Berikut merupakan data demand (Dt) air passangers dari tahun 1949 - 1960.

ID Date Year Month Air ID Date Year Month Air

Passengers Passengers
1 1/1/1949 1949 1 112 37 1/1/1952 1952 1 171
2 2/1/1949 1949 2 118 38 2/1/1952 1952 2 180
3 3/1/1949 1949 3 132 39 3/1/1952 1952 3 193
4 4/1/1949 1949 4 129 40 4/1/1952 1952 4 181
5 5/1/1949 1949 5 121 41 5/1/1952 1952 5 183
6 6/1/1949 1949 6 135 42 6/1/1952 1952 6 218
7 7/1/1949 1949 7 148 43 7/1/1952 1952 7 230
8 8/1/1949 1949 8 148 44 8/1/1952 1952 8 242
9 9/1/1949 1949 9 136 45 9/1/1952 1952 9 209
10 10/1/1949 1949 10 119 46 10/1/1952 1952 10 191
11 11/1/1949 1949 11 104 47 11/1/1952 1952 11 172
12 12/1/1949 1949 12 118 48 12/1/1952 1952 12 194
13 1/1/1950 1950 1 115 49 1/1/1953 1953 1 196
14 2/1/1950 1950 2 126 50 2/1/1953 1953 2 196
15 3/1/1950 1950 3 141 51 3/1/1953 1953 3 236
16 4/1/1950 1950 4 135 52 4/1/1953 1953 4 235
17 5/1/1950 1950 5 125 53 5/1/1953 1953 5 229
18 6/1/1950 1950 6 149 54 6/1/1953 1953 6 243
19 7/1/1950 1950 7 170 55 7/1/1953 1953 7 264
20 8/1/1950 1950 8 170 56 8/1/1953 1953 8 272
21 9/1/1950 1950 9 158 57 9/1/1953 1953 9 237
22 10/1/1950 1950 10 133 58 10/1/1953 1953 10 211
23 11/1/1950 1950 11 114 59 11/1/1953 1953 11 180
24 12/1/1950 1950 12 140 60 12/1/1953 1953 12 201
25 1/1/1951 1951 1 145 61 1/1/1954 1954 1 204
26 2/1/1951 1951 2 150 62 2/1/1954 1954 2 188
27 3/1/1951 1951 3 178 63 3/1/1954 1954 3 235
28 4/1/1951 1951 4 163 64 4/1/1954 1954 4 227
29 5/1/1951 1951 5 172 65 5/1/1954 1954 5 234
30 6/1/1951 1951 6 178 66 6/1/1954 1954 6 264
31 7/1/1951 1951 7 199 67 7/1/1954 1954 7 302
32 8/1/1951 1951 8 199 68 8/1/1954 1954 8 293
33 9/1/1951 1951 9 184 69 9/1/1954 1954 9 259
34 10/1/1951 1951 10 162 70 10/1/1954 1954 10 229
35 11/1/1951 1951 11 146 71 11/1/1954 1954 11 203
36 12/1/1951 1951 12 166 72 12/1/1954 1954 12 229
 Data demand (Dt) air passangers dari tahun 1949 - 1960.

Alpha 0.2
Beta 0.2

ID Date Year Month Demand (Dt) Level (St) Trend Forecast Error (Et)
(Gt) (Ft)

87.653 2.657
1 1/1/1949 1949 1 112 94.648 3.525 90.310 -21.690
2 2/1/1949 1949 2 118 102.138 4.318 98.173 -19.827
3 3/1/1949 1949 3 132 111.565 5.340 106.456 -25.544
4 4/1/1949 1949 4 129 119.324 5.823 116.904 -12.096
5 5/1/1949 1949 5 121 124.318 5.658 125.147 4.147
6 6/1/1949 1949 6 135 130.980 5.859 129.975 -5.025
7 7/1/1949 1949 7 148 139.071 6.305 136.839 -11.161
8 8/1/1949 1949 8 148 145.901 6.410 145.376 -2.624
9 9/1/1949 1949 9 136 149.049 5.758 152.311 16.311
10 10/1/1949 1949 10 119 147.645 4.325 154.806 35.806
11 11/1/1949 1949 11 104 142.376 2.406 151.970 47.970
12 12/1/1949 1949 12 118 139.426 1.335 144.783 26.783
13 1/1/1950 1950 1 115 135.609 0.305 140.761 25.761
14 2/1/1950 1950 2 126 133.931 -0.092 135.914 9.914
15 3/1/1950 1950 3 141 135.271 0.195 133.839 -7.161
16 4/1/1950 1950 4 135 135.373 0.176 135.466 0.466
17 5/1/1950 1950 5 125 133.439 -0.246 135.549 10.549
18 6/1/1950 1950 6 149 136.354 0.386 133.193 -15.807
19 7/1/1950 1950 7 170 143.393 1.717 136.741 -33.259
