AO

ENL

CONG

CUR

FR

Pob

IPC01

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

22.2
45.4
52.0
28.9
27.9
21.1
21.4
21.3
26.3
34.4
42.9
45.7
61.6
31.6
32.9
35.4
41.0
25.9
55.5
37.7
46.0
61.5
55.5
74.4
65.3
71.3
92.1
75.9

13.7
27.8
20.7
26.6
31.0
39.4
19.6
11.3
12.7
13.6
25.3
24.2
15.1
9.4
10.6
13.7
23.5
33.1
27.3
33.4
54.7
29.9
43.6
41.9
61.9
98.3
67.0
71.6

5.1
9.0
12.0
13.4
8.4
13.0
13.4
12.8
17.3
21.3
27.4
21.8
16.3
17.9
21.3
19.3
21.7
17.2
15.4
14.6
14.5
14.6
12.5
13.7
14.1
11.9
13.0
14.1

181.9
218.3
220.4
225.4
242.9
287.5
124.4
220.4
245.9
259.0
283.2
262.9
269.5
263.2
285.2
356.7
387.8
341.4
360.2
374.7
323.4
381.4
393.5
376.6
385.1
332.5
392.4
420.3

19,515,785
19,962,821
20,414,886
20,867,194
21,314,933
21,753,328
22,179,595
22,596,921
23,009,480
23,421,416
23,836,867
24,257,671
24,681,045
25,104,276
25,524,613
25,939,329
26,346,840
26,748,972
27,148,101
27,546,574
27,946,774
28,348,700
28,750,770
29,152,987
29,555,329
29,957,804
30,361,452
30,766,292

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.14
11.08
26.52
41.56
57.97
66.88
73.72
82.45
87.78
93.06
96.52
100.13
100.00
101.52
104.04
107.66
109.27
110.51
114.85
122.49
122.79
125.34
131.29
134.76

PBI94 PBIpes94DEMint94
91,250
102,301
110,222
99,839
86,431
82,032
83,760
83,401
87,375
98,577
107,064
109,760
117,294
116,522
117,587
121,057
121,317
127,402
132,544
139,141
148,640
160,145
174,407
191,505
193,155
210,143
224,668
238,773

366
475
420
542
565
582
446
567
589
713
614
584
574
497
637
704
626
664
596
779
804
823
879
934
861
719
933
822

88,276
102,744
112,251
101,321
84,421
82,264
85,091
85,287
89,402
101,909
114,008
115,553
123,656
122,499
118,718
121,458
120,938
125,894
130,513
135,527
143,410
158,220
176,822
198,591
193,061
218,362
234,059
251,411

Inf
158.26
62.90
114.51
1,722.32
2,774.98
7,649.65
139.23
56.73
39.48
15.38
10.23
11.84
6.46
6.01
3.73
3.73
-0.13
1.52
2.48
3.48
1.49
1.14
3.93
6.65
0.25
2.08
4.74
2.65

MODELO 1

ENLATADOS

Chart

300,000

100.0
90.0

250,000

80.0
70.0
60.0

f(x) = 1.7275213465x - 3407.6952323482

R = 0.5432952424

200,000

f(x) = 4912.0047672113x - 96
R = 0.8053313612

150,000

50.0
40.0

100,000

30.0
20.0

50,000

10.0
0.0
1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

0
1980

2015

Chart Title
100.0

90.0

90.0

80.0

80.0

60.0

70.0

f(x) = 0.0837415484x - 10.0087788462

R ==0.4521718681
f(x)
49.967370612 ln(x) - 277.7925512247
R = 0.3978138521

19

f(x) = 0.000004129x - 59.50205

R = 0.5330531957

60.0
50.0

50.0

40.0

40.0

30.0

30.0

20.0

20.0

10.0

10.0
0.0
300

1990

POBLACIO

100.0

70.0

1985

0.0
15,000,000
400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

20,000,000

25,

MODELO 2

Chart Title

PBI94 Y ENLATAD

100.0
90.0
80.0

f(x) = 0.0003787074x - 4.9669444137

R = 0.782239245

70.0

) = 4912.0047672113x - 9685344.58876291
= 0.8053313612

60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

POBLACION Y ENLATADO

0.000004129x - 59.5020534813
0.5330531957

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

0.0
50,000

100,000

150,000

PBI94 Y ENLATADOS

4x - 4.9669444137

150,000

200,000

250,000

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones

0.8934640561
0.7982780196
0.7821402612
8.9987327162
28

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Regresin
Residuos
Total

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2

Grados de libertad
2
25
27

Suma de cuadrados
8011.3122956829
2024.4297624242
10035.7420581071

Coeficientes
Error tpico
20.8567925664
19.0757825155
-1.5749295248759E-006 1.117074504473E-006
0.0004849082
8.457831837508E-005

