Mes Demanda Ponderado Error Erro abs

1 35
2 79
3 47
4 55 35 20 19.999965
5 74 79 - 5 5.000079
6 54 47 7 6.999953
7 73 55 18 17.999945
8 119 74 45 44.999926
9 75 54 21 20.999946
10 89 73 16 15.999927
11 103 119 - 16 16.000119
12 68 75 - 7 7.000075
13 89 - 89 89.000089
14 103 - 103 103.000103
15 68 - 68 68.000068

Mes Demanda simple

1 35
2 79
3 47
4 55 53.66666667
5 74 60.33333333
6 54 58.66666667
7 73 61
8 119 67
9 75 82
10 89 89
11 103 94.33333333
12 68 89
13 86.66666667
14 57
15 22.66666667

R.- Escogeria el metodo de winters porque es el que mas se asemeja

 W1 1.000001
W2 0
W3 0
Suma 1.000001
Chart T
250
Me - 13
MAE 34.5833496
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e mas se asemeja a la grafica, eso nos quiere decir que habra mayor certeza
 Chart Title

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bra mayor certeza en cuanto a la prediccion a realizar

Semana (t) Demanda D Demanda Sin Demanda sin Factor Factor Nivel Lt Tendencia (Tt)
estacionalidad estacionalidad estacional Estacionalidad
después de la (para (St)
regresión inicialización)

46.970 3.940
1 35 50.9 0.7 1.19 29.380 3.940
2 79 40.0 54.9 1.4 1.74 45.517 3.940
3 47 38.0 58.8 0.8 1.07 44.124 3.940
4 55 38.5 62.7 0.9 1.19 46.168 3.940
5 74 42.8 66.7 1.1 1.74 42.636 3.940
6 54 42.5 70.6 0.8 1.07 50.695 3.940
7 73 53.2 74.6 1.0 1.19 61.277 3.940
8 119 64.3 78.5 1.5 1.74 68.563 3.940
9 75 59.7 82.4 0.9 1.07 70.410 3.940
10 89 59.3 86.4 1.0 1.19 74.708 3.940
11 103 60.5 90.3 1.1 1.74 59.345 3.940
12 68 94.3 0.7 1.07 63.838 3.940
13
14
15

p 3
r 3

alpha 1.00
beta -
gama 1.00

MAD 11.09
Pronóstico Ft MED

60.649 25.649
Chart Title
57.830 21.170
140
52.681 5.681
57.258 2.258 120
86.968 12.968
49.612 4.388 100

65.087 7.913 f(x) = 3.94055944055944 x + 46.969696969697

80
113.193 5.807
77.230 2.230 60

88.574 0.426 40
136.503 33.503
67.410 0.590 20
67.410 0
80.085 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
123.515

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+ 46.969696969697

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le

9 10 11 12
Mes Demanda Pronostico error erro abs
1 35 35 0 0
2 79 26.2 52.8 52.8
3 47 32.6 14.4 14.4
4 55 31 24 24
5 74 27.2 46.8 46.8
6 54 31.2 22.8 22.8
7 73 27.4 45.6 45.6
8 119 18.2 100.8 100.8
9 75 27 48 48
10 89 24.2 64.8 64.8
11 103 21.4 81.6 81.6
12 68 28.4 39.6 39.6
13 42
14 42
15 42
alfa 0.2

me 45.1 Chart Title

mae 45.1 140

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