20 8/1/1950 1950 8 170 150.087 2.712 145.109 -24.891
21 9/1/1950 1950 9 158 153.840 2.920 152.800 -5.200
22 10/1/1950 1950 10 133 152.008 1.970 156.760 23.760
23 11/1/1950 1950 11 114 145.982 0.371 153.978 39.978
24 12/1/1950 1950 12 140 145.083 0.117 146.353 6.353
25 1/1/1951 1951 1 145 145.159 0.109 145.199 0.199
26 2/1/1951 1951 2 150 146.214 0.298 145.268 -4.732
27 3/1/1951 1951 3 178 152.810 1.557 146.512 -31.488
28 4/1/1951 1951 4 163 156.094 1.903 154.367 -8.633
29 5/1/1951 1951 5 172 160.797 2.463 157.997 -14.003
30 6/1/1951 1951 6 178 166.208 3.053 163.260 -14.740
31 7/1/1951 1951 7 199 175.209 4.242 169.261 -29.739
32 8/1/1951 1951 8 199 183.361 5.024 179.451 -19.549
33 9/1/1951 1951 9 184 187.508 4.849 188.385 4.385
34 10/1/1951 1951 10 162 186.285 3.634 192.356 30.356
35 11/1/1951 1951 11 146 181.136 1.878 189.919 43.919
36 12/1/1951 1951 12 166 179.611 1.197 183.013 17.013
37 1/1/1952 1952 1 171 178.846 0.805 180.808 9.808
38 2/1/1952 1952 2 180 179.721 0.819 179.651 -0.349
39 3/1/1952 1952 3 193 183.032 1.317 180.540 -12.460
40 4/1/1952 1952 4 181 183.679 1.183 184.349 3.349
41 5/1/1952 1952 5 183 184.490 1.109 184.862 1.862
42 6/1/1952 1952 6 218 192.079 2.405 185.599 -32.401
43 7/1/1952 1952 7 230 201.587 3.825 194.484 -35.516
44 8/1/1952 1952 8 242 212.730 5.289 205.412 -36.588
45 9/1/1952 1952 9 209 216.215 4.928 218.019 9.019
46 10/1/1952 1952 10 191 215.115 3.722 221.143 30.143
47 11/1/1952 1952 11 172 209.470 1.849 218.837 46.837
48 12/1/1952 1952 12 194 207.855 1.156 211.319 17.319
49 1/1/1953 1953 1 196 206.409 0.636 209.011 13.011
50 2/1/1953 1953 2 196 204.836 0.194 207.045 11.045
51 3/1/1953 1953 3 236 211.224 1.433 205.030 -30.970
52 4/1/1953 1953 4 235 217.125 2.327 212.657 -22.343
53 5/1/1953 1953 5 229 221.361 2.708 219.452 -9.548
54 6/1/1953 1953 6 243 227.856 3.466 224.070 -18.930
55 7/1/1953 1953 7 264 237.857 4.773 231.322 -32.678
56 8/1/1953 1953 8 272 248.504 5.948 242.630 -29.370
57 9/1/1953 1953 9 237 250.961 5.250 254.452 17.452
58 10/1/1953 1953 10 211 247.169 3.441 256.211 45.211
59 11/1/1953 1953 11 180 236.488 0.617 250.610 70.610
60 12/1/1953 1953 12 201 229.884 -0.827 237.105 36.105
61 1/1/1954 1954 1 204 224.045 -1.830 229.056 25.056
62 2/1/1954 1954 2 188 215.372 -3.198 222.215 34.215
63 3/1/1954 1954 3 235 216.739 -2.285 212.174 -22.826
64 4/1/1954 1954 4 227 216.963 -1.783 214.454 -12.546
65 5/1/1954 1954 5 234 218.944 -1.031 215.180 -18.820
66 6/1/1954 1954 6 264 227.130 0.813 217.913 -46.087
67 7/1/1954 1954 7 302 242.755 3.775 227.943 -74.057
68 8/1/1954 1954 8 293 255.824 5.634 246.530 -46.470
69 9/1/1954 1954 9 259 260.966 5.536 261.458 2.458
70 10/1/1954 1954 10 229 259.001 4.036 266.502 37.502
71 11/1/1954 1954 11 203 251.030 1.634 263.037 60.037
72 12/1/1954 1954 12 229 247.931 0.688 252.664 23.664
73 1/1/1955 1955 1 242 247.295 0.423 248.618 6.618
74 2/1/1955 1955 2 233 244.774 -0.166 247.718 14.718
75 3/1/1955 1955 3 267 249.087 0.730 244.608 -22.392
76 4/1/1955 1955 4 269 253.653 1.497 249.816 -19.184
