Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Periode PDB (miliar RP) Single (a) Double(b) Triple(c) (a) (b)
Q1 1990 49,958.40 49958.4 0.00
Q2 1990 51,681.60 49958.4 1,723.20
Q3 1990 54,864.60 50303.04 14453.5426 4,561.56 40,411.06
Q4 1990 54,361.60 51215.352 12575.5028 3,146.25 41,786.10
Q1 1991 58,937.20 51844.602 15697.1268 7,092.60 43,240.07
Q2 1991 61,199.50 53263.121 22287.0758 57709.879959 7,936.38 38,912.42
Q3 1991 65,067.00 54850.397 31754.929 65036.495407 10,216.60 33,312.07
Q4 1991 64,764.90 56893.718 41909.5892 67452.343556 7,871.18 22,855.31
Q1 1992 66,641.00 58467.954 52387.0502 64738.013408 8,173.05 14,253.95
Q2 1992 68,764.60 60102.563 62503.943 69800.393489 8,662.04 6,260.66
Q3 1992 73,472.90 61834.971 72416.6338 76425.595724 11,637.93 1,056.27
Q4 1992 73,516.40 64162.556 80443.4678 77521.3016 9,353.84 -6,927.07
Q1 1993 77,581.60 66033.325 87449.0255 73802.254237 11,548.27 -9,867.43
Q2 1993 80,430.70 68342.98 93061.8256 78933.214276 12,087.72 -12,631.13
Q3 1993 85,523.70 70760.524 97967.6157 86334.404657 14,763.18 -12,443.92
Q4 1993 86,239.80 73713.159 101097.243 87692.871689 12,526.64 -14,857.44
Q1 1994 87,979.00 76218.487 102899.325 84712.793096 11,760.51 -14,920.32
Q2 1994 92,988.40 78570.59 104550 90006.344393 14,417.81 -11,561.60
Q3 1994 99,809.70 81454.152 106855.57 98455.990403 18,355.55 -7,045.87
Q4 1994 101,442.50 85125.262 108593.543 100534.07415 16,317.24 -7,151.04
Q1 1995 106,543.20 88388.709 110840.034 98339.318217 18,154.49 -4,296.83
Q2 1995 111,668.10 92019.607 113728.453 105993.67626 19,648.49 -2,060.35
Q3 1995 117,120.00 95949.306 117400.891 117038.17614 21,170.69 -280.89
Q4 1995 119,182.80 100183.44 120893.954 119807.80779 18,999.36 -1,711.15
Q1 1996 122,529.50 103983.32 124488.589 118025.10471 18,546.18 -1,959.09
Q2 1996 128,845.50 107692.55 128976.049 125870.68783 21,152.95 -130.55
Q3 1996 136,939.80 111923.14 134821.978 137388.8686 25,016.66 2,117.82
Q4 1996 144,253.20 116926.47 141715.898 140233.81105 27,326.73 2,537.30
Q1 1997 145,800.90 122391.82 147867.375 139683.81443 23,409.08 -2,066.47
Q2 1997 149,405.70 127073.64 153632.582 149140.50509 22,332.06 -4,226.88
Q3 1997 163,236.70 131540 161779.277 161663.68709 31,696.65 1,457.42
Q4 1997 169,252.10 137879.38 170097.539 165945.9278 31,372.72 -845.44
Q1 1998 211,574.90 144153.92 188534.898 165181.93709 67,420.98 23,040.00
Q2 1998 222,809.00 157638.12 208273.533 186886.54346 65,170.88 14,535.47
Q3 1998 264,263.40 170672.29 236834.51 215976.93652 93,591.11 27,428.89
Q4 1998 257,106.10 189390.52 259873.559 239946.38808 67,715.58 -2,767.46
Q1 1999 275,226.50 202933.63 283157.114 254991.29955 72,292.87 -7,930.61
Q2 1999 271,595.50 217392.21 300132.828 280863.52785 54,203.29 -28,537.33
Q3 1999 277,558.00 228232.86 313099.914 311869.46588 49,325.14 -35,541.91
