Single Moving Average

Bulan Periode Aktual Prakiraan e ABS(e) e2 PE ABS(PE)

Jan 1 200
Peb 2 135
Mar 3 195
Apr 4 197.5 176.7 20.8 20.8 434.03 10.55 10.55
Mei 5 310 175.8 134.2 134.2 18000.69 43.28 43.28
Jun 6 175 234.2 -59.2 59.2 3500.69 -33.81 33.81
Jul 7 155 227.5 -72.5 72.5 5256.25 -46.77 46.77
Agt 8 130 213.3 -83.3 83.3 6944.44 -64.10 64.10
Sept 9 220 153.3 66.7 66.7 4444.44 30.30 30.30
Okt 10 277 168.3 108.7 108.7 11808.44 39.23 39.23
Nop 11 235 209.0 26.0 26.0 676.00 11.06 11.06
Des 12 244.0

ME 17.7
MAE 71.4
SSE 51065.0
Penjualan (ton)

Perataan Bergerak Tunggal

MSE 6383.13
SDE 85.41
MPE -1.28 350
MAPE 34.89 300

250

200

150

100

50

0
Jan Peb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Agt Sept Okt Nop Des

Bulan
Aktual
ept Okt Nop Des
Double Moving Average

Periode Aktual MA(4) MA(4x4) at bt Ft e PEt

1 140
2 159
3 136
4 157 148.00
5 173 156.25
6 131 149.25
7 177 159.50 153.25 165.75 4.167
8 188 167.25 158.06 176.44 6.125 169.92
9 154 162.50 159.63 165.38 1.917 182.56
10 179 174.50 165.94 183.06 5.708 167.29 11.71 6.541
11 180 175.25 169.88 180.63 3.583 188.77 -8.77 4.873
12 160 168.25 170.13 166.38 -1.250 184.21 -24.21 15.130
13 182 175.25 173.31 177.19 1.292 165.13 16.88 9.272
14 192 178.50 174.31 182.69 2.792 178.48 13.52 7.042
Periode pengujian

15 224 189.50 177.88 201.13 7.750 185.48 38.52 17.197

16 188 196.50 184.94 208.06 7.708 208.88 -20.88 11.104
17 198 200.50 191.25 209.75 6.167 215.77 -17.77 8.975
18 206 204.00 197.63 210.38 4.250 215.92 -9.92 4.814
19 203 198.75 199.94 197.56 -0.792 214.63 -11.63 5.727
20 238 211.25 203.63 218.88 5.083 196.77 41.23 17.323
21 228 218.75 208.19 229.31 7.042 223.96 4.04 1.773
22 231 225.00 213.44 236.56 7.708 236.35 -5.35 2.318
23 221 229.50 221.13 237.88 5.583 244.27 -23.27 10.530
24 259 234.75 227.00 242.50 5.167 243.46 15.54 6.001
25 273 246.00 233.81 258.19 8.125 247.67 25.33 9.280
26 266.31

MAPE 8.619
Penjualan (ton)

300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2

Periode
Aktual
120
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2

Periode
Aktual
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Single Exponential Smoothing Asumsi F1=X1 (0.1*C5)+((1-0.1)*(D5))

Bulan Periode (t) Aktual (Xt) Ft (a = 0.1) et PEt |PEt|

Jan 1 200 200
Peb 2 135 200 -65.0 -48.1 48.1
Mar 3 195 193.5 1.5 0.8 0.8
Apr 4 197.5 193.7 3.9 1.9 1.9
Mei 5 310 194.0 116.0 37.4 37.4
Jun 6 175 205.6 -30.6 -17.5 17.5
Jul 7 155 202.6 -47.6 -30.7 30.7
Agt 8 130 197.8 -67.8 -52.2 52.2
Sept 9 220 191.0 29.0 13.2 13.2
Okt 10 277.5 193.9 83.6 30.1 30.1
Nop 11 235 202.3 32.7 13.9 13.9
Des 12 205.6 MAPE = 24.58

310
300
290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1*C5)+((1-0.1)*(D5))

8 9 10 11
8 9 10 11
Single Exponential Smoothing Asumsi F2=X1 (G5*C5)+((1-G5)*(D5))

Bulan Periode (t) Aktual (Xt) Prakiraan (Ft) et Et Mt

Jan 1 200 0 0
Peb 2 135 200 -65.0 -13.0 13.0
Mar 3 195 187 8.0 -8.8 12.0
Apr 4 197.5 188.6 8.9 -5.3 11.4
Mei 5 310 190.4 119.6 19.7 33.0
Jun 6 175 245.7 -70.7 1.6 40.6
Jul 7 155 203.5 -48.5 -8.4 42.1
Agt 8 130 201.5 -71.5 -21.0 48.0
Sept 9 220 187.3 32.7 -10.3 45.0
Okt 10 277.5 201.6 75.9 7.0 51.1
Nop 11 235 218.9 16.1 8.8 44.1
Des 12 221.1

