Gasolinas/ Kerosene/ No

Electricidad Gas Licuado Alcohol Jet Fuel Diesel Oil Fuel Oil Energetico
2007 0.09 - 16.26 0.53 66.76 4.33 1.36
2008 11.00 - 16.20 0.30 76.90 26.40 0.60
2009 11.30 - 13.20 0.10 78.00 - 1.70
2010 11.34 - 10.27 0.07 92.44 - 0.40
2011 10.47 - 3.93 0.38 89.93 - 0.30
2012 10.47 - 5.54 0.38 98.75 - 0.40
2013 10.47 - 2.05 0.22 111.67 - 0.50
2014 10.47 - 2.14 0.10 139.11 - 0.30
2015 11.34 - 2.68 0.00 155.43 - -
2016 11.34 - 3.84 0.10 120.98 - -
2017 11.34 - 7.68 0.00 93.30 - -
2018 37.86 - 5.99 0.22 87.73 - -
2019 804.05 - 9.74 1.21 110.90 - -
2020 1148.45 - 6.11 0.71 66.87 - -
2021 1389.45 - 10.25 0.00 85.71 - -
92.429% - 0.500% 0.058% 7.013% - -
2022 1667.05 - 9.02 1.04 126.48 - -
2023 1838.92 - 9.95 1.15 139.53 - -
2024 1996.04 - 10.80 1.25 151.45 - -
2025 2161.62 - 11.70 1.35 164.01 - -
2026 2338.41 - 12.66 1.46 177.42 - -
2027 2527.05 - 13.68 1.58 191.74 - -
2028 2728.19 - 14.77 1.71 207.00 - -
2029 2942.54 - 15.93 1.84 223.26 - -
2030 3170.83 - 17.16 1.99 240.58 - -
2031 3413.83 - 18.48 2.14 259.02 - -
2032 3672.36 - 19.88 2.30 278.63 - -
2033 3947.26 - 21.37 2.47 299.49 - -
2034 4239.44 - 22.95 2.65 321.66 - -
2035 4549.83 - 24.63 2.85 345.21 - -
Total TOTAL
89.33 89.33
131.40 131.40
104.30 104.30
114.52 114.52
105.02 105.02
115.54 115.54
124.91 124.91
152.12 152.12
169.45 169.45
136.26 136.26
112.32 112.32
131.80 131.80
925.90 925.90
1222.15 1222.15
1485.41 1485.41
100% 100.000%
1803.59 1803.59
1989.54 1989.54
2159.53 2159.53
2338.67 2338.67
2529.95 2529.95
2734.03 2734.03
2951.65 2951.65
3183.56 3183.56
3430.54 3430.54
3693.45 3693.45
3973.15 3973.15
4270.57 4270.57
4586.68 4586.68
4922.50 4922.50
 TOTAL PIB Total PIB IndustriaPIB Comercio
2007 89.33 21295.98 1524.13 3726.02 Resumen
2008 131.40 25155.89 1779.35 4683.11
2009 104.30 27116.64 1975.71 5119.96 Estadísticas de la regresión
2010 114.52 29440.29 2089.32 5655.10 Coeficiente d 0.88584339
2011 105.02 34686.22 2198.49 7475.73 Coeficiente d 0.78471851
2012 115.54 40429.73 2519.44 9245.19 R^2 ajustado 0.74883826
2013 124.91 45599.99 3023.90 9714.42 Error típico 231.95644
2014 152.12 49921.46 3297.67 10235.58 Observacione 15
2015 169.45 54091.71 3456.88 10556.92
2016 136.26 57907.70 3575.79 10995.98 ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
2017 112.32 62202.73 3768.10 11473.78 Grados de libertad
2018 131.80 64929.41 3816.05 12090.18 Regresión 2
2019 925.90 69721.79 3944.54 12518.36 Residuos 12
2020 1222.15 57086.84 3200.58 10128.27 Total 14
2021 1485.41 67406.74 3508.66 12060.97
2022 1803.59 76520.13 3801.92 15027.48 Coeficientes
2023 1989.54 81876.54 4007.06 16070.71 Intercepción 782.832253
2024 2159.53 85315.35 4111.81 16736.62 PIB Total 0.10661088
2025 2338.67 88727.97 4210.18 17396.67 PIB Industria-1.87724003
2026 2529.95 92277.09 4309.85 18082.74
2027 2734.03 95968.17 4410.76 18795.87
2028 2951.65 99806.90 4512.84 19537.11
2029 3183.56 103799.17 4616.03 20307.57 Análisis de los residuales
2030 3430.54 107951.14 4720.26 21108.42
2031 3693.45 112269.18 4825.43 21940.84 Observación
Pronóstico TOTAL
2032 3973.15 116759.95 4931.47 22806.08 1 192.066371
2033 4270.57 121430.35 5038.28 23705.43 2 124.452603
2034 4586.68 126287.56 5145.73 24640.25 3 -35.1256212
2035 4922.50 131339.07 5253.73 25611.92 4 -0.66652596
5 353.673709
6 363.483377
7 -32.2898783
8 -85.5102306
9 60.2062994
10 243.815914
11 340.692669
12 541.363506
13 811.085897
14 860.644719
15 1382.52887
E VARIANZA
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
2353430.23 1176715.11 21.8704874 9.955E-05
645645.48 53803.79
2999075.71

