Ganges Basin Development Challenge

G4: Assessment of the Impact of Anticipated External Drivers of Change on Water Resources of Coastal Zone
Click to edit Master subtitle style

Activities, Outputs and Future Plan

5/21/12

C o n t e n ts

Introduction Activities

Conte nts

Progress and Outputs

Opportunities Future Work Plan

5/21/12

I.

A c ti vi ti e s/ O u

MoU with the partner institutions: IWMI, IWFM-BUET and BWDB Selection of the study area and development of workplan Secondary and field data collection and analysis Field visits and Community consultation Literature review Participation in IFWF3 Selection of external drivers Climate change projection Selection and calibration of water flow and salinity models Development of SWAT model

II.

III.

IV.

V.

VI.

VII.

VIII.

IX.

X.

5/21/12

OUTCOMES

O Project outputs u t c o m e L o

Detailed map of polders & land type, Data, Freshwater & salinity zoning map Assessment of polder external drivers performance in Effectsdrainage terms of of external drivers & irrigation on salinity intrusion, water availability, inundation risk due to flood and storm surge

Change in Practice/ behavior Farmers and fishers of polder 3, 30 and 43/2F Encouraged to Knowledge enhancement participate in Awareness building discussions Researchers of G1, G2, G3 & other ongoing Use knowledge &projects of data & Use information information Interpreting maps, Development charts, data of new database Understanding external drivers WMAs, LGI, BWDB, WARPO, LGED and Acquiring new NGOs Improved knowledge & planning and potential design benefits of Change in adaptation present practice Encouraged to of polder adopt management

Change in KAS

Ministries of water resources, environment & forests, agriculture and fisheries in Bangladesh Scaling up

Impact
Improved and resilient water infrastruct ure and operation Improved Polder managem ent for maximizin g crop & fish productio n and minimizin g inundatio n risk due to flood and storm surge

Resilient and improved plan of polder infrastructure 5/21/12

Understanding of the effects of external drivers & anticipated change of water resources and the benefits of adaptation measures will encourage these policymakers to be motivated to Ministry of Water Resources, MoEF, C.C. formulate new Understanding ofCell Assimilation of policies. It will effects of external new knowledge also enable them drivers and information for advocacy to in project the development Motivated and planning and partners. encouraged approval

Selection of the study area

A c ti vi ti e s/ O u

Polder -3

Polder -30 Polder43/2F

In the early sixties and seventies, 139 polders (of which 49 are sea-facing) were constructed to protect low lying coastal areas from tidal flood & salinity intrusion. 5/21/12

Field Data Collection and Analysis:

A c ti vi ty

At the selected polders (3, 30 and 43/2F) the following primary data are being collected: Salinity in the adjacent Rivers and in the Khals & Ghers inside the Polders q Survey of the drainage system: cross section of khals & embankments and geometry of regulators q Water level measurement in the Khals & adjacent rivers q Water flow measurement (tidal) in the adjacent Rivers qTopography & land level survey of the three polders for detailed Digital Elevation Model (DEM)
q

These data will be utilized for Establishment of present drainage condition, salinity level and flow availability Calibrate and validate the models 5/21/12

Survey location at Polder-3

Salinity monitorin g stations Water level monitorin g stations Water flow measurem ent stations

Click to edit Master subtitle style

5/21/12

Survey location at Polder-30

Salinity monitorin g stations

Water Level monitorin g stations Water flow measurem ent stations

5/21/12

Survey location at Polder-43/2F

Salinity monitorin g stations

Water level monitorin g stations Water flow measurem ent stations

5/21/12

Fi n di n g s

POLDER-3

Click to edit Master subtitle style

5/21/12

40800

40800 39000 38400 36000 33600 31200 39900 37800 35700 33600
Date

Inside Polder 3 (Station-4, Sonnasirchalk))

Polder 3 (Station-1, Ichamoti River)

38400

Polder 6 (Station-3, Habra Khal) 3

33800 31200 28600 28800 26400 24000 26000 23400

36000

36400

33600

31200

28800

26400

Date

21600 18200 19200 29400 16800 14400 12000 7200 4800 2400 0 25200 23100 18900 16800 14700 12600 10500 8400 6300 4200 2100
8 10 6 4 2 0

