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R. PEARSE
stellt, Gebrauch gernacht wird. Uber den privaten Sektor beeinflussen sie auch di-
rekt den Umfang des Angebots. Diese auf einer Erhebung bei liindlichen Famitien
in mehreren Provinzen Indonesiens beruhende Studie stellt einen Versuch dar, Va-
riable und Kornbinationen yon Variablen zu finden, rnit deren Hilfe die tatsiichliche
Benutzung schulischer Einrichtungen durch die Farnilien vorausgesagt werden kann.
Die Analyse ergibt, class die folgenden dafiir niitzlich wiiren: Versorgung rnit Bil-
dungsrn6glichkeiten, Familienstrukturmerkmale, wirtschaftlicher Status der Familie
und Einstellung der Familie zur Bildung. Eine Anzahl komplizierterer und direkter
auf die Familienwiinsche bezogener Variablen werden zum Gebrauch in weiteren
Untersuchungen empfohlen.
However, the demand for education by the populace, unlike the sup-
ply, is not determined by the decisions of policy makers who are grap-
pling with the issues of national or regional development, but by the
desires of individual families which utilize education to provide for their
needs and the needs of their children. These demands of the population
create pressures to which governments often respond by the supply of
education from government resources, by allowing or encouraging non-
government bodies to provide the education, or by restraining the sup-
ply below the level of demand.
At least in some cases, the results of this response by government to
demand has been to nullify any definition of appropriate levels of sup-
ply by any of the development needs criteria indicated above. Indonesia
and the Philippines, for example, exemplify the over-expansion of the
supply of tertiary education compared with manpower and rate of re-
turn criteria in order to meet high levels of demand. By contrast, the
expansion of primary education in Indonesia has provided a level of
supply greater than the demand at current cost levels as evidenced by a
high rate of voluntary drop out from primary schools.
The current level of demand for education by a population is usually
represented by a participation ratio which expresses the proportion of
an age group at school. The participation ratio may result from a level
of supply which is less than the true level of demand, as when students
are refused admission to schools. It may result from a level of supply
which is greater than the true level of demand, as when students are com-
pelled to attend through compulsory attendance regulations. The parti-
cipation ratio at any one time also reflects the current balance between
the cost of the consumption of education to the family, and the cost of
the supply of education to the government. Thus, participation ratios
represent the outcome of government regulation or policies as well as
interaction between current levels of cost of demand and supply. Insofar
as the participation ratio reflects the effect of regulation of demand or
supply it does not measure true current levels of demand, and, insofar
as it reflects current costs of supply and demand it may be increased or
decreased by future changes.
Despite these problems of invalidity and instability, the enrolment
ratio is often used as the basis for the prediction of future aggregate de-
mand for a whole population, or some sub-group of a population, by
extrapolation of participation ratios into the future. Whether these pre-
dictions prove to be correct depends upon the extent to which the future
conditions of supply, price and benefits replicate the past and current
268 v.. P~ARSE
The Sample 1
The sample consists of 109 heads of families in which one of the family's
children currently attends an Islamic primary school (called a Madrassah),
thus including families which also may send one or more of their child-
ren to a Department of Education (Government) school, but excluding
families which send all of their children to Department of Education
schools. Families were selected by simple random procedure from a list
of all Islamic primary schools in selected rural sub-districts (ketjamaten).
The sub-districts themselves were chosen by random procedure from a
AN INDONESIAN CASE STUDY 269
list of all sub-districts in each of six provinces. Only six of the twenty-
six Indonesian provinces were included for reasons of cost. Though an
equal number of families from each province was planned to be includ-
ed, unequal numbers were actually obtained. The largest number of res-
pondents (43%) were drawn from Central Java, followed by South Su-
matra (17 %), East Java (15%), South Sulawesi (11%), West Sumatra
(6%) and DCT Jakarta (5%). The sample therefore provides a valid basis
for the analysis adopted, and generalization to rural areas in the six pro-
vinces, but lack of proportionality does not allow generalization to any
one province.
their children. Sundrum (1974: 92) has shown that educational level of
employee correlates .8 with level of income for urban workers in seven
Indonesian cities. The relationship may be less strong in rural areas.
