DISTRIBUSI NORMAL

No. Tahun Xi Xr (Xi-Xr) (Xi-Xr)^2 (Xi-Xr)^3 (Xi-Xr)^4

1 1986 90.50795 79.91 10.59 112.23 1188.90 12594.88
2 1987 72.05254 79.91 -7.86 61.81 -485.90 3819.99
3 1988 104.83451 79.91 24.92 621.02 15476.01 385666.55
4 1989 89.97758 79.91 10.06 101.27 1019.13 10255.84
5 1990 102.37432 79.91 22.46 504.46 11330.13 254475.89
6 1991 95.10870 79.91 15.19 230.87 3507.98 53301.84
7 1992 86.34813 79.91 6.43 41.40 266.33 1713.55
8 1993 78.29549 79.91 -1.62 2.62 -4.24 6.87
9 1994 97.90642 79.91 17.99 323.72 5824.41 104793.96
10 1995 66.32792 79.91 -13.59 184.59 -2507.87 34072.65
11 1996 66.32792 79.91 -13.59 184.59 -2507.87 34072.65
12 1997 47.87630 79.91 -32.04 1026.43 -32884.64 1053555.50
13 1998 62.67473 79.91 -17.24 297.20 -5123.59 88328.06
14 1999 93.46047 79.91 13.55 183.50 2485.75 33672.53
15 2000 75.14648 79.91 -4.77 22.73 -108.38 516.71
16 2001 81.26969 79.91 1.36 1.84 2.49 3.38
17 2002 62.47219 79.91 -17.44 304.22 -5306.30 92552.59
18 2003 72.30726 79.91 -7.61 57.87 -440.18 3348.46
19 2004 72.30726 79.91 -7.61 57.87 -440.18 3348.46
20 2005 80.70867 79.91 0.79 0.63 0.50 0.40
Jumlah 1598.28 1598.28 0.00 4320.85 -8707.51 2170100.78
Rata-Rata 79.91 79.91 0.00 216.04 -435.38 108505.04
Sx 15.08
Cs -0.15
Ck 2.89
Cv 0.19

Penentuan Dispersi Normal

No. Data Nilai
1 Xr 79.914
2 Sx 15.080
3 Cs -0.148
4 Cv 0.189
5 Ck 2.89

Distribusi Normal
Kala Ulang Xr Kt Sx Xt
2 79.91 0.00 15.080 79.9142
5 79.91 0.84 15.080 92.5816
10 79.91 1.28 15.080 99.2169
20 79.91 1.64 15.080 104.6458
25 79.91 1.71 15.080 105.7014
50 79.91 2.05 15.080 110.8287
100 79.91 2.33 15.080 115.0511
 SEBARAN DISTRIBUSI LOG NORMAL
No. Tahun Xi Log Xi Xr (Log Xi-Xr) (Log Xi-Xr)^2 (Log Xi-Xr)^3 (Log XI-Xr)^4
1 1986 90.50795 1.9567 1.89 0.0619 0.00383 0.00024 0.0000
2 1987 72.05254 1.8576 1.89 -0.0372 0.00138 -0.00005 0.0000
3 1988 104.83451 2.0205 1.89 0.1257 0.01580 0.00199 0.0002
4 1989 89.97758 1.9541 1.89 0.0593 0.00352 0.00021 0.0000
5 1990 102.37432 2.0102 1.89 0.1154 0.01331 0.00154 0.0002
6 1991 95.10870 1.9782 1.89 0.0834 0.00696 0.00058 0.0000
7 1992 86.34813 1.9363 1.89 0.0414 0.00172 0.00007 0.0000
8 1993 78.29549 1.8937 1.89 -0.0011 0.00000 0.00000 0.0000
9 1994 97.90642 1.9908 1.89 0.0960 0.00922 0.00088 0.0001
10 1995 66.32792 1.8217 1.89 -0.0731 0.00535 -0.00039 0.0000
11 1996 66.32792 1.8217 1.89 -0.0731 0.00535 -0.00039 0.0000
12 1997 47.87630 1.6801 1.89 -0.2147 0.04609 -0.00990 0.0021
13 1998 62.67473 1.7971 1.89 -0.0977 0.00955 -0.00093 0.0001
14 1999 93.46047 1.9706 1.89 0.0758 0.00575 0.00044 0.0000
15 2000 75.14648 1.8759 1.89 -0.0189 0.00036 -0.00001 0.0000
16 2001 81.26969 1.9099 1.89 0.0151 0.00023 0.00000 0.0000
17 2002 62.47219 1.7957 1.89 -0.0991 0.00983 -0.00097 0.0001
18 2003 72.30726 1.8592 1.89 -0.0356 0.00127 -0.00005 0.0000
19 2004 72.30726 1.8592 1.89 -0.0356 0.00127 -0.00005 0.0000
20 2005 80.70867 1.9069 1.89 0.0121 0.00015 0.00000 0.0000
Jumlah 1598.28 37.90 37.90 0.00 0.14 -0.01 0.0030
Rata-Rata 79.91 1.89 1.89 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.0001
Sx 0.09
Cs -0.62
Ck 3.75
Cv 0.0454