Promedio de los cuadrados

4005.6561478415
80.977190497

Estadstico t
1.0933649799
-1.4098697254
5.7332446924

F
49.4664747

Valor crtico de F
0.000000002

Probabilidad
Inferior 95%
Superior 95%
Inferior 95.0%
0.28465742
-18.4305169482
60.14410208
-18.4305169482
0.17089837 -3.875587533135E-006 7.2573E-007 -3.8755875331E-006
5.669E-006
0.0003107159
0.000659101
0.0003107159

Superior 95.0%
60.144102081
7.257284834E-007
0.0006591005

AO
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

ENL
22.2
45.4
52.0
28.9
27.9
21.1
21.4
21.3
26.3
34.4
42.9
45.7
61.6
31.6
32.9
35.4
41.0
25.9
55.5
37.7
46.0
61.5
55.5
74.4
65.3
71.3
92.1
75.9

Pob
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###

PBI94
91,250
102,301
110,222
99,839
86,431
82,032
83,760
83,401
87,375
98,577
107,064
109,760
117,294
116,522
117,587
121,057
121,317
127,402
132,544
139,141
148,640
160,145
174,407
191,505
193,155
210,143
224,668
238,773

PBIpes94 DEMint94
366
88,276
475
102,744
420
112,251
542
101,321
565
84,421
582
82,264
446
85,091
567
85,287
589
89,402
713
101,909
614
114,008
584
115,553
574
123,656
497
122,499
637
118,718
704
121,458
626
120,938
664
125,894
596
130,513
779
135,527
804
143,410
823
158,220
879
176,822
934
198,591
861
193,061
719
218,362
933
234,059
822
251,411

Inf
158.26
62.90
114.51
1,722.32
2,774.98
7,649.65
139.23
56.73
39.48
15.38
10.23
11.84
6.46
6.01
3.73
3.73
-0.13
1.52
2.48
3.48
1.49
1.14
3.93
6.65
0.25
2.08
4.74
2.65

AO
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###

ENL
22.2
45.4
52.0
28.9
27.9
21.1
21.4
21.3
26.3
34.4
42.9
45.7
61.6
31.6
32.9
35.4
41.0
25.9
55.5
37.7
46.0
61.5
55.5
74.4
65.3
69.9
92.1

CUR
5.1
9.0
12.0
13.4
8.4
13.0
13.4
12.8
17.3
21.3
27.4
21.8
16.3
17.9
21.3
19.3
21.7
17.2
15.4
14.6
14.5
14.6
12.5
13.7
14.1
11.9
13.0

CONG
13.7
27.8
20.7
26.6
31.0
39.4
19.6
11.3
12.7
13.6
25.3
24.2
15.1
9.4
10.6
13.7
23.5
33.1
27.3
33.4
54.7
29.9
43.6
41.9
61.9
98.3
67.0

FR
181.9
218.3
220.4
225.4
242.9
287.5
124.4
220.4
245.9
259.0
283.2
262.9
269.5
263.2
285.2
356.7
387.8
341.4
360.2
374.7
323.4
381.4
393.5
376.6
385.1
332.5
392.4

Pob
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
3E+007
###
###

PBI94
PBIpes94DEMint94 IPC01
91,249.55
366
88276
0
102,300.53
475
102744
0
110,222.40
420
112251
0
99,839.22
542
101321
0
86,431.40
565
84421
0
82,032.21
582
82264
11
83,759.69
446
85091
27
83,400.56
567
85,287
42
87,374.59
589
89,402
58
98,577.44
713
101,909
67
107,063.89
614
114,008
74
109,759.99
584
115,553
82
117,293.99
574
123,656
88
116,522.25
497
122,499
93
117,587.42
637
118,718
97
121,056.94
704
121,458
100
121,317.09
626
120,938
100
127,402.01
664
125,894
102
132,543.84
596
130,513
104
139,141.24
779
135,527
108
148,639.98
804
143,410
109
160,145.45
823
158,220
111
174,407.40
879
176,822
115
191,505.21
934
198,591
122
193,155.40
861
193,061
123
210,142.94
719
218,362
125
224,668.33
933
234,059
131
238,773.30
822
251,411
135
253099.7
838.38 267250 137.46
269,551.18
872
285423
140
287,072.01
907
304547
143

