Future of Development and Development Cooperation

Lawrence Haddad Institute of Development Studies, UK

 Growth is good Focus on poor countries Material well being MDGs Aid/Charity Problems over there, Solutions over here

Development in Transition

 Growth is good Focus on poor countries Material well being MDGs Aid/Charity Problems over there, Solutions over here

Growth is sometimes good

Growth: highly variable effects on

Poverty
Growth by sector Growth by inequality Growth by region Growth by governance regime

Impacts on ecological footprints Wellbeing But there are choices

7 February 2012

National: Poverty down by 12% survey

Rwandan poverty rates decline from 57% to 45% between 2006 and 2011

 Growth is good Focus on poor countries Material well being MDGs Aid/Charity Problems over there, Solutions over here

Growth is sometimes good Focus on poor people

Large countries are back in the growth game

and ODA is focusing on fewer poor countries

Future IDA Graduates?
IDA 16/17 Angola, Armenia, Bhutan, Bolivia, Bos&Herz, Congo, Djibouti, Georgia, Guyana, Honduras, Moldova, Mongolia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Uzbekistan, Cameroon, India, Nigeria, Vietnam, Yemen, Zambia Cote dIvoire, Kenya, Kyrgyz Rep, Laos, Mauritania, PNG / Cambodia, Ghana, Lesotho, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Senegal, Tajikistan Bangladesh, Benin

IDA 18/19

IDA 20/21

DFID Bilateral Graduates: 43 in 2011, to 27 in 2016

Moss, Todd and Benjamin Leo. 2011. IDA at 65: Heading Toward Retirement or a Fragile Lease on Life? Center for Global Development, Working Paper 246, March.

But 70% numbers in poverty 1998-2007 Figure 4: Changes in of the worlds poor live in middle income countries
683

(millions)

455 451

210 159

199 212 146 18 102 146

212

low fragile

low non fragile

middle fragile
1988-90

middle nonfragile
2007-08

india

china

From data in Sumner 2010

 Growth is good Focus on poor countries Material well being MDGs Aid/Charity Problems over there, Solutions over here

Growth is sometimes good Focus on poor people More rounded view of well being

Measurement matters: MPI vs $1.25 /day

Source: OPHI 2010

UK

Happiness and GDP/cap PPP

Japan=Philippines on happiness Russia=Mexico on GDP/cap

 Growth is Good Focus on poor countries Material well being MDGs Aid/Charity Problems over there, Solutions over here

Growth is sometimes good Focus on poor people More rounded view of well being GDGs

Problems with MDGs

Not focused on Sustainable Global Management Exclude Rich Countries Weak Accountability Top Down Clunky for advocacy

Commitment to reduce hunger and hunger status?

COMMITMENT TO REDUCE HUNGER Low
HUNGER STATUS (GHI 2010) Moderate Serious Alarming

Extremely Alarming

Low

Nepal Lesotho

Rwanda Mozambique Guinea Bissau Zambia Bangladesh India Burundi

Medium

Ghana China

Kenya Nigeria Senegal Malawi Guatemala Gambia

High

Brazil

Ethiopia Tanzania

Measuring the commitment to reduce hunger

Country Government expenditure rank Policies and programmes rank HRCI (1 is best)

Denmark
Finland Belgium Ireland Norway France United Kingdom Australia Netherlands Spain Germany South Korea Japan Canada Greece Sweden Italy USA Austria Switzerland New Zealand Portugal

3
6 9 5 2 11 14 16 10 4 12 23 8 13 21 7 22 18 20 15 17 19

4
9 7 11 15 6 3 2 8 14 10 1 17 13 5 19 12 18 16 22 20 21

1
2 3 3 5 5 5 8 8 8 11 12 13 14 14 14 17 18 18 20 20 22

Source: IDS at hrcindex.org

Japans current proposal for post-2015 framework

 Growth is Good Focus on poor countries Material well being MDGs Aid/Charity Problems over there, Solutions over here

Growth is sometimes good Focus on poor people More rounded view of well being GDGs Beyond Aid/Charity

The Trinity of goals needs to be achieved

Sustainable Global Management

Donor countrys national interests

MDG and Poverty reduction

High belief in interconnectedness

Solidarity High altruism Charity

Cooperation as needed Go it alone

Low altruism

Low belief in interconnectedness

 Growth is Good Focus on poor countries Material well being MDGs Aid/Charity Problems over there, Solutions over here

Growth is sometimes good Focus on poor people More rounded view of well being GDGs Beyond Aid/Charity Problems & Solutions everywhere

Solutions from the South

Finding Solutions
High external validity

Nirvana
Theory of Change Snake oil salesman What actually happens Keep D-i-D Explore portability

High internal validity

Low internal validity

Well, it works here!

Many ODA & private sector evaluations?

Low external validity

How to get at What Actually Happens? Fix the broken feedback loop: talk to people who are supposed to be benefitting

Conclusion
Need to prepare for brave new world in the second sphere while addressing the first sphere no time to wait. Preparation for the second will also help us address the problems of the first sphere.

Growth is good Focus on poor countries Material well being MDGs Aid/Charity Problems over there, Solutions over here

Growth is sometimes good Focus on poor people More rounded view of well being GDGs Beyond Aid/Charity Problems & Solutions everywhere

Arigatou gozaimasu!