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NASA radar reveals local surprises. . . . . .and troubling fault motions 60 km north
Precise images are adding realism to crustal models and forecasts UAVSAR blanketing California danger zones with change-detection images
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>Mw 2.0 Earthquakes (Apr-Dec 2010, orange dots) from the ANSS Worldwide Earthquake Catalog, Advanced National Seismic System
Fault traces from Southern California Earthquake Center, Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF-2), Edward H. Field and coworkers.
Elsinore fault extends into Los Angeles San Jacinto fault reaches to San Bernardino Full-length ruptures must be considered: damaging earthquakes
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Changes from 24 April 2009 to 13 April 2010 Chiefly due to earthquake in Baja (El Mayor-Cucapah) Creases resemble fault slip
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Scale: 20 km
Left trace: Borrego Mountain Earthquake (1968, Mw 6.5); Right trace, top: Elmore Ranch Earthquake (1987, Mw 6.2); Right trace, bottom: Superstition Hills Earthquake (1987, Mw 6.6) Fresh slip on these faults verified in the field (Treiman) Signals stress transfer north into San Jacinto fault system; ripe for a damaging earthquake?
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Part of NASA QuakeSim project, which develops earthquake simulations and resources. Computer simulation: A 100,000 year virtual history of earthquakes, movies Addresses important hazard questions: how likely is a San Jacinto fault full/partial rupture? Relies on real fault information over wide areas, as radar imaging provides. Produces scores of large Baja virtual earthquakes (at right): -- easy to find ones followed by damaging earthquakes to the north (3-30 years later).
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Flight plans cover major faults, including Elsinore, San Jacinto, San Andreas every six months
Is key to improving hazard forecasts, tracking slow fault motions. Images signs of stress transfer threatening cities to north.
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