77 5/1/1955 1955 5 270 258.120 2.091 255.150 -14.850
78 6/1/1955 1955 6 315 271.169 4.283 260.211 -54.789
79 7/1/1955 1955 7 364 293.161 7.825 275.452 -88.548
80 8/1/1955 1955 8 347 310.189 9.665 300.986 -46.014
81 9/1/1955 1955 9 312 318.283 9.351 319.854 7.854
82 10/1/1955 1955 10 274 316.907 7.206 327.634 53.634
83 11/1/1955 1955 11 237 306.690 3.721 324.113 87.113
84 12/1/1955 1955 12 278 303.929 2.425 310.411 32.411
85 1/1/1956 1956 1 284 301.883 1.531 306.354 22.354
 86 2/1/1956 1956 2 277 298.131 0.474 303.414 26.414
87 3/1/1956 1956 3 317 302.284 1.210 298.605 -18.395
88 4/1/1956 1956 4 313 305.395 1.590 303.494 -9.506
89 5/1/1956 1956 5 318 309.188 2.031 306.985 -11.015
90 6/1/1956 1956 6 374 323.775 4.542 311.219 -62.781
91 7/1/1956 1956 7 413 345.253 7.929 328.317 -84.683
92 8/1/1956 1956 8 405 363.546 10.002 353.183 -51.817
93 9/1/1956 1956 9 355 369.838 9.260 373.548 18.548
94 10/1/1956 1956 10 306 364.479 6.336 379.098 73.098
95 11/1/1956 1956 11 271 350.852 2.343 370.815 99.815
96 12/1/1956 1956 12 306 343.756 0.456 353.195 47.195
97 1/1/1957 1957 1 315 338.370 -0.713 344.212 29.212
98 2/1/1957 1957 2 301 330.325 -2.179 337.657 36.657
99 3/1/1957 1957 3 356 333.717 -1.065 328.146 -27.854
100 4/1/1957 1957 4 348 335.722 -0.451 332.652 -15.348
101 5/1/1957 1957 5 355 339.217 0.338 335.271 -19.729
102 6/1/1957 1957 6 422 356.044 3.636 339.555 -82.445
103 7/1/1957 1957 7 465 380.744 7.849 359.680 -105.320
104 8/1/1957 1957 8 467 404.274 10.985 388.593 -78.407
105 9/1/1957 1957 9 404 413.007 10.535 415.259 11.259
106 10/1/1957 1957 10 347 408.234 7.473 423.542 76.542
107 11/1/1957 1957 11 305 393.565 3.045 415.707 110.707
108 12/1/1957 1957 12 336 384.488 0.620 396.610 60.610
109 1/1/1958 1958 1 340 376.087 -1.184 385.108 45.108
110 2/1/1958 1958 2 318 363.522 -3.460 374.903 56.903
111 3/1/1958 1958 3 362 360.450 -3.383 360.062 -1.938
112 4/1/1958 1958 4 348 355.254 -3.745 357.067 9.067
113 5/1/1958 1958 5 363 353.807 -3.286 351.508 -11.492
114 6/1/1958 1958 6 435 367.417 0.094 350.521 -84.479
115 7/1/1958 1958 7 491 392.208 5.033 367.511 -123.489
116 8/1/1958 1958 8 505 418.793 9.343 397.242 -107.758
117 9/1/1958 1958 9 404 423.309 8.378 428.137 24.137
118 10/1/1958 1958 10 359 417.150 5.471 431.687 72.687
119 11/1/1958 1958 11 310 400.096 0.966 422.620 112.620
120 12/1/1958 1958 12 337 388.250 -1.597 401.062 64.062
121 1/1/1959 1959 1 360 381.322 -2.663 386.653 26.653
122 2/1/1959 1959 2 342 371.328 -4.129 378.659 36.659
123 3/1/1959 1959 3 406 374.959 -2.577 367.198 -38.802
124 4/1/1959 1959 4 396 377.105 -1.632 372.381 -23.619
125 5/1/1959 1959 5 420 384.378 0.149 375.473 -44.527
126 6/1/1959 1959 6 472 402.021 3.648 384.527 -87.473
127 7/1/1959 1959 7 548 434.135 9.341 405.669 -142.331
128 8/1/1959 1959 8 559 466.581 13.962 443.476 -115.524
129 9/1/1959 1959 9 463 477.034 13.260 480.543 17.543
130 10/1/1959 1959 10 407 473.635 9.928 490.294 83.294
131 11/1/1959 1959 11 362 459.251 5.066 483.564 121.564
132 12/1/1959 1959 12 405 452.453 2.693 464.317 59.317
