Resultados

Ajuste de una serie de datos a la distribucin logGumbel o distribucin de Frchet

Serie de datos X:
---------------------------------------N
X
---------------------------------------1
16.81
2
11.947
3
28.92
4
64.26
5
24.27
6
24.9
7
34.32
8
42.81
9
30.6
10
39.67
11
19.53
12
17.85
13
30.87
14
13.8
15
24.54
16
48.67
17
16.09
18
46.55
19
8.39
20
29.54
21
29.18
22
66.94
23
144.89
24
65.8
25
16.48
26
123.77
27
87.31
28
62.44
29
56.25
30
33.61
31
12.01
32
50.48
33
17.01
34
250.0
35
63.75
36
13.0
37
40.63
38
40.0
39
13.71
40
70.83
41
35.795
42
43.02
43
56.922
44
90.63
45
99.342
46
56.44

47
65.42
48
59.08
49
326.5
50
128.174
51
110.2
52
68.9
53
90.925
54
18.938
55
14.85
56
28.96
57
61.612
58
25.09
----------------------------------------

Clculos del ajuste Smirnov Kolmogorov:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------m
X
P(X)
G(Y) Ordinario G(Y) Mom Lineal Delta
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1
8.39
0.0169
0.0007
0.0016
0.0163
2
11.947
0.0339
0.0166
0.0246
0.0173
3
12.01
0.0508
0.0172
0.0254
0.0336
4
13.0
0.0678
0.0282
0.0388
0.0396
5
13.71
0.0847
0.0380
0.0502
0.0467
6
13.8
0.1017
0.0394
0.0518
0.0623
7
14.85
0.1186
0.0568
0.0712
0.0619
8
16.09
0.1356
0.0808
0.0971
0.0548
9
16.48
0.1525
0.0890
0.1058
0.0635
10
16.81
0.1695
0.0962
0.1132
0.0733
11
17.01
0.1864
0.1006
0.1178
0.0859
12
17.85
0.2034
0.1198
0.1375
0.0836
13
18.938
0.2203
0.1457
0.1637
0.0746
14
19.53
0.2373
0.1602
0.1782
0.0771
15
24.27
0.2542
0.2772
0.2922
0.0230
16
24.54
0.2712
0.2837
0.2984
0.0125
17
24.9
0.2881
0.2922
0.3066
0.0041
18
25.09
0.3051
0.2967
0.3109
0.0084
19
28.92
0.3220
0.3819
0.3919
0.0598
20
28.96
0.3390
0.3827
0.3927
0.0437
21
29.18
0.3559
0.3873
0.3970
0.0313
22
29.54
0.3729
0.3946
0.4040
0.0218
23
30.6
0.3898
0.4158
0.4240
0.0259
24
30.87
0.4068
0.4210
0.4290
0.0142
25
33.61
0.4237
0.4712
0.4764
0.0474
26
34.32
0.4407
0.4832
0.4878
0.0426
27
35.795
0.4576
0.5072
0.5105
0.0496
28
39.67
0.4746
0.5635
0.5638
0.0889
29
40.0
0.4915
0.5679
0.5680
0.0763
30
40.63
0.5085
0.5761
0.5758
0.0676
31
42.81
0.5254
0.6027
0.6011
0.0773
32
43.02
0.5424
0.6052
0.6035
0.0628
33
46.55
0.5593
0.6432
0.6397
0.0838

34
48.67
0.5763
0.6634
0.6591
0.0872
35
50.48
0.5932
0.6794
0.6744
0.0862
36
56.25
0.6102
0.7235
0.7169
0.1133
37
56.44
0.6271
0.7248
0.7181
0.0976
38
56.922
0.6441
0.7280
0.7213
0.0839
39
59.08
0.6610
0.7418
0.7346
0.0808
40
61.612
0.6780
0.7567
0.7491
0.0787
41
62.44
0.6949
0.7612
0.7536
0.0663
42
63.75
0.7119
0.7682
0.7604
0.0564
43
64.26
0.7288
0.7709
0.7629
0.0420
44
65.42
0.7458
0.7767
0.7686
0.0309
45
65.8
0.7627
0.7785
0.7704
0.0158
46
66.94
0.7797
0.7840
0.7757
0.0043
47
68.9
0.7966
0.7928
0.7844
0.0038
48
70.83
0.8136
0.8010
0.7925
0.0126
49
87.31
0.8305
0.8543
0.8454
0.0238
50
90.63
0.8475
0.8623
0.8534
0.0148
51
90.925
0.8644
0.8630
0.8541
0.0014
52
99.342
0.8814
0.8803
0.8716
0.0010
53
110.2
0.8983
0.8980
0.8896
0.0003
54
123.77
0.9153
0.9149
0.9070
0.0003
55
128.174
0.9322
0.9195
0.9117
0.0127
56
144.89
0.9492
0.9336
0.9264
0.0155
57
250.0
0.9661
0.9723
0.9678
0.0062
58
326.5
0.9831
0.9820
0.9786
0.0010
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Ajuste con momentos ordinarios:
------------------------------------------------------Como el delta terico 0.1133, es menor que el delta tabular 0.1786. Los datos se ajustan a la
distribucin logGumbel, con un nivel de significacin del 5%
-----------------------------------------------------------Parmetros de la distribucin logGumbel:
-----------------------------------------------------------Con momentos ordinarios:
Parmetro de posicin ()= 3.3413
Parmetro de escala (alfa)= 0.6104
Con momentos lineales:
Parmetro de posicin (l)= 3.3225
Parmetro de escala (alfal)= 0.6429
-----------------------------Caudal de diseo:
-----------------------------El caudal de diseo para un periodo de retorno de 1000 aos, es 1914.81