Herald on Sunday: -Nationwide Electorate Political Poll

June 2012

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Overview

This survey: Telephone interviews with 700 eligible voters nationwide aged 18+; Fieldwork Wednesday 20th to Friday 22nd June 2012.

The overall results have a margin of error of +/-3.70% at the 95% confidence level.

The following steps were taken to ensure objectivity, validity and reliability of the study: The questionnaire was designed by executives from Key Research in partnership with the Herald on Sunday; Respondents were selected for participation using a random number generation service; All telephone interviews were conducted by trained and experienced Key Research interviewers; The research results were processed electronically using statistical software and analysed by executives from Key Research.

Copyright 2012 Key Research. Confidential and proprietary.

% of respondents

Q If there was a General Election tomorrow how likely or unlikely would you be to vote?

Valid

Would definitely vote Would probably vote Would probably not vote Don't know / Not sure Total

Frequency 593 75 29 3 700

Percent 84.7 10.7 4.1 .4 100.0

Valid Percent 84.7 10.7 4.1 .4 100.0

Cumulative Percent 84.7 95.4 99.6 100.0

n=700 3
Copyright 2012 Key Research. Confidential and proprietary.

% of respondents

Q If the election were held tomorrow, which PARTY would you vote for with your party vote?

November 2011
Valid ACT New Zealand Alliance Conservative Party Green Party Labour Party Mana Maori Party National Party New Zealand First Party United Future Total Missing Total Don't know / not sure

Frequency Percent Valid Percent 4 .4 .5 .0 11 100 192 3 5 447 29 2 794 206 1000 1.1 10.0 19.2 .3 .5 44.7 2.9 .2 79.4 20.6 100.0 .1 1.4 12.6 24.2 .3 .6 56.4 3.6 .3 100.0

Cumulative Percent .5 .5 2.0 14.6 38.8 39.1 39.8 96.1 99.7 100.0
Valid

June 2012
ACT New Zealand Conservative Party Democrats for Social Credit Green Party Labour Party Mana Maori Party National Party New Zealand First Party Other Total Missing Total Don't know / Not sure

Frequency 3 5 1 87 179 1 10 282 19 2 589 111 700

Percent

Valid Percent .4 .5 .7 .1 .8 .1 14.8 30.4 .2 1.7 47.9 3.2 .3 100.0

Cumulative Percent .5 1.3 1.4 16.2 46.6 46.9 48.6 96.5 99.7 100.0

12.4 25.6 .2 1.5 40.3 2.7 .3 84.1 15.9 100.0

n=700 4
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% of respondents

Q If the election were held tomorrow, who would be your preferred Prime Minister?

Valid

John Key David Shearer Phil Goff Winston Peters Colin Craig Stephanie de Ruyter Russel Norman Hone Harawira Bill English Other Don't know / Not Sure Total

Frequency 322 118 7 23 8 2 10 3 3 38 168 700

Percent 45.9 16.9 1.1 3.2 1.2 .3 1.4 .4 .4 5.4 24.0 100.0

Valid Percent 45.9 16.9 1.1 3.2 1.2 .3 1.4 .4 .4 5.4 24.0 100.0

Cumulative Percent 45.9 62.8 63.9 67.1 68.3 68.6 69.9 70.3 70.7 76.0 100.0

n=700 5
Copyright 2012 Key Research. Confidential and proprietary.

% of respondents

Q The New Zealand Government plans a partial sale of State Owned Assets, Mighty River Power, Genesis, Meridian, Solid Energy and Air New Zealand. Do you support the partial sale of these New Zealand State Owned Assets?

Valid

Yes No Don't Know / Not Sure Total

Frequency 175 447 78 700

Percent 25.0 63.8 11.1 100.0

Valid Percent 25.0 63.8 11.1 100.0

Cumulative Percent 25.0 88.9 100.0

n=700 6
Copyright 2012 Key Research. Confidential and proprietary.

% of respondents

Q If you had the money, would you buy shares in any of these State Owned Assets?

Valid

Yes No Don't Know / Not Sure Total

Frequency 420 218 63 700

Percent 59.9 31.1 9.0 100.0

Valid Percent 59.9 31.1 9.0 100.0

Cumulative Percent 59.9 91.0 100.0

n=700 7
Copyright 2012 Key Research. Confidential and proprietary.

% of respondents

Q Do you support the partial sale of these New Zealand State Owned Assets? by If the election were held tomorrow, which PARTY would you vote for with your party vote?