Error típico Estadístico t ProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%

Superior 95.0%
293.026563 2.67154023 0.02035273 144.382218 1421.28229 144.382218 1421.28229
0.01797991 5.929445 6.93E-05 0.06743603 0.14578574 0.06743603 0.14578574
0.36202642 -5.1853675 0.00022732 -2.66602784 -1.08845222 -2.66602784 -1.08845222

Residuos TOTAL Energia sector Agro, pesca y Mina

-102.734536
6.94739727 6000.00

139.425621
5000.00
115.184837
-248.653489 4000.00
-247.941837 TOTAL
157.203597 3000.00
237.629811
109.245381 2000.00
-107.558584
1000.00
-228.370749
-409.568357
0.00
114.810636 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
361.500475
102.879796
a y Mina

TOTAL

2040
 Total Población PIB Precio
Transporte Total Transporte Medio WTI
2007 7204.86 3431.614 3525.27202 72.34 Resumen
2008 7576.84 3495.276 4006.04694 99.67
2009 8192.56 3559.343 4189.04214 61.95 Estadísticas de la regresión
2010 8788.88 3623.617 4359.03007 79.48 Coeficiente d 0.97334421
2011 9084.76 3688.674 4974.5015 94.88 Coeficiente d 0.94739896
2012 9092.63 3754.862 5400.24241 94.05 R^2 ajustado 0.93305322
2013 9065.78 3821.556 5649.09123 97.98 Error típico 419.851476
2014 9678.80 3888.793 5887.38556 93.17 Observacione 15
2015 10567.28 3957.099 6389.88665 48.66
2016 11385.74 4026.336 6517.66982 43.29 ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
2017 11762.60 4096.063 7061.93361 50.8 Grados de libertad
2018 11628.91 4165.255 7394.30691 65.23 Regresión 3
2019 12330.18 4232.532 7466.13232 56.99 Residuos 11
2020 8895.74 4294.396 6431.14456 39.16 Total 14
2021 11382.10 4351.267 7632.47555 68.13
2022 13616.33 4417.77 8863.92 71.84 Coeficientes
2023 14582.94 4484.37 9484.18 75.54 Intercepción 21560.204
2024 15034.89 4551.09 9882.29 79.24 Población Tot-6.19543385
2025 15479.11 4617.92 10277.35 82.95 PIB Transpor 2.31370752
2026 15959.20 4684.85 10688.20 86.65 Precio Medi -15.0679399
2027 16476.62 4751.89 11115.48 90.36
2028 17032.89 4819.04 11559.83 94.06
2029 17629.59 4886.29 12021.95 97.77
2030 18268.37 4953.66 12502.55 101.47 Análisis de los residuales
2031 18950.93 5021.13 13002.36 105.18
2032 19679.05 5088.71 13522.14 108.88 Observación
Pronóstico Total Transporte
2033 20454.58 5156.40 14062.71 112.59 1 7366.30004
2034 21279.43 5224.20 14624.89 116.29 2 7672.45209
2035 22155.62 5292.10 15209.54 120.00 3 8267.2893
120 4 7998.24535
5 8787.16361
6 9374.64657
7 9477.99469
8 9685.25247
9 11095.3817
10 11042.9962
11 11757.1142
12 11880.0239
13 11753.5566
14 9244.28465
15 11234.9545
E VARIANZA
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
34923888.1 11641296 66.0404412 2.5477E-07
1939027.88 176275.262
36862916