20800 21600 31500 15600 13000 10400 5200 2600 0 7800 9600 21000 27300

19200

16800

14400

12000

7200

4800
2 0

Date
40000 38000 36000 34000 32000 30000 28000 26000 24000 22000

9600

12

16

14

10

2400
24 22 20 18 16 14 12 Salinity (ppt) 10 8 6 4 2 0

24 22 20 18 16 14 12 Salinity (ppt) 10 8 6 4 2 Salinity (ppt) 0

Polder 3 (Station-2, Ichamoti river) 12

Date

24000

Inside Polder 3 (Station-5, Kanjia)

16

14

Salinity (ppt)

20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 2000

24 22 20 18 16 14 12 Salinity (ppt) 10 8 6 4 2 0

POLD ER-3

Fi n di n g s

5/21/12

4000

Date

Fi n di n g s

POLDER30

5/21/12

Inside Polder 30 (Station-5, Kharia Khal)

3

Polder 30 (Station-1)
22 20 18 16 14 12 10 14 8 6 12 4 18 10 2 8 0 16

Salinity (ppt) 1 0.5 0

Fi n di n g s

2.5 2 1.5

Polder 30 (Station-2, Pussur river)

Salinity (ppt)

Polder 30 (Station-3, Pussur river)

POLDER-30
2795 5695 8595 11495 14395 17295
Date

15

Salinity (ppt)

Salinity (ppt)
20

Date Polder 30 (Station-4, Jhapjhapia river) 6

18 16 14 12 4 2 0

6 14 4 12 2 10 0 8

5/21/12

-105

20195

23095

25995

28895

31795

Salinity (ppt) 10
6 4

34695

37595

40495

Date

15

15

Date

2 0

15

Date

Polder 43-2f (Station-1, Guiskhali river)

3

Fi n di n g s

2.5 2
Salinity (ppt)

1.5 1 0.5 0

Polder 43-2f (Station-2 (In Side),Payra River) POLDER- 43/2f Date

3 2.5 2
Salinity (ppt) 1.5

Polder 43-2f (Station-2 (Out Side),Payra River)

3 2.5 2

15

1
Salinity (ppt) 1.5

0.5 0

1
15

0.5 0
0

Date
Date

15

5/21/12

A c ti vi ti e s

Khal alignment and crosssection survey All the Khals inside the Polder @ 400 m interval Using Echo-sounder, DGPS & Level machine

Land level survey In polder 3, 30 and 43/2F @ 150 X 150 m grid Using Total Station 5/21/12

Reduced Level in mPWD

10 8 6 4 2

0 -20 Distance in meter

A c ti vi ti e s/ O u

Water Flow Measurement Half-hourly discharge measurements for 13hours, once in spring tide and once in neap tide Sep-2011, Jan-2012, Apr -2012 Using ADCP, DGPS

POLDER30

5/21/12

Fi n di n g s

Spring Tide

Water flow at Kazibacha : (29/09/2011)

0

12 10 -200 8 -400 6 Water flow (m3/sec) -600 Water Level (m PWD) 4 -800 2 -1000 0 0.25 0.33 0.42 0.5 0.58 0.67 0.75 0.83
Time

Neap Tide

Water flow at Kazibacha : (19/09/2011)

0

12 10 -200 8 -400 6 Water flow (m3/sec) -600 Water Level (m PWD) 4 -800 2 -1000 0 0.25 0.33 0.42 0.5 0.58 0.67 0.75 0.83
Time

5/21/12

Fi n di n g s

NeapTi de

Water flow at Kazibacha : (19/02/2012)

12 10 8 6 4 Water Level (m PWD) 2 0

0 -200 -400 -600 Water flow (m3/sec) -800 -1000

0.33 0.5 0.67 0.83 0.25 0.42 0.58 0.75

Time

SpringT ide

Water flow at Kazibacha : (25/02/2012)

0 -200 -400 12 10 8 6 4 Water Level (m PWD) 2 0

Water flow(m3/sec)

-600 -800 -1000

0.33 0.5 0.67 0.83 0.25 0.42 0.58 0.75

Time

5/21/12

Secondary Data Collection and Analysis:

Fi n di n g s

Trend Analysis of Ganges River Discharge

Hardinge Bridge on the Ganges Increasing trend of
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Linear Regression for

annual maximum flow Decreasing trend of annual minimum Linear flow Regression
for Linear Regression for