133 1/1/1960 1960 1 417 447.517 1.167 455.146 38.146
134 2/1/1960 1960 2 391 437.147 -1.140 448.684 57.684
135 3/1/1960 1960 3 419 432.606 -1.820 436.007 17.007
136 4/1/1960 1960 4 461 436.828 -0.612 430.785 -30.215
137 5/1/1960 1960 5 472 443.373 0.819 436.217 -35.783
138 6/1/1960 1960 6 535 462.354 4.452 444.193 -90.807
139 7/1/1960 1960 7 622 497.845 10.660 466.806 -155.194
140 8/1/1960 1960 8 606 528.003 14.559 508.504 -97.496
141 9/1/1960 1960 9 508 535.650 13.177 542.563 34.563
142 10/1/1960 1960 10 461 531.262 9.664 548.827 87.827
143 11/1/1960 1960 11 390 510.740 3.627 540.925 150.925
144 12/1/1960 1960 12 432 497.894 0.332 514.367 82.367
960.

Mean Mean
Absolute Squared Absolute
Error (At) Error Deviation
(MSE) (MAD)

21.690 470.458 21.690

19.827 431.789 20.759
25.544 505.356 22.354
12.096 415.593 19.789
4.147 335.914 16.661
5.025 284.136 14.721
11.161 261.342 14.213
2.624 229.535 12.764
16.311 233.591 13.158
35.806 338.440 15.423
47.970 516.867 18.382
26.783 533.571 19.082
25.761 543.577 19.596
9.914 511.770 18.904
7.161 481.070 18.121
0.466 451.017 17.018
10.549 431.032 16.637
15.807 420.967 16.591
33.259 457.031 17.468
24.891 465.157 17.840
5.200 444.294 17.238
23.760 449.760 17.534
39.978 499.694 18.510
6.353 480.555 18.003
0.199 461.335 17.291
4.732 444.452 16.808
31.488 464.712 17.352
8.633 450.777 17.041
14.003 441.994 16.936
14.740 434.503 16.863
29.739 449.017 17.278
19.549 446.928 17.349
4.385 433.967 16.956
30.356 448.307 17.350
43.919 490.610 18.109
17.013 485.022 18.079
9.808 474.513 17.855
0.349 462.029 17.395
12.460 454.163 17.268
3.349 443.090 16.920
1.862 432.367 16.553
32.401 447.069 16.930
35.516 466.008 17.362
36.588 485.840 17.799
9.019 476.852 17.604
30.143 486.238 17.877
46.837 522.567 18.493
17.319 517.929 18.469
13.011 510.814 18.357
11.045 503.037 18.211
30.970 511.981 18.461
22.343 511.735 18.536
9.548 503.800 18.366
18.930 501.107 18.377
32.678 511.411 18.637
29.370 517.682 18.828
17.452 513.944 18.804
45.211 540.324 19.259
70.610 615.670 20.130
36.105 627.135 20.396
25.056 627.146 20.472
34.215 635.913 20.694
22.826 634.089 20.728
12.546 626.641 20.600
18.820 622.450 20.573
46.087 645.201 20.959
74.057 717.427 21.752
46.470 738.634 22.115
2.458 728.017 21.830
37.502 737.708 22.054
60.037 778.084 22.589
23.664 775.055 22.604
6.618 765.038 22.385
14.718 757.627 22.282
22.392 754.210 22.283
19.184 749.129 22.242
14.850 742.264 22.146
54.789 771.232 22.565
88.548 860.721 23.400
46.014 876.428 23.683
7.854 866.369 23.487
53.634 890.884 23.855
87.113 971.581 24.617
32.411 972.520 24.710
22.354 966.957 24.682
 26.414 963.826 24.702
18.395 956.637 24.630
9.506 946.793 24.458
11.015 937.518 24.307
62.781 970.896 24.734
84.683 1039.032 25.393
51.817 1056.923 25.680
18.548 1049.258 25.604
73.098 1094.940 26.109
99.815 1188.288 26.885
47.195 1199.112 27.096
29.212 1195.547 27.118
36.657 1197.059 27.215
27.854 1192.804 27.222
15.348 1183.232 27.103
19.729 1175.370 27.030
82.445 1230.487 27.573
105.320 1326.233 28.328
78.407 1372.594 28.810
