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35

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37

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V?U? s?< w?d?F? r?U?F? b?K?? l?d?D? w?U?J?D? u?LM qF
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WjU WO<_ bF< dL w
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dO`

q?<U?J? b?Ou q<U U< wdF rUF b oOF nI dA

38

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bK WUBI WMO w
sU uM v p e _ UI* w

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U??? ? u?I? v? d?B?(U? d?<_ p bI wUO U&
l?< o?H?? W?O?<u?I? s?u?J w
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p qJA
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w?
c? UN uJ U<bM v WIOC UUOJ dOGB bU
c
W?O?
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o UNd
b?I wdF rUFK WUBI WOM w
UH S
d<_ U` U

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b?F c dJ
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39

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WU& WOUMj WDOD WO Wu 5 U< UUBI

v? U?u?L??< w
dI c s< dO_ uIF cM< nMB
W?O?d?F? U?< d?D?I s?d??? X?u?J? W?uFD WODH
dO dze' dF WODH nB UOO UL b*
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U?F? bN wKOzd wdF dB w
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d?zU? v?K? U?H?? c? f?J?F? b?I?
U? q?` v?K WOUL
wdF rUF w
WUBI WOUL WOUOD U{_
dzU s wdF rUF b WUBI WOM nK: b< v U<
s< p vK uIu sJLO
d{U( XIu w
rUF w
b
rI b w
W{u* dR* dF

40

 r8 b
WUB8 dR* iF V0 rUF wdF rUF 5 WUI$
U$ dzU ju$ ju$
U$ dHK WO0M rUF wdF rUF

W u0$

WUB8 dR*
WK$UF uI r

UDI w WOzU0M WULF W0

WOzU0M WULF W0

U$b) UD8 w WOzU0M WULF W0

We UD8 w WOzU0M WULF W0

WUMB UD8 w WOzU0M WULF W0

\ \

WK$UF uI uL$ s$ WOzU0M WULF W0

rhCK WuM0 W0M

bU UF wb wUO r

WOiN UF_ dR$

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UF U bF$ s$ UF wK; U W0

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\ \

WOzUdNJ W8UD s$ dH N bF$

\ WK$UF uI uL$ s$ WOe WULF W0

Source:World Development Indicators on CD,1998.

41

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42

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pc` d<_ U??d?I nFC UF U0 WOdF b
UF{ WOUL UF U< v dH c qB r:CK WuMD
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w?d?F? rUFU WUBI WO
UI WOUL WOM vK WLN<
dOE uH U<b) UDI w
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uH dJDF
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nFC s< d` UF U0 p
vK ju* w
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r?U?F dzU uD< vK UNdOE uH UIH WdJDF UNUUDI
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p tLNH sJ1 d< u
w?K?O?zd? w?d?F? d?B? W?jU? b?b uI cM< WOdF WUD
U
) UNR w wdF rUF iF 5 WOKb UdB

43

dH wdF rUF wu s< WOU w

bN UJ U< w Wb(
w*UF UEM vK WMLON* b s< WcG rb d WOU w

UB
w
wdF rUF b WUBI WOLOKF hzUB s< Ubj U< qF
wdF rUF w
UB dU l{ UOze

u UM dDH WIUD dIH

s?J?1 rUF dzUD WUI< wdF rUF w
WO<_ wAH u{ wH

oK: WO<_ Wb( UB qzU b: Wb< dO` b v lIu

r?I b?' W?O?N?O?
d?? WOHOI qzUu pK q* WU( b
`{ qJA p v dOA WOUB dR* iF vK u c
r8 b
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WL0 qJ nuN bF$

Source:World Development Indicators on CD,1998.

44

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w?d?F rUF UDuL

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45

- b?I?
w?d?F? r?U?F w
wB UEM hzUB vK uIuK
bK WOB dR* iF vK u c rI b' b
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r8 b
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dAK W(UB UO* s$ sbOH0* UJ0 W0

Source:World Development Indicators on CD,1998.

46

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dzU w
UdzUE s du qJA nK: UNM< dR< W w

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wdF rUF w
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47

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W?1d?' W?O?M? v?K? d?F?? v?K? W?b c w
UbUD hzUB)
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s< U?u? X?{d?
b?I U?F?L??: u??D?< v?K W1d' dUE WDd*
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d?zU? 5? s?< Durkheim,1858-1917 .U?` q?O?< X?O?E
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48

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49

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v? U?d?< W?O?U?L?? W?I?OI` qLF rODI uD v .U` dEM r
U< b vK WOUD UFD nOJ WHUC< v wFDU` WODH Yu
o?zU?I? q?<u v Ud< WOUL WIOI u q dDM tO Vc
u?d?< d?< q?L?F? r?O?D?I? uD w
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t?UI U U/ s< q` uD v R p S
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50

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1978

51

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w?
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w?M?b? s?U??? u?GK sU 5 qI bF< 5 WODJF WIFU
s?< t d`c wIdF sU 5 qI bF< 5 WOU WIF
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d?
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r?I? r c XIu w
U?H?O?F{ WOB:A rNUU rN
b oOI
tQ bIF 5U S
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wFL' qIF dOLC qK% v uI wIdF sU Q uI sJL* s<
WHK:< rOI UN uJO WHK< UUL'U
WOUL' WDKD rb c
WKzUF eU` UDR< UO WHK:< UJ
WOL d` qJA U0
s?J? r?O?I? c r dI WUM< WOzUM' WbF rE b*
WFHd< W l< oUD qI W1d' lHd* bF* dI UC .U`
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dDOD w Wb wUL r s<
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w?
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d wb v R cG r s< WFHd* WbU
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52

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W?R?* d?U?A?* c?G? W?O?b? b??< n?u? u?L?M WB Wd UM
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t?U?A?< d?O?Q? U?N uJ U0 uGK sU UL` qI W1d b
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w?<u? s? .U?` u?N?H?< v? d?E? bI ULNODH 5U UL`
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W?1d??K? w?DOz bBL` w
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p? k? c Lander,1954 b? q??I s?< t?U? X9 WMU*
w<uU W
dF* .U` WdE l< b`R< qJA oH
d?O?D?H?? W?O?U?L? WdEM tUOj w
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W?M?OF< UJ `{uO c tdE .bI Merton,1938 udO< UI

s?< w?? d?D? t?D?H? l?LLK wHOu UM s WU d s<
s?< b?N tS
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tHzU wUL UM R UN
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U9 w WOHOJ UA` v c tdE
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b? l?L: w
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uGC cN W{dF* UUL' b UMFD S
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b$ lIu*
u?K?D? U?J? v? r?N?F?
b WOuuO UeM Ud
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VOD WOUL WFOD oKDM< s< UUL' c _ sJ dM*
Merton, 1957, p.74 tO
UNDH b& c wUL l{uK
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ujuK VOU s< lL: dI U< 5 lLLK w