Error típico Estadístico t ProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%

Superior 95.0%
4334.17984 4.97445993 0.00041909 12020.7385 31099.6695 12020.7385 31099.6695
1.4748415 -4.20074554 0.00148372 -9.4415381 -2.9493296 -9.4415381 -2.9493296
0.30707268 7.5347227 1.1493E-05 1.6378451 2.98956994 1.6378451 2.98956994
6.73141477 -2.23845067 0.04682819 -29.883684 -0.25219591 -29.883684 -0.25219591
0

Residuos
-161.44301
-95.6120937
-74.7293023
790.630392
297.600181
-282.015875
-412.219217
-6.45247377
-528.098509
342.746751
5.48132534
-251.114009
576.621248
-348.540955
147.145547
 NO
Total Electricidad Gasolina/ Kerosene/ ENERGETI
Transporte Transporte GLP Alcohol Jet Full Diesel Oil COS
2007 7204.86 0.00 31.73 3251.25 240.79 3662.30 8.28
2008 7576.84 0.00 19.10 3572.50 297.74 3681.70 5.80
2009 8192.56 0.00 10.50 3983.30 194.76 3998.80 5.20
2010 8788.88 0.00 8.18 4260.89 369.40 4144.81 5.60
2011 9084.76 0.00 7.17 4410.54 371.10 4290.83 5.10
2012 9092.63 0.00 4.62 4589.40 266.48 4227.13 5.00
2013 9065.78 0.00 5.90 4706.52 203.94 4084.82 7.30
2014 9678.80 11.65 4.96 5124.63 111.74 4258.18 6.40
2015 10567.28 26.02 4.42 5745.81 172.01 4613.41 5.60
2016 11385.74 22.68 4.69 6223.87 186.20 4944.81 3.50
2017 11762.60 25.47 4.76 6454.55 184.19 5090.20 3.44
2018 11628.91 25.16 4.76 6491.71 159.08 4944.90 3.30
2019 12330.18 33.27 3.85 6911.82 149.29 5228.18 3.76
2020 8895.74 43.43 2.14 4896.58 67.35 3880.70 5.54
2021 11382.10 49.60 2.73 6333.41 100.33 4891.14 4.90
100% 0.436% 0.0240% 55.64% 0.882% 42.972% 0.043%
Proyeccion
2022-2035
2022 13616.33 59.3349225 3.27067518 7576.61636 120.028894 5851.2324 5.86183668
2023 14582.94 63.5470356 3.50285638 8114.47103 128.549597 6266.60418 6.27796125
2024 15034.89 65.5164744 3.6114163 8365.95332 132.533584 6460.8177 6.47252674
2025 15479.11 67.4522161 3.71811877 8613.13275 136.449405 6651.70822 6.66376322
2026 15959.20 69.5442702 3.83343752 8880.27208 140.681431 6858.01328 6.87044217
2027 16476.62 71.7990022 3.95772345 9168.18412 145.242539 7080.3606 7.09319245
2028 17032.89 74.2230319 4.09134145 9477.7142 150.14612 7319.40298 7.33266805
2029 17629.59 76.8232439 4.23467102 9809.74141 155.406101 7575.81934 7.58954912
2030 18268.37 79.6067979 4.38810682 10165.18 161.036966 7850.31572 7.86454298
2031 18950.93 82.58114 4.55205928 10544.9808 167.053777 8143.6264 8.15838523
2032 19679.05 85.7540137 4.72695526 10950.1325 173.472198 8456.51502 8.4718409
2033 20454.58 89.1334723 4.91323867 11381.6636 180.308521 8789.77572 8.80570557
2034 21279.43 92.727891 5.11137116 11840.6434 187.579687 9144.23441 9.16080665
2035 22155.62 96.5459796 5.32183284 12328.1841 195.303316 9520.75001 9.53800462
100.000%