Q4 1999 275,351.60 238097.89 320012.437 314705.70709 37,253.71 -44,660.84
Q1 2000 293,416.08 245548.63 327027.643 312324.78795 47,867.45 -33,611.56
Q2 2000 305,832.17 255122.12 333427.388 320050.33293 50,710.05 -27,595.22
Q3 2000 327,088.15 265264.13 342291.241 340901.85415 61,824.02 -15,203.09
Q4 2000 338,582.36 277628.94 351384.455 339609.42036 60,953.42 -12,802.09
Q1 2001 352,265.61 289819.62 361466.168 342033.73558 62,445.99 -9,200.56
Q2 2001 372,088.13 302308.82 374345.8 354534.72348 69,779.31 -2,257.67
Q3 2001 375,471.81 316264.68 385416.322 384598.83713 59,207.13 -9,944.51
Q4 2001 367,829.28 328106.11 391337.271 385775.52676 39,723.17 -23,507.99
Q1 2002 388,571.57 336050.74 400001.231 385092.86101 52,520.83 -11,429.66
Q2 2002 396,873.62 346554.91 408342.601 396486.92636 50,318.71 -11,468.98
Q3 2002 413,534.15 356618.65 418763.127 420392.43925 56,915.50 -5,228.98
Q4 2002 411,585.60 368001.75 426135.635 418807.92994 43,583.85 -14,550.03
Q1 2003 442,734.64 376718.52 439591.37 420729.64764 66,016.12 3,143.27
Q2 2003 438,257.31 389921.74 449353.767 436346.66769 48,335.57 -11,096.46
Q3 2003 454,168.69 399588.86 460731.155 462148.54676 54,579.83 -6,562.46
Q4 2003 451530.29 410504.82 468569.316 460080.43159 41,025.47 -17,039.03
JUMLAH 1,843,757.58 -129,571.84
BIAS 32,924.24 -2,399.48
MSE
MAD
MAPE
RMSE
Metode terbaik berdasarkan MAD, MSE, RMSE, d
Smoothing (Winters-Holt). Karena MAD,MSE, RM
peramalannya adalah yang terbaik diantara 2 me
Error Kuadrat Error Absolut Error
(c) (a) (b) (c) (a) (b)
0.00 0
2,969,418.24 1723.2
20,807,829.63 1,633,053,563.42 4561.56 40411.05744
9,898,876.48 1,746,077,918.94 3146.248 41786.097197
50,304,952.06 1,869,703,932.63 7092.5984 43240.073226
3,489.62 62,986,107.19 1,514,176,756.51 12,177,448.03 7936.37872 38912.424192
30.50 104,378,976.37 1,109,694,076.26 930.53 10216.602976 33312.071029
-2,687.44 61,955,512.07 522,365,232.53 7,222,352.87 7871.1823808 22855.310817
1,902.99 66,798,679.36 203,175,084.37 3,621,357.97 8173.0459046 14253.949781
-1,035.79 75,030,880.20 39,195,825.70 1,072,868.15 8662.0367237 6260.6569704
-2,952.70 135,441,400.23 1,115,698.21 8,718,412.04 11637.929379 1056.2661641
-4,004.90 87,494,388.28 47,984,267.95 16,039,236.83 9353.8435032 6927.0677741
3,779.35 133,362,650.91 97,366,086.05 14,283,454.40 11548.274803 9867.4255027
1,497.49 146,112,970.98 159,545,335.07 2,242,463.49 12087.719842 12631.125645
-810.70 217,951,361.88 154,851,038.15 657,242.04 14763.175874 12443.915708
-1,453.07 156,916,727.20 220,743,597.68 2,111,417.33 12526.640699 14857.442501
3,266.21 138,309,655.65 222,616,084.26 10,668,107.54 11760.512559 14920.324536
2,982.06 207,873,246.56 133,670,506.71 8,892,655.64 14417.810047 11561.596201
1,353.71 336,926,143.77 49,644,281.75 1,832,529.67 18355.548038 7045.8698365