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UI
w?U?L UM v dEM sJ1 UL` lL: d
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d?E?M? t? p? ? p? d?< a? UFL: b d`_
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p??K?? w?F?L?' q?I?F? p? W?M?<U?J? u?I? d?Q? b?< U?u?D?
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w
5U U w
bzUD djUF* UU&_ Mcshane,1994,p.100)
d??` q?J?A? U?N?<b: v qO9 WdEM c b: u W1d' U<
w?<u? W?d?E? s?< U?U?& u?B? c vLD U< U??U? W?O?<uL
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c u uM' U tU` w
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d
vK WdEM c s< dJH uI jGC WdE vLD* c dJ
d
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du jGC UdE vLD< X% WKb Wb( UUOB s<
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58

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d?< U?d???F d dIH 5 WIUH*

d?I?H? b?A? eOL* s`U<_ w
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U s< be< oK: w W{u uH c q< u d b

s?< b?b?F b` bI W1d' s< WOU bF< v R U2 U<d(
WOU Wb eOL du jGC UdE s< WUOB c Ub
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rzd W w
UNLb U< wDM U<d( WdE b& wFOD s<
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b? 5? W?O?J?K?* r?zd? 5? W?I?F? d?O?D?H? w
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b? b?I wDM U<d( uNH* U h
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u??D?< v?K? W?? U?F wDM U<d( uNH< U d`c
r
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w
qL* BLUA,1977 dO t<bI U< dD c l< wIK
sd U& p o
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dB bF W<uB)U uFAK uKO1 UM
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UI

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rzd' s< dO`
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w?
v?? d?: U?N wLM w WUL' q lI nMF rzd WjU
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q?J?M?O?
U? W pc` WOIdF WUL' q b qI s<
XMO w UMU` u w
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wKu` ULU S
c WOIdF WUL' q Xb qI rzd s<
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UN s< w UO 5 b W1d' sU 5 jd WOUL
q W1d' bF< UH v lL: w
UUL' b w
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s?< t?U??M?? s?J?1 U?< U?O? c? q??< s?< d?`c WUL q`
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hM (BROWN, 1975) (Holmes,1972) dE AGGRESSION
bFU uFAU d
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t vK UdEM c
W<uB) pK S
UOIeO

UO
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W?O?U?L?? U?I??D? s?< d?
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w?U?L?? d( d
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uJ U<bM bju< b< bOI< rN<U<
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w??
HASMANN & QUIGLEY, 1982, P:218 U????U???? U?? b?I
r?N?? U?N?M? XHA` w UIF rN ZzUM rNAIUM< dF<
W?<u?B?) W? d`c YO W<uB) WdE l< U?C? oH
hK: qB w WHK:< WUL s< UC U& dH UN dFA w
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b_ UNNOu UNGdH s< UNM<
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WHK:< WG d_ WUL' pK uJ U<bM hKI UJ c q<
HASMANN & QUIGLEY, b??I??F? tM tG s nK:< s
UUMI qI dODH c 1982, P:218
HASMANN & QUIGLEY, 1982, w?K??u?` U?LU UL`

.U?` bM w<u 5<UC0 U w

cQ d WdE P218
W?U?L?' d?O?U?F?< U?U?H?< w?U?JD sU W1d' 5 WIF dODH
U?
U?I?? u??< u? w?
p?J?H? qK v qO9 UNL qzU
s?< U?U?O? s 1976 BAYLEY, w?K?O? k? U?L?` W?U?B?*
r?`U?; wzUM' ldAU` UEM vK UHK WOUL UO
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W?O?
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(HASMANN & QUIGLEY, 1982, wKu` ULU gIU UL`

UAIUM* c rEF< d`c W1d' sU 5 WIF WFO P:209)

UJD 5 sU UH< wML{ d
s< oKDM dH UN b
bbF UM S
p s< rd vK WIOI( w
b dU qJA
l?L?: w
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66

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(VOLD, 1958, w?U?L?? uKD WOUL UOKLF WOB:A
U< dB b WOHOJ U?OUL

dODH bu
bI bI
p.203-219)
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68

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tOK Wb
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(VOLD, 1958, PP.209-212 dU< uB
v? r?N?F?
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vA 5<d: UL`
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69

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VOLD, 1958, PP.213-214 lLLK wUOD rOEM w

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70

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74

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b rju WdE rju wUL jC Anticipation Theory)
101

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WOM_ UbU oKF U< U< W1d'
w? pK U?C? d?D?I lUD WOM_ Ub s< dO` b
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102

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d?N? w?? p?K? b* UuK wIdA ULA b< pOHU
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d?N? U?< U?b? pK ZzU s< nMF rzd l< wK U&
UJD r s< q` W1d' r 5 b uD< vK WI u
d?A? q?J? U?O?H?AD* d bF< UH_ UO
wUJD dOG
dIH U< UJD s< dA qJ UO_ bF< UJD s<
w?? U?b? s?< b?F? Y?U? UNBB:
wU qBH s< WUD
p?K? s?L?
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b?F?< UM 5
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wdF lLLK WUBI WOUL hzUB) YU UNBB:

103

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W??u??d?? W?U?B??I W?O?U?J?D? d?R?*U? q?B??
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WOB dOG* U<WOU*
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108

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dAM b* 3_ wb fOuU` dI c s< UOMODL) cM< WOb
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w b WOLM Yb uD< dHK w<uI U bF<
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109

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s??d??` U?< d?? W?U?D?? 5? W?O?zU?B? W? W?I? W?
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V?OB bF< q1 c DECILE AND THE DECILE RATIO)
WFIu d qb VOB v vK_ dAF w
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113

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UI YU
c BOLLEN,1980, 5Ku dR< s< WOUOD WOdIu1b
W?{U?F* Wd Wd w
qL UF WD U w
cQ
U??` U?O?? U?U?:?? W?b? W?O?<u?J?( U?uIF WOUL'
5dA* UO 5uD*
W?O?zU?M?? t?I w
dOG* c U b bI
dOG* c d qOK
t??I w
U< WOzUB W U?U U?O?U?? jd< WOJK* rzd bF0
dOQ WjU) Wb t<UF< 5 bI
b qOK% dUG bF<
UOzUB

W XDO UN WOU <UF< XU` WOJK* rzd bF< w

Gartner,1990, d?M?U?I W?1d?' w?

