Año Trimestre Demanda

1 28
2 16
1
3 73
4 61
1 57
2 43
2
3 44
4 68
1 68
2 73
3
3 84
4 93
1 128
2 100
4
3 130
4 148
1 147
2 142
5
3 134
4 159
1 181
2 168
6
3 168
4 188
1 186
2 189
7
3 184
4 224
1 207
2 223
8
3 210
4 245
Año Trimestre Demanda
1 28 Deman
2 16 300
1
3 73
4 61 250
1 57
2 43 200
2
3 44
4 68

Valor
150
1 68
2 73 100
3
3 84
4 93
50
1 128
2 100
4 0
3 130 0 5 10 15
4 148 Trimestres (a
1 147
2 142
5
3 134 6 7
4 159 Pronost.6 Error Error^2 MAPE Pronost.7 Error
1 181 143.3 37.7 1418.8 20.8% 137.1 43.9
2 168 151.8 16.2 261.4 9.6% 148.7 19.3
6
3 168 155.2 12.8 164.7 7.6% 154.1 13.9
4 188 158.7 29.3 860.4 15.6% 157.0 31.0
1 186 166.3 19.7 386.8 10.6% 162.9 23.1
2 189 175.0 14.0 196.0 7.4% 169.1 19.9
7
3 184 180.0 4.0 16.0 2.2% 177.0 7.0
4 224 180.5 43.5 1892.3 19.4% 180.6 43.4
1 207 189.8 17.2 294.7 8.3% 186.7 20.3
2 223 196.3 26.7 711.1 12.0% 192.3 30.7
8
3 210 202.2 7.8 61.4 3.7% 200.1 9.9
4 245 206.2 38.8 1508.0 15.9% 203.3 41.7
215.5 211.7
225.7 219.7
9
229.2 228.4
235.5 231.4
MAD ECM MAPE MAD
16.7 485.7188 8.3% 25.3
 Demanda Dema
250

230

210

190

Valor
170

150

130

110
0 2 4
15 20 25 30 35
Trimestres (año 0 al 8) Demanda de 0 a 8 años

N
7 8 9 10
Error^2 MAPE Pronost.8 Error Error^2 MAPE Pronost.9 Error Error^2 MAPE Pronost.10
1923.4 24.2% 136.0 45.0 2025.0 24.9% 131.2 49.8 2477.8 27.5% 126.5
371.9 11.5% 142.6 25.4 643.9 15.1% 141.0 27.0 729.0 16.1% 136.2
192.0 8.2% 151.1 16.9 284.8 10.0% 145.4 22.6 508.8 13.4% 143.7
961.0 16.5% 155.9 32.1 1032.0 17.1% 153.0 35.0 1225.0 18.6% 147.7
535.6 12.4% 160.9 25.1 631.3 13.5% 159.4 26.6 705.2 14.3% 156.5
394.3 10.5% 165.8 23.3 540.6 12.3% 163.7 25.3 641.8 13.4% 162.1
49.0 3.8% 171.6 12.4 153.1 6.7% 168.3 15.7 245.4 8.5% 166.2
1886.0 19.4% 177.9 46.1 2127.5 20.6% 173.0 51.0 2601.0 22.8% 169.9
411.5 9.8% 186.0 21.0 441.0 10.1% 183.0 24.0 576.0 11.6% 178.1
943.4 13.8% 189.3 33.8 1139.1 15.1% 188.3 34.7 1201.8 15.5% 185.4
97.2 4.7% 196.1 13.9 192.5 6.6% 193.0 17.0 289.0 8.1% 191.8
1740.1 17.0% 201.4 43.6 1903.1 17.8% 197.7 47.3 2240.4 19.3% 194.7
208.5 206.2 202.4
215.9 212.6 210.1
222.9 219.1 215.8
230.5 225.3 221.7
ECM MAPE MAD ECM MAPE MAD ECM MAPE
792.1 12.7% 28.2 926.2 14.2% 31.3 1120.1 15.8%
 Demanda Vs Pronosticos N=6 a N=12
250
240.0

