International Trends in Environmental Regulations for Vehicles

Major Global Trends

Environmental Concerns Increasing
Particles Global Warming

Cleaner and Cleaner Technologies Entering Marketplace

Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles Passenger Cars Motorcycles

Cleaner Fuels Increasingly Critical

Sulfur Levels Approaching Zero Lead Almost Gone; MMT Increasing Concern

World Motor Vehicle Population

Millions 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1930 Motorcycles Commercial Vehicles Cars

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Calendar Year

Growth of Vehicle Population in Shanghai, 1988-2002

Most Vehicles Are In Cities

E:\Changhong CHEN\\\\\.xls

One Result: Serious Health Concerns

WHO Concludes ~ 800,000 Premature Deaths Each Year From Urban PM Numerous Studies Consistently Link PM With Premature Deaths, Hospital Admissions, Asthma Attacks, Etc. No Evidence of a Threshold Ozone, NO2, Various Toxics Also Serious Health Concerns
5

PM10 in Major cities

Slide 6

Source: Cohen et al, 2005

Background
Energy Demand in the Transport Sector: Annual Average Growth Rate (%) by Region 2004 - 2030

5
Growth (% p.a.) 4 3 2 1 0

In 2004, 94 % of transport energy based on fossil oil. The share will only slightly decrease to 93 % in 2030.

Source: IEA WEO 2006

Carbon Dioxide is Not The Whole Story!

Transportation sector priorities

3 key interventions

Fuel-efficient, low Emitting cars Low-carbon fuels Reduced vehicle-miles traveled through
congestion pricing, Bus Rapid Transit, etc.

~60

4
>30 Target Unknown mitigation Known mitigation ~25

4 3
4

5 6 4 4 3 4 5

5
2030 BAU emissions Power

Industry Buildings Transport Forestry Agriculture/ 2030 waste/ mitigation other potential

Technology Capable of Cleaning Vehicle Emissions Has Improved Dramatically in the Past 30-40 Years

EU and US Passenger Car Exhaust Emissions Standards

NOx Emissions Standards Grams/Kilometer 5

US Gasoline US Diesel

EU Gasoline EU Diesel

0 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

The Three-way Catalytic Converter: A Familiar Technology Re-Engineered for High Performance in Close-coupled and Underfloor Applications
Layered washcoat architectures and support materials with high thermal stability Integrated HC adsorption functions Mounting materials with improved durability High cell density ceramic or metallic substrates Insulation schemes for heat management

Maximum Emissions Performance Is Only Achieved With Near Zero Sulfur Fuel

Diesel Particulate Filters

Reductions:

Trapped PM

-80 to 95% PM

Cell Plugs -80-100% HC, CO

-80%+ toxins

Exhaust (CO2, H2O) Out

Exhaust (PM, CO, HC) Enter

Issues to balance: sulfate formation regeneration and back pressure Fuel Economy

Ceramic Honeycomb Wall

How The Trap Functions

Typical engine exhaust mass and number weighted size distributions shown with alveolar deposition
0.2 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 Fractional deposition of particle with density of 1 g/um

Normalized Concentration, dC/C total /dlogDp

Nanoparticles Dp < 50 nm Ultrafine Particles Dp < 100 nm

Fine Particles Dp < 2.5 m

1 0.9

0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2

Nuclei Mode

Accumulation Mode

Coarse Mode

0.1 0

0.001

0.010

0.100 Diameter (m)

1.000

10.000

Mass Weighting

Number Weighting

Alveolar Deposition Fraction

Alveolar Deposition Fraction

0.8 PM10 Dp < 10 m

Comparison of Particle Emissions from from non grey.. SMPS.7: All Vehicles and Fuels - 50kph
1.00E+13

Conventional Diesels
1.00E+12
Conventional Diesel

log scale [Particles/km]

1.00E+11

1.00E+10

Direct Injection Gasoline

G-DI

1.00E+09

Gasoline and LPG

MPI and LPG Gasoline

1.00E+08

1.00E+07

1.00E+06 1 10

Trap Equipped Diesels

100 1000

Current DPF Applications

Millions of cars are equipped with DPF around world

16

SCR Solution System Architecture

Air Solenoid

Air Tank

Urea Sensor

Dosing Unit
J1939 (Public)

Urea Tank

SCR Control

SCR Connector

ECM
Engine

Catalyst Input Temperature

Catalyst Output Temperature

Exhaust Gas Processor

Emissions control system for Euro VI

Oxidation catalyst (DOC), catalyst-based particulate filter and urea-SCR with ammonia slip catalyst (ASC).

