Distribusi Gumbel

No. Tahun Xi (Xi-Xr) (Xi-Xr)^2 (Xi-Xr)^3 (Xi-Xr)^4

1 1986 89,44 12,84 164,82 2115,97 27165,12
2 1987 50,74 -25,87 669,04 -17305,24 447613,84
3 1988 78,57 1,97 3,88 7,63 15,02
4 1989 78,57 1,97 3,89 7,66 15,10
5 1990 102,23 25,63 656,65 16826,93 431194,61
6 1991 80,31 3,71 13,73 50,88 188,54
7 1992 71,00 -5,61 31,44 -176,31 988,60
8 1993 73,29 -3,32 11,01 -36,54 121,26
9 1994 69,94 -6,67 44,47 -296,55 1977,57
10 1995 69,70 -6,91 47,71 -329,56 2276,35
11 1996 54,74 -21,87 478,20 -10457,14 228674,17
12 1997 50,03 -26,57 705,92 -18755,81 498326,98
13 1998 68,13 -8,47 71,82 -608,65 5158,14
14 1999 99,55 22,94 526,33 12075,11 277026,67
15 2000 67,55 -9,05 81,95 -741,90 6716,20
16 2001 80,01 3,41 11,61 39,58 134,87
17 2002 92,77 16,16 261,28 4223,39 68267,54
18 2003 68,30 -8,30 68,94 -572,39 4752,45
19 2004 93,52 16,92 286,13 4839,95 81869,29
20 2005 93,70 17,10 292,30 4997,26 85436,41
Jumlah 1532,07 0,00 4431,12 -4095,72 2167918,73
Rata-Rata 76,60
Standar Deviasi 15,27

Distribusi Log Pearson III

No. Tahun Xi Log Xi (Log Xi-Log Xr) (Log Xi-Log Xr)^2 (Log Xi-Log Xr)^3 (Log Xi-Log Xr)^4
1 1986 89,44 1,9515 0,0759 0,0058 0,000437893 3,32525E-05
2 1987 50,74 1,7053 -0,1703 0,0290 -0,004936556 0,000840554
3 1988 78,57 1,8953 0,0197 0,0004 7,60644E-06 1,49592E-07
4 1989 78,57 1,8953 0,0197 0,0004 7,62199E-06 1,5E-07
5 1990 102,23 2,0096 0,1340 0,0179 0,002404522 0,000322135
6 1991 80,31 1,9048 0,0292 0,0009 2,47999E-05 7,23215E-07
7 1992 71,00 1,8512 -0,0244 0,0006 -1,44685E-05 3,5256E-07
8 1993 73,29 1,8650 -0,0106 0,0001 -1,18646E-06 1,25604E-08
9 1994 69,94 1,8447 -0,0309 0,0010 -2,95271E-05 9,12629E-07
10 1995 69,70 1,8432 -0,0324 0,0010 -3,39912E-05 1,10109E-06
11 1996 54,74 1,7383 -0,1373 0,0189 -0,002590042 0,000355693
12 1997 50,03 1,6993 -0,1763 0,0311 -0,005482899 0,000966823
13 1998 68,13 1,8333 -0,0423 0,0018 -7,55335E-05 3,19291E-06
14 1999 99,55 1,9980 0,1224 0,0150 0,00183462 0,000224592
15 2000 67,55 1,8296 -0,0460 0,0021 -9,71593E-05 4,46662E-06
16 2001 80,01 1,9032 0,0275 0,0008 2,09088E-05 5,7602E-07
17 2002 92,77 1,9674 0,0918 0,0084 0,000773475 7,10005E-05
18 2003 68,30 1,8344 -0,0412 0,0017 -6,98211E-05 2,87507E-06
19 2004 93,52 1,9709 0,0953 0,0091 0,00086543 8,24725E-05
20 2005 93,70 1,9717 0,0961 0,0092 0,000888551 8,54233E-05
Jumlah 1532,07 37,51 0,00 0,155086879 -0,006065756 0,002996459
Rata-Rata 76,60 1,88
Standar Deviasi 15,27 0,09

Hasil Dispersi
Dispersi Statistik Dispresi Statistik Logaritma
Xr 76,60 1,88
Sx 15,27 0,09
Cs -0,07 -0,48
Cv 0,20 0,05
Ck 2,33 3,09