UD* b d u s2
sdR< b:U dMUI UI bI UD* bF U`d<

dOG< b: c
b?I?
_ U< dOG* c UOI wDM U<d( wIOI( U<d( s< qJ
q?b s< WOUL UMO<Q vK UH VOB WD s< tUI
GINI INDEX wMO dR< s< tUI bI
wDM U<d( U< w<uI

114

 d?M?U?I b? b?I?
U?UO qOK d_ q s< U?uD<

d?R?< W?O?U?L?? U?MO<Q vK UH WD U* bF dOG<

Y?O? u?M? dLF VD b; qI rzd bF< w
dR wMO
r?zd bF< vK U?O?DJ dR WOUL UMO<Q vK UH 5
uD< bM UOzUB

t UL` UFOL uM dLF VD b; qI

qI rzd bF< bb% w
dOG< uI dOG* c UL
\
qb w
sUK wMO dR< UL` u
UL
WM UH_ b
dO t uM dLF VD b; qI rzd bF< w
wU dOQ
uM dLF VD b; qI rzd bF< s< W l< UOzUB
l{d UH_ UH_ b
(AGE STRUCTURE)

: UJ0K dLF VOid

t??M? w? dOG* s< Wb UJD dLF VO`d dOG< dF

U2 UID p Wb uD< vK W1d' U< w
5U s< b UN
w?<d? u?K?D?U? d?L?F? U?? s?< U??_ s?< b?b?F? t?O? d?OA
UI s< Ub pK rEF< oKDM(Hirshi & Gottfredson)dE
d{ d< b uD< vK W1d' W w
dLF WQD0 c_ Q
WdA r w
WOUMB dO WOUMB b 5 dOJ UHK dE

5? U?O
u WuB) UU& U
s U( WFOD "UM WOUA
WdA WD X<b: bI Ub pK s< dO` S
c b pK
dLF VO`dU U w
c U<U
v 5 U< WFIu WOUJD
W?OU WI s U qJA Ub pK XHA` bI Wb UJD
Ub c s< qI W1d bF< 5 UJDK dLF VO`d 5

115

dN w Hansmann and Quilgley,1982 wKu` ULDU W

qI W1d bF< w
UOU

dR U<U
5GU UJD WD
WKb b 5 qI W1d bF< w
sUU RM w
dOG< uI t
rN w

V?O?`d?? d?OG0 U w
c bI Gartner,1990 d?M?UI UL`
UOD bFU tOK oK U< UOI UL w sdOG* bQ` dLF
WD dMUI lIu DEMOGRAPHIC CONTEXT w
du1b
rzd bF< du qJA be lL: w
UA 5GU b_
b v uJOD
UH_ b qI rzd bF< U< 5GU b qI
r?U?L? d sc UJD WD dMUI b: bI d?Q qI U<
b* 3 w
du1b uMD UJ s< Uc w U<U 5
q?O?K dOG* UOI UN DEMOGRAPHIC YEAR BOOK
WdLF WH w
5FIu UJD WD dOQ dMUI b bI
UUO
WIF U& UL` qI bF< lOL l< UOzUB

dO
UH_ b W<U UDM b qI rzd bF< b UNFOL l< wDJ
u 5 U< 5FIu
(Conklin and Simpson,1985) u?D?L?O? 5KJu` W UL`

dU< wU dOQ lL: w

u`c UA UJD WD dN
u?I w?U? u? dOG* c Wb dN UL` qI W1d bF< w

s? Wb XHA`qI rzd bF< vK dOQ w

w
du1 dOG<
pK Q UU uI cbOIF WGU UN WOD XDO WIF pK
uB) cN WIUD Ub tdI U2 bOIF d` WI WIF

116

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u? s?< U?F?L??: i?F? w?

W?1d?' w iF k UL`
wuM' rOKI w
U( u UL` Wb q W1dK wLOKI sU
UM S
Wolfgang and Ferracuiti,1967 dE b* Uu w

rN
w
UN<d Wb tO
lI c w
dG' rOKI WOL vK b` s2
5??U?? iF k bI
qI rzd bF< w
b 5 sU
UO<uu` pODJ* WjU WOMO UJd< w
nMF rzd UH
WdH* WuA) u U& vK uI w
UI eO`dK iF e c
U b& u`c b WOB:A U<uI< rQ` MASOCHISM
U?H?K?D?U` WOMO b bCF w
qI W1d' lHd* bF* v
q?O?K??? s?< b c c v 5U iF bI u`
(WOLFGANG AND FERRACUTI dE W
dD< ULOI UU
1967; CONKLIN AND SIMPSON 1985; KICK AND LAFREE
1985

v?K? W?1d?' d?O?D?H? w?

r?O?K?I d?OG0 c w Ub s<
XN w Ortega et.al,1992 s?d UIO W b uD<
c? W?O?JK* qI rzd bF< vK dR rOKI Q uI v
U?? b?F< WUBI dOG* dOQ s qID< wIOI dOQ
d?L?F? V?O?`d?? W?O?
d?u?1b dOG* GNP/PC U?F? w?<uI
W?O?zU?M? d?O?G??< v? W?OM pK uU R e bI UJDK
c S
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UI
n?MF W
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117

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WdA U
UI uM v UM dEM
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d w W
UI s< uM
s?< nMF rzd' 5b s< UMN
b 5 nMF rzd bF<
uO b< s< nMF rzd w
b 5 dODH U
c? U?M c GARTNER,1990 d?M?U?I R? s?< nMF W
UI
U?b? b?B? c?N d`c w
UI UODU UL U< X% WUD*
CROSS-NATIONAL LEVEL STUDIES W?U?I?* W?O?{dF WOb
dE nMF s< WHK:< u 5 UU u vK W X<bI w
vK uDM RUSSELL 1972; ARCHER AND GARTNER,1984
dODH c iF qI rzd bF< w
dHK WO
UI dODH
nMF vK d UOU

UOLOI UID fJF UU c dH

5 w
STRAUS,1983 d?E? dBK WO p tM vNM
dU< dO dU< qJA U` u nMFK dF d bIF
n?M?F? vK uF nMFK u/ UD s< U< nMF bu
dMUI bIF BANDURA,1973 dE nMF b{ WOUD( hOKI
sJ1 oH u{u* c XUM w UO_ GARTNER,1990
U?O?<u?J? U* nMF uO u vK U qJAUNM< rNH
dH sLO dMUI oKD p s< w<d nMF UH v R
U?L?_ l?OL' 5uM J qI rzd bF< vK hM c
w
X`U w b pK w
qI WuIF qLF w b w
lHd
d?R?< ? d?M?U?I b?: bI WO< U`UA< dOJ d(
n??M??F?? W??<d??j b??< u?? f??J??F? c? w?
U?I?? b?F?? U?O?I?
c? q??I? W?u?I? UE u fJF uj dOG< UNw<uJ(
118

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WOK_ d( b w
qL UNOU AND SOCIAL COUNCIL,1985)
qL ULNU w<U 5 Wb UNO
X`U w WOb
r s< WLD uOK< qJ UF* pK uDI sc u<_ b w

d??M?O? u?L? s?< t?U?U?O? c? c? d?( u?A? q??I U?J?D

dMUI b bI
UUO pK qOKSMALL AND SINGER,1981
q?I bF< qO1 UN{U w d( w
UI b lH w b
5GU b UL_ W
U` s< 5DM' b WuI uB UH v UN
U?G?B? UH_ l{d UH_ b pc` 5DM' ` s<
j?d t UNIOD Wb w
qI WuI uUI u UL` u
U? b? U?L?_ W?
U?` s< 5DM' b qI rzd bF< UHU
u UGB UH_ b pc` u
UL
U<U UGU
(POPULATION HETEROGENEITY) : wUJ0 sU

