Year Total Tons Year

1960 434,329,000 1
1961 420,423,000 2
1962 439,043,000 3 Year Residual Plot
1963 477,195,000 4
1964 504,182,000 5 150000000
1965 526,954,000 6
1966 546,822,000 7 100000000
1967 564,882,000 8 50000000
1968 556,706,000 9

Residuals
1969 570,978,000 10 0
1970 612,661,000 11 0 10 20 30
1971 560,919,000 12 -50000000
1972 602,492,000 13
-100000000
1973 598,568,000 14
1974 610,023,000 15 -150000000
1975 654,641,000 16
1976 684,913,000 17 -200000000
1977 697,205,000 18 Year
1978 670,164,000 19
1979 781,134,000 20
1980 829,700,000 21
1981 823,775,000 22 Since residual graph is
1982 838,112,000 23
1983 782,091,000 24
1984 895,920,767 25
1985 883,638,117 26
1986 890,314,708 27
1987 918,762,162 28
1988 950,265,278 29
1989 980,728,790 30
1990 1,029,075,527 31
1991 995,983,881 32
1992 997,544,933 33
1993 945,424,286 34
1994 1,033,504,293 35
1995 1,032,973,772 36
1996 1,063,855,513 37
1997 1,089,931,788 38
1998 1,117,535,167 39
1999 1,100,431,428 40
2000 1,073,611,561 41
2001 1,127,688,806 42 SUMMARY OUTPUT
2002 1,094,283,061 43
2003 1,071,752,573 44 Regression Statistics
2004 1,112,098,870 45 Multiple R 0.972377
2005 1,131,498,099 46 R Square 0.945517
2006 1,162,749,659 47 Adjusted R 0.944427
2007 1,145,567,167 48 Standard E56630160
2008 1,171,808,669 49 Observatio 52
2009 1,074,923,392 50
2010 1,084,368,148 51 ANOVA
2011 1,094,335,567 52 df SS MS
2012 Regression 1 2.78E+18 2.78E+18
2013 Residual 50 1.6E+17 3.21E+15
Total 51 2.94E+18

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
Intercept 4.39E+08 15935683 27.53694
Year 15413537 523255.4 29.457

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted Total Tons
Residuals
1 4.54E+08 -2E+07
2 4.7E+08-49223959
3 4.85E+08-46017496
4 5E+08-23279033
5 5.16E+08-11705570
6 5.31E+08 -4347107
7 5.47E+08 107355.9
8 5.62E+08 2753819
9 5.78E+08-20835718
10 5.93E+08-21977255
11 6.08E+08 4292208
12 6.24E+08-62863329
13 6.39E+08-36703866
14 6.55E+08-56041403
15 6.7E+08 -6E+07
16 6.85E+08-30795477
17 7.01E+08-15937014
18 7.16E+08-19058551
19 7.32E+08-61513088
20 7.47E+08 34043375
21 7.63E+08 67195838
22 7.78E+08 45857301
23 7.93E+08 44780764
24 8.09E+08-26653773
25 8.24E+08 71762457
26 8.4E+08 44066270
27 8.55E+08 35329324
28 8.7E+08 48363242
29 8.86E+08 64452821
30 9.01E+08 79502796
31 9.17E+08 1.12E+08
32 9.32E+08 63930813
33 9.47E+08 50078328
34 9.63E+08-17455856
35 9.78E+08 55210614
36 9.94E+08 39266556
37 1.01E+09 54734760
38 1.02E+09 65397498
39 1.04E+09 77587340
40 1.06E+09 45070064
41 1.07E+09 2836660
42 1.09E+09 41500368
43 1.1E+09 -7318914
44 1.12E+09-45262939
45 1.13E+09 -2E+07
46 1.15E+09-16344487
47 1.16E+09 -506464
48 1.18E+09-33102493
49 1.19E+09-22274528
50 1.21E+09 -1.35E+08
51 1.22E+09 -1.41E+08
52 1.24E+09 -1.46E+08
Residual Plot Chart Title
1,400,000,000

