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FACULTAD DE ECONOMIA
DPTO. ACAD. DE ECONOMIA
Al finalizar la etapa de validacin el investigador escoge el modelo ARIMA(15,1,18) que se encuentra en la pgina
C5i1. Evale la capacidad predictiva del modelo. (4 puntos)
XNTPRODAGRO
obs
183.4276
2010M07
178.6804
2010M08
190.3248
2010M09
212.9764
2010M10
250.0781
2010M11
267.6411
2010M12
EMA
18.66487
XNTPRODAGRO
XNTPRODF
163.0341
164.3411
182.5622
204.6342
216.8808
239.6867
EPMA
0.084764
2.1.
XNTPRODSA
202.1058
186.8768
173.9050
176.0003
208.4857
201.0949
RCREM
1.377684
XNTPRODSAF
179.6357
171.8798
166.8121
169.1065
180.8097
180.0911
RECM
20.95577
U
0.050653
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
PBIR
-0.529588
2.347600
1.435053
0.174608
-0.369037
13.44496
0.7127
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squaredresid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
1980Q1
1981Q1
1982Q1
1983Q1
1984Q1
1985Q1
0.599028
0.595715
14.61299
25838.29
-503.3963
1.009604
Mean dependentvar
S.D. dependentvar
Akaikeinfocriterion
Schwarzcriterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
7.114941
22.98239
8.217826
8.263552
180.7670
0.000000
2
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
RESID01(-1)
0.494910
0.079056
6.260274
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squaredresid
Log likelihood
0.244648
0.244648
12.69672
19506.01
-482.6524
Mean dependentvar
S.D. dependentvar
Akaikeinfocriterion
Schwarzcriterion
Durbin-Watson stat
-0.031128
14.60888
7.928727
7.951711
2.183833
Wald Test:
Equation: EQ02
Test Statistic
Value
F-statistic
Chi-square
2.2.
df
40.81983
40.81983
Probability
(1, 121)
1
0.0000
0.0000
30
60
20
40
10
20
0
0
-10
-20
-20
-40
-60
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
-30
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Value
3.433434
2010
@MEAN(PBIR,"1980q1 2010q3")
HypothesisTestingfor IBFR
Sample: 1980Q1 2010Q3
Includedobservations: 123
Test of Hypothesis: Mean = 0.000000
Sample Mean = 7.114941
SampleStd. Dev. = 22.98239
Method
t-statistic
2005
Probability
0.0008
3
ESTADISTICO
ADF
PP
DF-GLS
ERS
NG - P
-3.626042
-3.884259
-2.66210
0.417501
-50.8698
-5.03733
0.099023
0.496916
0.065584
MZa
MZt
MSB
MPT
KPSS
ESTADISTICO
5%
1%
-2.887665
-3.490210
-2.885249
-3.484653
-1.943741
-2.585962
3.123800
1.940800
-8.1000
-13.8000
-1.98000
-2.58000
0.23300
0.17400
3.17000
1.78000
0.463000
0.739000
IBFR es estacionaria.
HypothesisTestingfor PBIR
Sample: 1980Q1 2010Q3
Includedobservations: 123
Test of Hypothesis: Mean = 0.000000
Sample Mean = 3.256317
SampleStd. Dev. = 7.576956
Method
t-statistic
Value
4.766333
Probability
0.0000
-3.320007
-2.831086
-2.846590
0.919841
-19.76611
-3.136031
0.158656
1.267405
0.268787
MZa
MZt
MSB
MPT
KPSS
ESTADISTICO
5%
1%
-2.886290
-3.487046
-2.885249
-3.484653
-1.943587
-2.584877
3.123800
1.940800
-8.1000
-13.8000
-1.98000
-2.58000
0.23300
0.17400
3.17000
1.78000
0.463000
0.739000
PBIR es estacionaria.
RESID01no tiene intercepto, criterio Akaike y 11 retardos.
ESTADISTICO
ADF
PP
DF-GLS
ERS
NG - P
KPSS
MZa
MZt
MSB
MPT
-2.529566
-6.389040
-2.356728
0.741249
-22.6706
-3.36430
0.14840
1.08936
0.198382
RESID01 es estacionaria.
ESTADISTICO
5%
1%
-1.943741
-2.585962
-1.943471
-2.584055
-1.943741
-2.585962
3.123800
1.940800
-8.10000
-13.8000
-1.98000
-2.58000
0.23300
0.17400
3.17000
1.78000
0.463000
0.739000
4
Por lo tanto, es un proceso estacionario.
3
3.1.
3.2.