CONTOH SIMULASI ANALISIS PERAMALAN RUNTUN WAKTU DENGAN METODE RERATA BERGERAK GANDA LINIER

Nilai a+b(m) Nilai a+b(m)

Single MA (4) double MA (2x4) Nilai Nilai
Periode Produksi Dari (1) dari (2) a b Bila m = 1 Bila m = 2
1 140.00
2 159.00
3 136.00
4 157.00 148.00
5 173.00 156.25
6 131.00 149.25
7 177.00 159.50 153.25 165.75 4.167
8 188.00 167.25 158.06 176.44 6.125 169.92
9 154.00 162.50 159.63 165.38 1.917 182.56 174.08
10 179.00 174.50 165.94 183.06 5.708 167.29 188.69
11 180.00 175.25 169.88 180.63 3.583 188.77 169.21
12 160.00 168.25 170.13 166.38 -1.250 184.21 194.48
13 182.00 175.25 173.31 177.19 1.292 165.13 187.79
14 192.00 178.50 174.31 182.69 2.792 178.48 163.88
15 224.00 189.50 177.88 201.13 7.750 185.48 179.77
16 188.00 196.50 184.94 208.06 7.708 208.88 188.27
17 198.00 200.50 191.25 209.75 6.167 215.77 216.63
18 206.00 204.00 197.63 210.38 4.250 215.92 223.48
19 203.00 198.75 199.94 197.56 -0.792 214.63 222.08
20 238.00 211.25 203.63 218.88 5.083 196.77 218.88
21 228.00 218.75 208.19 229.31 7.042 223.96 195.98
22 231.00 225.00 213.44 236.56 7.708 236.35 229.04
23 221.00 229.50 221.13 237.88 5.583 244.27 243.40
24 259.00 234.75 227.00 242.50 5.167 243.46 251.98
25 273.00 246.00 233.81 258.19 8.125 247.67 249.04
266.31 252.83
274.44

MAPE = Mean Absolute Persentange Error = Rerata % Kesalahan absolut

K GANDA LINIER

Nilai a+b(m)
APE = Abolute persentasi eror (% Kesalahan Absolut)
Bila m = 3 MA(4) MA (2X4) f : M=1 f : M=2 f : M=2

178.25 2.51 7.30 6.54 5.41 0.42

194.81 2.64 5.63 4.87 6.00 8.23
171.13 5.16 6.33 15.13 21.55 6.95
200.19 3.71 4.77 9.27 3.18 9.99
191.38 7.03 9.21 7.04 14.65 0.33
162.63 15.40 20.59 17.20 19.75 27.40
181.06 4.52 1.63 11.10 0.14 3.69
191.06 1.26 3.41 8.98 9.41 3.50
224.38 0.97 4.07 4.81 8.49 8.92
231.19 2.09 1.51 5.73 9.40 13.89
228.25 11.24 14.44 17.32 8.04 4.10
223.13 4.06 8.69 1.77 14.04 2.14
195.19 2.60 7.60 2.32 0.85 15.50
234.13 3.85 0.06 10.53 10.13 5.94
250.44 9.36 12.36 6.00 2.71 3.31
259.69 9.89 14.35 9.28 8.78 4.88
254.63
258.00
282.56
5.39 7.62 8.62 8.91 7.45
CONTOH SIMULASI ANALISIS PERAMALAN RUNTUN WAKTU
DENGAN MERODE PEMULUSAN EKSPONENSIAL TUNGGAL
Ft+1 = α X t + ( 1 - α ) Ft dengan 0 < α < 1

(X) Ramalan (F) pada α = APE = % Kesalahan Absolut pada α=

Periode
LTS 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.9
1 200
2 135 200 200 200 48.1 48.1 48.1
3 195 193.5 167.5 141.5 0.8 14.1 27.4
4 197 193.7 181.3 189.7 1.7 8.0 3.7
5 310 194.0 189.1 196.3 37.4 39.0 36.7
6 175 205.6 249.6 298.6 17.5 42.6 70.6
7 155 202.5 212.3 187.4 30.7 37.0 20.9
8 130 197.8 183.6 158.2 52.1 41.3 21.7
9 220 191.0 156.8 132.8 13.2 28.7 39.6
10 277.5 193.9 188.4 211.3 30.1 32.1 23.9
11 235 202.3 233.0 270.9 13.9 0.9 15.3
12 205.5 234.0 238.6
MAPE= Rerata % kesalahan absolut : 24.6 29.2 30.8
 1 2 3
Nilai Nilai
Periode Produksi Single Esponetial Double Esponential
at bt
1 143 143 143
2 152 144.8 143.36 146.24 0.36
3 161 148.04 144.30 151.78 0.94
4 139 146.23 144.68 147.78 0.39
5 137 144.39 144.62 144.15 -0.06
6 174 150.31 145.76 154.86 1.14
7 142 148.65 146.34 150.96 0.58
8 141 147.12 146.49 147.74 0.16
9 162 150.09 147.21 152.97 0.72
P 10 180 156.08 148.99 163.16 1.77
E 11 164 157.66 150.72 164.60 1.73
R 12 171 160.33 152.64 168.01 1.92
I 13 206 169.46 156.01 182.92 3.36
O 14 193 174.17 159.64 188.70 3.63
D 15 207 180.74 163.86 197.61 4.22
E 16 218 188.19 168.72 207.65 4.87
17 229 196.35 174.25 218.45 5.53
P 18 225 202.08 179.82 224.35 5.57
E 19 204 202.46 184.35 220.58 4.53
N 20 227 207.37 188.95 225.79 4.61
G 21 223 210.50 193.26 227.73 4.31
U 22 242 216.80 197.97 235.63 4.71
J 23 239 221.24 202.62 239.85 4.65
A 24 266 230.19 208.14 252.25 5.51
N 25 ma1
N 26 ma2
27 ma2
28 ma4
MAPE = Rerata % Kesalahan absolute
Ramalan
APE
F

146.60 8.94
152.72 9.87
148.17 8.15
144.09 17.19
155.99 9.85
151.53 7.47
147.90 8.71
153.69 14.61
164.94 0.57
166.33 2.73
169.94 17.51
186.28 3.48
192.33 7.09
201.83 7.42
212.52 7.20
223.98 0.45
229.91 12.70
225.11 0.83
230.40 3.32
232.04 4.11
240.34 0.56
244.51 8.08
257.76
263.27
268.79
274.30
7.31