Discharge (m3/s)

1950 1990 1930 1970 2010

5/21/12

A c ti vi ti e s

Joint Field Visit by G1, G2, G4, G5 25 Mar 2012

Bazarkhali IRRI Test Site 0.2 ppt (khal) 0.3 ppt Angulkata (field) culvert 0.2 ppt (river)

Silted khal near Chowra River

5/21/12

A c ti vi ti e s

Joint Field Visit by G1, G2, G4, G5 26 Mar 2012

Culvert on Khal 3.5ppt (khal) Maitbhanga Village (lowlying area)

IRRI Test Site 1.3 ppt (khal) 1.5 ppt (field)

Worldfish Test Site 2.0 ppt (khal)

Polder-30

Near IWM WL gauge 5.9 ppt (khal)

IWM WL gauge Water level 8.2ppt (river)

and salinity monitoring

5/21/12

A c ti vi ti e s

Joint Field Visit by G1, G2, G4, G5 27 Mar 2012

Polder3

5/21/12

Field Visits

A c ti vi ti e s

Polder3

Rotational cropping system: agriculture and aquaculture at Debhata Dry season 9th June 2011

Shrimp ghers at Shannashir Chak Monsoon 16th Aug 2011

5/21/12 Internal canals to flush saline water to the ghers at Shannashir

A c ti vi ti e s

Polder30

Blockage of khal by cross-dam

Sedimentation at outfall of regulator

5/21/12

Low lying area in

A c ti vi ti e s

Polder30

Drainage congestion at Polder embankment raised by IPSWAM along Gangarampur Polder- Pussur river the 43/2F

5/21/12

Polder43/2F

A c ti vi ti e s
5/21/12

Riversi de

Country side Country side

Riversi de Siltation of khals and no regulator for flushing

5.

Literature Review:
Policies: National Water Policy and National Water Management Plan: identifies the region as one that needs urgent attention. Coastal Zone Policy and Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan Completed and ongoing water management projects in the study area: Integrated Environmental Management: A Case Study on Shrimppaddy Land Use Strategies in the Southwest of Bangladesh Khulna Jessore Drainage Rehabilitation Project (KJDRP) Southwest Area Integrated Water Resources Planning and Management Integrated Planning for Sustainable Water Management (IPSWAM) Studies on past and present land use practices Studies related to climate change: including impact of sea level rise, salinity intrusion and polder management Knowledge Gap:

O u t p u t

Selection of external drivers Developing future scenario with the external drivers Effect of external drivers on water resources 5/21/12

Selection of External Drivers:

A c ti vi ti e s

Literature Review and Interaction with G4 partners Preliminar y List of External Drivers Questionna ire Survey

Overall Methodology

Expe rts
Researcher s of G1, G2, G3, G4 & G5 and other projects

Farmers and Fishers 5/21/12

Community Consultatio n

Triangulat ion Workshop

Key External Drivers and Ranking

A c ti vi ti e s/ O u

Preliminary List of Population growth External Drivers

Dietary patterns of the population Economic development (change in per capita income) in the coastal zone. Market value of agriculture products Water policy (national and regional) Water pricing and insurance Change in water governance and institutions Water sharing mechanisms between the riparian parts of the basin. Land-use change including increase in area under rice cultivation Urbanization Industrialization Changes in aquaculture intensification Water use change Change in water management practices Sea level rise due to climate change Change in precipitation due to climate change Change in temperature due to climate change Water infrastructure development Change in trans-boundary flow 5/21/12

A c ti vi ti e s

Name Age Gender Occupation

Male

Questionnaire Survey
Female

Please indicate how do you think the external drivers will affect water resources of your area/coastal region of Ganges basin ? Score (1-5) 5. 2. 3. 4. To a To a To a To a very very mod signisigni limit erat fican fica ed e t nt 1. exte exte exte exte Sl External Drivers No nt nt nt nt Remarks 1 Do you think the pressure of population growth on water resources will continue in the future? 2 Is market value an important factor in crop divesification? 3 Will sea level rise reduce freshwater availability and land availability for agriculture? 4 Will decrease of rainfall in the dry season and increase in the monsoon renderadverse impact on 5/21/12 water resources?