Distribusi Normal
Kala Ulang Xr Kt Sx Xt
2 0,00 76,60
5 0,84 140,95
10 1,28 174,66
20 76,60 1,64 15,27 202,23
25 1,71 207,60
50 2,05 233,64
100 2,33 255,09
 Distribusi Log Normal
Kala Ulang Xr Kt Sx Log Xt Xt
2 0,08 1,88 76,35
5 0,86 1,95 89,73
10 1,22 1,99 96,76
20 1,88 1,46 0,09 2,01 101,65
25 1,57 2,02 104,19
50 1,79 2,04 108,92
100 1,97 2,05 113,11

Menentukan Sebaran Metode Gumbel

Kala Ulang Yt Yn Sn K Sx Xt
2 0,3065 -0,2043 73,48
5 1,4999 0,9186 67,50
10 2,2504 1,6248 119,39
20 2,9702 0,5236 1,0628 2,3020 15,2714 169,16
25 3,1255 2,4482 179,90
50 3,9019 3,1787 233,58
100 4,6001 3,8356 281,86

Kala Ulang
2 5 10 20 25 50 100
CS
Presentase Peluang Terlampaui
50% 20% 10% 5% 4% 2% 1%
-0,300 0,050 0,853 1,245 1,510 1,643 1,890 2,104
-0,481 0,080 0,856 1,219 1,456 1,574 1,788 1,969
-0,500 0,083 0,856 1,216 1,450 1,567 1,777 1,955

OUTPUT LOG PEARSON III

Kala Ulang X Rata-Rata Log X Rata-Rata Gt Sx Log Xt Xt
2 0,080 1,883 76,352
5 0,856 1,953 89,725
10 1,219 1,986 96,764
20 76,604 1,876 1,456 0,090 2,007 101,654
25 1,574 2,018 104,190
50 1,788 2,037 108,923
100 1,969 2,054 113,112

DISTRIBUSI SEBARAN
JENIS DISTRIBUSI SYARAT HASIL PERHITUNGAN KESIMPULAN
Cs = 0 -0,067 TIDAK MEMENUHI
NORMAL
Ck = 3 2,331 TIDAK MEMENUHI
Cs = 3*Cv+Cv^2 = 3 0,147 TIDAK MEMENUHI
LOG NORMAL
Ck = 5,383 3,094 TIDAK MEMENUHI
Cs ≤ 1,1396 -0,067 MEMENUHI
GUMBEL
Ck ≤ 5,4002 2,742 MEMENUHI
LOG PERSON III Cs ≠ 0 -0,481 MEMENUHI
 Tahun Xi Log Xi Log Xi Max Log Xi Min
1986 89,442 1,952
1987 50,738 1,705
1988 78,572 1,895
1989 78,575 1,895
1990 102,229 2,010
1991 80,309 1,905
1992 70,996 1,851
1993 73,285 1,865
1994 69,935 1,845
1995 69,696 1,843
2,010 1,699
1996 54,736 1,738
1997 50,034 1,699
1998 68,129 1,833
1999 99,546 1,998
2000 67,551 1,830
2001 80,011 1,903
2002 92,768 1,967
2003 68,301 1,834
2004 93,519 1,971
2005 93,700 1,972

Log Xi Nilai Batas Tiap Batas EF OF EF - OF (EF-OF)² (EF-OF)²/EF

1,699
1,710 1,699 <x< 1,771 4 3 1 1 0,25
1,753
1,830
1,833 1,771 <x< 1,843 4 3 1 1 0,25
1,835
1,844
1,845
1,856
1,865
1,843 <x< 1,915 4 8 -4 16 4
1,895
1,903
1,903
1,906
1,920
1,953
1,915 <x< 1,986 4 4 0 0 0
1,971
1,972
1,998
1,986 <x< 2,058 4 2 2 4 1
2,010
JUMLAH 20 20 0 22 5,5
Tahun Xi Max M P(X) P(X<1) P'(X) P'(X<1) ΔP
1990 2,010 1 0,0476 0,952 0,053 0,947 0,005
1999 1,998 2 0,0952 0,905 0,105 0,895 0,010
2005 1,972 3 0,1429 0,857 0,158 0,842 0,015
2004 1,971 4 0,1905 0,810 0,211 0,789 0,020
2002 1,967 5 0,2381 0,762 0,263 0,737 0,025
1986 1,952 6 0,2857 0,714 0,316 0,684 0,030
1991 1,905 7 0,3333 0,667 0,368 0,632 0,035
2001 1,903 8 0,3810 0,619 0,421 0,579 0,040
1989 1,895 9 0,4286 0,571 0,474 0,526 0,045
1988 1,895 10 0,4762 0,524 0,526 0,474 0,050
1993 1,865 11 0,5238 0,476 0,579 0,421 0,055
1992 1,851 12 0,5714 0,429 0,632 0,368 0,060
1994 1,845 13 0,6190 0,381 0,684 0,316 0,065
1995 1,843 14 0,6667 0,333 0,737 0,263 0,070
2003 1,834 15 0,7143 0,286 0,789 0,211 0,075
1998 1,833 16 0,7619 0,238 0,842 0,158 0,080
2000 1,830 17 0,8095 0,190 0,895 0,105 0,085
1996 1,738 18 0,8571 0,143 0,947 0,053 0,090
1987 1,705 19 0,9048 0,095 1,000 0,000 0,095
1997 1,699 20 0,9524 0,048 1,053 -0,053 0,100
Δmax 0,100
Δkritis 0,294