11.259 1360.729 28.643
76.542 1403.162 29.095
110.707 1504.590 29.857
60.610 1524.673 30.142
45.108 1529.353 30.279
56.903 1544.886 30.521
1.938 1531.002 30.264
9.067 1518.066 30.075
11.492 1505.800 29.910
84.479 1555.194 30.389
123.489 1674.276 31.198
107.758 1759.945 31.858
24.137 1749.882 31.792
72.687 1779.828 32.139
112.620 1871.454 32.815
64.062 1890.058 33.076
26.653 1880.309 33.023
36.659 1875.912 33.052
38.802 1872.901 33.099
23.619 1862.296 33.023
44.527 1863.259 33.115
87.473 1909.198 33.546
142.331 2053.678 34.403
115.524 2141.897 35.036
17.543 2127.679 34.901
83.294 2164.681 35.273
121.564 2260.964 35.932
59.317 2270.490 36.109
 38.146 2264.360 36.124
57.684 2272.293 36.285
17.007 2257.604 36.142
30.215 2247.717 36.099
35.783 2240.657 36.097
90.807 2284.173 36.493
155.194 2441.015 37.347
97.496 2491.475 37.777
34.563 2482.277 37.754
87.827 2519.118 38.106
150.925 2660.792 38.895
82.367 2689.427 39.197
Alpha 0.2
Beta 0.2

Demand
ID (variabel (Dt) Trend Forecast Absolute
Date Year Month Level (St) Error (Et)
tetap) (Variabel (Gt) (Ft) Error (At)
Bebas)

87.653 2.657
1 1/1/1949 1949 1 112 94.648 3.525 90.310 -21.690 21.690
2 2/1/1949 1949 2 118 102.138 4.318 98.173 -19.827 19.827
3 3/1/1949 1949 3 132 111.565 5.340 106.456 -25.544 25.544
4 4/1/1949 1949 4 129 119.324 5.823 116.904 -12.096 12.096
5 5/1/1949 1949 5 121 124.318 5.658 125.147 4.147 4.147
6 6/1/1949 1949 6 135 130.980 5.859 129.975 -5.025 5.025
7 7/1/1949 1949 7 148 139.071 6.305 136.839 -11.161 11.161
8 8/1/1949 1949 8 148 145.901 6.410 145.376 -2.624 2.624
9 9/1/1949 1949 9 136 149.049 5.758 152.311 16.311 16.311
10 10/1/1949 1949 10 119 147.645 4.325 154.806 35.806 35.806
11 11/1/1949 1949 11 104 142.376 2.406 151.970 47.970 47.970
12 12/1/1949 1949 12 118 139.426 1.335 144.783 26.783 26.783
13 1/1/1950 1950 1 115 135.609 0.305 140.761 25.761 25.761
14 2/1/1950 1950 2 126 133.931 -0.092 135.914 9.914 9.914
15 3/1/1950 1950 3 141 135.271 0.195 133.839 -7.161 7.161
16 4/1/1950 1950 4 135 135.373 0.176 135.466 0.466 0.466
17 5/1/1950 1950 5 125 133.439 -0.246 135.549 10.549 10.549
18 6/1/1950 1950 6 149 136.354 0.386 133.193 -15.807 15.807
19 7/1/1950 1950 7 170 143.393 1.717 136.741 -33.259 33.259
20 8/1/1950 1950 8 170 150.087 2.712 145.109 -24.891 24.891
21 9/1/1950 1950 9 158 153.840 2.920 152.800 -5.200 5.200
22 10/1/1950 1950 10 133 152.008 1.970 156.760 23.760 23.760
23 11/1/1950 1950 11 114 145.982 0.371 153.978 39.978 39.978
24 12/1/1950 1950 12 140 145.083 0.117 146.353 6.353 6.353
25 1/1/1951 1951 1 145 145.159 0.109 145.199 0.199 0.199
26 2/1/1951 1951 2 150 146.214 0.298 145.268 -4.732 4.732
27 3/1/1951 1951 3 178 152.810 1.557 146.512 -31.488 31.488
28 4/1/1951 1951 4 163 156.094 1.903 154.367 -8.633 8.633
29 5/1/1951 1951 5 172 160.797 2.463 157.997 -14.003 14.003
30 6/1/1951 1951 6 178 166.208 3.053 163.260 -14.740 14.740
31 7/1/1951 1951 7 199 175.209 4.242 169.261 -29.739 29.739
32 8/1/1951 1951 8 199 183.361 5.024 179.451 -19.549 19.549
33 9/1/1951 1951 9 184 187.508 4.849 188.385 4.385 4.385