If the election were held ACT New Zealand tomorrow, which PARTY Conservative Party would you vote for with Democrats for Social Credit your party vote? Green Party Labour Party Mana Maori Party National Party New Zealand First Party Don't know / Not sure Other Total

Do you support the partial sale of these New Zealand State Owned Assets? Don't Know / Not Yes No Sure 100.0% 20.0% 40.0% 100.0% 5.8% 6.1% 89.5% 88.3% 100.0% 100.0% 51.1% 5.3% 9.0% 25.0% 32.3% 78.9% 80.2% 100.0% 63.9% 11.1% 16.7% 15.8% 10.8% 4.7% 5.6% 40.0%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

n 3 5 1 87 179 1 10 282 19 111 2 700

n=700 8
Copyright 2012 Key Research. Confidential and proprietary.

% of respondents

Q Would you buy shares in any of these State Owned Assets? by If the election were held tomorrow, which PARTY would you vote for with your party vote?

If you had the money, would you buy shares in any of these State Owned Assets? Yes If the election were held tomorrow, which PARTY would you vote for with your party vote?DO NOT READ OPTIONS, SINGLE RESPONSE ACT New Zealand Conservative Party Democrats for Social Credit Green Party Labour Party Mana Maori Party National Party New Zealand First Party Don't know / Not sure Other Total 90.9% 71.6% 26.3% 53.2% 50.0% 60.0% 33.3% 20.0% 100.0% 51.7% 53.3% 42.5% 37.2% 100.0% 9.1% 18.1% 63.2% 37.8% 50.0% 31.1% 9.0% 10.3% 10.5% 9.0% 5.7% 9.4% No 66.7% 80.0% Don't Know / Not Sure Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% n 3 5 1 87 179 1 10 282 19 111 2 700

n=700 9
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Q If there was a General Election tomorrow how likely or unlikely would you be to vote? By Age

Which of the following age groups do you belong to? If there was a General Election tomorrow how likely or unlikely would you be to vote? Would definitely vote Would probably vote Would probably not vote Don't know / Not sure Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 18 - 24 73.4% 18.8% 7.8% 25 - 34 77.1% 14.3% 8.6% 35 - 44 87.8% 8.3% 3.8% 45 - 54 84.7% 12.2% 2.3% .8% 100.0% 55 - 64 91.1% 6.7% 1.1% 1.1% 100.0% 100.0% 65 - 74 92.3% 7.7% 75+ REFUSED 85.5% 100.0% 9.1% 3.6% 1.8% 100.0% 100.0% Total 84.5% 11.0% 4.1% .4% 100.0%

n=700 10
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Q If there was a General Election tomorrow how likely or unlikely would you be to vote? By Gender

What is your Gender? If there was a General Election tomorrow how likely or unlikely would you be to vote? Would definitely vote Would probably vote Would probably not vote Don't know / Not sure Total Male 83.0% 12.2% 4.5% .3% 100.0% Female 86.1% 9.3% 3.8% .8% 100.0% Total 84.6% 10.7% 4.1% .6% 100.0%

n=700 11
Copyright 2012 Key Research. Confidential and proprietary.

Q If the election were held tomorrow, which PARTY would you vote for with your party vote? By Age
Which of the following age groups do you belong to? 18 - 24 If the election were held ACT New Zealand tomorrow, which PARTY Conservative Party would you vote for with your Democrats for Social Credit party vote? Green Party Labour Party Mana Maori Party National Party New Zealand First Party Don't know / Not sure Other Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 14.1% 45.3% 6.4% 30.5% 2.1% 13.5% 43.3% 1.3% 13.4% 7.8% 32.8% 19.9% 27.7% 25 - 34 35 - 44 1.3% 1.3% 45 - 54 55 - 64 1.1% 2.2% 1.5% 13.4% 26.1% 13.0% 25.2% .8% .8% 43.5% 1.5% 15.3% 11.1% 23.3% 1.1% 1.1% 43.3% 2.2% 14.4% 47.7% 6.2% 18.5% 1.5% 100.0% 27.8% 13.0% 31.5% 1.9% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 6.2% 18.5% 3.7% 22.2% 65 - 74 75+ REFUSED Total .4% .6% .1% 12.4% 25.5% .3% 1.6% 40.1% 2.8% 15.9% .3% 100.0%

n=700 12
Copyright 2012 Key Research. Confidential and proprietary.

Q If the election were held tomorrow, which PARTY would you vote for with your party vote? By Gender

What is your Gender? Male If the election were held ACT New Zealand tomorrow, which PARTY Conservative Party would you vote for with your Democrats for Social Credit party vote? Green Party Labour Party Mana Maori Party National Party New Zealand First Party Don't know / Not sure Other Total .9% 1.2% .3% 16.8% 18.9% .3% 2.1% 44.3% 3.0% 12.0% .3% 100.0% 1.1% 36.6% 2.5% 19.4% .3% 100.0% 8.5% 31.7% Female Total .4% .6% .1% 12.4% 25.6% .1% 1.6% 40.3% 2.7% 15.9% .3% 100.0%

n=700 13
Copyright 2012 Key Research. Confidential and proprietary.

