date sales

2013/01 4,398
2013/02 4,887
2013/03 6,128
2013/04 6,137
2013/05 6,661
2013/06 6,418
2013/07 7,408
2013/08 8,122
2013/09 6,507
2013/10 7,634
2013/11 6,936
2013/12 6,422
2014/01 6,086
2014/02 5,218
2014/03 7,355
2014/04 6,883
2014/05 8,645
2014/06 8,000
2014/07 8,228
2014/08 6,508
2014/09 6,635
2014/10 6,617
2014/11 5,351
2014/12 5,852
2015/01 5,602
2015/02 5,114
2015/03 6,021
2015/04 6,307
2015/05 6,426
2015/06 6,416
2015/07 6,392
2015/08 5,953
2015/09 5,652
2015/10 6,451
2015/11 5,986
2015/12 6,768
2016/01 7,456
2016/02 6,424
2016/03 6,525
2016/04 6,466
2016/05 7,155
2016/06 6,238
2016/07 6,143
2016/08 6,674
2016/09 6,638
2016/10 6,705
2016/11 6,381
2016/12 6,859
2017/01 7,768
2017/02 5,748
2017/03 7,617
2017/04 6,967
2017/05 7,081
2017/06 7,626
 Figure 1. Rib Eye monthly sales
9,000

8,000
Sales (units)

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000
13 013 013 013 013 013 014 014 014 014 014 014 015 015 015 015 015 015 016 016 016 016 016 016 017 017 017
20 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
 date t sales trend (a) slope (b) seasonal (s) pred sales
2013/01 1 4,398 4,398.0 0.0 1.00 4,398.0
2013/02 2 4,887 4,495.8 19.6 1.00 4,495.8
2013/03 3 6,128 4,837.9 84.1 1.00 4,837.9
2013/04 4 6,137 5,165.0 132.7 1.00 5,165.0
2013/05 5 6,661 5,570.3 187.2 1.00 5,570.3
2013/06 6 6,418 5,889.6 213.6 1.00 5,889.6
2013/07 7 7,408 6,364.2 265.8 1.00 6,364.2
2013/08 8 8,122 6,928.4 325.5 1.00 6,928.4
2013/09 9 6,507 7,104.5 295.6 1.00 7,104.5
2013/10 10 7,634 7,446.9 305.0 1.00 7,446.9
2013/11 11 6,936 7,588.7 272.3 1.00 7,588.7
2013/12 12 6,422 7,573.2 214.8 1.00 7,573.2
2014/01 13 6,086 7,447.6 146.7 0.96 7,175.3
2014/02 14 5,218 7,119.0 51.6 0.95 6,738.8
2014/03 15 7,355 7,207.5 59.0 1.00 7,237.0
2014/04 16 6,883 7,189.9 43.7 0.99 7,128.5
2014/05 17 8,645 7,515.8 100.1 1.03 7,741.7
2014/06 18 8,000 7,692.8 115.5 1.01 7,754.2
2014/07 19 8,228 7,892.2 132.3 1.01 7,959.4
2014/08 20 6,508 7,721.2 71.6 0.97 7,478.6
2014/09 21 6,635 7,561.3 25.3 0.98 7,376.0
2014/10 22 6,617 7,392.7 -13.5 0.98 7,237.5
2014/11 23 5,351 6,973.5 -94.6 0.95 6,649.0
2014/12 24 5,852 6,673.6 -135.7 0.98 6,509.2
2015/01 25 5,602 6,393.2 -164.6 0.95 6,048.0
2015/02 26 5,114 6,063.4 -197.7 0.93 5,614.5
2015/03 27 6,021 5,891.9 -192.4 1.01 5,937.0
2015/04 28 6,307 5,831.8 -165.9 1.01 5,887.0
2015/05 29 6,426 5,780.4 -143.0 1.05 6,048.5
2015/06 30 6,416 5,782.9 -113.9 1.03 5,946.5
2015/07 31 6,392 5,802.8 -87.2 1.03 5,960.2
2015/08 32 5,953 5,801.7 -69.9 0.98 5,686.1
2015/09 33 5,652 5,744.2 -67.5 0.98 5,613.2
2015/10 34 6,451 5,859.3 -31.0 1.00 5,879.3
2015/11 35 5,986 5,918.3 -13.0 0.97 5,711.5
2015/12 36 6,768 6,112.0 28.4 1.00 6,122.8
2016/01 37 7,456 6,488.6 98.0 0.99 6,401.8
2016/02 38 6,424 6,656.9 112.1 0.93 6,216.0
2016/03 39 6,525 6,710.2 100.3 1.00 6,714.3
2016/04 40 6,466 6,729.5 84.1 1.00 6,727.8
2016/05 41 7,155 6,818.5 85.1 1.05 7,138.8
2016/06 42 6,238 6,736.1 51.6 1.01 6,788.9
2016/07 43 6,143 6,626.4 19.3 1.01 6,673.4
2016/08 44 6,674 6,678.5 25.9 0.98 6,571.1
2016/09 45 6,638 6,722.1 29.4 0.98 6,582.6
2016/10 46 6,705 6,737.7 26.7 1.00 6,749.5
2016/11 47 6,381 6,733.8 20.6 0.96 6,475.1
2016/12 48 6,859 6,772.9 24.3 1.00 6,799.7
Forecasting 2017
Month Actual sales Forecast Error
1 7,768 6,706.2 1,061.8
2 5,748 6,369.7 -621.7
3 7,617 6,849.8 767.2
4 6,967 6,868.2 98.8
5 7,081 7,218.1 -137.1
6 7,626 6,972.7 653.3
 Figure 2. Rib Eye sales with HW trend (alpha = 0.2)
9,000

