10.39 1.

45 129
16.67 2.33
1112355692 10082017012001901001720718917501767
 0.672
1- 0.328
1

AO DEMANDA (Yt) Demanda Estimada (Yt) Yt - Yt (Yt - Yt)" 2

1994 38 40 -2 4
1995 42 38.66 3.34 11.18
1996 45 40.9 4.1 16.79
1997 48 43.65 4.35 18.88
1998 38 46.57 -8.57 73.5
1999 45 40.82 4.18 17.51
2000 35 43.63 -8.63 74.4
2001 29 37.83 -8.83 78.01
2002 31.9
Promedio 40 Suma 294.27
Promedio 36.78
 REAL PRONOSTICO
T Yt Yt Et 0.70
1 1274 1274 0
2 1297 1,274 23 0 1
3 1317 1,290 27
4 1370 1,309 61
5 1347 1,352 5
6 1435 1,348 87
7 1333 1,409 76
8 1461 1,356 105
9 1209 1,429 220
10 1311 1,275 36
11 1246 1,300 54
12 1450 1,262 188
13 Pronostico 1,394
DAM 73.5
 1
 real pronostico
T Yt Yt Et
1 1274 1274 0
2 1297 1,274 23 0
3 1317 1,285 32
4 1370 1,301 69
5 1347 1,335 12
6 1435 1,341 94
7 1333 1,387 54
8 1461 1,361 100
9 1209 1,410 201
10 1311 1,311 0
11 1246 1,311 65
12 1450 1,279 171
13 Pronostico 1,363
DAM 68.5
 0.49

1
AOS X VENTAS (Y)
1989 1 75000
1990 2 84000
1991 3 78000
1992 4 86000
1993 5 83000
1994 6 87000
1995 7 92000
1996 8 92000
1997 9 97000
1998 10 95000
1999 11 101000
2000 12 110000
2001 13 119000
2002 14 116000
PROYECCION ANUAL DE VENTAS
AOS X VENTAS (Y)
2003 15 117022
2004 16 120101
2005 17 123180
2006 18 126259
2007 19 129338
2008 20 132417
Resumen

Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple 0.95139733
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2 0.90515687
R^2 ajustado 0.89725328
Error tpico 4339.78106
Observaciones 14

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crtico de F
Regresin 1 2156924176 2156924176 114.52472 1.7131E-07
Residuos 12 226004396 18833699.6
Total 13 2382928571

Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

Intercepcin 70835.1648 2449.88739 28.9136411 1.8225E-12 65497.3188
Variable X 1 3079.12088 287.724682 10.7016223 1.7131E-07 2452.22265
or crtico de F

Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%

Superior 95,0%
76173.0109 65497.3188 76173.0109
3706.01911 2452.22265 3706.01911