Inf
158.26
62.90
114.51
1,722.32
2,774.98
7,649.65
139.23
56.73
39.48
15.38
10.23
11.84
6.46
6.01
3.73
3.73
-0.13
1.52
2.48
3.48
1.49
1.14
3.93
6.65
0.25
2.08
4.74
2.65
2.0
2.00
2.00

AO-MESENLATADO
CONGELADOCURADO FRESCO
2003-1
7,636
1,973
1,421
42,430
2003-2
6,377
1,103
1,162
27,157
2003-3
6,963
3,695
1,086
27,000
2003-4
4,105
1,231
1,608
25,595
2003-5
1,966
2,379
1,225
32,966
2003-6
2,494
2,915
1,360
50,755
2003-7
4,028
1,758
1,386
30,064
2003-8
8,165
2,106
1,758
24,226
2003-9
7,087
1,739
1,198
16,370
2003-10
1,711
3,289
1,143
24,582
2003-11
2,952
3,320
962
22,396
2003-12
2,016
1,800
1,079
36,689
2004-1
7,980
608
739
36,656
2004-2
3,827
1,899
1,439
24,507
2004-3
6,087
1,464
1,071
27,229
2004-4
2,698
2,023
1,383
27,119
2004-5
2,488
3,359
1,501
41,766
2004-6
2,546
3,878
1,110
32,557
2004-7
1,291
3,538
1,177
25,383
2004-8
2,024
2,131
1,374
28,929
2004-9
2,315
2,544
1,393
23,457
2004-10
2,097
3,749
1,060
30,530
2004-11
2,334
5,288
1,114
38,149
2004-12
1,997
2,929
1,237
38,395
2005-1
8,234
1,431
1,629
31,768
2005-2
5,241
1,848
1,467
35,028
2005-3
3,553
6,094
1,121
26,740
2005-4
1,848
6,048
1,348
24,650
2005-5
2,366
8,262
1,044
25,087
2005-6
2,610
5,612
1,012
31,661
2005-7
2,422
4,192
1,105
24,655
2005-8
2,868
7,786
1,355
21,387
2005-9
2,517
6,274
1,068
17,794
2005-10
4,175
3,249
1,188
25,368
2005-11
4,227
1,877
1,087
25,584
2005-12
5,929
2,118
1,059
33,671
2006-1
6,408
2,911
1,210
35,813
2006-2
7,085
1,749
1,153
32,405
2006-3
10,038
1,997
985
31,664
2006-4
5,931
2,330
2,280
30,579
2006-5
5,612
3,318
1,122
32,166
2006-6
3,161
2,924
1,052
32,679
2006-7
4,737
1,053
1,083
29,801
2006-8
2,296
1,406
1,178
27,293
2006-9
3,460
4,532
822
27,423
2006-10
3,866
2,856
894
30,535
2006-11
5,102
2,313
885
31,508
2006-12
3,798
2,543
1,877
39,548
2007-1
5,592
2,889
931
39,344
2007-2
5,059
5,013
831
33,429
2007-3
6,398
3,061
1,511
36,199
2007-4
3,562
1,866
1,461
35,257
2007-5
2,674
2,512
1,076
39,592

2007-6
2007-7
2007-8
2007-9
2007-10
2007-11
2007-12
2008-1
2008-2
2008-3
2008-4
2008-5
2008-6
2008-7
2008-8
2008-9
2008-10
2008-11
2008-12
2009-1
2009-2
2009-3
2009-4
2009-5
2009-6
2009-7
2009-8
2009-9
2009-10
2009-11
2009-12
2010-1
2010-2
2010-3
2010-4
2010-5
2010-6
2010-7
2010-8
2010-9
2010-10
2010-11
2010-12
2011-1
2011-2
2011-3
2011-4
2011-5
2011-6
2011-7
2011-8
2011-9
2011-10
2011-11

2,611
7,188
6,992
4,818
3,349
2,895
4,319
7,843
11,399
8,898
3,429
4,939
2,881
4,929
6,864
8,287
5,983
5,132
3,788
6,797
5326
9,021
4,816
5,827
5,076
2,959
5,694
5,637
5,795
4,190
4,165
3,322
2,701
4,958
7,550
6,155
6,493
5,304
4,221
5,645
8,229
9,999
6,679
6,400
6,600
10,100
8,800
7,700
8,700
17,300
6,600
4,000
4,200
6,600

