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Introduction The Black-Scholes option pricing model Calculating Black-Scholes prices from historical data Implied volatility Using Black-Scholes to solve for the put premium Problems using the Black-Scholes model
Introduction
The Black-Scholes option pricing model (BSOPM) has been one of the most important developments in finance in the last 50 years
Has provided a good understanding of what options should sell for Has made options more attractive to individual and institutional investors
The model Development and assumptions of the model Determinants of the option premium Assumptions of the Black-Scholes model Intuition into the Black-Scholes model
The Model
C ! SN (d1 ) Ke RT N (d 2 ) where W2 S T ln R 2 K W T
d1 ! and
d 2 ! d1 W T
Variable definitions:
S K e R T W = = = = = = current stock price option strike price base of natural logarithms riskless interest rate time until option expiration standard deviation (sigma) of returns on the underlying security natural logarithm
Derivation from:
Fischer Black and Myron Scholes utilized the physics heat transfer equation to develop the BSOPM
Striking price Time until expiration Stock price Volatility Dividends Risk-free interest rate
Striking Price
The lower the striking price for a given stock, the more the option should be worth
The longer the time until expiration, the more the option is worth
The option premium increases for more distant expirations for puts and calls
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Stock Price
The higher the stock price, the more a given call option is worth
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Volatility
The greater the price volatility, the more the option is worth
The volatility estimate sigma cannot be directly observed and must be estimated Volatility plays a major role in determining time value
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Dividends
A company that pays a large dividend will have a smaller option premium than a company with a lower dividend, everything else being equal
Listed options do not adjust for cash dividends The stock price falls on the ex-dividend date
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The higher the risk-free interest rate, the higher the option premium, everything else being equal
A higher discount rate means that the call premium must rise for the put/call parity equation to hold
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The stock pays no dividends during the options life European exercise style Markets are efficient No transaction costs Interest rates remain constant Prices are lognormally distributed
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If you apply the BSOPM to two securities, one with no dividends and the other with a dividend yield, the model will predict the same call premium
Robert Merton developed a simple extension to the BSOPM to account for the payment of dividends
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* d 2 ! d1* W T
American options are more valuable than European options Few options are exercised early due to time value
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People cannot predict the direction of the market or of an individual stock Put/call parity implies that you and everyone else will agree on the option premium, regardless of whether you are bullish or bearish
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No Transaction Costs
Not true Causes slightly different actual option prices for different market participants
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Often the 30-day T-bill rate is used Must look for ways to value options when the parameters of the traditional BSOPM are unknown or dynamic
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One gives a pseudo-probability weighted expected stock price (an inflow) One gives the time-value of money adjusted expected payment at exercise (an outflow)
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C ! SN (d1 )
Ke
RT
N (d 2 )
Cash Inflow
Cash Outflow
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The value of a call option is the difference between the expected benefit from acquiring the stock outright and paying the exercise price on expiration day
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To calculate the theoretical value of a call option using the BSOPM, we need:
The stock price The option striking price The time until expiration The riskless interest rate The volatility of the stock
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C ! SN (d1 ) Ke ! $7.04
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RT
N (d 2 )
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Implied Volatility
Introduction Calculating implied volatility An implied volatility heuristic Historical versus implied volatility Pricing in volatility units Volatility smiles
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Introduction
Instead of solving for the call premium, assume the market-determined call premium is correct
Then solve for the volatility that makes the equation hold This value is called the implied volatility
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For an exactly at-the-money call, the correct value of implied volatility is:
W implied
0.5(C P ) 2T / T ! T K /(1 R )
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The volatility from a past series of prices is historical volatility Implied volatility gives an estimate of what the market thinks about likely volatility in the future
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Clear evidence of a relation between the standard deviation of returns over the past month and the current level of implied volatility That the current level of implied volatility contains both an ex post component based on actual past volatility and an ex ante component based on the markets forecast of future variance
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You cannot directly compare the dollar cost of two different options because
Options have different degrees of moneyness A more distant expiration means more time value The levels of the stock prices are different
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Volatility Smiles
Volatility smiles are in contradiction to the BSOPM, which assumes constant volatility across all strike prices
When you plot implied volatility against striking prices, the resulting graph often looks like a smile
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40
30
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0 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105
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Striking Price
P ! Ke
RT
N ( d 2 ) SN ( d1 )
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Does not work well with options that are deep-in-the-money or substantially out-ofthe-money Produces biased values for very low or very high volatility stocks
May yield unreasonable values when an option has only a few days of life remaining
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