W1d' w b U w
c w UFL: hzUB s<
u?D? W? q?` q? w?UJD sUU qB U< b uD< vK
d?Q?? b? 5? W1d' bF< 5U R 5 UI
w
UI fU vK UU UM e`d Wb q UJD fU& b0
uGK wMb wIdF fU p w
U0
U??b??`U??< r??N??U??? w?
b?F?? c?N? c? c? 5??U?? s?<
Cross-Sectional W?O?{d? U?U?O b: c McDonald,1976,
W UN<uI WMO w
W1d' wUJD sU 5 WIF hH WO

119

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vK qI bF< v Wb c w
vN bI
d?O?Q? t 5 rK
dF sb w
sU WGK w
sUU
d?O? d?_ r?zd?' s?< b?F? b?F< w
dOG* c d UL`
u?GK wMb sU W sU dOG< `C qI
UI p u{ w
bF* c vK dOQ UNM< _ fO wIdF
JA* dODH ib iIUM c tzU v bO`QU Ub`U<
bIF w UJD 5 sU dR< d`c W1dK WOUL
U<U9 XKA
bI WFj u< UNuK qF& w JA* c V UN
t UNOK X<UI w WODOzd UUO w

1982 HANSMANN & QUIGLEY, wKu` ULDU bI bI

sUK t UNOK X<UI c UOI* w

p UONM<

Ub`U< W
UOx dODH bI r Ub`U< W Ud YO UdE

UJD 5
dF U<UI bI
c W1d' UJD 5 sU 5 jd w WOUL
5? U?JD 5 sU 5 WIF dDH w WdEM d_ s< WuL<
(ENTROPY wd dR< b:U wKu` ULDU UI UL` W1d'
d?F? s?b? W?G?K? Y?O? s?< U?J?D 5 sU UOI INDEX)
t?OK X<UI c UOI* s< UH` d` U?UOI< tO
Ud cK qb
s?J?1 c? X?Iu? w?
t?Q? u?I v UON Ub`U< W
tS
UJD 5 sU v WOK` b 5 qI bF< w
sU eF
fOUI< 5 qI bF< 5 Wdu WI UM Q uI sJ1 c l<
HANSMANN & QUIGLEY, 1982, P:217 UJD 5 sU

120

(URBANIZAION)

: dC

u??D?< v?K? W?1d?' U? s?< b? w?

dC dOG< b:
bF< 5 WODJ WI u v U qJA Ub c dOA b
ULDU W Ub c s< UNO
qI rzd Wb w
dC
U w
c w HANSMANN & QUIGLEY,1982, wKu`
w? b* w
uAF sc UJD WD s< UUI< dC dOG0
bF< w
b 5 dODH w
u
UL
WLD rC
bF< 5 dC 5 WOK WI u s rN dH bI qI
u?D??L?O? 5?K?J?u?` b?:?? U?L?` W?HOF{ WI XU` qI
jU{ dOGL` dOG* c CONKLIN AND SIMPSON, 1985, P:175
5KJu` b bI b* w
5LOI* Wb UJ WD s< UUI<

d?O?G??< CONKLIN AND SIMPSON, 1985, P:179 u?D??L

qI rzd bF< w
dOQ WO
du1b dOG* uI u dC
b?F?< q?I U?LK` WdC( oUM* w
5LOI* UJD WD XFH ULK`
q?ju w ZzUM bR WOM c d`c Wb w
qI rzd
HANSMANN AND QUIGLEY,1982 w??K????u??` U??L?D?U? U?N?
W?ODJ WI b YO MESSNER, 1980, P:190 d?OMDO<
sdOG* 5 WHOF{ XU`
b* uD< vK W1d'U dC WI UM d`cU db' s<
W XHA` bI
Wd WI Ub s< b p s XHA` UL`
WUI* rN w
ARCHER AND OTHERS,1978 sd dO
d??J b*U qI rzd bF< s dCU qI rzd WI s

121

oUM* Q bIF UL` rUF rEF< w

dGB b* w
tM< vK
q??I? r?zd w
WOb< bF< uJ lIu* s< U?<u?L WOHd
WdC( oUM*U WUI<
(POPULATION DENSITY) :WOUJ0 WUJ

vK W1d' dODH w
WOUJD W
UJ X<b: w Ub rEF<
W?1d?' 5? W?O?U?J?D? W
UJ 5 Wd WI s dH b uD<
p?J?H??U?` W?1d?' d?O?D?H?? XIdD w WdEM uI* iF pc bR<
U?L?D?U? W? U?b? c? s?< p? u?? w?<u wUL
U??? w
c w HANSMANN & QUIGLEY,1982 w?K?u`
uKO` qJ U:_ b s< UUI< qI bF< W w
dOG* cN
WHOF{ WOK WI u s Wb dH bI jU{ dOGL` ld< d<
W? 5?D?L? U?L vK rzUI uLM WU w
qI W1d bF0 \
w
d?
u??< s?J? r c qb b WKID* dOG* b j{ bM p
\ WuI WOU WI s UN Wb dH UL` WOuOA b WU
j??{ bF p W 5F vK rzUI uLM WU w
qI W1d bF0
U?N?M? d
u w WOuOA b UF qb UNO
U0 WKID* dOG*
c?? s?< (HANSMANN & QUIGLEY, 1982, pp.213-215): q??b??
(CONKLIN AND SIMPSON, uDL 5KJu` W UC Ub
W
UJK UOzUB

wU dOQ u s rN XHA` w 1985, P:175)

d?O?M?D?O?< W? Z?zU?? l?< o?H? ZzU w qI rzd bF< w
WOUJD
qOK WUN w
dOMDO< ZzU Q ULK uB) cN 1980 MESSNER,
CONKLIN AND SIMPSON, 1985, P:1180 UOzUB W XDO

122

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U?O?_U?` d?G?B? U?u??D?* vK u tM dH U* d?E

u?H? U?b? W?1d??K? u?`c UJ s< rOUI_ b* WOMJD

W?u?` d?U? W?1d?' Q? u?I? v? iFU c d<_ U
vK W1d' U s< b X<UI bI
WHOK)
r?N?
w
qID< dOGL` UDM v u`c bF< b:U b uD<
b? U?N e w b XU` U< d W1d' w
WOb uH
W1d' bF< UH d_ b s< W{d d` U vK u`c
u?D??L? 5?K?J?u?` U?N? U?I w?? W?b? U?b? c? s< UN
d?O?G??< U?<b?:?? YO CONKLIN AND SIMPSON, 1985, P:175
d?E? WO<UM b Q p ULd KF UDM v u`c bF<
b?F?< Q? b?I?F cN UDM b UN e WCH:M* uLM bF*
bF< W w
U w
c s< b <U qJA UDM v u`c
U?d?E? l?Iu??O u`c b UHU eOL lL< Q
qI rzd
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bF< w
U v u`c bF< 5 WOD dO WI u s rN
d?`c U??O? d?O?G??* c? nC r WuI dO WI UNMJ qI rzd
Wb tOK X<UI w uLM s< dDH* sUK
(Natural Population Growth): wFOD wUJ0 uLM