34 10/1/1951 1951 10 162 186.285 3.634 192.356 30.356 30.356
35 11/1/1951 1951 11 146 181.136 1.878 189.919 43.919 43.919
36 12/1/1951 1951 12 166 179.611 1.197 183.013 17.013 17.013
37 1/1/1952 1952 1 171 178.846 0.805 180.808 9.808 9.808
38 2/1/1952 1952 2 180 179.721 0.819 179.651 -0.349 0.349
39 3/1/1952 1952 3 193 183.032 1.317 180.540 -12.460 12.460
40 4/1/1952 1952 4 181 183.679 1.183 184.349 3.349 3.349
41 5/1/1952 1952 5 183 184.490 1.109 184.862 1.862 1.862
42 6/1/1952 1952 6 218 192.079 2.405 185.599 -32.401 32.401
43 7/1/1952 1952 7 230 201.587 3.825 194.484 -35.516 35.516
44 8/1/1952 1952 8 242 212.730 5.289 205.412 -36.588 36.588
45 9/1/1952 1952 9 209 216.215 4.928 218.019 9.019 9.019
46 10/1/1952 1952 10 191 215.115 3.722 221.143 30.143 30.143
47 11/1/1952 1952 11 172 209.470 1.849 218.837 46.837 46.837
48 12/1/1952 1952 12 194 207.855 1.156 211.319 17.319 17.319
49 1/1/1953 1953 1 196 206.409 0.636 209.011 13.011 13.011
50 2/1/1953 1953 2 196 204.836 0.194 207.045 11.045 11.045
51 3/1/1953 1953 3 236 211.224 1.433 205.030 -30.970 30.970
52 4/1/1953 1953 4 235 217.125 2.327 212.657 -22.343 22.343
53 5/1/1953 1953 5 229 221.361 2.708 219.452 -9.548 9.548
54 6/1/1953 1953 6 243 227.856 3.466 224.070 -18.930 18.930
55 7/1/1953 1953 7 264 237.857 4.773 231.322 -32.678 32.678
56 8/1/1953 1953 8 272 248.504 5.948 242.630 -29.370 29.370
57 9/1/1953 1953 9 237 250.961 5.250 254.452 17.452 17.452
58 10/1/1953 1953 10 211 247.169 3.441 256.211 45.211 45.211
59 11/1/1953 1953 11 180 236.488 0.617 250.610 70.610 70.610
60 12/1/1953 1953 12 201 229.884 -0.827 237.105 36.105 36.105
61 1/1/1954 1954 1 204 224.045 -1.830 229.056 25.056 25.056
62 2/1/1954 1954 2 188 215.372 -3.198 222.215 34.215 34.215
63 3/1/1954 1954 3 235 216.739 -2.285 212.174 -22.826 22.826
64 4/1/1954 1954 4 227 216.963 -1.783 214.454 -12.546 12.546
65 5/1/1954 1954 5 234 218.944 -1.031 215.180 -18.820 18.820
66 6/1/1954 1954 6 264 227.130 0.813 217.913 -46.087 46.087
67 7/1/1954 1954 7 302 242.755 3.775 227.943 -74.057 74.057
68 8/1/1954 1954 8 293 255.824 5.634 246.530 -46.470 46.470
69 9/1/1954 1954 9 259 260.966 5.536 261.458 2.458 2.458
70 10/1/1954 1954 10 229 259.001 4.036 266.502 37.502 37.502
71 11/1/1954 1954 11 203 251.030 1.634 263.037 60.037 60.037
72 12/1/1954 1954 12 229 247.931 0.688 252.664 23.664 23.664
73 1/1/1955 1955 1 242 247.295 0.423 248.618 6.618 6.618
74 2/1/1955 1955 2 233 244.774 -0.166 247.718 14.718 14.718
75 3/1/1955 1955 3 267 249.087 0.730 244.608 -22.392 22.392
76 4/1/1955 1955 4 269 253.653 1.497 249.816 -19.184 19.184
77 5/1/1955 1955 5 270 258.120 2.091 255.150 -14.850 14.850
 78 6/1/1955 1955 6 315 271.169 4.283 260.211 -54.789 54.789
79 7/1/1955 1955 7 364 293.161 7.825 275.452 -88.548 88.548
80 8/1/1955 1955 8 347 310.189 9.665 300.986 -46.014 46.014
81 9/1/1955 1955 9 312 318.283 9.351 319.854 7.854 7.854
82 10/1/1955 1955 10 274 316.907 7.206 327.634 53.634 53.634
83 11/1/1955 1955 11 237 306.690 3.721 324.113 87.113 87.113