Q If the election were held tomorrow, who would be your preferred Prime Minister?

By Age
Which of the following age groups do you belong to? If the election were held tomorrow, who would be your preferred Prime Minister? John Key David Shearer Phil Goff Winston Peters Colin Craig Stephanie de Ruyter Russel Norman Hone Harawira Bill English Other Don't know / Not Sure Total 25.4% 100.0% 2.1% 6.4% 33.3% 100.0% 6.4% 21.2% 100.0% 6.9% 20.0% 100.0% 4.4% 16.5% 100.0% 4.7% 18.8% 100.0% 5.6% 31.5% 100.0% 100.0% 3.5% 18 - 24 49.2% 19.0% 3.2% 3.2% 2.1% 4.3% 1.3% 1.5% .8% 1.1% 2.2% 1.6% 25 - 34 32.6% 15.6% 35 - 44 51.3% 17.3% 1.3% 1.3% 45 - 54 49.2% 16.2% .8% 3.1% 1.5% 55 - 64 51.6% 17.6% 1.1% 5.5% 3.1% 65 - 74 53.1% 18.8% 75+ REFUSED 37.0% 14.8% 3.7% 7.4% 100.0% Total 46.0% 16.9% 1.1% 3.3% 1.1% .3% 1.3% .4% .4% 5.4% 23.7% 100.0%

n=700 14
Copyright 2012 Key Research. Confidential and proprietary.

Q If the election were held tomorrow, who would be your preferred Prime Minister?

By Gender

What is your Gender? If the election were held tomorrow, who would be your preferred Prime Minister? John Key David Shearer Phil Goff Winston Peters Colin Craig Stephanie de Ruyter Russel Norman Hone Harawira Bill English Other Don't know / Not Sure Total Male 51.3% 13.7% .3% 3.9% 1.2% .6% 2.1% .6% .9% 6.3% 19.1% 100.0% 4.4% 28.4% 100.0% .8% .3% Female 40.7% 19.7% 1.9% 2.5% 1.4% Total 45.8% 16.8% 1.1% 3.1% 1.3% .3% 1.4% .4% .4% 5.3% 24.0% 100.0%

n=700 15
Copyright 2012 Key Research. Confidential and proprietary.

Q The New Zealand Government plans a partial sale of State Owned Assets, Mighty River Power, Genesis, Meridian, Solid Energy and Air New Zealand. Do you support the partial sale of these New Zealand State Owned Assets? By Age

Which of the following age groups do you belong to? Do you support the partial sale of these New Zealand State Owned Assets? Yes 18 - 24 29.7% 25 - 34 19.1% 35 - 44 26.9% 45 - 54 26.9% 55 - 64 26.7% 65 - 74 28.8% 75+ REFUSED 18.5% Total 25.1%

No

51.6%

72.3%

57.7%

62.3%

67.8%

63.6%

70.4%

100.0%

63.8%

Don't Know / Not Sure

18.8%

8.5%

15.4%

10.8%

5.6%

7.6%

11.1%

11.1%

Total

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

n=700 16
Copyright 2012 Key Research. Confidential and proprietary.

Q The New Zealand Government plans a partial sale of State Owned Assets, Mighty River Power, Genesis, Meridian, Solid Energy and Air New Zealand. Do you support the partial sale of these New Zealand State Owned Assets? By Gender

What is your Gender? Do you support the partial sale of these New Zealand State Owned Assets? Yes Male 32.0% Female 18.6% Total 25.0%

No

58.4%

68.9%

63.9%

Don't Know / Not Sure

9.6%

12.6%

11.1%

Total

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

n=700 17
Copyright 2012 Key Research. Confidential and proprietary.

Q If you had the money, would you buy shares in any of these State Owned Assets?

By Age

Which of the following age groups do you belong to? If you had the money, would Yes you buy shares in any of No these State Owned Assets? Don't Know / Not Sure Total 18 - 24 67.2% 25.0% 7.8% 100.0% 25 - 34 69.3% 21.4% 9.3% 100.0% 35 - 44 60.6% 28.4% 11.0% 100.0% 45 - 54 65.4% 26.2% 8.5% 100.0% 55 - 64 48.9% 42.2% 8.9% 100.0% 65 - 74 53.0% 40.9% 6.1% 100.0% 75+ REFUSED 40.0% 50.9% 9.1% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Total 59.9% 31.1% 9.0% 100.0%

n=700 18
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Q If you had the money, would you buy shares in any of these State Owned Assets?

By Gender

What is your Gender? If you had the money, would Yes you buy shares in any of No these State Owned Assets? Don't Know / Not Sure Total Male 61.7% 30.2% 8.1% 100.0% Female 58.2% 32.0% 9.8% 100.0% Total 59.9% 31.1% 9.0% 100.0%

n=700 19
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