expensive than coal energy

Efficiency/mileage standards Cap and trade

Cool the Planet (cont.)

Efficiency incentives
Energy Guide, Energy Star

De-couple climate science from politics! Buy green power Building design (deciduous trees on S. side of structures) Research and Development Education

VS

Cool Planet (cont.): Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS)

Carbon Sequestration the process of capturing atmospheric C in fixed sites.
Ex: geological sequestration, agricultural sequestration Concerns re: leakage, effect of CO2 on geology Technology is ~8 yrs away

Stabilization Wedge (use a portfolio of mitigation strategies)

Stabilization Wedge Options (pick 7)

Vehicle efficiency Improve mass transit More efficient buildings (windows, walls, doors) Reduce deforestation, replant Conservation tillage (slow soil erosion, draw CO2 into soil) Build wind farms Build solar panels (various options) Improve coal efficiency Replace coal plants with natural gas Carbon Sequestration Nuclear power Biomass fuels (from waste biomass) Wind generated hydrogen for fuel cell cars

Skeptic Argument Rebuttals

Facts that apply to all of the arguments:
Pollution of the environment is harmful for reasons other than just climate change Intergenerational equity and obligation. Burdening our descendents with our responsibilities is unethical Inertia of Planetary Systems it takes a lot of input to disturb the earth s systems ( overwhelm the buffers ), it will take a lot of input to re-correct the warming trend. A.K.A. Pipeline Effect

Cloud Effect Higher air temperatures require increased water vapor to form clouds. (Therefore, there will not necessarily be more clouds) Clouds insulate as well as reflect (prepare the pencils!)

Skeptic Argument Rebuttals (cont)

Glacial Retreat
Glacial retreat has been accelerating its pace since the industrial revolution, and esp. since 1950 Dwindling terrestrial glaciers threaten drinking water supplies Sea level is rising ~3 cm per decade Aquatic and polar habitats are being disrupted Melt of aquatic glaciers disrupts thermohaline circulation

Natural Fluctuations
Proxy measurements of CO2 concentrations indicate levels have never been as high Temperature and CO2 have a direct relationship (*3 irrefutable facts) The ozone hole demonstrates we are fully capable of affecting planetary systems

Skeptic Argument Rebuttals (cont)

An Ice Age is Coming
Climate change is an immediate problem. Ice ages are unpredictable, may not come for 1,000s of years Due to thermohaline circulation problems, warming may actually trigger an ice age reducing available cropland and alter precipitation patters (agriculture is based on those patterns)

Computer modeling
All models indicate CO2 and temp increase Overall upward trend is the point We rely on computer models daily (traffic patterns, weather, flight simulators, etc). The imperfections in climate change modeling do not render it worthless.

Related Issue: Climategate/Swifthack

November, 2009, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich, England 1,000 emails, 3,000 other documents illegally stolen Criticism focused on ~6 emails Summary findings by objective analysts (AP and peerreviewers) determined: 1. Scientists had made an effort to withhold unsupportive scientific details from climate skeptics, but those details were minor in relation to all compiled and crossreferenced data
claims by climate skeptics that the emails demonstrated scientific misconduct amounting to fabrication of global warming were unfounded, and emails were being misrepresented to support these claims. No scientific organizations have reversed their position that climate change is anthropogenic and an immediate concern.

Climategate/Swifthack (cont)
2. A few emails referred to deletion of emails and withholding of data - Review of files determined that no information was deleted 3. Scientists had used the word trick in an easily misrepresented context:
"I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie, from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith's to hide the decline. The trick was combining proxy records with actual temperature records. Proxy readings are substituted with actual readings for available years. The decline refers to a phenomenon called divergence . Tree ring data (proxy) conflicts with actual temp data in far N. Hemisph trees. Trees in the rest of the world do not exhibit divergence Ice cores and lake sediments do not exhibit divergence