13616.35
14582.95
15034.91
15479.12
15959.21
16476.64
17032.91
17629.61
18268.39
18950.95
19679.07
20454.60
21279.46
22155.64
 Población PIB Población
Electricidad Urbana PIB Total Comercio Electricidad Urbana
2007 2111.39 2205.43 21295.9842 3726.02166 7.66 7.70
2008 2045.90 2256.55 25155.8886 4683.1126 7.62 7.72
2009 2102.60 2308.27 27116.6356 5119.9586 7.65 7.74
2010 2213.27 2360.424 29440.2876 5655.10377 7.70 7.77
2011 2367.86 2413.758 34686.2243 7475.73016 7.77 7.79
2012 2596.06 2468.484 40429.7344 9245.19371 7.86 7.81
2013 2711.99 2524.214 45599.994 9714.42251 7.91 7.83
2014 2816.33 2581.031 49921.4644 10235.5751 7.94 7.86
2015 3152.65 2639.227 54091.7138 10556.9241 8.06 7.88
2016 3261.14 2698.732 57907.6954 10995.9797 8.09 7.90
2017 3411.58 2759.313 62202.7252 11473.7833 8.13 7.92
2018 3564.93 2820.253 64929.4092 12090.1777 8.18 7.94
2019 3749.32 2880.619 69721.7875 12518.3619 8.23 7.97
2020 3332.52 2937.968 57086.8369 10128.2726 8.11 7.99
2021 3671.61 2992.584 67406.7381 12060.97 8.21 8.00
2022 3770.08 3054.31214 76520.129 15027.4765 8.02
2023 3912.84 3116.774 81876.5381 16070.7092 8.04
2024 4007.06 3179.96957 85315.3527 16736.6234 8.06
2025 4099.49 3243.89886 88727.9668 17396.6705 8.08
2026 4193.94 3308.56186 92277.0854 18082.7428 8.10
2027 4290.47 3373.95857 95968.1689 18795.8662 8.12
2028 4389.13 3440.089 99806.8956 19537.1071 8.14
2029 4489.94 3506.95314 103799.171 20307.5738 8.16
2030 4592.98 3574.551 107951.138 21108.4186 8.18
2031 4698.27 3642.88257 112269.184 21940.8388 8.20
2032 4805.87 3711.94786 116759.951 22806.0791 8.22
2033 4915.83 3781.74686 121430.349 23705.4333 8.24
2034 5028.19 3852.27957 126287.563 24640.2461 8.26
2035 5143.02 3923.546 131339.066 25611.9153 8.27
 PIB
PIB Total Comercio
9.97 8.22 7.59 1981.61
R² Ajustado 0.9797560073
10.13 8.45 7.65 2107.94
10.21 8.54 7.69 2183.57 Estadistico F α=0.05=5%
10.29 8.64 7.73 2267.14 Fcalculad 226.85 Fcalc.>Ftabla, con 95% de con
10.45 8.92 7.77 2356.74 Ftabla 3.58743 significativa de las variables
10.61 9.13 7.82 2492.90 Valor Critico 3.599233E-10 variables indepen
10.73 9.18 7.91 2734.96 Estadistico t α=5%
10.82 9.23 7.98 2916.82 tcalculada ttabla
10.90 9.26 8.04 3108.65 Población Total (Miles)) 0.3622 2.2010
10.97 9.31 8.09 3263.75 Viviendas (Miles) 4.2970 2.2010
11.04 9.35 8.14 3434.60 (Hab/viv) 2.9173 2.2010
11.08 9.40 8.16 3507.01 Dubin Watson (d) Autocorrelacion
11.15 9.43 8.22 3700.59 Variables Explicativas 3 dL
10.95 9.22 8.12 3372.02 Observaciones 15 dU
11.12 9.40 8.21 3663.20
11.25 9.62 8.23 3770.08 d 0.018208305/0.0107173
11.31 9.68 8.27 3912.84
11.35 9.73 8.30 4007.06

