Periodo Demanda Pronóstico Alfa 0.

45 44000
46 43000 𝐹_𝑇= 𝛼
47 47000 𝑑_(𝑇−1)+(1−
48 44000
49 46000
50 40000
51
=𝛼
−1)+(1−𝛼)𝐹_(𝑇−1)
Periodo Demanda Pronóstico Alfa 0.3

45 44000
46 43000 𝐹_𝑇= 𝛼
47 47000
𝑑_(𝑇−1)+(1−
48 44000
49 46000
50 40000
51 43000
52
𝑇= 𝛼
𝑇−1)+(1−𝛼)𝐹_(𝑇−1)
Periodo Demanda Pronóstico Alfa 0.2

1 3500
2 3600 𝐹_𝑇= 𝛼
3 3450
𝑑_(𝑇−1)+(1−
4 3700
5 3550
6 3640
7 3590
8
𝑇= 𝛼
𝑇−1)+(1−𝛼)𝐹_(𝑇−1)
TRIMESTRE Demanda
1 2500
2 2600 6000

3 2650
f(x) = 146.08823
4 2800 5000 R² = 0.99477966
5 3100
6 3150 4000
7 3500
8 3300
3000
9 3700
10 3800
2000
11 3900
12 4000
13 4220 1000

14 4380
15 4510 0
0

16 4590
17 4786 intetercepto
18 4932 pendiente
19 5078
20 5224
21 5370
22 5516
 Demanda

f(x) = 146.088235294118 x + 2302

R² = 0.994779663907485

5 10 15 20

2302
146.09
20 25
 AÑO VIVIENDAS CONSTRUIDAS VENTA M2 DE VIDRIO
2011 13000 180
2012 12000 150
2013 11000 120
2014 10000 100
2015 14000 200
2016 16000 280
2017 19000 350
2018 17000 300
2019 13500 200
2020 15000 250
2021 13500 197
2022 14800 235
2023 18350 338
2024 17000 299
2025 18500 342
TOTAL 222650 3541.12712170459
PROMEDIO 14843.3333333333 236.075141446972

Intercepcion -195.7
Pendiente 0.029
 VENTA M2 DE VIDRIO
400

350
f(x) = 0.0290863127482846 x − 195.662694113398
R² = 0.992463831870378
300

250

200

150

100

50

0
8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000
20000
 T Dt St Bt Ft
0 123.9 5.2
1 116 123.9 3.65 129.1
2 133 129.7 4.30 127.5
3 139 136.0 4.90 134.0
4 157 147.3 6.83 140.9
5 154 154.1 6.81 154.2
6 159 160.2 6.58 160.9
7 162 164.8 6.01 166.7
8 172 171.3 6.15 170.9
9 163 171.7 4.42 177.5
10 163 170.9 2.84 176.1
11 164 169.8 1.68 173.7
12 191 179.3 4.02 171.5
13 201 190.4 6.14 183.3
14 219 205.5 8.84 196.5
15 207 211.4 7.95 214.4
16 205 213.6 6.23 219.4
17 210 215.9 5.05 219.9
18 207 215.4 3.37 221.0
19 225 221.2 4.12 218.7
20 223 224.4 3.84 225.4
21 257 239.8 7.29 228.3
22 232 241.0 5.48 247.0
23 240 243.9 4.70 246.5
24 241 245.6 3.79 248.6
25 242 246.4 2.91 249.4
26 253 249.3
27 257 0.0
28 261 0.0
29 265 0.0
30 268 0.0
31 272 0.0
32 276 0.0
33 280 0.0
34 283 0.0
 alfa 0.4

𝑆_𝑇= 〖𝛼𝑑〗 _𝑇+(1−𝛼)

beta 0.3
m 5.22
a 123.906
(𝑆_(𝑇−1)+𝐵_(𝑇−1))
T 24 𝐵_𝑇=𝛽(𝑆_𝑇−𝑆_(𝑇−1) )
ST Intercepto
+(1−𝛽)𝐵_(𝑇−1))
𝐹_(𝑇+𝑘)=𝑆_𝑇+𝑘𝐵
BT Pendiente