Penentuan Dispersi Logaritma Normal

No. Data Nilai
1 Log Xr 1.895
2 Sx Log X 0.087
3 Cs -0.622
4 Cv 0.045
5 Ck 3.75

Distribusi Log Normal

Kala Ulang Xr Kt Sx log Xt Xt
2 0.00 1.8948 78.49
5 0.84 1.9672 92.72
10 1.28 2.0050 101.17
20 1.8948 1.64 0.0861 2.0360 108.65
25 1.71 2.0421 110.17
50 2.05 2.0714 117.86
100 2.33 2.0955 124.59
 SEBARAN GUMBEL
No. Tahun Xi Xr (Xi-Xr) (Xi-Xr)^2 (Xi-Xr)^3 (Xi-Xr)^4
1 1986 90.50795 79.91 10.59 112.23 1188.90 12594.88
2 1987 72.05254 79.91 -7.86 61.81 -485.90 3819.99
3 1988 104.83451 79.91 24.92 621.02 15476.01 385666.55
4 1989 89.97758 79.91 10.06 101.27 1019.13 10255.84
5 1990 102.37432 79.91 22.46 504.46 11330.13 254475.89
6 1991 95.10870 79.91 15.19 230.87 3507.98 53301.84
7 1992 86.34813 79.91 6.43 41.40 266.33 1713.55
8 1993 78.29549 79.91 -1.62 2.62 -4.24 6.87
9 1994 97.90642 79.91 17.99 323.72 5824.41 104793.96
10 1995 66.32792 79.91 -13.59 184.59 -2507.87 34072.65
11 1996 66.32792 79.91 -13.59 184.59 -2507.87 34072.65
12 1997 47.87630 79.91 -32.04 1026.43 -32884.64 1053555.50
13 1998 62.67473 79.91 -17.24 297.20 -5123.59 88328.06
14 1999 93.46047 79.91 13.55 183.50 2485.75 33672.53
15 2000 75.14648 79.91 -4.77 22.73 -108.38 516.71
16 2001 81.26969 79.91 1.36 1.84 2.49 3.38
17 2002 62.47219 79.91 -17.44 304.22 -5306.30 92552.59
18 2003 72.30726 79.91 -7.61 57.87 -440.18 3348.46
19 2004 72.30726 79.91 -7.61 57.87 -440.18 3348.46
20 2005 80.70867 79.91 0.79 0.63 0.50 0.40
Jumlah 1598.28 1598.28 0.00 4320.85 -8707.51 2170100.78
Rata-Rata 79.91 79.91 0.00 216.04 -435.38 108505.04
Sx 15.08
Cs -0.15
Ck 2.89
Cv 0.19
Yn 0.5236
Sn 1.0628

Penentuan Dispersi Sebaran Gumbel

No. Data Nilai
1 Xr 79.914
2 Yn 0.524
3 Sn 1.063
4 Sx 15.080
5 Cs -0.15
6 Cv 0.189
7 Ck 2.887