Fi n di n g s

Results of Scoreforth Questionnaire Survey especificdriver 100% Percentage =

Totalscoreforallthedrivers

Percentage
5/21/12

Fi n di n g s

FGD at Polder 30

Community Consultation

Place: Kismat-Fultola, Batiaghata Priorit Issue Participant: Fishermen y 1 Loss of connectivity (6 women,floodplain/ human intervention between river and 9 men)
2 Obstruction of khals/rivers by net-pata, charu or other obstruction 3 Beels and other fish habitats have been destroyed 4 Connectivity of the khals have been lost, hampers fish migration Priorit Issue 5 Fertilizers and pesticides destroyed fish y Population growth is a major problem, increase of fishers decrease fish 6 1 Polder embankment overtopping because of rising water level and production river sedimentation 7 Navigability of the rivers have decreased 8 2 Leasing of BWDB drainage khals and poor drainage system and river Recurrent water logging due to illegal khal encroachments 9 Fishing the fish withfuture this problem will become more severe sedimentation, in eggs 10 3 Market is active in the area but there is a fund crisis middleman at a WMA accessibility. Fishers have to sell fish to the lower price 4 Increase in congestion the river water attracts crocodiles which is of Drainage salinity of due to khal leasing and poor management a 11 khal and regulators threat to the fishers 5 Reduction of yield of sesame and rice crop due to poor drainage 6 Increase of salinity level in the rivers and khals due to decrease of sweet water from upstream Participants believe that Farakka Barrage is among other causes of river sedimentation

Place: Fultola, Batiaghata Participant: Farmers (3 women, 20 men)

5/21/12

FGD at Polder 3

Fi n di n g s

Community Consultation

Place: Nalta Union Parishad, Kaliganj Priorit Issue Participant: Farmer y 1 Water logging is the main problem in the area. It hampers (2 women, 8 men)
rice production. Drainage khals are often obstructed. There are unplanned ghers in the area which blocked the drainage fron agricultural land causing water logging. There have been unplanned human habitats/ Land use Priorit Issue change 3 y Last two years were extremely dry so that salinity was 1 much higher than before Scarcity of drinking water availability Unplanned ghers (mainly for fishing purposes) 4 2 Polders are overtopped during spring tide Drainage of fertilizer price hampers rice production 5 3 The increasecongestion is also a severe problem in the area 4 Due to sedimentation of the riverbeds drainage congestion has been increased. They blamed Farakka barrage for sedimentation of riverbeds 5 Increased rainfall is another reason is for water logging 2

Place: Bara Shimla Union Parishad, Kaliganj Participant: Fishermen (15 men)

Polder overtopping and breaching is a major problem in the area

5/21/12

Fi n di n g s

FGD at Polder 43/2F

Community Consultation
Place: Gulishakhali Union Parishad, Amtali Participant: Farmer (7 women, 15 men) embankment height and less number of cyclone

Priorit Issue y
1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Inadequate shelter Scarcity of Water in Dry Seasons for irrigation and household works Insufficient Water Control Structures Permanent Leasing of khals Insufficient Linkage among khals due to less number of culverts on roads inside polder Improper Irrigation for high and low lands Coordination Problem in Between Govt. Officials and Local People

5/21/12

A c ti vi ti e s

Triangulation Workshop GroupGroup1 3

Group4

Group2

5/21/12

5/21/12

Fi n di n g s

Rank 1

Group-1 Change in transboundary flow and sharing mechanism

Triangulation Workshop Group Discussion Results Rank Group-2

2 3

Population growth Water infrastructure & Management 4 Land use change 5 Water and land policy, governance and Rank institution Group-4 6 Sea level rise& Flow 1 Trans-boundarywater quality 2 Change in Water Management Practice 3 4 5 6 7 5/21/12 8 Population Growth Land Use Change Sea Level Rise Water Infrastructure Development Urbanization Changes in Water Use

Change in Trans1 boundary Flow Change in Water 2 Management Practices 3 Water Use Change Change in Water Governance and 4 Institutions RankLand-use Change Group-3 5 1 Change in transboundary flow 2 Population growth 3 Land use change including increase in area under rice cultivation 4 Climate change 5 Change in water governance and

