Semana Per.

T Demanda ST ST[2] Pronóstico eT |eT|

1 23
2 28
3 16
4 22
5 30 a1(0)=
6 31 b2(0)=
7 25 b1(0)=
8 9
9 20
10 22
11 35
12 32
13 23
14 13
15 15
16 29
17 24
18 38
19 15
20 15
21 24
22 44
23 22
24 40
25 60
26 18
27 39
28 53
29 56
30 19
31 51
32 41
33 30
34 52
35 44
36 51
37 59
38 45
39 53
40 37
41 56
42 29
43 54
44 38
45 29
46 51
47 33
48 27
49 65
50 43
51 0 48 34.8545 20.1094
52 1 44 35.2070 20.6913 50.19 -6.19 6.19
53 2 47 35.6615 21.2682 50.30 -3.30 3.30
54 3 47 36.0984 21.8398 50.63 -3.63 3.63
55 4 36 36.0946 22.3891 50.93 -14.93 14.93
56 5 79 37.7482 22.9811 50.35 28.65 28.65
57 6 62 38.6828 23.5862 53.11 8.89 8.89
58 7 31 38.3867 24.1566 54.38 -23.38 23.38
59 8 75 39.7978 24.7594 53.19 21.81 21.81
60 9 38 39.7285 25.3363 55.44 -17.44 17.44
61 10 40 39.7390 25.8914 54.70 -14.70 14.70
62 11 60 40.5198 26.4551 54.14 5.86 5.86
63 12 44 40.6539 27.0023 55.15 -11.15 11.15
64 13 37 40.5131 27.5230 54.85 -17.85 17.85
65 14 34 40.2621 28.0140 54.02 -20.02 20.02
66 15 59 40.9842 28.5139 53.00 6.00 6.00
67 16 47 41.2161 29.0034 53.95 -6.95 6.95
68 17 53 41.6702 29.4916 53.92 -0.92 0.92
69 18 48 41.9142 29.9703 54.34 -6.34 6.34
70 19 44 41.9946 30.4337 54.34 -10.34 10.34
71 20 39 41.8791 30.8748 54.02 -15.02 15.02
72 21 52 42.2692 31.3140 53.32 -1.32 1.32
73 22 70 43.3379 31.7773 53.66 16.34 16.34
74 23 58 43.9030 32.2447 55.36 2.64 2.64
75 24 66 44.7546 32.7268 56.03 9.97 9.97
76 25 54 45.1109 33.2041 57.26 -3.26 3.26
77 26 47 45.1837 33.6657 57.50 -10.50 10.50
78 27 71 46.1786 34.1480 57.16 13.84 13.84
79 28 59 46.6728 34.6307 58.69 0.31 0.31
80 29 73 47.6874 35.1339 59.20 13.80 13.80
81 30 46 47.6224 35.6152 60.74 -14.74 14.74
82 31 44 47.4828 36.0725 60.11 -16.11 16.11
83 32 62 48.0422 36.5338 59.35 2.65 2.65
84 33 69 48.8499 37.0085 60.01 8.99 8.99
85 34 30 48.1235 37.4369 61.17 -31.17 31.17
86 35 73 49.0822 37.8857 59.24 13.76 13.76
87 36 72 49.9654 38.3512 60.73 11.27 11.27
88 37 59 50.3136 38.8122 62.05 -3.05 3.05
89 38 59 50.6484 39.2684 62.28 -3.28 3.28
 90 39 ? 1 62.48
2 62.94
Alpha 0.0385 3 63.40
Alpha max 0.001 4 63.85
Alpha min 0.3 5 64.31
6 64.77
Factor k 1.96

MAD,ECM,MAPE,MAPE´ 11.06

Desviacion estandar estimada 13.86

100

90

80

70

60
Semana

50

40

30

20

10

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Demanda

Semana Demanda Linear (Demanda) Pronostico

et2 APE APE' Inv.Máx.

19.4565
0.5910
49.5995
 38.32 14% 12% 76.4376
10.92 7% 7% 50.3045
13.19 8% 7% 50.6316
222.86 41% 29% 50.9286
820.85 36% 57% 50.3495
79.08 14% 17% 53.1072
546.84 75% 43% 54.3846
475.80 29% 41% 53.1873
304.12 46% 31% 55.4390
216.02 37% 27% 54.6976
34.32 10% 11% 54.1416
124.28 25% 20% 55.1482
318.72 48% 33% 54.8527
400.96 59% 37% 54.0239
35.99 10% 11% 53.0012
48.36 15% 13% 53.9545
0.84 2% 2% 53.9183
40.16 13% 12% 54.3371
106.85 23% 19% 54.3368
225.56 39% 28% 54.0188
1.75 3% 2% 53.3246
266.88 23% 30% 53.6636
6.96 5% 5% 55.3619
99.43 15% 18% 56.0286
10.66 6% 6% 57.2645
110.15 22% 18% 57.4950
191.45 19% 24% 57.1634
0.10 1% 1% 58.6915
190.51 19% 23% 59.1976
217.39 32% 24% 60.7441
259.56 37% 27% 60.1109
7.02 4% 4% 59.3504
80.78 13% 15% 60.0120
971.32 104% 51% 61.1660
189.38 19% 23% 59.2385
127.07 16% 19% 60.7276
9.27 5% 5% 62.0452
10.73 6% 5% 62.2760
 179.33 23.69% 19.93%

13.39

70 80 90 100

Pronostico