W1d' w iF U w
Uc w WO
du1b dOG* s<
5?K?J?u?` U?I bI
wFOD wUJD uLM dOG< w
du1b uEM* s<
s? U?L?N?? w
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du1b qb*
w?UJD uLM b bI The Rate of Natural Increase WOFOD
U?2 q??I? W?1d? b?F?< w
WOzUB W wU dOQ wFOD
q??I? W?1d? b?F?< U?H? v?K? f?J?FM WbK wUJD uLM vMF
CONKLIN AND SIMPSON, 1985, PP:175,181UN
(Population Size): UJ0 r

W?1d?' W? w
U w
c w WO
du1b dOG* s<
PULATION SIZE U?J?D? r?? dOG< UC wb uD* vK
(CONKLIN AND SIMPSON, 1985, uDL 5KJu` b: bI

b w
UJD r s< UUI<

rN w
dOG* c P:175)
r??? W?O?U?J?D? W?
U??J? U?? s?< t?U?FIu U0 p d uOK*U
w?
U?J?D? r( wU dOQ u v rN XN bI UJD
v? p? l?L??: r? ULK` t wMF U2 qI rzd bF<
tO
qI rzd bF< UH
(INFANT MORTALITY RATE): l{d UOu bF$

b s< UN<b: U w dOG* s< l{d UO

u dOG< dF
w?
U??
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p? l?< W?O?U?L?? u?K?F? w?
5??U??
r?E?F?L?
d?O?G??* c? b?:?? nI w b U{d

U?M? W?O?U?L?? W?OLM dR< s< d?R?< t?<b?:?D Ub

U? t??<b?:? UL` WUBI WOLMK d?R?< t?<b:D U
W w
U( u UL` p lL: w
UD* b dRL` d
CONKLIN AND SIMPSON, 1985, P:176 u?D??L? 5?KJu`
124

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UE c qb dOG* b dOG* c U<b: YO
WOIdA WKJ b dF U< U` YO WIUD WOuOA WKJ b d
u
b?I
cN d_ b w
W
dF* WIdDU qb s UUO dAM
U?O?I< t_ d?E? q?b?K? q?b??` l{d UO
u bF< UU b:
u?ju? Q? d? p? d?? W?O?U?L?? U?D?* bF UD
b? w?
d?I?H UJDK WDMU WOB U<b) s< UH
U?I??DU WUI< b< d< WUBI UD* b s< lHd* uD*
(CONKLIN AND SIMPSON, u?D??L? 5?K?J?u` b bI WOMG
q??I rzd bF< w
uI dR l{d UO
u bF< 1985, P:182)
s< UM WUI< UD* b ULK` t vMF U2 wU dOQ U&
d`c qI rzd bF< lH Wb w
l{d UO
u bF<
W?O?L?M?? d?R?< U? b?M v dLD WOj WO WOM c Q
j{ bM v t UL` Wb WUF* v UOzUB b dO WUBI
U?e? d?O?G?< u bM UO( UFIu bF< q< s< d dOG<
SUPPRESOR W?H=FC
< U? u? s nAJ r qOK S
WOUJD
qI rzd bF< w
l{d UO
u bF< dOQ EFFECTS
(DETERRENCE)

: W1d' s bB WuIF

W1d' U/ iF dODH w
WuIF dOG< 5U iF b:
w??J?d?< v?K? l?L?: UNFIu w WuIF r d
vK p
s?< UN w<d uKD bF< r vK dR w<d uKD
STACK,1984, U? W WuIF dOG< UN b: w Ub
p WOJK* rzd s t w
jU{ dOGL` dOG* c UN w

125

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w?U?IF UEM Q WKzUI dEM WN vK U?L

t? bB cN U d`c TITTLE AND LOGAN,1973, W?1d'U

W?uMF< WU< WbD WHKJ XU` u WHKJ UH lIu* s<
U UI bI w<d uKD bF< iH v R W1d' s< bzUF
U?N?O??J?d< vK iI w WOJK* rzd WD s< dOG* c UOI
Wd< UD Q` WOJK* rzd wJd< vK iI bF< v U dEM
U?O?K?F? U?uIFK WDMU d{ l{ tQ bIF W1d' UJ vK
U<dG q< s< WUJ UB q<uF W<dj d`_
d qOK sD PROBATION uKD W<UIU bOI* sD s<
dOG< w
U?O?zUB wDJ dHj dOQ t U b dOG* c
bF< w
dOG* c dOQ 5 bI
b qOK% w
U< WOJK* rzd
UOzUB

fO t UODJ U` WOJK* rzd

(Economic Development Index): WUB8 WOLM dR$

s?< W?1d?' d?O?D?H?? WOLM uNH< b: s< 5U s< UM

W wb uD* vK W1d' dODH p X<b: w Ub
b?F? CONKLIN AND SIMPSON,1985, u?D??L? 5KJu`
V`d< dOGL` tF< q<UF r U< U UOzd

dOG* c S
WOLM Vu
b: bI WOLM tOK oKD U< UNuL< w
qJA WOze djUM s<
WIUD N bF< dOG< UL sdOG< WOLM UOI uDL 5KJu`
b?F?< d?OG< PER CAPITA ENERGY CONSUMPTION d?HK
NUMBER OF U??J??D?? s??< W??zU??< q??J?? W??<b??:??D?* n?u?N? b?
U????????I b???????I TELEPHONES IN USE PER 100 INHABITANTS

126

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wzUNM qOK w
sdOG* rC UU
b?F< w
dOG* c d qOK WUBI WOLM u q<U dOG< v
W?O?L?M?? d?O?G??< 5?? u?D??L? 5?K?J?u?` W? w?
q?I rzd
vMF U2 wK uN
dOQ U& U< UOzUB d fO WUBI
W? d?O? d?O?G?j U?e? WDd< WUBI WOLM s< WDUN bF*
d?B?M s< dBM q` U bM v qI rzd bF< w
UOzUB

b vK q` h: WzU< qJ nuN b WIUD N dOG*

l?< U?L?N?L?{ W?U? s?< o?? U?2 qI Xj dDH* sU WOL` S

ZzU l< UNuI b< WIF U& YO s< ZzUM c oH iF

W?O?L?M?? 5? d?OGj WODJ WI b w WELLFORD,1974
qI rzd bF< 5 WUBI
(INTEGRATION LEVEL): wUL r u0$

qID< dOGL` Wb w

wUL r uD< dMUI b:
GARTNER,1990 dMUI bIF b 5 W1d' w
UH dODH
b?{ W?U?L?( j??C dO
u .bI vK b bI dH* s< t
UDR*U d
_ jd wUDd XU` ULK` uI rE uJ nMF
<UJ

UA d` iF UNCF WOUL UDR* WOUL

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s? dOJ s UNUUO ULH b bI& v R U2 UNUUD[ W&UJ
f?U?) q?BH w& UMH[ b[ b pK w& WOUL UO( Vu
UU& UB h= ULO& p s bb dUE vK Wb c s
wdF rUF w& WOzUM' WbF rE UOKL W1d'
U?N?C?F?? d?A? W?F_ WOI* WKI* dOG* W[ h& ULH
r[ b' UNOK u w udO qUF ZzU s iF
U& UOU
UU iF UNCF jd dOG* c s dOH
b dNE
W[UD N bF W[F VMU U( u ULH \ U( iF w&
bF WOHUN uD) b bF wUL wuI "UM bF s qJ
WKI* dOG* c b= S& cN dE