Fi n di n g/ O u t p

Final List of External Drivers

External Drivers Change in transboundary flow Population growth Change in water management practices Land use change Climate change (including precipitation, temperature) and sea level rise Change in water governance and institutions (including policy change) Water use change Water infrastructure development Urbanization Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

5/21/12

A c ti vi ti e s

Climate Change Projections:

Temperature Precipitation Sea level rise

5/21/12

O p p o rt u ni ti e

Fallow land in Rabi season

Polder43/2F

IRRI experimental site

Freshwater availability in peripheral rivers (0.2-0.3ppt in late March)

Silted up khal

Opportunity of increasing crop intensity from 100/200% to 300% by infrastructure development and improved water 5/21/12 management (G2, G3 and G4 can work together)

Plan for the year 2012-2013

V is io n s

No Activity- Milestone 2012 201 . 3 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 0Project Implementation 0.2 Project progress reports 1 Field visits, interaction meetings, data collection, literature review, driver identification, workshop, training 1.4 Collection and analysis of hydrological data 3 Assessment of cross-boundary flow, effect of landuse change and population growth 3.1 Development, calibration and validation of SWAT model for assessing baseline condition 3.2 Projection of climate change condition using SWAT model 3.2 Development, calibration &validation of WEAP model for assessing baseline condition 3.3 Projection of population growth and land-use for future condition using WEAP model 3.4 Computation of cross-boundary flow 4 Simulation of scenarios and assessment of anticipated changes on water resources 4.4 Assessment of baseline water flow in coastal region of the Ganges river 4.5 Assessment of water flow in the Ganges river for external drivers (scenarios) 4.6 Assessment of baseline salinity in study area & selected polders 4.7 Assessment of salinity in study area & selected polders for external 5/21/12 drivers (scenarios)

F Collection of data on land use and hydrology in the entire Ganges basin u Development of future scenarios based on external drivers t Development, calibration and validation of SWAT model in the entire Ganges Basin u Simulation of rainfall and land-use change for recent years for assessing trans-boundary flow, sub-catchment flow and water r balance at different reaches of the catchment e Assessment of effect of land-use change on water resources for 2020, 2030, 2050 W Assessment of effect of population growth/demographic changes on water resources o r k 5/21/12 pl

F u t u r e W o r k 5/21/12 pl

Study area: Ganges Basin

F Methodology for the Entire u Ganges Basin t Use Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate hydrology for the u Ganges Basin. r Delineate sub-basins e Input: landuse, soil, and weather data Calibrate from 1995 to 2000 ( Tentative, W based on available data) o Validate from 2001 to 2005 ( Tentative, based on available data) r

Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)

5/21/12

F Continuation of literature review to find the available knowledge and knowledge gaps u Development of future scenarios based on external drivers t Downscaling of GCMs using RCM models and use of available simulation results for climate change projections u Finalization of the climate change projections r Assessment of impacts and development of adaptation strategies e River morphology and future morphological changes W o r k 5/21/12 pl

F Continuation data collection and analysis u Collection of relevant study reports and review Development of future scenarios based on external drivers t Plan for improved water infrastructure u Outscaling of research results r e W o r k 5/21/12 pl

F Continuation of surface water salinity, water level and water flow data collection u Development of scenarios based on drivers through participatory method: t Transboundary flow + climate change ? u Water management + governance + Infrastructure development ? r Calibration and validation of flow and salinity models e Establishment of baseline condition W Simulation of the scenarios Assessment of impact of different scenarios on water resources o Adaptation strategies r k 5/21/12 pl

The Ganges Water Treaty

Water available at Farakka 70,000 cusec or less Share of India Share of Bangladesh

50%

50%

70,000-75,000 cusec

Residual flow

35,000 cusec

Greater than 75,000 cusec

40,000 cusec

Residual flow

5/21/12

Hydrologic Changes in the Gorai System

Mean 1-day low flow: Decreased from 146 to 35 cumec post FB period Increased to 51 cumec after GWT

5/21/12

V is io n s

5/21/12

Click to edit Master subtitle style

THANK YOU

5/21/12

A c ti vi ty

Pressure Gauge: -Automatic water level data in 10 min interval Staff Gauge: - Manual water level data in 1hour interval

Water level measurement

Pressu re Gauge Staff Gauge

Salinity measurement

5/21/12

In peripheral rivers: -Salinity is measured twice (during high water slack and low water slack) in alternate days