12. Mother's education (EDUCATION(M)), a continuous variable with
a range from no education to tertiary, and thought to be indicative of
mother's attitude to education.
C. Variables which represent characteristics of the child
13. The sex of the eldest child_in Madrassah (SEX) is thought to be re-
lated prospectively to the family's aspirations for further education of
the child in that further education may be preferred for boys but not
girls.
D. Variables related to family perceptions of and attitudes toward
education
14. Attendance of the child at a Department of Education ("secular")
school as well as a Madrassah is thought to indicate family attitudes to-
ward schooling, in that attendance at a Department of Education school
would indicate less than complete satisfaction with occupational prepa-
ration, preparation for secondary education, or religious education, avail-
able in the religious primary school. (Two categories.)
15. Judgment of the usefulness of the education provided by the Ma-
drassah (UTILITY), in terms of its value as terminal education. This is
an ordinal variable thought to indicate parents' attitude toward terminal
primary education.
16. Perception of available opportunities for the child to continue from
primary to secondary education (POSSIBILITY) is an ordinal variable
(from high opportunity to low) to represent the parents' overall assess-
ment of the possibility to include both opportunity for schooling and
feasibility for parents to support further schooling.
Quantitative Demand
Qualitative Demand
1. Demand for "State" versus "Religious" School for the Family.
This is a ratio of the total number of years in religious schools of all
children in the family divided by the total number of years in State
schools of all children in the family. It is a measure of actual aggregate
demand for religious education and State education by the family.
2. Demand for Vocational versus Academic Schooling for the Family.6
This is a ratio of the total number of years spent by children of the fam-
ily in vocational schools, divided by the total number of years spent by
children in academic schools. It is a measure of actual aggregate demand
for vocational and general education. 7
Results
the error term. The coefficients, F values, and beta weights for this com-
bination is shown in Table 1(i). Table l(ii) shows the successive a m o u n t
of variance accounted for by the addition o f single variables up to and
including this combination of five.
(i) Equation b
Variable Coefficient Beta F to Remove
(Constant 1.917)
LOCATION .106 .314 11.74
EDUCATION (M) -.074 - .252 4.00
SEX - .229 .080 4.28
UTILITY .208 .087 5.32
POSSIBILITY - .490 - .583 46.94
(ii) Increases in Variance Accounted for
Step Number Variable Squared
Entered Into Multiple
Equation Correlation
1 POSSIBILITY .181
2 AREA .276
3 UTILITY .309
4 SEX .331
5 EDUCATION (M) .3 56
continue the child or not is made independently of the age (and present
level of schooling) of the child which suggests that the intention is little
influenced by the level of children's performance at school.
Inspection of the beta values in table l(ii) indicates the extent to
which a change of one standard deviation in the predictor variable is as-
sociated with a change of one standard deviation in the dependent var-
iable, that is, provides an indication of the sensitivity of the dependent
variable to change in the independent variable. Changes in perception of
opportunity, changes in population density and in mother's education
remain in the same order of importance on this criterion.
The prediction of families' intentions which can be made with these
variables requires a combination of variables which reflect families' per-
ceptions of opportunity, which appear to subsume some indicators of
family access to land and possessions, the location of families in terms
of areas of higher or lower population density, the level of education of
the mother, the sex of the child, and families' attitude toward the use-
fulness of the child's current schooling. That is, prediction requires a
combination of objective economic and residence characteristics, an
achieved characteristic of the family (mother's education), an objective
characteristic of the child (sex), family perceptions as to the opportunity
for further education and attitudes towards the value of current school-
ing for the child.