908.43 266,252,269.99 51,137,418.25 825,237.52 16317.23843 7151.0431582
8,203.88 329,585,534.18 18,462,785.54 67,303,676.31 18154.490744 4296.8343629
5,674.42 386,063,261.27 4,245,052.74 32,199,084.84 19648.492595 2060.3525776
81.82 448,198,287.67 78,899.72 6,695.14 21170.694076 280.89094323
-625.01 360,975,500.34 2,928,049.24 390,634.74 18999.355261 1711.1543602
4,504.40 343,960,948.71 3,838,028.71 20,289,576.93 18546.184209 1959.088745
2,974.81 447,447,182.31 17,043.08 8,849,507.46 21152.947367 130.54915325
-449.07 625,833,172.17 4,485,171.94 201,662.61 25016.657894 2117.8224524
4,019.39 746,749,971.09 6,437,901.14 16,155,487.53 27326.726315 2537.3019408
6,117.09 547,985,075.70 4,270,317.37 37,418,735.87 23409.081052 2066.4746238
265.19 498,721,120.09 17,866,530.64 70,328.34 22332.064842 4226.8819056
1,573.01 1,004,677,739.97 2,124,081.28 2,474,369.60 31696.651873 1457.4228215
3,306.17 984,247,654.23 714,767.48 10,930,774.62 31372.721499 845.43922263
46,392.96 4,545,588,166.45 530,841,705.06 2,152,307,007.16 67420.977199 23040.00228
35,922.46 4,247,243,829.26 211,279,809.62 1,290,422,883.83 65170.881759 14535.4673
48,286.46 8,759,295,011.36 752,344,002.86 2,331,582,554.93 93591.105407 27428.889931
17,159.71 4,585,400,360.59 7,658,830.19 294,455,713.02 67715.584326 2767.4591578
20,235.20 5,226,258,685.68 62,894,633.60 409,463,337.06 72292.867461 7930.6136965
-9,268.03 2,937,997,077.04 814,379,102.60 85,896,340.18 54203.293969 28537.328232
-34,311.47 2,432,968,960.01 1,263,227,622.44 1,177,276,690.79 49325.135175 35541.913601
-39,354.11 1,387,838,770.17 1,994,590,344.47 1,548,745,744.47 37253.70814 44660.836809
-18,908.71 2,291,292,435.57 1,129,737,155.89 357,539,236.27 47867.446512 33611.56283
-14,218.16 2,571,508,887.99 761,496,046.59 202,156,157.00 50710.04721 27595.217821
-13,813.70 3,822,209,172.93 231,133,969.50 190,818,422.28 61824.017768 15203.090788
-1,027.06 3,715,319,923.42 163,893,628.66 1,054,852.99 60953.424214 12802.094698
10,231.87 3,899,501,588.56 84,650,272.13 104,691,254.10 62445.989371 9200.5582508
17,553.41 4,869,152,313.00 5,097,073.98 308,122,080.42 69779.311497 2257.6700327
-9,127.03 3,505,484,147.82 98,893,324.00 83,302,624.28 59207.129198 9944.5122557
-17,946.25 1,577,930,501.64 552,625,624.57 322,067,772.75 39723.173358 23507.990654
3,478.71 2,758,437,445.91 130,637,157.88 12,101,416.22 52520.828686 11429.66132
386.69 2,531,972,872.86 131,537,523.96 149,531.97 50318.712949 11468.980947
-6,858.29 3,239,374,181.15 27,342,196.00 47,036,131.40 56915.500359 5228.9765729
-7,222.33 1,899,552,005.88 211,703,516.99 52,162,049.71 43583.850287 14550.034948
22,004.99 4,358,128,130.22 9,880,145.97 484,219,688.88 66016.12023 3143.2699479
1,910.64 2,336,326,958.33 123,131,365.30 3,650,554.02 48335.566184 11096.457331