Menentukan Sebaran Metode Gumbel

Kala Ulang Yt Yn Sn K Sx Xt
2 0.3665 -0.1478 77.69
5 1.4999 0.9186 93.77
10 2.2504 1.6247 104.42
20 2.9702 0.5236 1.0628 2.3020 15.0802 114.63
25 3.1985 2.5169 117.87
50 3.9019 3.1787 127.85
100 4.6001 3.8357 137.76
 SEBARAN DISTRIBUSI LOG PERSON III
No. Tahun Xi Log Xi Log Xr (Log Xi-Log Xr) (Log Xi-Log Xr)^2 (Log Xi- Log Xr)^3 (Log XI-Log Xr)^4
1 1986 90.50795 1.95669 1.89 0.061875 0.003829 0.000237 0.000015
2 1987 72.05254 1.85765 1.89 -0.037162 0.001381 -0.000051 0.000002
3 1988 104.83451 2.02050 1.89 0.125693 0.015799 0.001986 0.000250
4 1989 89.97758 1.95413 1.89 0.059323 0.003519 0.000209 0.000012
5 1990 102.37432 2.01019 1.89 0.115380 0.013312 0.001536 0.000177
6 1991 95.10870 1.97822 1.89 0.083409 0.006957 0.000580 0.000048
7 1992 86.34813 1.93625 1.89 0.041441 0.001717 0.000071 0.000003
8 1993 78.29549 1.89374 1.89 -0.001075 0.000001 0.000000 0.000000
9 1994 97.90642 1.99081 1.89 0.096000 0.009216 0.000885 0.000085
10 1995 66.32792 1.82170 1.89 -0.073115 0.005346 -0.000391 0.000029
11 1996 66.32792 1.82170 1.89 -0.073115 0.005346 -0.000391 0.000029
12 1997 47.87630 1.68012 1.89 -0.214691 0.046092 -0.009896 0.002124
13 1998 62.67473 1.79709 1.89 -0.097719 0.009549 -0.000933 0.000091
14 1999 93.46047 1.97063 1.89 0.075817 0.005748 0.000436 0.000033
15 2000 75.14648 1.87591 1.89 -0.018903 0.000357 -0.000007 0.000000
16 2001 81.26969 1.90993 1.89 0.015117 0.000229 0.000003 0.000000
17 2002 62.47219 1.79569 1.89 -0.099125 0.009826 -0.000974 0.000097
18 2003 72.30726 1.85918 1.89 -0.035630 0.001269 -0.000045 0.000002
19 2004 72.30726 1.85918 1.89 -0.035630 0.001269 -0.000045 0.000002
20 2005 80.70867 1.90692 1.89 0.012109 0.000147 0.000002 0.000000
Jumlah 1598.28 37.90 37.90 0.00 0.14 -0.01 0.002998
Rata-Rata 79.91 1.894811 1.89 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.0001
Sx 0.09
Cs -0.622
Ck 3.75
Cv 0.0011
Log Xr 1.89

Kala Ulang
2 5 10 20 25 50 100
Koefisien G
Presentase Peluang Terlampaui
50% 20% 10% 5% 4% 2% 1%
-0.6 0.099 0.857 1.2 1.528 1.72 1.88 2.016
-0.7 -0.116 0.790 1.333 1.976 2.407 2.824 3.223
-0.622 0.053 0.843 1.229 1.625 1.868 2.084 2.276

Menentukan Sebaran Log Pearson III

Kala Ulang Koef. G Log Xr S Log X Log Xt Xt
2 0.053 1.8948 0.0861 1.8993 79.3132
5 0.843 1.8948 0.0861 1.9674 92.7621
10 1.229 1.8948 0.0861 2.0006 100.1434
20 1.625 1.8948 0.0861 2.0347 108.3221
25 1.868 1.8948 0.0861 2.0557 113.6814
50 2.084 1.8948 0.0861 2.0742 118.6423
100 2.276 1.8948 0.0861 2.0908 123.2636

SYARAT
Jenis Distribusi Syarat Hasil Perhitungan Kesimpulan
Cs ≈ 0 -0.148 Tidak Memenuhi
Normal
Ck ≈ 3 2.8869 Tidak Memenuhi
Cs = 3 -0.6216 Tidak Memenuhi
Log Normal
3Cv + Cv^2 = 3 0.1384 Tidak Memenuhi
 Ck = 5,383 3.75 Tidak Memenuhi
Gumbel Cs ≤ 1,1396 -0.148 Memenuhi
  Ck ≤ 5,4002 2.887 Memenuhi
Log Pearson III Cs ≠ 0 -0.6216 Memenuhi