A.2. Prediction of Non-attendance. The dependent variable in this case
is a crude measure of families' demand-the number of school age child-
ren in the family who have not been enrolled in school. It was expected
to vary closely with indicators of the economic level of the family and
with the strength of the relation between education and income earning
which in turn can be expected to vary as between town (non farming)
and village (farming) residence. 11 In fact, none of the indicators of the
economic level of the family correlated significantly (at the .05 level of
confidence) with this measure. The relation between the land owned by
families approached significance (r = -.17), as did residence in town or
village (r = -.16), but level of father's occupation did not.
Significant correlations were found between non attendance and po-
pulation density (-.36), indicating higher degrees of non attendance to
be associated with lower density. This is probably indicative of larger
distances between home and school. The correlation between non attend-
ance and the number of children in a family (.20) could indicate that
families with more children to support cannot maintain them all at
school. The correlation between non attendance and attitudes toward
276 R. WAV.SE
(i) Equation b
Variable Coefficient Beta F to Remove
(Constant 2.03 8)
AREA - .231 - .370 19.559
AGE - .217 - .174 4.065
CHILDREN -.150 .253 7.554
Index Value %
0 0.0
1- 2 16.5
3 -4 42.1
5- 6 33.9
7- 8 6.6
9 0.9
100.0
The range is clearly wide, and the mid point (index 4, approximately
four years of primary schooling) corresponds to the level at which the
highest incidence of drop out is found in Indonesian schools. Because all
children in these families had not completed schooling the actual com-
pleted family demand could be expected to be higher than is shown.
Predictor variables which correlated significantly with average years
of schooling were area (.20), town-village residence (.23), land owner-
ship (.19), family possessions (.29) and age of household head (.30).
None of the variables associated with achieved characteristics of the fam-
ily-father's occupational level (.00), father's occupational type (.00),
father's educational level (.02) or mother's educational level (.08)-cor-
related significantly with this index, neither did the variables indicative
of differences in family attitudes toward the value of schooling-useful-
ness of the Madrassah (. 11), and enrolment of the child in both state
and Madrassah schools (.06).
The lack of relationship between variability in parental occupation
and education and variability in average demand between families is sur-
prising, but consistent with the result for demand as measured by non
attendance of children, and as measured by the intention to continue
an individual child at school.
The extent to which the average level of demand of families can be
predicted as summarised in Table 4.
Twenty-four percent of the variance is predicted by a combination of
four variables. No one variable was associated with any but a small pro-
portion of the total variance but each variable made a similar contribu-
tion to prediction.
278 R. PEARSE
(i) Equation b
Variable Coefficient Beta F to Remove
(Constant - .32)
COMMUNITY 1.556 .243 7.562
AGE .369 .233 6.617
POSSESSIONS .274 .306 12.215
HOUSE OWNERSHIP - .481 - .229 6.767
(ii) Increases in Variance Accounted for
Step Number Variable Squared
Entered Into Multiple
Equation Correlation
1 POSSESSIONS .084
2 COMMUNITY .158
3 HOUSE OWNERSHIP .190
4 AGE .239
This is perhaps because the intention, being for an individual child, al-
lowed measures of more specific attitudes than the measures of aggre-
gate attendance, or it may be that actual attendance is less predictable
than intention because it depends for realization on the level of income
and economic security of the family. The small contribution which eco-
nomic indices made to the prediction of actual demand, however, would
not be consistent with the latter interpretation.
Of the variables associated with quantitative demand indices, the var-
iables which represent location of the family are useful in predicting
demand. The level of population density, which reflects potential access
to schools, is significantly correlated with each, and predicts intention
and non attendance independently of othervariables. However, it is less
important than town and village differences for the prediction of average
attendance. Differences in town and village location predict only average
levels of demand independently of the population density of the area.
These two variables do not combine as independent predictors, suggest-
ing that within rural areas, town and village residence is not associated
with different levels of demand for education by the population.