84 12/1/1955 1955 12 278 303.929 2.425 310.411 32.411 32.411
85 1/1/1956 1956 1 284 301.883 1.531 306.354 22.354 22.354
86 2/1/1956 1956 2 277 298.131 0.474 303.414 26.414 26.414
87 3/1/1956 1956 3 317 302.284 1.210 298.605 -18.395 18.395
88 4/1/1956 1956 4 313 305.395 1.590 303.494 -9.506 9.506
89 5/1/1956 1956 5 318 309.188 2.031 306.985 -11.015 11.015
90 6/1/1956 1956 6 374 323.775 4.542 311.219 -62.781 62.781
91 7/1/1956 1956 7 413 345.253 7.929 328.317 -84.683 84.683
92 8/1/1956 1956 8 405 363.546 10.002 353.183 -51.817 51.817
93 9/1/1956 1956 9 355 369.838 9.260 373.548 18.548 18.548
94 10/1/1956 1956 10 306 364.479 6.336 379.098 73.098 73.098
95 11/1/1956 1956 11 271 350.852 2.343 370.815 99.815 99.815
96 12/1/1956 1956 12 306 343.756 0.456 353.195 47.195 47.195
97 1/1/1957 1957 1 315 338.370 -0.713 344.212 29.212 29.212
98 2/1/1957 1957 2 301 330.325 -2.179 337.657 36.657 36.657
99 3/1/1957 1957 3 356 333.717 -1.065 328.146 -27.854 27.854
100 4/1/1957 1957 4 348 335.722 -0.451 332.652 -15.348 15.348
101 5/1/1957 1957 5 355 339.217 0.338 335.271 -19.729 19.729
102 6/1/1957 1957 6 422 356.044 3.636 339.555 -82.445 82.445
103 7/1/1957 1957 7 465 380.744 7.849 359.680 -105.320 105.320
104 8/1/1957 1957 8 467 404.274 10.985 388.593 -78.407 78.407
105 9/1/1957 1957 9 404 413.007 10.535 415.259 11.259 11.259
106 10/1/1957 1957 10 347 408.234 7.473 423.542 76.542 76.542
107 11/1/1957 1957 11 305 393.565 3.045 415.707 110.707 110.707
108 12/1/1957 1957 12 336 384.488 0.620 396.610 60.610 60.610
109 1/1/1958 1958 1 340 376.087 -1.184 385.108 45.108 45.108
110 2/1/1958 1958 2 318 363.522 -3.460 374.903 56.903 56.903
111 3/1/1958 1958 3 362 360.450 -3.383 360.062 -1.938 1.938
112 4/1/1958 1958 4 348 355.254 -3.745 357.067 9.067 9.067
113 5/1/1958 1958 5 363 353.807 -3.286 351.508 -11.492 11.492
114 6/1/1958 1958 6 435 367.417 0.094 350.521 -84.479 84.479
115 7/1/1958 1958 7 491 392.208 5.033 367.511 -123.489 123.489
116 8/1/1958 1958 8 505 418.793 9.343 397.242 -107.758 107.758
117 9/1/1958 1958 9 404 423.309 8.378 428.137 24.137 24.137
118 10/1/1958 1958 10 359 417.150 5.471 431.687 72.687 72.687
119 11/1/1958 1958 11 310 400.096 0.966 422.620 112.620 112.620
120 12/1/1958 1958 12 337 388.250 -1.597 401.062 64.062 64.062
121 1/1/1959 1959 1 360 381.322 -2.663 386.653 26.653 26.653
122 2/1/1959 1959 2 342 371.328 -4.129 378.659 36.659 36.659
123 3/1/1959 1959 3 406 374.959 -2.577 367.198 -38.802 38.802
124 4/1/1959 1959 4 396 377.105 -1.632 372.381 -23.619 23.619
125 5/1/1959 1959 5 420 384.378 0.149 375.473 -44.527 44.527
126 6/1/1959 1959 6 472 402.021 3.648 384.527 -87.473 87.473
127 7/1/1959 1959 7 548 434.135 9.341 405.669 -142.331 142.331
128 8/1/1959 1959 8 559 466.581 13.962 443.476 -115.524 115.524
129 9/1/1959 1959 9 463 477.034 13.260 480.543 17.543 17.543
130 10/1/1959 1959 10 407 473.635 9.928 490.294 83.294 83.294
131 11/1/1959 1959 11 362 459.251 5.066 483.564 121.564 121.564
132 12/1/1959 1959 12 405 452.453 2.693 464.317 59.317 59.317