1.465
11.39 9.76 8.32 4099.49
0.591
1.69897
0
11.43 9.80 8.34 4193.94
11.47 9.84 8.36 4290.47
11.51 9.88 8.39 4389.13
11.55 9.92 8.41 4489.94
11.59 9.96 8.43 4592.98
11.63 10.00 8.45 4698.27
11.67 10.03 8.48 4805.87 dL dU No Autocorrelacion
4-dU
11.71 10.07 8.50 4915.83 Autoco. Positiva
11.75 10.11 8.52 5028.19
11.79 10.15 8.55 5143.02

`
 7.59166274 Resumen
0.979756007350737
% Estadísticas de la regresión
Fcalc.>Ftabla, con 95% de confianza, existe relacion Coeficiente d 0.99201512
significativa de las variables dependientes y las Coeficiente d 0.98409401
variables independientes. R^2 ajustado 0.97975601
% Error típico 0.03121374
p(tcalc. < ttabla) Observacione 15
72.407175% no es significativo
0.126232% es significativo ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
1.400372% es significativo Grados de libertad
Regresión 3
0.591 Residuos 11
1.465 Total 14

0.00000 Coeficientes
Intercepción 0.76557173
Población Ur 0.14254793
PIB Total 0.91150086
4
3.3

PIB Comerci -0.40807095

Análisis de los residuales

ocorrelacion
4-dU 4-dL Observación
Pronóstico Electricidad
Autoc. Negativa 1 7.59166274
2 7.65346709
3 7.68871731
4 7.72627561
5 7.76503328
6 7.8212005
7 7.91387215
8 7.97825073
9 8.0419443
10 8.09063091
11 8.14165468
12 8.1625199
13 8.21624669
14 8.12326814
15 8.20609206
E VARIANZA
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
0.66307104 0.22102368 226.854394 3.5992E-10
0.01071727 0.0009743
0.67378831

Error típico Estadístico t ProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%

Superior 95.0%
1.9702792 0.38856002 0.70501692 -3.57098355 5.10212702 -3.57098355 5.10212702
0.39357154 0.36219064 0.72407175 -0.72369719 1.00879305 -0.72369719 1.00879305
0.21212592 4.29698021 0.00126232 0.44461487 1.37838685 0.44461487 1.37838685
0.1398773 -2.91734935 0.01400372 -0.71593881 -0.10020309 -0.71593881 -0.10020309