_𝑇
alfa 0.4
beta 0.3

242
 )
)
1) )
 T Dt St Bt Ft
0 123.906 5.221 129.12667
1 116 123.876 3.6456696 127.52167
2 133 129.713 4.3030692 134.01607
3 139 136.00964 4.9011407 140.91078
4 157 147.34647 6.8318467 154.17832
5 154 154.10699 6.8104487 160.91744
6 159 160.15046 6.5803561 166.73082
7 162 164.83849 6.0126577 170.85115
8 172 171.31069 6.1505198 177.46121
9 163 171.67673 4.4151747 176.0919
10 163 170.85514 2.8441467 173.69929
11 164 169.81957 1.6802322 171.4998
12 191 179.29988 4.0202557 183.32014
13 201 190.39208 6.1418391 196.53392
14 219 205.52035 8.8377685 214.35812
15 207 211.41487 7.9547939 219.36967
16 205 213.6218 6.2304338 219.85223
17 210 215.91134 5.0481658 220.95951
18 207 215.3757 3.373025 218.74873
19 225 221.24924 4.1231776 225.37241
20 223 224.42345 3.8384878 228.26194
21 257 239.75716 7.2870554 247.04422
22 232 241.02653 5.4817493 246.50828
23 240 243.90497 4.7007557 248.60572
k 24 241 245.56343 3.7880689 249.3515
25 242 246.4109 2.9058885 249.31679
1 26 249.31679
2 27 252.22268
3 28 255.12857
4 29 258.03446
5 30 260.94034
6 31 263.84623
7 32 266.75212
8 33 269.65801
9 34 272.5639
10
 alfa 0.4

𝑆_𝑇= 〖𝛼𝑑〗 _𝑇+(1−𝛼)

beta 0.3
m 5.221
a 123.906
(𝑆_(𝑇−1)+𝐵_(𝑇−1))
𝐵_𝑇=𝛽(𝑆_𝑇−𝑆_(𝑇−1) )
+(1−𝛽)𝐵_(𝑇−1))
𝐹_(𝑇+𝑘)=𝑆_𝑇+𝑘𝐵
_𝑇
300

250
f(x) = 5.22086956521739 x + 123.905797101449

200

150

100

50

0
0 5 10 15 20 25
25
 Dt St Bt Ft
21.75 19.49
1 79 52.56 21.75 41.24
2 83 76.92 22.27 74.32
2017
3 95 97.94 22.02 99.19
4 100 113.97 20.82 119.96
5 102 124.95 18.86 134.79
6 130 139.67 18.03 143.81
2018
7 115 144.89 15.47 157.69
8 145 155.75 14.54 160.35
9 167 169.30 14.35 170.29
10 200 188.56 15.33 183.65
2019
11 230 211.72 16.89 203.88
12 285 245.53 20.28 228.61
13 290 273.07 21.73 265.81
14 305 297.86 22.34 294.79
2020
15 322 320.74 22.45 320.20
16 350 345.23 22.86 343.19
17 365 367.16 22.67 368.09
18 390
2021
19
20
|
Alfa 0.3
Beta 0.2 Chart Title
m 19.49 400
a 21.75
350

T 16 300 f(x) = 19.4852941176471 x + 21.75

ST Intercepto R² = 0.940329457698578
250
BT Pendiente
200

150

100

50

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

𝑆_𝑇= 〖𝛼𝑑〗 _𝑇+(1−𝛼)

(𝑆_(𝑇−1)+𝐵_(𝑇−1))
𝐵_𝑇=𝛽(𝑆_𝑇−𝑆_(𝑇−1) )
+(1−𝛽)𝐵_(𝑇−1))
𝐹_(𝑇+𝑘)=𝑆_𝑇+𝑘
𝐵_𝑇
 Title

71 x + 21.75
78

10 12 14 16 18

+(1−𝛼)
𝑇−1))
_(𝑇−1) )
1))