Expert System

An EXPERT SYSTEM is a computer program that exhibits Expert Level performance in solving complex problems. Reasons with Facts about the World:
Combines General Facts/Rules (about Diseases, ...) with Specific Facts (about Patient) to Produce new Conclusion (diagnosis)
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Story
MD sees patient perhaps MENINGITIS!
Performs standard tests Calls Infection Disease (medical) expert

Dialogue:

Expert asks for info re: patient

Fever, Organism Morphology, Gram Stain, Spinal Fluid,

Doctor's answers:

DIRECT : from direct measurement, Lab tests Qualitative : Has HIGH fever Vague : Portal of Entry was GastroIntestinal (w/certainty 0.6) Unknown : dont know identity of organism?
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Story cont
MD can ask questions:
Why ask about portal of entry? Expert answers:
trying to show infecting organism is ENTEROBACTERICAE this information is crucial in that decision.

If further questioned, point to definitive study

Expert provides DIAGNOSIS Happily ever after...

organism was one of {E.coli, Enterobacteria } suggest TREATMENT: Give GENTAMICIN

The Catch

Expert System
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Medical Expert Systems

MYCIN
Blood Infections

Digitalis advisor

Erratic Heartbeat Ventilator Management Ventricle Movement Cancer Treatment Protocols

CADUCEUS
Internal Medicine

VM

CASNET
Glaucoma

ALVEN

Present lllness Program

Kidney

ONCOCIN

Declarative Programming''
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Give true? Is Gentamycin? Knowledge Base

--- -- --- ---- --- - -- --- - --- ------ -- --- -Facts about the world -- ---- --- ---- ----- - ----- -- ----- -- --- - -

Proof Procedure Yes No

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Advantages of Framework
Simply store truths Information is
Modular
Easy to Build Easy to Modify (Extend, Debug) Capable of Explanation

ask for other truths

Declarative
Re-use same info for different tasks
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Computers Manipulate SYMBOLS

Numbers
3, 5, ... Addition, Multiplication, ...

Propositions

D1 is an inverter'' Inverters flip bits'' ... Deduction, ...

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Simple Deduction
Socrates is a man. If Socrates is a man, Then Socrates is mortal.

Socrates is mortal.
In general
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Example of Deduction
(Goal)

Socrates is Mortal
R1 (New Goal)

ase B ge led ow Kn

Socrates is a Man FACTS

o o F1: Socrates is a Man.

RULES
R1: If Socrates is a Man, Then Socrates is Mortal o
o

o
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Example of Deduction, #2
R2

Plato is Mortal

R1

Plato is a Cat
R3

Plato is a Man

Plato purrs RULES

R1: If Plato is a Man, Then Plato is Mortal R2: If Plato is a Cat Then Plato is Mortal. R3: If Plato purrs, Then Plato is a Cat.

FACTS
o o F3: Plato purrs. o o o

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Example of Deduction, #3
Aristotle is a man
R9

Aristotle is a Human RULES

R2: If Plato is a Cat Then Plato is Mortal. o R9: If Aristotle is a human and Aristotle is male, Then Aristotle is a man o

Aristotle is male FACTS

o o F3: Aristotle is male. o F8: Aristotle is a human o

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Oversimplified Proof Process

1. If Goal = FACT i
then DONE Else

YES

1. Goali = Then Part of Rule R

then Goal i+1

If Part of R

else DONE NO
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Just Manipulating Symbols

Consider claim
This is Belgium.

Conclusion is wrong!
Conclusion is ONLY AS TRUE as PREMISES If Premises true, then Conclusion is.

based on proof
Today is Tuesday. If Today is Tuesday Then This is Belgium. This is Belgium

Not fault of PROOF process GIGO

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Rules
R1: if You have a Parking Permit & (2) This space is Permit-Parkable, then You can park at this space.
(1)

R2: if (1) This space is a Parking Space & (2) Permit-Sign at this space & (3) Current date is Acceptable, then This space is Permit-Parkable. R3: if (1) Current time is 7am-Midnight & (2) This space is Permit-Parkable, then You can park at this space. R4: if (1) Current month is Dec-Mar, then Current date is Acceptable. R5: if Current month is in Apr-Nov & (2) Current day of month is 15 then Current date is Acceptable.
(1)

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Facts
This space is a Parking Space. You live near this space. You have a Parking Permit. Current month is in Apr-Nov. Current day is Tuesday. Current day of month is 15. Permit-Sign at this space. You own a car. Your car is >5 years old. Current time is 3am. You have $18.00. ...

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Inference Graph
You can park at this space R1 You have a Parking Permit This space is Permit-Parkable R2 Parking Space Current date is Acceptable R5 Apr-Nov 15

Permit-Sign

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Additional Rules
R1: if You have a Parking Permit & (2) This space is Permit-Parkable, then You can park at this space.
(1)

R2: if (1) This space is a Parking Space & (2) Permit-Sign at this space & (3) Current date is Acceptable, then This space is Permit-Parkable. R3: if (1) Current time is 7am-Midnight & (2) This space is Permit-Parkable, then You can park at this space. R4: if (1) Current month is Dec-Mar, then Current date is Acceptable. R5: if &
(1) (2)

R7: if (1) You live near this space & (2) You own a car & (3) You apply for a permit, then You have a Parking Permit. R8: if (1) You can park at this space then You can take a car.

Current month is in Apr-Nov

Current day of month is 15 then Current date is Acceptable.

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Inference Graph
You can take a car R8 You can park at this space R1 You have a Parking Permit R7 live near apply for permit This space is Permit-Parkable R2 Parking Space Current date is Acceptable R5 Apr-Nov 15

Permit-Sign

own a car

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Mycin: What is the suspected portal of entry of ORGANISM1 into this sterile site?

Doctor: WHY Mycin: [ie, why is it important to determine the site?] [3.0] to determine which organism(s) to cover It has already been established that 3.1] site of culture is blood 3.2] organism stain is gram positive Therefore, if 3.3] portal of entry is g.i. 3.4] locus of infection is Pelvis or Abdomen, Then strongly suggestive evidence (0.9) that therapy should cover enterobacteriaceae. [Rule 095] ...

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Mycin: What is the suspected portal of entry of ORGANISM1 into this sterile site?

Doctor: WHY Mycin: [ie, why is it important to determine the site?] [3.0] to determine which organism(s) to cover If has already been established that 3.1] site of culture is blood 3.2] organism stain is gram positive Therefore, if 3.3] portal of entry is g.i. 3.4] locus of infection is Pelvis or Abdomen, Then strongly suggestive evidence (0.9) that therapy should cover enterobacteriaceae. [Rule 095] ...

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Advantage of Rule Transparency

Explain reasoning Support / Credability Helpful when
building/extending system modifying system

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Issues
Faster Computation User Interaction
Focus of Attention Human Engineering

Variables Control of Search

Which (sub)goal? Which rule?

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Research Issues
Better Decision Making
Coping with Uncertainty Better Explanation

Deeper Knowledge
First Principles Meta

Acquiring the Knowledge

from expert from data
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