NOx sensor

(optional) NOx sensor

DOC

Mixer

SCR + ASC

18

Near-Zero Emission Vehicles

BMW 325i Mitsubishi Galant Nissan Altima

Chrysler Sebring
Ford Focus Ford Fusion Ford Escape HEV

Nissan Sentra
Subaru Outback Toyota Camry Toyota Prius HEV

Honda Accord
Honda Civic HEV Honda insight HEV Hyundai Elantra

VW Jetta
Volvo S40

Kia Spectra
Mazda 3 Mazda 6

ZEV Technology Review - CARB

Which Countries Are Getting Clean Technologies?

Clean Fuels Stringent Standards Including Advanced Technology Mandates Strong Incentives
Economic Other

Global Vision For 2015

Every New Diesel Has PM Filter & Low NOx Gasoline Vehicles Approaching ZERO Emissions Hybrid Technologies (Including Plug In Hybrids) Are Mature, Widespread Technology Small Battery Electric Vehicles (City) Vehicles Widely Used Fuel Cell Vehicle Numbers Increasing

What Is The Situation Today in Santiago

Good Fuel Quality < 50 PPM Sulfur But Not Taking Advantage of This To Introduce Diesel Filters Widely Should Be Highest Priority Much Cleaner Gasoline Vehicles Are Feasible, Especially With Low S in 2009 Incentives For Hybrids Could Be Expanded

A Short Term Plan For Santiago

Tighten Requirements Sufficiently To Require PM Filters on New Diesel Cars and Buses Lower Diesel Sulfur to 10/15 PPM Introduce Euro 5 or Tier 2 Bin 5 for All New Cars and Light Trucks Introduce Euro 3 For Motorcycles Implement ASM Based Centralized I/M For All Light Duty Vehicles

EU and US Light Duty Gasoline and Diesel Vehicle Standards

Grams/Km 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 Euro 4 2005 Euro 6 2014/15 ARB SULEV Euro 5 2009/10 US Tier 2 Avg Gasoline NOx Diesel NOx Diesel PMx10

Euro 5+ and Euro 6 Will Include 6X1011 /km Particle Number Limit

Comparison of NOx and PM regulations for HD diesel vehicle among Japan, USA and Europe

0.3

1997 JAPAN

PM g/kWh

0.2 0.1
2007 US 2005 JAPAN 2004 US 2008 EURO5

2003 JAPAN

2000 EURO3 1998 US

2005 EURO4

0.0
2009 JAPAN Challenging value

2009 JAPAN

NOx g/kWh

Reconciling the Diesel Engine With the Environment:

A Comprehensive Approach Highway

Common Aspects-2007/2010 Heavy-duty (2001)

Systems approach fuel change enables clean technologies Large environmental benefits Responsive to needs of States to meet air quality goals Collaborative process

Tier 2 Light-duty (1999)

Nonroad

Locomotive/Marine

Tier 4 diesel (2004)

Highway + Nonroad Diesel Fuel Sulfur Specs*

HWY NR
10/1993 06/2006 6/2007 01/2010 6/2010 6/2012 6/2014

Highway Diesel 500ppm All Diesel ~3400 ppm

>80% 15 ppm

All Highway 15 ppm

NR 15 ppm
<20% 500 ppm NR, L&M Diesel 500 ppm All Off-Highway Diesel ~3400 ppm
Small & Credit ~3400 L&M 500 ppm

L&M 15ppm
Small 15 ppm

Small & Credit 500 ppm

HHF ~3400ppm

HHF ~3400ppm

* This figure is intended to illustrate the timeline for the final highway and nonroad diesel fuel sulfur control programs. It is not drawn to exact scale. Refer to 40 CFR Part 80 for specific program dates.

Health Benefits Are Tremendous!

premature deaths

chronic bronchitis

hospital admissions
lost work days 0 10,000 20,000 over 3 million 30,000 40,000

number prevented annually (in 2030)

The Benefits Far Outweigh The Costs

Tier 2 Light-duty Highway

cost benefit

Total Cost: $11 billion Total Benefits: $175 billion

2007 Heavy-duty Highway

Tier 4 Nonroad

20

40

60

80

$ Billion Annually in 2030

100 40,000

ZEV Program (2012 2014)

10% Mandate 42% by volume

Current ZEV Program

30 %

PZEV

~1%

2% 11%
ZEV

AT PZEV

ZEV Program

India

Vehicle population growth in India

500
3 2 1 0

400 300 200 100 Class 0

Million Vehicles
1

by 2025

5x

2005 2008 2015 2025 2035

35.8 2.3 2.4 2.4 6.2 49.1 46.1 3.0 2.9 3.2 8.8 63.9 87.7 5.3 4.6 5.7 18.0 121.3 174.1 8.8 9.1 12.5 41.6 246.1 236.4 13.1 16.2 26.9 80.1 372.7