133 1/1/1960 1960 1 417 447.517 1.167 455.146 38.146 38.146
134 2/1/1960 1960 2 391 437.147 -1.140 448.684 57.684 57.684
135 3/1/1960 1960 3 419 432.606 -1.820 436.007 17.007 17.007
136 4/1/1960 1960 4 461 436.828 -0.612 430.785 -30.215 30.215
137 5/1/1960 1960 5 472 443.373 0.819 436.217 -35.783 35.783
138 6/1/1960 1960 6 535 462.354 4.452 444.193 -90.807 90.807
139 7/1/1960 1960 7 622 497.845 10.660 466.806 -155.194 155.194
140 8/1/1960 1960 8 606 528.003 14.559 508.504 -97.496 97.496
141 9/1/1960 1960 9 508 535.650 13.177 542.563 34.563 34.563
142 10/1/1960 1960 10 461 531.262 9.664 548.827 87.827 87.827
143 11/1/1960 1960 11 390 510.740 3.627 540.925 150.925 150.925
144 12/1/1960 1960 12 432 497.894 0.332 514.367 82.367 82.367
 Mean Mean
Squared Absolute
Error Deviation
(MSE) (MAD)

470.458 21.690
431.789 20.759
505.356 22.354
415.593 19.789
335.914 16.661
284.136 14.721
261.342 14.213
229.535 12.764
233.591 13.158
338.440 15.423
516.867 18.382
533.571 19.082
543.577 19.596
511.770 18.904
481.070 18.121
451.017 17.018
431.032 16.637
420.967 16.591
457.031 17.468
465.157 17.840
444.294 17.238
449.760 17.534
499.694 18.510
480.555 18.003
461.335 17.291
444.452 16.808
464.712 17.352
450.777 17.041
441.994 16.936
434.503 16.863
449.017 17.278
446.928 17.349
433.967 16.956
448.307 17.350
490.610 18.109
485.022 18.079
474.513 17.855
462.029 17.395
454.163 17.268
443.090 16.920
432.367 16.553
447.069 16.930
466.008 17.362
485.840 17.799
476.852 17.604
486.238 17.877
522.567 18.493
517.929 18.469
510.814 18.357
503.037 18.211
511.981 18.461
511.735 18.536
503.800 18.366
501.107 18.377
511.411 18.637
517.682 18.828
513.944 18.804
540.324 19.259
615.670 20.130
627.135 20.396
627.146 20.472
635.913 20.694
634.089 20.728
626.641 20.600
622.450 20.573
645.201 20.959
717.427 21.752
738.634 22.115
728.017 21.830
737.708 22.054
778.084 22.589
775.055 22.604
765.038 22.385
757.627 22.282
754.210 22.283
749.129 22.242
742.264 22.146
 771.232 22.565
860.721 23.400
876.428 23.683
866.369 23.487
890.884 23.855
971.581 24.617
972.520 24.710
966.957 24.682
963.826 24.702
956.637 24.630
946.793 24.458
937.518 24.307
970.896 24.734
1039.032 25.393
1056.923 25.680
1049.258 25.604
1094.940 26.109
1188.288 26.885
1199.112 27.096
1195.547 27.118
1197.059 27.215
1192.804 27.222
1183.232 27.103
1175.370 27.030
1230.487 27.573
1326.233 28.328
1372.594 28.810
1360.729 28.643
1403.162 29.095
1504.590 29.857
1524.673 30.142
1529.353 30.279
1544.886 30.521
1531.002 30.264
1518.066 30.075
1505.800 29.910
1555.194 30.389
1674.276 31.198
1759.945 31.858
1749.882 31.792
1779.828 32.139
1871.454 32.815
1890.058 33.076
1880.309 33.023
1875.912 33.052
1872.901 33.099
1862.296 33.023
1863.259 33.115
1909.198 33.546
2053.678 34.403
2141.897 35.036
2127.679 34.901
2164.681 35.273
2260.964 35.932
2270.490 36.109
2264.360 36.124
2272.293 36.285
2257.604 36.142
2247.717 36.099
2240.657 36.097
2284.173 36.493
2441.015 37.347
2491.475 37.777
2482.277 37.754
2519.118 38.106
2660.792 38.895
2689.427 39.197