Variables indicative of family structure were correlated with and pre-
dicted family demand. Age of the household head correlates with non
attendance and average length of attendance but the number of children
in the family correlates only with non attendance. Both combine as in-
dependent variables to predict non attendance, which indicates that age
of the family predicts independently of association with the number of
children in the family. This independence indicates that the association
between age of the household head and average length of attendance by
children is not a result of the tendency of older families to have more
children, but of other associations between demand and age, possibly
the tendency of older breadwinners to have higher incomes, as noted
above.
Of the indicators of families' economic conditions, the amount of
land owned correlates with average demand and approaches significance
with non attendance, and the number of possessions correlates with in-
tention and average years of attendance. Only the number of rural pos-
sessions acts as an independent predictor in a predictor set, in which
case it subsumes land ownership. Further refinement of these two var-
iables does seem to be warranted. Father's level of occupation, and kind
of education, do not correlate with, or independently predict any of the
measures of quantitative demand, contrary to expectation and despite
reasonable variability in these variables. Within this rural sample, drawn
280 R. PEARSE
(i) Equation b
Variable Coefficient Beta F to Remove
(Constant 7.241 )
AREA .815 .407 28.6
CHILDREN - 1.004 - .402 40.9
(ii) Increases in Variance Accounted for
Step Number Variable Squared
Entered Into Multiple
Equation Correlation
1 CHILDREN .23
2 AREA .39
(i) Equation b
Variable Coefficient Beta F to Remove
(Constant 4.023)
AREA - .311 - . 13 206.8
AGE - .327 - .27 65.0
EDUCATION (M) .115 .06 17.6
CHILDREN .105 .04 28.2
LAND .095 .07 5.1
POSSESSIONS .096 .04 15.6
HOUSE TYPE .269 .47 9.3
UTILITY - . 200 - .25 9.6
(ii) Increase in Variance Accounted for
Step Number Variable Squared
Entered Into Multiple
Equation Correlation
1 AREA .462
2 AGE •593
3 CHILDREN .664
4 POSSESSIONS .722
5 EDUCATION (M) .742
6 HOUSE TYPE .767
7 UTILITY .785
8 LAND .796
vary as between small town and countryside once given a relatively equal
provision of schooling in the two locations.
The relatively high power of variations in the supply of education,
and low power o f family variables (excepting wealth and the n u m b e r of
d e p e n d e n t children) suggests that prediction of d e m a n d might best be
accomplished by giving separate consideration to prediction based on
supply characteristics and then within different levels of supply, rather
than between different levels o f supply by the analysis o f family char-
acteristics. That is, prediction may be enhanced by holding conditions
of supply relatively constant, as, for example, would be accomplished
by the separate analysis o f data in particular areas.
The level o f prediction of various aspects o f d e m a n d attained in this
study based on a small sample of rural families is low, and the relation-
ships explored fall short of the goal to specify variables which might be
used to provide an alternative to the use of trends in participation ratios
as a basis for the projection of future demand. Further refinement of
variables is considered to be one necessary line of further research.
NOTES
8. The computer program used for the analysis was BMDO 2R.
9. For the validation of this criterion as a stepping rule see Bendel, B. and Afifi,
A.A. "Comparison of Stepping Rules in Forward Stepwlse Regression", Abstracts,
Biometrics 31, June, 1975.
10. The beta coefficients are here used in the sense of regression coefficients based
on standard scores (see Kerlinger and Pedhazur, 1973:64).
11. See Bruner, E.M. and Bruner, E.C. (1971) "AnthropolOgical Perspectives on
Primary Education in Indonesia", unpublished report, Jakarta: Office of Educational
Development.
12. The median for fathers was 4-5 years of schooling, and for mothers 2-3 years;
ranges for both are nil to completion of high school. The distribution for fathers is:
no schooling 40.4%, attended primary school but did not complete 38.6%, com-
pleted primary school 15.6%, attended secondary school 4.6%.
BIBLIOGRAPHY