Intensitas Curah Hujan

Kala Ulang R24 90%R
Jam ke-1 (20%) Jam ke-2 (25%) Jam ke-3 (30%) Jam ke-4 (10%) Jam ke-5 (5%)
2 76,35 68,717 15,270 19,088 22,906 7,635 3,818
5 89,73 80,753 17,945 22,431 26,918 8,973 4,486
10 96,76 87,087 19,353 24,191 29,029 9,676 4,838
20 101,65 91,488 20,331 25,413 30,496 10,165 5,083
25 104,19 93,771 20,838 26,048 31,257 10,419 5,210
50 108,92 98,030 21,785 27,231 32,677 10,892 5,446
100 113,11 101,801 22,622 28,278 33,934 11,311 5,656

Intensitas Curah Hujan Pada Kala Ulang

t (Menit) t (Jam)
2 5 10 20 25 50 100
5 0,083 138,740 163,041 175,831 184,717 189,326 197,925 205,538
10 0,167 87,401 102,710 110,767 116,364 119,268 124,685 129,481
20 0,333 55,059 64,703 69,779 73,305 75,134 78,547 81,568
30 0,500 42,018 49,378 53,251 55,942 57,338 59,942 62,248
40 0,667 34,685 40,760 43,958 46,179 47,332 49,481 51,384
50 0,833 29,891 35,126 37,882 39,796 40,789 42,642 44,282
60 1 26,470 31,106 33,546 35,241 36,121 37,761 39,214
120 2 16,675 19,596 21,133 22,201 22,755 23,788 24,703
180 3 12,725 14,954 16,127 16,942 17,365 18,154 18,852
240 4 10,504 12,344 13,313 13,986 14,335 14,986 15,562
360 6 8,016 9,421 10,160 10,673 10,939 11,436 11,876
Jumlah 462,185 543,138 585,746 615,346 630,702 659,348 684,707
 0 √t

0,083 0,289
0,167 0,408
0,333 0,577
0,500 0,707
0,667 0,816
0,833 0,913
1,000 1,000
2,000 1,414
3,000 1,732
4,000 2,000
6,000 2,449
Jumlah 12,307

0 √t

0,083 0,289
0,167 0,408
0,333 0,577
0,500 0,707
0,667 0,816
0,833 0,913
1,000 1,000
2,000 1,414
3,000 1,732
4,000 2,000
6,000 2,449
J umlah 12,307
 I×√t
t (Menit) t (Jam)
2 5 10 20 25 50 100
5 0,083 40,051 47,066 50,758 53,323 54,654 57,136 59,334
10 0,167 35,681 41,931 45,220 47,506 48,691 50,902 52,860
20 0,333 31,788 37,356 40,287 42,323 43,379 45,349 47,093
30 0,500 29,711 34,915 37,654 39,557 40,544 42,386 44,016
40 0,667 28,320 33,281 35,891 37,705 38,646 40,401 41,955
50 0,833 27,286 32,066 34,581 36,329 37,235 38,926 40,424
60 1,000 26,470 31,106 33,546 35,241 36,121 37,761 39,214
120 2,000 23,582 27,712 29,886 31,396 32,180 33,642 34,935
180 3,000 22,041 25,901 27,933 29,345 30,077 31,443 32,653
240 4,000 21,009 24,689 26,626 27,971 28,669 29,971 31,124
360 6,000 19,636 23,076 24,886 26,143 26,796 28,013 29,090
Jumlah 305,576 359,099 387,269 406,839 416,992 435,931 452,698