Residuos
0.06344061
-0.02987402
-0.03778735
-0.02404785
0.00471001
0.04055048
-0.00843448
-0.03506089
0.01405395
-0.0007986
-0.00672401
0.01637995
0.01308402
-0.01178451
0.00229269
 Total Gasolinas/ Kerosene/
Electricidad Gas Licuado Diesel Oil Fuel Oil
secundarias Alcohol Jet Fuel
2007 2842.52 232.46 20.25 0.00 8.27 1729.07 338.10
2008 3376.80 313.50 263.50 0.00 7.10 1962.30 328.00
2009 4474.30 353.00 148.10 158.00 227.00 2523.20 388.00
2010 4603.79 403.24 403.24 346.84 170.55 125.25 2432.24
2011 5471.41 408.94 349.39 195.48 210.44 3149.52 253.99
2012 6438.61 430.87 369.29 293.39 478.86 3339.50 253.89
2013 6438.61 437.13 405.01 344.67 105.56 3582.97 249.98
2014 6299.52 427.03 405.61 373.17 15.62 3754.12 227.00
2015 5723.79 414.70 431.75 285.35 9.30 3234.97 215.25
2016 5143.14 401.07 454.33 272.76 11.69 2822.53 229.37
2017 5158.47 403.17 465.85 414.09 12.55 3204.00 275.12
2018 5074.88 382.36 480.80 441.61 10.92 3244.06 214.63
2019 4914.53 375.01 488.56 205.54 10.92 2814.65 218.00
2020 3369.56 277.95 345.16 157.04 11.38 1990.46 175.02
2021 3842.04 357.70 405.89 170.73 11.12 2500.30 189.93
100% 8.25% 10.24% 4.66% 0.34% 59.07% 5.19%
PROYECCI
ON
ELECTRICI
DAD 22-35
2022 3554.26 293.19 364.07 165.65 12.00 2099.56 184.61
2023 3719.67 306.83 381.02 173.36 12.56 2197.27 193.21
2024 3859.27 318.35 395.32 179.86 13.03 2279.74 200.46
2025 3997.23 329.73 409.45 186.29 13.50 2361.24 207.62
2026 4135.53 341.14 423.62 192.74 13.96 2442.93 214.81
2027 4274.15 352.57 437.81 199.20 14.43 2524.81 222.01
2028 4413.06 364.03 452.04 205.68 14.90 2606.87 229.22
2029 4552.27 375.51 466.30 212.16 15.37 2689.10 236.45
2030 4691.74 387.02 480.59 218.66 15.84 2771.49 243.70
2031 4831.45 398.54 494.90 225.17 16.31 2854.02 250.95
2032 4971.38 410.09 509.23 231.70 16.79 2936.68 258.22
2033 5111.52 421.64 523.59 238.23 17.26 3019.46 265.50
2034 5251.82 433.22 537.96 244.77 17.73 3102.34 272.79
2035 5392.25 444.80 552.35 251.31 18.21 3185.30 280.08

Total Población PIB Precio

PIB Total
secundarias Total Industrial Medio WTI PIB Comercio
2007 2842.52 3431.61 21295.98 1524.13 72.34 3726.02166
R^2 ajustado
2008 3376.80 3495.28 25155.89 1779.35 99.67 4683.1126
2009 4474.30 3559.34 27116.64 1975.71 61.95 5119.9586 Estadistico F α
2010 4603.79 3623.62 29440.29 2089.32 79.48 5655.10377 Fcalculad
2011 5471.41 3688.67 34686.22 2198.49 94.88 7475.73016 Ftabla
2012 6438.61 3754.86 40429.73 2519.44 94.05 9245.19371 Valor critico
2013 6438.61 3821.56 45599.99 3023.90 97.98 9714.42251 Estadistico t
2014 6299.52 3888.79 49921.46 3297.67 93.17 10235.5751
2015 5723.79 3957.10 54091.71 3456.88 48.66 10556.9241 Precio Medio WTI
2016 5143.14 4026.34 57907.70 3575.79 43.29 10995.9797 PIB Comercio
2017 5158.47 4096.06 62202.73 3768.10 50.80 11473.7833
2018 5074.88 4165.26 64929.41 3816.05 65.23 12090.1777 Dubin Watson (d) Autoco
2019 4914.53 4232.53 69721.79 3944.54 56.99 12518.3619 Variables Explicativas
2020 3369.56 4294.40 57086.84 3200.58 39.16 10128.2726 Observaciones
2021 3842.04 4351.27 67406.74 3508.66 68.13 12060.97
2022 3554.26 4417.77 76520.13 3801.92 71.84 15027.48 d
2023 3719.67 4484.37 81876.54 4007.06 75.54 16070.71
2024 3859.27 4551.09 85315.35 4111.81 79.24 16736.62
2025 3997.23 4617.92 88727.97 4210.18 82.95 17396.67
0
2026 4135.53 4684.85 92277.09 4309.85 86.65 18082.74
2027 4274.15 4751.89 95968.17 4410.76 90.36 18795.87
2028 4413.06 4819.04 99806.90 4512.84 94.06 19537.11
2029 4552.27 4886.29 103799.17 4616.03 97.77 20307.57
2030 4691.74 4953.66 107951.14 4720.26 101.47 21108.42
2031 4831.45 5021.13 112269.18 4825.43 105.18 21940.84
2032 4971.38 5088.71 116759.95 4931.47 108.88 22806.08
2033 5111.52 5156.40 121430.35 5038.28 112.59 23705.43 Autoco. Positiva
2034 5251.82 5224.20 126287.56 5145.73 116.29 24640.25
2035 5392.25 5292.10 131339.07 5253.73 120.00 25611.92
 No
Coques
Energetico
149.12 365.25 500.00
153.50 348.90
306.70 370.30 450.00
526.73 306.00
388.55 515.10 400.00
797.20 475.60
782.50 310.30
350.00
734.97 362.00
778.58 353.90
300.00
562.01 389.40
0.00 383.68
0.00 300.50 250.00

