Normal Distribution

Year Xi (Xi-Xrt) (Xi-Xrt)2 (Xi-Xrt)3 (Xi-Xrt)4 Log Xi

2000 62.49 -14.40 207 -2989 43047 1.80
2001 64.39 -12.51 157 -1958 24498 1.81
2002 58.03 -18.87 356 -6718 126755 1.76
2003 87.74 10.85 118 1276 13844 1.94
2004 75.24 -1.66 3 -5 8 1.88
2005 120.98 44.08 1943 85644 3775131 2.08
2006 78.67 1.78 3 6 10 1.90
2007 67.11 -9.79 96 -938 9184 1.83
2008 73.89 -3.00 9 -27 81 1.87
2009 80.81 3.91 15 60 234 1.91
2010 128.47 51.58 2660 137212 7077105 2.11
2011 87.05 10.15 103 1045 10607 1.94
2012 81.32 4.42 20 87 383 1.91
2013 62.19 -14.71 216 -3181 46791 1.79
2014 50.84 -26.05 679 -17683 460697 1.71
2015 61.15 -15.75 248 -3908 61549 1.79
2016 75.83 -1.07 1 -1 1 1.88
2017 68.34 -8.56 73 -627 5370 1.83
2018 54.04 -22.86 522 -11941 272947 1.73
2019 99.67 22.77 518 11804 268766 2.00
2020 71.78 -5.12 26 -134 686 1.86
2021 89.15 12.25 150 1840 22545 1.95
2022 69.45 -7.44 55 -412 3069 1.84
Total 1768.63 0.00 8180 188451 12223310 43
Xrt 76.90 1.89

METODE Gumbel Tipe 1

No Period X S Yt Yn Sn Xt
1 2 76.90 19.28 0.37 0.54 1.08 73.83
2 5 76.90 19.28 1.50 0.54 1.08 94.07
3 10 76.90 19.28 2.25 0.54 1.08 107.47
4 25 76.90 19.28 3.20 0.54 1.08 124.40
5 50 76.90 19.28 3.90 0.54 1.08 136.96
6 100 76.90 19.28 4.60 0.54 1.08 149.42
7 200 76.90 19.28 5.30 0.54 1.08 161.85
8 1000 76.90 19.28 6.92 0.54 1.08 190.82

METODE Log Pearson Tipe III

No Period Prob. S Log X Log Xrt Cs k Y=Log X Xt

 1 2 50 0.10 1.89 0.29 -0.05 1.88 76.01
2 5 20 0.10 1.89 0.29 0.82 1.97 93.17
3 10 10 0.10 1.89 0.29 1.31 2.02 104.31
4 25 4 0.10 1.89 0.29 1.85 2.07 118.29
5 50 2 0.10 1.89 0.29 2.21 2.11 128.70
6 100 1 0.10 1.89 0.29 2.54 2.14 139.08
7 200 0.5 0.10 1.89 0.29 2.86 2.17 149.56
8 1000 0.1 0.10 1.89 0.29 3.53 2.24 174.78

METODE Log Normal 3 Parameter

No Period Prob. Xrt S Cs k Y

1 2 50 76.90 19.28 0.29 -0.03 76.26
2 5 20 76.90 19.28 0.29 0.83 92.89
3 10 10 76.90 19.28 0.29 1.30 101.97
4 25 4 76.90 19.28 0.29 1.60 107.73
5 50 2 76.90 19.28 0.29 2.16 118.55
6 100 1 76.90 19.28 0.29 2.47 124.61

Summary
No Period Gumbel Log Pearson Log Normal
1 2 73.83 76.01 76.26
2 5 94.07 93.17 92.89
3 10 107.47 104.31 101.97
4 25 124.40 118.29 107.73
5 50 136.96 128.70 118.55
6 100 149.42 139.08 124.61
7 200 161.85 149.56
8 1000 190.82 174.78

Requirement of distribution selection

No Method Terms Result Conclusion
Cs ≤ 1.1396 1.3086 Not match
1 METODE Gumbel Tipe 1
Ck ≤ 5.4002 3.8444 Not match
2 METODE Log Pearson Tipe III Cs ≠ 0 1.3086 Match
Cs ≈3Cv + Cv2 = 3 0.1637954 Not match
3 METODE Log Normal
Ck = 5.383 2.6067 Not match
 Log Pearson III
(Log Xi-Log Xrt) (Log Xi-Log Xrt)2 (Log Xi-Log Xrt)3 (Log Xi-Log Xrt)4
-0.09 0.0081 -0.0007 0.0001
-0.08 0.0059 -0.0005 0.0000
-0.12 0.0149 -0.0018 0.0002
0.06 0.0033 0.0002 0.0000
-0.01 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000
0.20 0.0387 0.0076 0.0015
0.01 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000
-0.06 0.0035 -0.0002 0.0000
-0.02 0.0003 0.0000 0.0000
0.02 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000
0.22 0.0497 0.0111 0.0025
0.05 0.0029 0.0002 0.0000
0.02 0.0006 0.0000 0.0000
-0.09 0.0085 -0.0008 0.0001
-0.18 0.0323 -0.0058 0.0010
-0.10 0.0099 -0.0010 0.0001
-0.01 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
-0.05 0.0026 -0.0001 0.0000
-0.15 0.0235 -0.0036 0.0006
0.11 0.0127 0.0014 0.0002
-0.03 0.0009 0.0000 0.0000
0.06 0.0041 0.0003 0.0000
-0.04 0.0020 -0.0001 0.0000
-0.27 0.2251 0.0061 0.0063

Standard Deviation 19.2823

Coefficient Skewness 1.3086
Coefficient Curtosis 3.8444
Coefficient Variant 0.2508

Standard Deviation 0.1012

Coefficient Skewness 0.2942
Coefficient Curtosis 2.6067
Coefficient Variant 0.0536