I²x√t
t (Menit) t (Jam)
2 5 10 20 25 50 100
5 0,083 5556,664 7673,690 8924,883 9849,681 10347,417 11308,686 12195,314
10 0,167 3118,572 4306,713 5008,921 5527,946 5807,291 6346,785 6844,389
20 0,333 1750,239 2417,061 2811,162 3102,455 3259,232 3562,013 3841,283
30 0,500 1248,403 1724,030 2005,133 2212,905 2324,730 2540,696 2739,893
40 0,667 982,289 1356,529 1577,711 1741,194 1829,182 1999,112 2155,847
50 0,833 815,607 1126,344 1309,994 1445,735 1518,793 1659,888 1790,027
60 1,000 700,642 967,579 1125,343 1241,951 1304,711 1425,918 1537,713
120 2,000 393,222 543,035 631,577 697,021 732,244 800,269 863,012
180 3,000 280,476 387,334 450,489 497,168 522,292 570,812 615,565
240 4,000 220,689 304,768 354,461 391,190 410,958 449,136 484,349
360 6,000 157,412 217,384 252,828 279,026 293,126 320,358 345,474
Jumlah 15224,214 21024,467 24452,503 26986,273 28349,977 30983,673 33412,868

Kala Ulang
Keterangan
2 5 10 20 25 50 100
Jumlah I 462,185 543,138 585,746 615,346 630,702 659,348 684,707
Jumlah I² 35096,507 48467,879 56370,559 62211,682 65355,440 71426,920 77026,965
Jumlah I×√t 305,576 359,099 387,269 406,839 416,992 435,931 452,698
Jumlah I²×√t 15224,214 21024,467 24452,503 26986,273 28349,977 30983,673 33412,868
a 21,388 25,134 27,106 28,475 29,186 30,511 31,685
Nilai Tetapan
b -0,152 -0,152 -0,152 -0,152 -0,152 -0,152 -0,152

Intensitas Curah Hujan (mm/jam)

t (Menit) t (Jam)
2 5 10 20 25 50 100
5 0,083 73,937 86,914 93,744 98,489 100,951 105,543 109,608
10 0,167 52,237 61,413 66,243 69,598 71,338 74,585 77,460
20 0,333 36,892 43,381 46,796 49,168 50,399 52,695 54,728
30 0,500 30,095 35,392 38,181 40,118 41,123 42,998 44,657
40 0,667 26,042 30,630 33,045 34,723 35,593 37,217 38,654
50 0,833 23,277 27,381 29,540 31,041 31,819 33,271 34,557
60 1,000 21,236 24,982 26,953 28,323 29,034 30,359 31,533
120 2,000 14,971 17,620 19,014 19,983 20,485 21,423 22,253
180 3,000 12,196 14,359 15,497 16,288 16,698 17,464 18,141
240 4,000 10,542 12,415 13,401 14,085 14,441 15,104 15,690
360 6,000 8,579 10,109 10,914 11,473 11,763 12,304 12,783
Jumlah 310,004 364,595 393,329 413,289 423,645 442,962 460,063

Metode Ishiguro
120.000
kala ulang 2
100.000 kala ulang 5
80.000 kala ulang 10
kala ulang 20
60.000 kala ulang 25
kala ulang 50
40.000
kala ulang 100
20.000

0.000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
 Log I
t (Menit) t (Jam)
2 5 10 20 25 50 100
5 0,083 2,142 2,212 2,245 2,267 2,277 2,297 2,313
10 0,167 1,942 2,012 2,044 2,066 2,077 2,096 2,112
20 0,333 1,741 1,811 1,844 1,865 1,876 1,895 1,912
30 0,500 1,623 1,694 1,726 1,748 1,758 1,778 1,794
40 0,667 1,540 1,610 1,643 1,664 1,675 1,694 1,711
50 0,833 1,476 1,546 1,578 1,600 1,611 1,630 1,646
60 1,000 1,423 1,493 1,526 1,547 1,558 1,577 1,593
120 2,000 1,222 1,292 1,325 1,346 1,357 1,376 1,393
180 3,000 1,105 1,175 1,208 1,229 1,240 1,259 1,275
240 4,000 1,021 1,091 1,124 1,146 1,156 1,176 1,192
360 6,000 0,904 0,974 1,007 1,028 1,039 1,058 1,075
Jumlah 16,138 16,910 17,270 17,506 17,624 17,836 18,016