310
300
290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1
+((1-G5)*(D5))
Kecermatan prakiraan dengan
Asumsi b = 0.2 MAPE
at PEt |PEt|
Asumsi oleh pemrakira
(forecaster)
0.200 -48.15 48.148
0.200 4.10 4.10
0.200 4.51 4.51
0.4622 38.59 38.59
0.5969 -40.38 40.38
0.040 -31.28 31.28
0.199 -55.02 55.02
0.4376 14.87 14.87
0.2284 27.35 27.35
0.1362 6.83 6.83
MAPE = 27.108

8 9 10 11
8 9 10 11
kiraan dengan
DES Satu Parameter (Brown's Method)
Inisiasi:
Periode Permintaan S't S''t at bt Prakiraan (Ft)
S't=S''t=X1
1 143 143 143
2 152 144.80 143.36 146.240 0.360 E5 + (F5*1)
3 161 148.04 144.30 151.784 0.936 146.60
4 139 146.23 144.68 147.781 0.387 152.72
5 137 144.39 144.62 144.148 -0.060 148.17
6 174 150.31 145.76 154.856 1.137 144.09
7 142 148.65 146.34 150.956 0.577 155.99
8 141 147.12 146.49 147.741 0.156 151.53
9 162 150.09 147.21 152.974 0.720 147.90
10 180 156.08 148.99 163.164 1.772 153.69
11 164 157.66 150.72 164.599 1.735 164.94
12 171 160.33 152.64 168.014 1.921 166.33
13 206 169.46 156.01 182.919 3.364 169.94
14 193 174.17 159.64 188.701 3.633 186.28
15 207 180.74 163.86 197.614 4.219 192.33
16 218 188.19 168.72 207.653 4.866 201.83
17 229 196.35 174.25 218.452 5.525 212.52 Data pengujian kecerma
18 225 202.08 179.82 224.346 5.566 223.98
19 204 202.46 184.35 220.584 4.530 229.91
20 227 207.37 188.95 225.793 4.605 225.11
21 223 210.50 193.26 227.735 4.309 230.40
22 242 216.80 197.97 235.628 4.708 232.04
23 239 221.24 202.62 239.855 4.654 240.34
24 266 230.19 208.14 252.246 5.514 244.51
25 257.76 m=1 E27 + F27*1
26 263.27 m=2 E27 + F27*2
27 268.79 m=3 E27 + F27*3
28 274.30 m=4 E27 + F27*4
29 279.81 m=5 E27 + F27*5
30 285.33 m=6 E27 + F27*6

Kecermatan prakiraan dengan MSE

Periode (Xt) Prakiraan (Ft) et e t2

1 143
2 152
3 161 146.60
4 139 152.72
5 137 148.17
6 174 144.09
7 142 155.99
8 141 151.53
9 162 147.90
10 180 153.69 26 692
11 164 164.94 -1 1
12 171 166.33 5 22
13 206 169.94 36 1301
14 193 186.28 7 45
15 207 192.33 15 215
16 218 201.83 16 261
17 229 212.52 16 272
18 225 223.98 1 1
19 204 229.91 -26 671
20 227 225.11 2 4
21 223 230.40 -7 55
22 242 232.04 10 99
23 239 240.34 -1 2
24 266 244.51 21 462
MSE = 273
i:
t=X1
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Aktual

Data pengujian kecermatan

E27 + F27*1
E27 + F27*2
E27 + F27*3
E27 + F27*4
E27 + F27*5
E27 + F27*6
5 26 27 28 29 30
DES Satu Parameter (Holt's Method)
a = 0,2 g = 0,3
S1 = X1 b1 = X2 - X1
Periode Permintaan St bt Prakiraan (Ft)
1 97 97 -2.00 220
2 95 95.00 -2.00
3 161 161.00 18.40 93.00 200
F3 = S2 + b2*(1)
4 139 171.32 15.98 179.40
5 137 177.24 12.96 187.30 180
6 174 186.96 11.99 190.20
7 142 187.55 8.57 198.94 160
8 141 185.10 5.26 196.12
140
9 162 184.69 3.56 190.36
10 180 186.60 3.07 188.25
120
11 164 184.53 1.53 189.67
12 171 183.05 0.62 186.06
100
13 206 188.14 1.96 183.67
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
14 193 190.68 2.14 190.10

Data pengujian

m=1 E27 + F27*1

m=2 E27 + F27*2
m=3 E27 + F27*3
m=4 E27 + F27*4
m=5 E27 + F27*5
m=6 E27 + F27*6

Kecermatan prakiraan dengan MSE

Periode Permintaan Prakiraan (Ft) et et2
1 143 0.00
2 152 0.00
3 161 93.00
4 139 179.40
5 137 187.30
6 174 190.20
7 142 198.94
8 141 196.12
9 162 190.36
10 180 188.25 -8.25 68.067
11 164 189.67 -25.67 658.745
12 171 186.06 -15.06 226.764
13 206 183.67 22.33 498.661
14 193 190.10 2.90 8.424
15 207 0.00 207.00 42849.000
16 218 0.00 218.00 47524.000
17 229 0.00 229.00 52441.000
18 225 0.00 225.00 50625.000
19 204 0.00 204.00 41616.000
20 227 0.00 227.00 51529.000
21 223 0.00 223.00 49729.000
22 242 0.00 242.00 58564.000
23 239 0.00 239.00 57121.000
24 266 0.00 266.00 70756.000
MSE = 34947.644
0

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Aktual