4,796
3,570
3,244
4,962
7,192
2,497
2,004
2,590
2,064
4,104
4,008
2,178
4,627
4,947
3,864
5,107
3,623
2,821
1,990
2,559
2452
5,390
5,195
3,672
4,122
9,839
6,236
7,649
5,185
4,423
5,145
6,388
7,526
6,050
9,974
7,582
6,572
10,188
5,881
11,677
11,049
8,248
7,427
4,700
6,600
6,300
7,300
5,700
7,700
6,600
4,300
5,500
5,300
3,100

1,119
1,145
956
1,072
820
767
888
891
1,001
1,511
1,687
1,049
1,008
1,277
1,109
1,023
756
1,025
1,279
1,165
1097
1,684
2,166
1,256
884
830
1,039
968
1,004
734
1,307
729
1,866
1,742
1,113
684
796
871
907
860
744
723
658
900
1,300
1,600
1,500
1,200
800
900
900
900
900
1,100

24,566
39,910
30,451
30,019
25,813
29,936
29,232
46,680
44,297
37,210
28,095
28,088
23,673
25,592
25,644
27,292
24,621
29,525
35,850
40,494
35228
34,490
33,992
34,849
28,953
27,219
30,544
29,190
29,711
29,951
30,427
34,803
26,632
26,064
22,389
25,262
25,756
24,466
26,566
26,175
26,259
30,878
37,281
31,600
30,500
32,200
35,000
30,300
31,400
30,700
34,100
33,100
36,600
33,700

2011-12
2012-1
2012-2
2012-3
2012-4
2012-5
2012-6
2012-7
2012-8
2012-9
2012-10
2012-11
2012-12

5,100
6,700
4,900
7,800
7,900
3,300
5,700
4,100
4,200
5,800
4,100
3,000
5,000

3,900
4,000
2,500
3,100
2,900
6,000
7,100
5,800
4,100
3,700
5,700
3,400
4,500

1,000
1,500
1,700
1,600
1,200
900
900
800
800
800
600
700
700

33,200
36,800
36,200
37,200
40,300
31,300
30,100
28,800
32,600
28,800
3,100
32,500
35,500

Ao
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Pob
30,361,452
30,766,292
31,170,724
31,573,168
31,972,027

PBI94
224,669
230,713
244,555
260,451
277,381

PBIpes94 DEMint94
908
234,060
800
249,040
816
264,729
848
282,731
882
301,674

Inf
4.74
2.65
2.00
2.00
2.00

2013
2014
2015

Poblacion y PBI94

90.35513821 ton
97.42946211 ton
105.0104616 ton

110
105 f(x) = 7.327661673x - 14660.3122555291
100 R = 0.9996017325
95
90
85
80
2012.5
2013
2013.5
2014
2014.5

2015

2015.5

2015

2015.5

cong
fr
PBI94
PBIpes94
Inf
pob

PRODUCE, INEI
PRODUCE, INEI
BCR
BCR
INEI
INEI

16.4073
39.4796301

ao POLLOpc
IC
1960
27.8
397.5
1961
29.9
413.3
1962
29.8
439.2
1963
30.8
459.7
1964
31.2
492.9
1965
33.3
528.6
1966
35.6
560.3
1967
36.4
624.6
1968
36.7
666.4
1969
38.4
717.8
1970
40.4
768.2
1971
40.3
843.3
1972
41.8
911.6
1973
40.4
931.1
1974
40.7
1021.5
1975
40.1
1165.9
1976
42.7
1349.6
1977
44.1
1449.4
1978
46.7
1575.5
1979
50.6
1759.1
1980
50.1
1994.2
1981
51.7
2258.1
1982
52.9
2478.7

POLLOpr
42.2
38.1
40.3
39.5
37.3
38.1
39.3
37.8
38.4
40.1
38.6
39.8
39.7
52.1
48.9
58.3
57.9
56.5
63.7
61.6
58.9
66.4
70.4

RESpr
50.7
52
54
55.3
54.7
63.7
69.8
65.9
64.5
70
73.2
67.8
79.1
95.4
94.2
123.5
129.9
117.6
130.9
129.8
128
141
168.2

CERDOpr
78.3
79.2
79.2
79.2
77.4
80.2
80.4
83.9
85.5
93.7
106.1
104.8
114
124.1
127.6
142.9
143.6
139.2
165.5
203.3
219.6
221.6
232.6