453.62 348.23
231.03 181.53 200.00
0.00 206.37
6.86% 5.39% 100.00% 150.00

100.00

50.00
243.69 191.48 3554.26
255.03 200.39 0.00
264.60 207.91 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
274.06 215.34
283.54 222.80
293.05 230.26
302.57 237.75
312.11 245.25
321.68 252.76
331.26 260.29
340.85 267.83
350.46 275.37
360.08 282.93
369.71 290.50

Resumen
R^2 ajustado 36.09%
stadistico F α=0.05=5% Estadísticas de la regresión
Fcalculad 4.95 Fcalc.>Ftabla, con 95% de confianza, existe Coeficiente d
Ftabla 3.88529 relacion significativa de las variables dependientes y Coeficiente d
Valor critico 0.02701193 las variables independientes. R^2 ajustado
stadistico t α=5% Error típico
tcalculada ttabla p(tcalc. < ttabla) Observacione
 Precio Medio WTI 2.4023 2.1788 282.881206% es significativo
PIB Comercio 2.8442 2.1788 6.013302% es significativo ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
ubin Watson (d) Autocorrelacion Regresión
Variables Explicativas 2 dL 0.7 Residuos
Observaciones 15 dU 1.252 Total

d9259714.759/9844428.339 #DIV/0!
Intercepción
0.94060

Precio Medi

2.535
PIB Comerci
0.591

1.465

3.409
4

Análisis de los residuales

Observación
dL dU No Autocorrelacion 4-dU 4-dL 1
Autoco. Positiva Autoc. Negativa 2
3
3554.25829 4
3719.66549 5
3859.26742 6
3997.23299 7
4135.53045 8
4274.14589 9
4413.06376 10
4552.26676 11
4691.73571 12
4831.44947 13
4971.38475 14
5111.51602 15
5251.81535
5392.25226
392.347927
392.347927
392.347927
 Electricidad
PROYECCION ELECTRICIDAD 22-35

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

tadísticas de la regresión
0.67248576
0.4522371
0.36094328
909.758533
15
ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
2 8199872.45 4099936.22 4.95364438 0.02701193
12 9931927.05 827660.588
14 18131799.5

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t ProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%

Superior 95.0%
392.347927 1462.75553 0.26822522 0.79308119 -2794.72258 3579.41843 -2794.72258 3579.41843
30.4130019 12.6601925 2.4022543 0.03338113 2.82881206 57.9971918 2.82881206 57.9971918
0.25702597 0.09036708 2.84424336 0.01477985 0.06013302 0.45391893 0.06013302 0.45391893

Análisis de los residuales

Pronóstico Total secundarias

Residuos
3550.10883 -707.591175
4627.29341 -1250.49341
3592.39574 881.904257
4263.08188 340.711555
5199.39037 272.019306
5628.94567 809.661116
5869.07276 569.534029
5856.73597 442.787216
4585.64831 1138.13683
4535.17917 607.963538
4886.38875 272.079916
5483.67774 -408.802472
5343.12907 -428.598582
4186.55022 -816.98536
5564.36831 -1722.32677

d #DIV/0!
RICIDAD 22-35
perior 95.0%