U* qO vK UHK eN
W?b?? ?U?F?* dbI vK dR u dU b qOK% w&
W1d' dR w& dOG* pK U WIO[ dO dbI UNKF WUOF*
WGU WOI* WKI* dOG* c b S& d VU s VU s c
bF* vK be Wb* U( b l VUM dOG dA WF
u{ w& U fL qH qUI b qI dOG w& qL* uI*
d?O?G??* c? h?O?K?I? ? s? sJ2 UOUJ pK U& S& p
U `{u u U u vK UN wKUF qOK od s WKI*

283

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r. b
WKI3* dOG* 5 U udO q:UF: W.uHB:

dOG*

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\ \
\ \
\ \
\ \
\ \
\ \
\ \
\ \
\ \
\ \
\ \
\ \

284

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WOhN UF dR:
WOzUdNJ W.UD N bF:
dHK wUL w:uI "UM bF:
WOb WUO3 bF:
WOzU3M WULF W3
WOUJ3 WUJ
WOUJ3 WOFOD Ue W3
rOKF vK UH W3
lOc* b bF:
WOHUN uD) b bF:
UHK eN bF:
dC( UJ bF:
dC( UJ uLM uM3 bF*
WOU) ubK wKJ bF*

 r. b lU

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dOG*

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WOUJ3 WUJ
WOUJ3 WOFOD Ue W3
rOKF vK UH W3
lOc* b bF:
WOHUN uD) b bF:
UHK eN bF:
dC( UJ bF:
dC( UJ uLM uM3 bF*
WOU) ubK wKJ bF*

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\ \
\ \
\ \
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\ \

r. b lU

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\ \

285

dOG*

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UHK eN bF:
dC( UJ bF:
dC( UJ uLM uM3 bF*
WOU) ubK wKJ bF*

WKI3* Wb dOG* wK:UF qOK

d& U WOKOK% WKOuH U U wKUF qOK b=
d?F?? u?U u UbM p fOUI* UM oKF ULO& WJU WO
(General U?U?

U????Hd?? q?J?A? d?O?G??* s? W?u?L?? X?U?H U?L?

d?? d?O?G??* p?K? d?F w duE s dU fJF Construct)
W?OLM dUE fJF w dOG* l ? U( u ULH UN dR
b qU X% b U U dOG* c qL& WUB[ WOUL
q?O?K??? b?=??? U? w?K?UF qOKK UNUC bM WOLM
U{d&U WIKF* WOzUB JA* iF W'UF* dSH wKUF
v? WKI* dOG* dH WKJALH dUG bF qOK ULM WJU)
b? W?d?OH dOG* b 5 VUMK uI* bF* UU& W
f?L? q?H q?UI b qI dOG w& qL c Wb* U(
R? w?? W?K?I* dOG* 5 WOUF UU WKJALH U
b qOK% w& WUOF* Wb UNUF rO[ U b v
iF U u U/ wKUF qOKK UMb= S& UI* c w&
dOG* s b 5 WOU UU u w& WKL* WONM* UOUJ
U UOUJ c s b' w& UM `C U b vK WKI*
Wb* U( b l WKI* Wb dOG b VUM h=
c bF dOG w& WKL* Wb c w& WKI* dOG* bF&
U?( b U?I?U? p? U?M? 5? ULH uIH* UUO dOG*
UNCF w& dOG* c iF Z UMOK r WU WGU Wb*
c? w?K?U?F? q?O?K??? o?d? s? W?O?zUM qu v UNKu% iF
wNM* d c ZzU U{u b'
286

 r. b
s WIM* q:uF s: q:U qJ d3H* sU s q:UF: WLO.
WKI3* Wb dOG* WOU_ d>UMF qOK% WId wK:UF qOK
wLhd d3H* sU d3H* sU W3
\
\
\

\
\
\

s WLO.
\
\
\

q:uF
_ q:UF
wU q:UF
YU q:UF

qOK s WIM* quF b `{uO& r[ b' UU&

q?O?K??? W?I?d? b?=S& dA WF_ WKI* dOGLK wKUF
WId ULU (Principal Components) WOU_ dJUMF wKUF
WLOI b=U (Varimax) vK_ sUU W&dF* (Rotation) db
quF bF UOFLH (Eigen Value) s WLOI v bH `OJ b
iF uIH* rOI UJ ju* WLO[ S Wdu' Wb
W?L?O?[ X?d? j?I& qu W p s o bI& WKI* dOG*
ULH \ u v YU qUF l U( u ULH \ 5 U UN s
UNM _ qUF b' s `C ULH _ qUF l U( u
W?K?I* dOG* lOL 5 wKJ sU s \ s u? dH
s u?? Y?U qUF s u?? w?U?? qUF dH 5 w&
dOG* pK 5 sU s \ tuL U sU s [
W w WKI* dOG* 5 WOKH sU U W vK be U
WHdA* hzUB) fJF WKI* UF_ pK S& U( WFOD WOU
287

r?? U?N?U?O?L?? UF_ pK WOU S& c UN WuJ* dOG* 5

w?& q?u?F? p?K? X?I??? w?? dOG* WFO u{ w& U?U

U?b?b%
UNzu{
- bI& WKI UF du s quF c tK9 U vK dFK
(Factor UFA UU rO[ 5 c r[ b' b
U?L?J?& t? WuJ* dOG* W quF s qU qH 5 Loadings)
s qU qH S& WOzUB OK s uM c q w& dF u
dH_ dOG* WFO u{ w& UL bb% r qOK s WIM* quF
UF_ pK fJF WKI* dOG* pK U vK p t UU

dOG* pK 5 UHdA

ULU[ WKI* UF_ pK uJ WKI*

288

 r. b
s WIM* q:uF 5 Factor Loading UFA U bF:
UN WuJ* dOG* wK:UF qOK

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WOhN UF_ dR:

WOzUdNJ W.UD N bF:
dHK uKOJU
wUL w:uI "UM bF:
wJd:_ bU dHK
b WOb WUO3 bF:
WbK sbu UO3
WOzU3M WULF W3
WOUJ3 WUJ
WOUJ3 WOFOD Ue W3
vK w:uJ( UH W3
wLOKF UDI
(RADIOS) lOc* b bF:
WL3 n WzU: qJ
qJ WOHUN uD) b bF:
WL3 n WzU:
WL3 n WzU: qJ UHK eN bF:
dC( UJ bF:
dC( UJ uLM uM3 bF*
WOU) ubK wKJ bF*
Wb s: WuKD*