1,200,000,000

1,000,000,000

800,000,000
20 30 40 50 60
600,000,000

400,000,000

200,000,000

Year 0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 5

Since residual graph is not random we will use double exponential

 F Significance F
867.7151 2.941E-33

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
7.059E-32 4.07E+08 4.71E+08 4.07E+08 4.71E+08
2.941E-33 14362548 16464526 14362548 16464526
34 37 40 43 46 49 52
 Year Total Tons at bt
1960 434,329,000 Ft+1 Average Percentage Error
1961 420,423,000 434,329,000 -13,906,000
1962 439,043,000 420423000 -13906000 420,423,000 4.24104245
1963 477,195,000 430330021 -8610575 406,517,000 14.81113591
1964 504,182,000 462334355 421173.006 421,719,446 16.35571162
1965 526,954,000 493084786 7165647.42 462,755,528 12.18293662
1966 546,822,000 519800719 11513145.8 500,250,434 8.51676897
1967 564,882,000 542667722 14037961.9 531,313,865 5.94250392
1968 556,706,000 562691750 15369114.5 556,705,684 0.00005683
1969 570,978,000 562426485 11892416.4 578,060,864 1.24047940
1970 612,661,000 571872952 11348497.9 574,318,901 6.25828949
1971 560,919,000 604774811 16141430.7 583,221,450 3.97605531
1972 602,492,000 576990903 6373525.2 620,916,242 3.05800603
1973 598,568,000 597368156 9487606.98 583,364,428 2.53999081
1974 610,023,000 600788104 8138310.11 606,855,763 0.51919953
1975 654,641,000 609729250 8316840.74 608,926,414 6.98315347
1976 684,913,000 644838052 14274708.3 618,046,090 9.76283261
1977 697,205,000 678001700 18475139.7 659,112,761 5.46356372
1978 670,164,000 697009942 18593688.5 696,476,840 3.92632844
1979 781,134,000 682336248 11195848.1 715,603,631 8.38913286
1980 829,700,000 757667433 25457955.7 693,532,096 16.41170346
1981 823,775,000 817223716 33040577.5 783,125,389 4.93455262
1982 838,112,000 830870882 28727964 850,264,294 1.44996060
1983 782,091,000 843867840 25229778.5 859,598,846 9.91033601
1984 895,920,767 805398103 11064586.9 869,097,618 2.99391977
1985 883,638,117 874635747 24000831.4 816,462,690 7.60214230
1986 890,314,708 887655865 21558993.2 898,636,579 0.93471112
1987 918,762,162 895377630 18481937 909,214,858 1.03914853
1988 950,265,278 917448868 19280108.4 913,859,567 3.83111026
1989 980,728,790 946639209 21483898.3 936,728,976 4.48644051
1990 1,029,075,527 977352013 23536177.9 968,123,108 5.92302682
1991 995,983,881 1021524778 28125242.8 1,000,888,191 0.49240857
1992 997,544,933 1010359825 19388078.1 1,049,650,021 5.22333240
1993 945,424,286 1006171379 14145244.3 1,029,747,903 8.91912955
1994 1,033,504,293 965486248 1952329.17 1,020,316,624 1.27601494
1995 1,032,973,772 1015806783 12708218.2 967,438,577 6.34432325
1996 1,063,855,513 1031779368 13434132.3 1,028,515,002 3.32192774
1997 1,089,931,788 1058861740 16469162.1 1,045,213,501 4.10285192
1998 1,117,535,167 1086020541 18846272.6 1,075,330,902 3.77654916
1999 1,100,431,428 1114141602 20908755.4 1,104,866,814 0.40305881
2000 1,073,611,561 1109705055 15272589.1 1,135,050,357 5.72262805
2001 1,127,688,806 1087371372 6909887.16 1,124,977,644 0.24041753
2002 1,094,283,061 1118739681 12348833.2 1,094,281,259 0.00016468
2003 1,071,752,573 1104142408 6356688.04 1,131,088,514 5.53634694
2004 1,112,098,870 1082131889 48525.0501 1,110,499,097 0.14385173
2005 1,131,498,099 1104084393 4919426.42 1,082,180,414 4.35861842
2006 1,162,749,659 1125472391 8581628.03 1,109,003,820 4.62230533
2007 1,145,567,167 1155062747 13253447.8 1,134,054,019 1.00501729
2008 1,171,808,669 1151661116 9549771.7 1,168,316,195 0.29804136
2009 1,074,923,392 1168969763 11275153.1 1,161,210,888 8.02731588
2010 1,084,368,148 1103136644 -5871813.5 1,180,244,917 8.84171752
2011 1,094,335,567 1087822877 -7971469.6 1,097,264,830 0.26767505
2012 1,079,851,408
2013
4.93215872
Alpha 0.732123
Beta 0.222375