230 235.0
Demanda
230.0
210 Pro.N=6
225.0
Pro.N=7
190 220.0
Pro.N=8
215.0

Valor
Pro.N=9
170
Pro.N=10 210.0
150 Pro.N=11 205.0
Pro.N=12
130 200.0

195.0
110
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 190.0
0.5
Trimestres (año 6 al 8)

10 11 12
ErrorError^2 MAPE Pronost.11 Error Error^2 MAPE Pronost.12 Error Error^2 MAPE
54.52970.25 30.1% 121.6 59.4 3524.0 32.8% 117.2 63.8 4074.7 35.3%
31.81011.24 18.9% 131.5 36.5 1335.6 21.8% 126.6 41.4 1715.3 24.7%
24.3 590.49 14.5% 139.1 28.9 835.7 17.2% 134.5 33.5 1122.3 19.9%
40.31624.09 21.4% 145.9 42.1 1771.6 22.4% 141.5 46.5 2162.3 24.7%
29.5 870.25 15.9% 151.4 34.6 1199.7 18.6% 149.4 36.6 1338.3 19.7%
26.9 723.61 14.2% 159.2 29.8 889.1 15.8% 154.3 34.8 1207.6 18.4%
17.8 316.84 9.7% 164.5 19.5 378.5 10.6% 161.7 22.3 498.8 12.1%
54.12926.81 24.2% 167.8 56.2 3156.4 25.1% 166.2 57.8 3344.7 25.8%
28.9 835.21 14.0% 174.8 32.2 1035.7 15.5% 172.5 34.5 1190.3 16.7%
37.61413.76 16.9% 180.7 42.3 1787.0 19.0% 177.5 45.5 2070.3 20.4%
18.2 331.24 8.7% 188.8 21.2 448.7 10.1% 184.3 25.8 663.1 12.3%
50.32530.09 20.5% 193.5 51.5 2656.9 21.0% 190.6 54.4 2961.2 22.2%
199.3 197.8
206.3 203.1
213.3 209.5
218.5 215.9
MAD ECM MAPE MAD ECM MAPE MAD ECM MAPE
34.5 1345.3 17.4% 37.8 1584.9 19.2% 41.4 1862.4 21.0%
 Pronosti cos Año 9
240.0

235.0

230.0

225.0

220.0 Pro.N=6
Pro.N=7
215.0
Valor

Pro.N=8
210.0
Pro.N=9
205.0
Pro.N=10
200.0 Pro.N=11
195.0 Pro.N=12

190.0
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
Trimestres (año 9)
Año Trimestre Demanda
1 28
2 16
1
3 73
4 61 300

1 57
2 43 250
2
3 44
4 68 200
1 68
2 73

Valor
150
3
3 84
4 93 100
1 128
2 100 Alpha 50
4
3 130 0.6219086
4 148 0
1 147 0 5

2 142
5
3 134
4 159 Pronostico Error Error ABS Error^2
1 181 159 22.0 22.0 484.0
2 168 172.7 -4.7 4.7 21.9
6
3 168 169.8 -1.8 1.8 3.1
4 188 168.7 19.3 19.3 373.7
1 186 180.7 5.3 5.3 28.2
2 189 184.0 5.0 5.0 25.1
7
3 184 187.1 -3.1 3.1 9.7
4 224 185.2 38.8 38.8 1507.4
1 207 209.3 -2.3 2.3 5.4
2 223 207.9 15.1 15.1 228.7
8
3 210 217.3 -7.3 7.3 53.0
4 245 212.8 32.2 32.2 1039.8
232.8
240.4
9
243.3
244.3
MAD ECM
13.1 315.0
 Demanda

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Trimestres (año 6 al 8) Demanda 0 a 8 años

MAPE
12.2% Demanda Vs Pronostico
-2.8% 260
-1.1%
240
10.3%
2.9% 220
2.6%
200
-1.7%
17.3% 180
Valor

-1.1%
160
6.8%
-3.5% 140
13.2%
120

100
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Trimestres (año 6 al 8) Demanda
Pronostico
MAPE
4.6%

Pronosti co Año 9
250

245

240

235

230 Pronostico
 Pronosti co Año 9
250

245

240

235

230 Pronostico
225
Valor
220

215

210

205

200
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
Trimestres (año 9)
 35

2 14
Demanda
Pronostico

Pronostico
Pronostico