Període Pt Ingenu Error Error abs Error ^ 2 Error/Yt

1992 20.2
1993 19.5 20.2
1994 18.5 19.5
1995 19 18.5
1996 19.6 19
1997 18 19.6
1998 20.3 18
1999 19.4 20.3
2000 20.1 19.4
2001 18.6 20.1
2002 19.3 18.6 0.7 0.7 0.49 0.03626943
2003 20 18.6 1.4 1.4 1.96 0.07
1.05 1.23 5.31%
EAM(2) EQM(2) EPAM (2)

20.5

20

19.5

19

18.5

18

17.5

17

16.5
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Pt Ingenu
Període Pt MS Error Error abs Error^2 Error/Yt
1992 20.2 19.32
1993 19.5 19.32
1994 18.5 19.32
1995 19 19.32
1996 19.6 19.32
1997 18 19.32
1998 20.3 19.32
1999 19.4 19.32
2000 20.1 19.32
2001 18.6 19.32
2002 19.3 19.32 -0.02 0.02 0.0004 0.00103627
2003 20 19.32 0.68 0.68 0.4624 0.034
0.35 0.2314 1.75%
EAM (2) EQM (2) EPAM (2)

20.5

20

19.5

19

18.5

18

17.5

17

16.5
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Pt MS
2002 2004
Període Pt MM k=2 Error Error abs Error^2 Error/Yt
1992 20.2
1993 19.5
1994 18.5 19.85
1995 19 19
1996 19.6 18.75
1997 18 19.3
1998 20.3 18.8
1999 19.4 19.15
2000 20.1 19.85
2001 18.6 19.75
2002 19.3 19.35 -0.05 0.05 0.0025 0.00259067
2003 20 19.35 0.65 0.65 0.4225 0.0325
0.35 0.2125 1.75%
EAM (2) EQM (2) EPAM (2)

20.5

20

19.5

19

18.5

18

17.5

17

16.5
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Pt MM k=2
Període Pt MM k=2 Error Error abs Error^2 Error/Yt
1992 20.2
1993 19.5
1994 18.5
1995 19 19.4
1996 19.6 19
1997 18 19.03
1998 20.3 18.87
1999 19.4 19.3
2000 20.1 19.23
2001 18.6 19.93
2002 19.3 19.37 -0.067 0.067 0.004 0.003
2003 20 19.37 0.633 0.633 0.401 0.032
0.35 0.20 1.76%
EAM (2) EQM (2) EPAM (2)

20.5

20

19.5

19

18.5

18

17.5

17

16.5
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Pt MM k=2
Període Pt AES 0,2 Error Error abs Error^2 Error/Yt
1992 20.2
1993 19.5 20.2
1994 18.5 20.06
1995 19 19.75
1996 19.6 19.60
1997 18 19.60
1998 20.3 19.28
1999 19.4 19.48
2000 20.1 19.47
2001 18.6 19.59
2002 19.3 19.39 -0.095 0.095 0.009 0.005
2003 20 19.39 0.605 0.605 0.367 0.030
0.35 0.19 1.76%
EAM (2) EQM (2) EPAM (2)

20.5

20

19.5

19

18.5

18

17.5

17

16.5
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Pt AES 0,2
0.2
Període Pt AES 0,2 Error Error abs Error^2 Error/Yt
1992 20.2
1993 19.5 20.2
1994 18.5 19.92
1995 19 19.35
1996 19.6 19.21
1997 18 19.37
1998 20.3 18.82
1999 19.4 19.41
2000 20.1 19.41
2001 18.6 19.68
2002 19.3 19.25 0.049 0.049 0.002 0.003
2003 20 19.25 0.749 0.749 0.562 0.037
0.39940385 0.28 2.00%
EAM (2) EQM (2) EPAM (2)

20.5

20

19.5

19

18.5

18

17.5

17

16.5
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Pt AES 0,2
 0.4

2000 2002 2004

Quin mètode escolliries per fere prediccions pels anys 2004 i 2005?