Chapter 11

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Induction and Analogy

Induction and Causal Arguments

Analogies

Arguments from Analogy

A comparison of things based Arguments depend on an on similarities those things analogy or a similarity between share to or more things Ex: Habits are like a cable. We Ex: Dogs are put to sleep when weave a strand of it everyday they become too old or too sick and soon it cannot be broken. to enjoy life further. Similarly, human beings should be mercifully put to death when they become too old or too sick to enjoy life further.

 Basic general form of an argument from analogy: A has characteristic X. B has characteristic X. A has characteristic Y. Therefore, B has characteristic Y.

1st 2nd 3rd

The truth of the premises The relevance of the similarities The number of relevant similarities The relevance of dissimilarities The number of relevant dissimilarities The diversity of the sample The specificity of the conclusion relative to premises

4th 5th
6th 7th

??? Evaluate the following argument: Andy is a graduate of IU, and he is bright, energetic, and dependable. Sara is a graduate of IU, and she is bright, energetic, and dependable. Betty is a graduate of IU. Therefore, most likely, Betty is bright, energetic, and dependable, too.

Are the premises true?

Are the similarities relevant? How about dissimilarities? What about the specificity of the conclusion with regard to the premises?

effective
Strong argument from analogy A weak argument from analogy

harmful

 A causal argument asserts or denies that something is the cause of something else. Most of the time, this kind of arguments is inductive. However, some causal arguments are intended to be deductive.

1. It is easier to prove that sth is not the cause of sth else than to prove it is. 2. Recognizing causal terms. 3. Recognizing 2 types of causal arguments: a single instance and a general relationship. 4. Understanding the distorting effect of selective attention and memory and the unreliability of anecdotal evidence. 5. Recognizing the merit of a controlled experiment. 6. Distinguishing relationships of correlation from relationships of causation.

 Example of an argument about a single instance: Jane had failed the mathematics test this semester and she did not study hard in some subjects since she became an university student. Therefore, it is probably her laziness that caused her fail. Example of an argument about a general relationship The Surgeon General has found that there is a strong link between smoking cigarettes and getting lung cancer. So, smoking cigarettes causes lung cancer.

It is a problem in arguing for cause and effect relationship if a person just based on his/her selective attention or memory about something. For example: Every time we have a full moon, people behave strangely. So, the full moon must cause the strange behavior.

 Another danger in forming premises for causal arguments is relying on anecdotal evidence what others tell us. Others are also subject to misreporting observations on the basis of their own in order to gain something by deceiving us

Placebo effect

Experiment al group

Controlled group

Controlled experiment

Double blinds study

 A correlation is a relationship in which two things are frequently, or even constantly, found together. There are two types of correlation: positive and negative correlation. Most correlations do not indicate a causal relationship between two things or events correlated

Correlation

Causal relationship