Log I x Log T
t (Menit) t (Jam)
2 5 10 20 25 50 100
5 0,083 -2,312 -2,387 -2,423 -2,446 -2,458 -2,478 -2,496
10 0,167 -1,511 -1,565 -1,591 -1,608 -1,616 -1,631 -1,644
20 0,333 -0,831 -0,864 -0,880 -0,890 -0,895 -0,904 -0,912
30 0,500 -0,489 -0,510 -0,520 -0,526 -0,529 -0,535 -0,540
40 0,667 -0,271 -0,284 -0,289 -0,293 -0,295 -0,298 -0,301
50 0,833 -0,117 -0,122 -0,125 -0,127 -0,128 -0,129 -0,130
60 1,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
120 2,000 0,368 0,389 0,399 0,405 0,409 0,414 0,419
180 3,000 0,527 0,561 0,576 0,586 0,591 0,601 0,608
240 4,000 0,615 0,657 0,677 0,690 0,696 0,708 0,718
360 6,000 0,703 0,758 0,784 0,800 0,808 0,824 0,836
Jumlah -3,317 -3,368 -3,392 -3,408 -3,416 -3,430 -3,442

Kala Ulang
Keterangan
2 5 10 20 25 50 100
Jumlah Log I 16,138 16,910 17,270 17,506 17,624 17,836 18,016
Jumlah Log T -0,732
Jumlah Log T^2 3,412
Jumlah Log I x Log T -3,317 -3,368 -3,392 -3,408 -3,416 -3,430 -3,442
Log a 1,423 1,493 1,526 1,547 1,558 1,577 1,593
Nilai Tetapan a 26,470 31,106 33,546 35,241 36,121 37,761 39,214
b 0,667 0,667 0,667 0,667 0,667 0,667 0,667

Intensitas Curah Hujan Pada Kala Ulang

t (Menit) t (Jam)
2 5 10 20 25 50 100
5 0,083 138,740 163,041 175,831 184,717 189,326 197,925 205,538
10 0,167 87,401 102,710 110,767 116,364 119,268 124,685 129,481
20 0,333 55,059 64,703 69,779 73,305 75,134 78,547 81,568
30 0,500 42,018 49,378 53,251 55,942 57,338 59,942 62,248
40 0,667 34,685 40,760 43,958 46,179 47,332 49,481 51,384
50 0,833 29,891 35,126 37,882 39,796 40,789 42,642 44,282
60 1 26,470 31,106 33,546 35,241 36,121 37,761 39,214
120 2 16,675 19,596 21,133 22,201 22,755 23,788 24,703
180 3 12,725 14,954 16,127 16,942 17,365 18,154 18,852
240 4 10,504 12,344 13,313 13,986 14,335 14,986 15,562
360 6 8,016 9,421 10,160 10,673 10,939 11,436 11,876
Jumlah 462,185 543,138 585,746 615,346 630,702 659,348 684,707
 Mononobe
Kala Ulang Intensitas Konstanta Ekivalen C 90% x I (mm/jam) A (km2) Q (m3/s)
2 26,470 23,823 3,202
5 31,106 27,995 3,763
10 33,546 30,192 4,058
20 35,241 0,278 0,5 31,717 0,9669 4,263
25 36,121 32,509 4,369
50 37,761 33,985 4,568
100 39,214 35,292 4,743

Ishiguro
Kala Ulang Intensitas Konstanta Ekivalen C 90% x I (mm/jam) A (km2) Q (m3/s)
2 21,236 19,112 2,569
5 24,982 22,484 3,022
10 26,953 24,258 3,260
20 28,323 0,278 0,5 25,491 0,9669 3,426
25 29,034 26,130 3,512
50 30,359 27,323 3,672
100 31,533 28,380 3,814

Sherman
Kala Ulang Intensitas Konstanta Ekivalen C 90% x I (mm/jam) A (km2) Q (m3/s)
2 26,470 23,823 3,202
5 31,106 27,995 3,763
10 33,546 30,192 4,058
20 35,241 0,278 0,5 31,717 0,9669 4,263
25 36,121 32,509 4,369
50 37,761 33,985 4,568
100 39,214 35,292 4,743