6.7 x
by 2025

2-W 3-W HCV LCV Car, SUV Grand Total

Vehicle Population Projection from Segment Y plc See: http://segmenty.com

Worldwide Motorcycle Emission Regulations

Japan China Europe
EU II (2003) ECE40 Cold Start HC: 1.0 NOx:0.3 CO: 3.0 EU III (2006) HC: 0.8 NOx:0.15 CO: 2.0 30,000 km II Stage (2004) ECE40 HC: 1.2 NOx:0.3 CO: 5.5 10,000 km (2006/2007) ECE40 Cold Start HC: 0.3/0.5 NOx:0.15 CO: 2.0 12,000/24,000 km

India
II Stage (2005) IDC Cold Start HC+NOx:1.5 CO: 1.5 30,000 km III Stage (2008) HC+NOx:1.0~1.25 CO: 1.0~1.25

Taiwan
IV Stage (2004) ECE40 Cold Start HC+NOx:2.0 CO: 7.0 15,000 km

Life-cycle Emission Control

Certification Conformity of Production New Vehicle selective enforcement audit Recall Program I/M Program (annual idle test, roadside idle test), etc.
4th year

Retiring old and purchasing injection motorcycle

Incentive Policy Vehicle End-of-Life Dismantling

New Vehicle Development

Vehicle in Warranty

Note: I/M (Inspection and Maintenance)

The Current Situation in Santiago

Fuel Quality
Gasoline 15 PPM Sulfur in 2009 Diesel 50 PPM Sulfur; 15 PPM in ?

Light Duty Vehicles

Gasoline US Tier 1 or Euro 3 Diesel CA Tier 1 or Euro 4

Medium Duty Vehicles

Tier 1 or Euro 3

Heavy Duty Bus and Truck

US EPA 98 or Euro III

Resultados homologacin diesel EURO IV por modelo

M.P.
0.025

EURO IV

0.020

0.015

0.010

0.005

EURO V

0.000

Resultados homologacin diesel EURO IV por modelo

Diesel livianos Euro IV - NOx
0.300 0.250 0.200

EURO IV

EURO V
0.150 0.100 0.050 0.000

Resultados homologacin EPA por modelo grs/km (CO y HC)

Tier 0, Tier 2 Bin 5

Modelos homologados bajo normas EPA (6 de los 10 modelos ms vendidos)

Tier 0 Corsa Plus homologado Euro

Resultados homologacin EPA por modelo gr/km (Nox)

Tier 1

Tier 2 Bin 8 Tier 2 Bin 5

Motorcycles Increasing Rapidly

Distribucion Anual de las Importaciones de Motocicletas ( Partida 8711.) por Mercado y Cantidad ( U ), Perodo Ene 2005 - Dic 2007

110,000

90,000 Cantidad ( U )

70,000

50,000

30,000

10,000

-10,000 2005 2006 Aos de Importacin 2007

ASIATICO

AMERICANO

EUROPEO

OTROS

Bellagio Principles
Design Programs & Policies That Reduce Conventional, Toxic, Noise and Greenhouse Emissions in Parallel Treat Vehicles and Fuels As A System New Vehicle Standards for Greenhouse Emissions & Conventional Pollutants Should Be Fuel Neutral Expect & Require Best Technologies and Fuels Worldwide in Both Industrialized and Developing Countries

WWW.THEICCT.ORG

Priority #1: Reduce Diesel PM

New Light Duty Diesel Fueled Vehicles (Cars and Medium Trucks) Should Meet
Tier 2 Bin 5 in 2010, or Euro 5 in 2010

New Buses Should Meet Euro III Plus Diesel Particulate Filter; After 10/15 PPM Sulfur Fuel is Available, Either:
US EPA 2010 or Euro VI

New Diesel Trucks

City Trucks (Sticker Enforced)
Euro III Plus Diesel Particulate Filter

National Trucks
Euro IV Standards

International Trucks
Euro III Standards

Priority #2: Reduce NOx, Other Toxic Emissions

Light Duty Gasoline Fueled Vehicles Should Meet Either
Tier 2 bin 5 in 2010 or Euro 5 in 2010

Motorcycles Adopt Euro 3 Standards by 2010

Priority #3: Improve Fuel Quality

Reduce Sulfur in Diesel Fuel to 10/15 PPM

Priority #4: Implement I/M

ASM Loaded Test Procedure Throughout Santiago Centralized Testing Facilities Gradually Tighter In Use Standards

Priority #5: Incentivize Advanced Technologies

Currently: Hybrids Get Immunity From Annual Tax For Several Years Shows Great Leadership!