Mes (t) Ventas (xt) SES SES SES SES e e2

α 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.1

Febrero 231
Marzo 229 231 231 231 231 -2.00 4.00
Abril 232 231 230 230 230 1.20 1.44
Mayo 234 231 231 231 231 3.08 9.49
Junio 225 231 232 233 233 -6.23 38.79
Julio 231 231 230 229 227 0.39 0.16
Agosto 227 231 230 230 230 -3.64 13.28
Septiembre 221 230 229 228 228 -9.28 86.12
Octubre 228 229 227 225 223 -1.35 1.83
Noviembre 236 229 227 226 227 6.78 46.01
Diciembre 226 230 230 231 233 -3.90 15.17
Enero 229 230 229 229 228 -0.51 0.26
229.46 228.75 228.79 228.74 MSE 19.69
e e2 e e2 e e2
0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7

-2.00 4.00 -2.00 4.00 -2.00 4.00

1.60 2.56 2.00 4.00 2.40 5.76
3.12 9.73 3.00 9.00 2.72 7.40
-6.82 46.46 -7.50 56.25 -8.18 66.98
1.23 1.51 2.25 5.06 3.54 12.57
-3.14 9.86 -2.88 8.27 -2.94 8.62
-8.20 67.21 -7.44 55.32 -6.88 47.35
1.26 1.59 3.28 10.77 4.94 24.36
8.88 78.91 9.64 92.94 9.48 89.88
-3.78 14.30 -5.18 26.83 -7.16 51.21
0.35 0.12 0.41 0.17 0.85 0.73
MSE 21.48 MSE 24.78 MSE 28.99
Mes Galones Gas SES SES SES SES e e2
α 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.1
1 298
2 303 298.00 298.00 298.00 298.00 5.00 25.00
3 310 298.50 299.50 300.50 302.00 11.50 132.25
4 299 299.65 302.65 305.25 308.40 -0.65 0.42
5 285 299.59 301.56 302.13 300.88 -14.59 212.72
6 250 298.13 296.59 293.56 288.18 -48.13 2316.16
7 260 293.31 282.61 271.78 257.64 -33.31 1109.81
8 245 289.98 275.83 265.89 259.53 -44.98 2023.42
9 271 285.48 266.58 255.45 247.91 -14.48 209.79
10 282 284.04 267.91 263.22 266.38 -2.04 4.14
11 302 283.83 272.13 272.61 278.88 18.17 330.07
12 285 285.65 281.09 287.31 297.38 -0.65 0.42
285.58 282.27 286.15 287.48 MSE 578.57
e e2 e e2 e e2
0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8

5.00 25.00 5.00 25.00 5.00 25.00

10.50 110.25 9.50 90.25 8.00 64.00
-3.65 13.32 -6.25 39.06 -9.40 88.36
-16.56 274.07 -17.13 293.27 -15.88 252.17
-46.59 2170.49 -43.56 1897.69 -38.18 1457.41
-22.61 511.30 -11.78 138.80 2.36 5.59
-30.83 950.39 -20.89 436.42 -14.53 211.03
4.42 19.54 15.55 241.95 23.09 533.36
14.09 198.64 18.78 352.59 15.62 243.95
29.87 891.97 29.39 863.69 23.12 534.71
3.91 15.26 -2.31 5.32 -12.38 153.15
MSE 470.93 MSE 398.55 MSE 324.43
Mes (t) Ventas (xt) SES SES SES SES e e2
α 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.1
Febrero 231
Marzo 229 231.00 231.00 231.00 231.00 -2 4
Abril 232 230.80 230.40 230.00 229.60 1.2 1.44
Mayo 234 230.92 230.88 231.00 231.28 3.08 9.4864
Junio 225 231.23 231.82 232.50 233.18 -6.228 38.787984
Julio 231 230.61 229.77 228.75 227.46 0.3948 0.15586704
Agosto 227 230.64 230.14 229.88 229.94 -3.64468 13.2836923
Septiembre 221 230.28 229.20 228.44 227.88 -9.280212 86.1223348
Octubre 228 229.35 226.74 224.72 223.06 -1.3521908 1.82841996
Noviembre 236 229.22 227.12 226.36 226.52 6.78302828 46.0094726
Diciembre 226 229.90 229.78 231.18 233.16 -3.89527455 15.1731638
Enero 229 229.51 228.65 228.59 228.15 -0.50574709 0.25578012
229.46 MSE 19.69
e e2 e e2 e e2
0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7

-2 4 -2 4 -2 4
1.6 2.56 2 4 2.4 5.76
3.12 9.7344 3 9 2.72 7.3984
-6.816 46.457856 -7.5 56.25 -8.184 66.977856
1.2288 1.50994944 2.25 5.0625 3.5448 12.565607
-3.13984 9.85859523 -2.875 8.265625 -2.93656 8.62338463
-8.197888 67.2053677 -7.4375 55.3164063 -6.880968 47.3477206
1.2614784 1.59132775 3.28125 10.7666016 4.9357096 24.3612293
8.88303488 78.9083087 9.640625 92.9416504 9.48071288 89.8839167
-3.78187558 14.3025829 -5.1796875 26.8291626 -7.15578614 51.2052752
0.35268709 0.12438818 0.41015625 0.16822815 0.85326416 0.72805973
MSE 21.48 MSE 24.78 MSE 28.99
Mes Galones Gas SES SES SES SES e e2
α 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.1
1 298
2 303 298.00 298.00 298.00 298.00 5.00 25.00
3 310 298.50 299.50 300.50 302.00 11.50 132.25
4 299 299.65 302.65 305.25 308.40 -0.65 0.42
5 285 299.59 301.56 302.13 300.88 -14.59 212.72
6 250 298.13 296.59 293.56 288.18 -48.13 2316.16
7 260 293.31 282.61 271.78 257.64 -33.31 1109.81
8 245 289.98 275.83 265.89 259.53 -44.98 2023.42
9 271 285.48 266.58 255.45 247.91 -14.48 209.79
10 282 284.04 267.91 263.22 266.38 -2.04 4.14
11 302 283.83 272.13 272.61 278.88 18.17 330.07
12 285 285.65 281.09 287.31 297.38 -0.65 0.42
MSE 578.57
e e2 e e2 e e2
0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8

5.00 25.00 5.00 25.00 5.00 25.00

10.50 110.25 9.50 90.25 8.00 64.00
-3.65 13.32 -6.25 39.06 -9.40 88.36
-16.56 274.07 -17.13 293.27 -15.88 252.17
-46.59 2170.49 -43.56 1897.69 -38.18 1457.41
-22.61 511.30 -11.78 138.80 2.36 5.59
-30.83 950.39 -20.89 436.42 -14.53 211.03
4.42 19.54 15.55 241.95 23.09 533.36
14.09 198.64 18.78 352.59 15.62 243.95
29.87 891.97 29.39 863.69 23.12 534.71
3.91 15.26 -2.31 5.32 -12.38 153.15
MSE 470.93 MSE 398.55 MSE 324.43