WFO vK dF qON p u& UL& \ u WGU UU vK UM dB[*

dOG* c s WIM* quF

289

d??H d??H _ qUF k r[ b' v dEMU

5? s?U??? nB UI U \ u mK c sU s b[
d?A? s? q?U?F? c o b[ U??d?I? W?b? u?? WOdF b
t UNM UM j 5 w& Wd uB t UNM WOUL j dOG
qUF cN UNU j/ dOG* pK WFO hH WOJ uB
W?U?B??[ WOLM bF fJF qUF c Q uI `{u s tS&
W?U?B??[ W?OLMK dRLH b= U U w dOG* s dOH bF&
uD) bF wUL wuI "UM bF W[UD N bFLH
W?L?O?I? q?U?F cN UNM qH U U& UHK eN bF WOHUN
\ \ \ \ u t UNUU WLO[ XGK \
b? b?F? d?C( UJ bFLH dOG* WOI ULH wu vK
YO UOU

U?d
U?U? qUF cN jd WOUJ W&UJ lOc*
wu vK \ \ \ XGK
d?D?I?H W?O?d??? W?O?dF b rO[ uJ bF* s fO c
W?OdF b WOI WLO[ iH=M 5 w& qUF c w& WOU XuJ
dOG WOb WUO bF dOG s qH U S& UM s tO& fL)
u t ULNU mK WOJ uB qUF cN WOzUM WULF W
W?O?d? WOdF b v dR wu vK \ \
dOG s qH UH=U l[u u ULH eOL WUB[ WOLMU eOL*
S?& p? v? W?&U?{ U?N WOzUM WULF W dOG WOb WUO
_ qUFU Wd uB WOUJ WOFOD Ue W dOG U
W?O?d?F? b?K? W?&d?F?* W?O?U?J UU& b d W s bHR
b cN& b c w& ld wUJ uLM w& qL* WOd
290

UO&u dU UH= VU s UNO& WuB) bF UHU W&dF

wFOD wUJ uLM vK fJF c d_ d VU s UN l{d
c w& d_ rOEM Zd UO u{ w& WJU b c w& ld
U?N?M? d?OJ& WdA Uu[ 5u b c WU( VU s b
U?N WdA uI w& lUA UH s wUF Uu dD[ XuJUH
UN qLF u[ uL s WKO{ W WOK; WdA uI qJA YO
\ u WGU qUF c UdH w WFHd* sU W qF
W?OUL ruI s rd vKF& p bHR U UNO UA*
b c WKb dOH wdF rUF 5 WHdA* WO&UI
bLF* UHOMB v WUB[ UNUu w& dOH
U& nK=
b* 3_ wb pMUH dJ WOb ULEM* s WIM* bK
? vK_ b UuL w& WOd WOdF b s b lC
qb WDu b UuL w& UNM d iF lC ULH u/

d?E ? q?[_ b? u?L?? w& WOdF b WOI lC 5 w&

(World Tables,1995,p.763-764)

s? W?U?B??[ W?O?L?M qUF c S& U w& p cQ

Ud

dOQ WOdF b w& W1d' bF w& dOQ uJ l[u*

v?K?F?& b? c? w& WUB[ WOLM WFO s lU l[u c d
W?1d?' U?O? w?& d? b?[ W?U?B??[ U?u* UH s rd
uH WIOI U qJA WOd dUEU WOJ uB tUU
c w& UNLO[ UH l[u* WOd WOdF b w& WUB[ WOLM
uI UDI vK UNd VU s ld qJA Xb b[ qUF
q?L??; s? q?F dOH UQ WHK= U&UI s WOM_ WdA
291

W?1d?' b?F? w?& d qJA WUB[ WOLM dOQ dOH b v

lOMB dU uN U WOUMB bU& UA

d fO l{u c
U??* qO vK U( u ULH WOUJ e UHd tUJ c UN
u?UJO sdAF dI c lKD w& dJ WOJd_ bLK WMU
b?[ n?O?= qJA UN WOd dUE uD bN a uuO
5?K?O? f?d? U? U? s dH pK w& UL ULK
se* ld UB[ uLM vK p Vd b rdO udO
wb wUJ d( lOMB dU uD l
bI& sU s s u dH c wU qUFU oKF U U
W?d uB t j UNCF ?I

d?OG dA b tMuJ w& d

d?O?G??* c WFO hH WOJ uB t j d iF
u{u uI sJL* s tS& qUF c vK UNUFA UNU j/
d?OG* u[Q& WOUL WdA WOLM bF fJF qUF c
UDI vK wuJ( UH W dOG w& qL d qJA t WDd*
p?cH \ u wU qUFU dOG* c U mK c wLOKF
\ u?? w?U?? q?U?F?U tU mK c WOzUM WKUF W dOG
U? b?=??? w?? d?O?G??* s? dF u ULH dOG* U?C

WOLM dOG s b U U WOUL WdA WOLMK dRLH

(Radios) l?O?c?* b? bFLH qUF cN WOJ uB WUB[
UNUU XGK w UHK eN bF WOHUN uD) b bF
?? f?J?F? u?N?& \ \ \ u?? q?UF cN
U?N?B?zUB) U?I?& d? v? W? s? w?d?F? r?UF w& WOLM dU
WOdF b vK UeO9 5 w& WOd dO WOdF bU& WUB[
292

s? d?J?? d?H b c w& dN w WdA WOLMU WOd

W?U?L?F b pK U& qFH WOd WOdF b UNdOE
W?O?_ b?F? U??? W?O?zU??M? W?U?L?F? W UH q s p
WOd WOdF b s dQ UN WOdF b c Uu
WOU* UNbI qFH WOd WOdF bU& WUB[ WO UNOM w&
w?& W?O???? W?U?B??[ U?N?K?HUO duD s dOB[ d& w& XUD
c? w?& W?d?A?? W?O?L?M u Ju* UB UUD[
W?UB[ WOLM Wd u fHM uLM r WOd WOdF b
d?O?G?? U?? s?L?J c V u c UI w& UN
S?& p? u{ w& wU qUFU wJ qJA WUB[ WOLM
_ U?u? d?G?* u?? d?B?LH WOd dO WOdF b
W?O?dF b rO[ uJ 5 w& WFHd qUF c w& UNLO[ uJ
WCH=M qUF c w& XuJ dDIH WOd
k wU qUFU WDd* WKI* dOG* WOI v dEMU
W&UJ WOb WUO bF s qJ Wd uB jd wU qUF
UU pK XGK YO WOU) ubK wKJ bF* WOUJ
U vK bHR U p w& wu vK \ \ \ s H

b? U?N? e?O?L? w WdA WOLM fJF qUF c s dH

UHU WODHM WOdF b s eOL b pK& WOd dO WOdF
W?O?u?b?* r?? U?H?U? W?O?U?J? UN&UJ WOb WUO bF
m?U?? W?O?U?J? WOFOD Ue W dOG U U UN WOU)
w?UJ uLM vK dR uN& YU qUFU WOJ uB \
U?O?&u? d?U? U?H?= d?E? i?H?=?M? b? p?K? w?& w?F?O?D
293