-7,979.86 2,978,958,164.54 43,065,946.46 63,678,113.93 54579.832947 6562.4649681
-8,550.14 1,683,088,889.87 290,328,402.94 73,104,921.19 41025.466358 17039.02588
76,889.83 91,167,045,975.04 19,473,954,734.98 11,882,661,326.89 1,843,757.58 762,268.01
1,507.64
1627982963.83996 360628791.388563 232993359.350824
32924.242582 14116.074279
9452.8913783
15.820959477 12.384301086 4.2442910766
Produk Domestik Bruto alpha 0.2
Periode PDB (miliar RP) Forecast
Q1 1990 49958.4 49958.4
Q2 1990 51681.6 49958.4
Q3 1990 54864.6 50303.04
Q4 1990 54361.6 51215.35
Q1 1991 58937.2 51844.6
Q2 1991 61199.5 53263.12
Q3 1991 65067 54850.4
Q4 1991 64764.9 56893.72
Q1 1992 66641 58467.95
Q2 1992 68764.6 60102.56
Q3 1992 73472.9 61834.97
Q4 1992 73516.4 64162.56
Q1 1993 77581.6 66033.33
Q2 1993 80430.7 68342.98
Q3 1993 85523.7 70760.52
Q4 1993 86239.8 73713.16
Q1 1994 87979 76218.49
Q2 1994 92988.4 78570.59
Q3 1994 99809.7 81454.15
Q4 1994 101442.5 85125.26
Q1 1995 106543.2 88388.71
Q2 1995 111668.1 92019.61
Q3 1995 117120 95949.31
Q4 1995 119182.8 100183.4
Q1 1996 122529.5 103983.3
Q2 1996 128845.5 107692.6
Q3 1996 136939.8 111923.1
Q4 1996 144253.2 116926.5
Q1 1997 145800.9 122391.8
Q2 1997 149405.7 127073.6
Q3 1997 163236.7 131540
Q4 1997 169252.1 137879.4
Q1 1998 211574.9 144153.9
Q2 1998 222809 157638.1
Q3 1998 264263.4 170672.3
Q4 1998 257106.1 189390.5
Q1 1999 275226.5 202933.6
Q2 1999 271595.5 217392.2
Q3 1999 277558 228232.9
Q4 1999 275351.6 238097.9
Q1 2000 293416.08 245548.6
Q2 2000 305832.17 255122.1
Q3 2000 327088.15 265264.1
Q4 2000 338582.36 277628.9
Q1 2001 352265.61 289819.6
Q2 2001 372088.13 302308.8
Q3 2001 375471.81 316264.7
Q4 2001 367829.28 328106.1
Q1 2002 388571.57 336050.7
Q2 2002 396873.62 346554.9
Q3 2002 413534.15 356618.6
Q4 2002 411585.6 368001.7
Q1 2003 442734.64 376718.5
Q2 2003 438257.31 389921.7
Q3 2003 454168.69 399588.9
Q4 2003 451530.29 410504.8
Produk Domestik Bruto
Periode PDB (miliar RP) t St Tt Forecast alfa 0.2
Q1 1990 49958.4 1 49958.4 -17310.9 beta 0.4
Q2 1990 51681.6 2 36454.32 -15788.2
Q3 1990 54864.6 3 27505.84 -13052.3 14453.54
Q4 1990 54361.6 4 22435.15 -9859.65 12575.5
Q1 1991 58937.2 5 21847.84 -6150.72 15697.13
Q2 1991 61199.5 6 24797.6 -2510.53 22287.08
Q3 1991 65067 7 30843.06 911.8683 31754.93 500000
Q4 1991 64764.9 8 38356.92 3552.666 41909.59 450000
Q1 1992 66641 9 46855.87 5531.179 52387.05 400000 f(x) = 7938.
Q2 1992 68764.6 10 55662.56 6841.383 62503.94 350000
Q3 1992 73472.9 11 64697.73 7718.899 72416.63 300000
Q4 1992 73516.4 12 72636.59 7806.881 80443.47 250000
Q1 1993 77581.6 13 79871.09 7577.931 87449 200000
Q2 1993 80430.7 14 86045.36 7016.465 93061.83 150000
Q3 1993 85523.7 15 91554.2 6413.415 97967.62 100000
Q4 1993 86239.8 16 95622.05 5475.19 101097 50000