 U?? w& UMF{ p w& Wd WuB) dU UH=

b pK w& oD qM bb% j{ v W&UN d_ rOEM Zd
U?N?O& X[u fH w& wb wuJ( rbU vE% WKu uI cM
UN WuB) bF UH= vK fJF U2
WdA WOLM qU qUF c l[u* s tS& p u{ w&
dO ULJ& UOJ

dOQ b pK w& W1d' dR w& dOQ uJO

f?J?F?M? WbU WdA WOLM UH S& Wb UO w& p v
UN WOd dUE UH= vK
s?U s \ s u?? dH c YU qUFU oKF U U
bF dOG0 jd qUF cN& WUO bF dOH b v fJF uN&
\ u t tU WLO[ mK b[ Uu[

Ud
UU WOb WUO
s UNO dEM sJ1 qUF cN jd w d_ dOG* WOI ULH
W?U?M?J u?D?? e?OL* WOdF bK WOzUM hzUB) fJF UN W
b? c?N?& U??* q?O vK Uu dG* bBLH p WUO
U??F??_ d??R?? w?b?? W?b? b?O?[ W?O?d?F? b? d?zU? s? e?O?L??
q?J?A qUF cN dOG* c U vK fJF U u WOHN
UHU eOL ULH \ u U p r mK bI& u[ wK
b? p?K? U?U?F?0 W?OdF dB WuNL WJU UN WOUJ W&UJ
s? W?d?C?( W??d?A? W??? U?HU WOU) ub s U qJA
UU

qUF cN jd W dOG* c Ub bI& c UJ

\ u?? U?U?? p?K XGK YO U qJA U?OU

U?O?U
wu vK \ \

294

UO_ WFd w& tO dO U u{ w& U w& p cQ

d?R? vK qUF c dOQ uJ l[u* s tS& WbK WIU
S?& U?I?U dO ULJ& U?d

d?O?Q? W?b bO[ WOdF b w& W1d'

w?& W?O?&U?I?? U?F_ WOL v dOA Wdu WUO dU
qFH WOHd( s wA dF w WOM pK U W w& W1d' WOM rN&
VU s c Wb v WHK= U&UI s dA s WKzU b u&
rNu[u WJdH TON U UU
5zUK wUO( jLM S& d VU s
WOub* r UNJF ULH WbK WOb WOF u ULH W1d' w&
Wb w& WOd dUE rN& w& rU sJ1 WbK WOU) WUF
U?N??L?E? U?H?H b? W?b? v?K? U?I?K?* U_ fJF VU s uN&
S?& d? V?U? s? lLLK WUB[ JA* q w& UNeN
p?K? q?( U?O c= Wb qF U0 Wb vK WOub* c rHd
Uu WOHN u* s UU l& q s UUO lMB WKJA*
dOUL' q[ s dL UdB uNE U qJA U2

WKI3* q:uF d_ bF* b qOK%

WO:d dUE w
WKI* Wb dOG* wKUF qOKU WJU) WIU dIH w&
WOLM qU s qH w& XK9 WKI W qu uu uI v UMON
UC
ULH WOb WUO qU WdA WOLM qU WUB[
w?& W?1d?' b?F? w?& q?uF c dOQ WFO s tF[u U v Ud
WUB[ WOLM qU s qJ Ud

dOQ UMF[u YO wdF rUF

UOJ
dOQ UMF[u 5 w& W1d' bF w& WOb WUO qU
bF* pK w& WdA WOLM qUF
295

W??? q?u?F? p?K? 5? W?[F qOK% UM dIH c w&

s? v?_ d?I?H w& UNO U o w WOUL W1d' bF
UOK U?d? bF* pK dQ b vK dFK p qBH c
 quF pK
s?d?O?G? US uI u UMS& W quF pK VU v
U?F? W?M? dOG s qH w& ULN qL WONM U_ sd
qJA w v s u_ w& WKL* UUOU U)
Q U) oK* dE fU) b* 3_ ` UNKL w u_
(Dummy Variable) uJ dOG w& qLO& wU dOG* U UBI
t UBI w& WHUA* WOdF b 5 WOLOK[ U& fJF
t?O?& W?L?O?I q9 5 w& WuO WOdF b tO& WLOI q9
WOId& WOdF b
dO UD_ U wKJA UH u U/ sdOG* sc b=
W????K????J???A??? (Homoscedasticity, or Constant of Errors) d???????H???*
w JA* s UKJA* (Autocorrelation) WOMe WO UU
(Pooled Regression lL: bF* b qOK% w& WKU uJ U U
dOG* UO[ w& Wb=* qOK b uJ YO Analysis)
w?LM w WM w wU lU UM Wb w wUJ lU
nOH=K 5KJA* 5U UH WONM* qzUu b UUO UN
W?u?[ W?I?U?D? U?U?O??K? b?? u?LM oUD v q[_ vK ULNM
jC ULb sdOG U w& qL (Model Fitness to the Data)
UM qL c dH* dO UD_ fU& b WKJA jC ULb
WOMe UU WKJA jC ULNOU wLOK[_ w&dG' dOG* w&
296

 U?F? d?O?G? w& UM q9 c (Autocorrelation or serial Correlation)

d b d c dHcU db' s UUO UN wLM w WM
u? q?O?B?H?? s? be* dF UD vK WKJA* c WNu* Wb=*
(Bennett and Lynch,1990 Ortega et al,1992) dE WQ* c
d?O?G??* W?M?? d?OG sdOG* sc UM U b&
b?I?H? W?? WKI* quF VU v 5DU{ sdOGLH wLOK[
d?O?G?* b 5 VUM WOJU tb= le* b uLM
d?&u? d??& v?KF& Wb* U( b 5 WDUC WdOH
v? w?&u??? d& p S& dOG qJ q[_ vK U WL
WU 5 WL vK UM Wb* U( b mK YO dOH b
dOG d&u  v_ b( vK U dA s be U
WU U X
d?H o?? U? v W&U{ uI b qOK% b= _ d?E

l?u?? U?N?L s UUO w& Ud&u s b w U{d& b vK

uIM UMS& WFU WKI* dOGLK (Normal Distribution) wFOD
w?? W?O?H?Ju? U?B? iF od s VU' c s bHQU

q?U?F? U?O?F?* d?? j?u?*UH dG cN b= U U?U

`?{u? U? u? r?[ b?' c? UOF* QD u

p ZzU

297

 r. b
WKI3* q:uF W1d' bF: lU dOGLK WOH>u UB iF

U( b UOF* QD) u q:UF:
Wb bO.
u Skewness

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dOG*

UOF*

\
*qI W1d bF:
\ * b W1d bF:
\ UB W1d bF:
\
W.d3 W1d bF:
*U:uL

\
W.d W1d bF:
*shU3*
\ UO rzd bF:
*ud
\ b< W1d bF:
\
WUJ wKJ bF*
rzd'
WUB. WOLM q:U

WdA WOLM q:U

WUO3 q:U
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**UF

UNF w UI
***Wb

wU wFO dO UFu UNu UOULdOGu

u% UNKu% - bF* c*
wMe w U WKJA hOKI jU{ dOG **
dH* dO UD_ fU& b WKJA hOKI uJ jU{ dOG ***

298

k?? W?1d?' b?F vK eOHdU uHc* b' v dEMU&

rzd WJU) bF* s qH w wFOD luK lC= UNM WF
UO rzd bF UuL W[d b qI
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