8,000
Sales (units)

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000
13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
 date t sales trend (a) slope (b) seasonal (s) pred sales
2013/01 1 4,398 4,398.0 0.0 1.00 4,398.0
2013/02 2 4,887 4,642.5 48.9 1.00 4,642.5
2013/03 3 6,128 5,409.7 192.6 1.00 5,409.7
2013/04 4 6,137 5,869.6 246.0 1.00 5,869.6
2013/05 5 6,661 6,388.3 300.6 1.00 6,388.3
2013/06 6 6,418 6,553.4 273.5 1.00 6,553.4
2013/07 7 7,408 7,117.5 331.6 1.00 7,117.5
2013/08 8 8,122 7,785.5 398.9 1.00 7,785.5
2013/09 9 6,507 7,345.7 231.1 1.00 7,345.7
2013/10 10 7,634 7,605.4 236.9 1.00 7,605.4
2013/11 11 6,936 7,389.1 146.2 1.00 7,389.1
2013/12 12 6,422 6,978.7 34.9 1.00 6,978.7
2014/01 13 6,086 6,549.8 -57.9 0.99 6,457.0
2014/02 14 5,218 5,855.0 -185.3 0.98 5,727.6
2014/03 15 7,355 6,512.4 -16.7 1.03 6,680.9
2014/04 16 6,883 6,689.3 22.0 1.01 6,728.0
2014/05 17 8,645 7,678.2 215.4 1.03 7,871.5
2014/06 18 8,000 7,946.8 226.0 1.00 7,957.4
2014/07 19 8,228 8,200.4 231.5 1.00 8,205.9
2014/08 20 6,508 7,470.0 39.2 0.97 7,277.6
2014/09 21 6,635 7,072.1 -48.3 0.99 6,984.6
2014/10 22 6,617 6,820.4 -88.9 0.99 6,779.7
2014/11 23 5,351 6,041.2 -227.0 0.98 5,903.2
2014/12 24 5,852 5,833.1 -223.2 1.00 5,836.9
2015/01 25 5,602 5,646.2 -216.0 0.99 5,573.4
2015/02 26 5,114 5,329.0 -236.2 0.97 5,193.2
2015/03 27 6,021 5,481.0 -158.6 1.04 5,702.4
2015/04 28 6,307 5,796.5 -63.7 1.02 5,925.5
2015/05 29 6,426 6,000.5 -10.2 1.03 6,206.5
2015/06 30 6,416 6,198.8 31.5 1.01 6,248.9
2015/07 31 6,392 6,309.0 47.2 1.00 6,329.0
2015/08 32 5,953 6,233.3 22.7 0.97 6,048.8
2015/09 33 5,652 5,989.4 -30.7 0.98 5,862.7
2015/10 34 6,451 6,224.2 22.4 1.00 6,239.9
2015/11 35 5,986 6,186.3 10.4 0.98 6,033.2
2015/12 36 6,768 6,480.1 67.1 1.01 6,541.1
2016/01 37 7,456 7,050.3 167.7 1.00 7,058.7
2016/02 38 6,424 6,905.0 105.1 0.97 6,668.0
2016/03 39 6,525 6,640.8 31.2 1.03 6,832.3
2016/04 40 6,466 6,498.7 -3.4 1.02 6,607.8
2016/05 41 7,155 6,706.4 38.8 1.04 6,980.3
2016/06 42 6,238 6,466.6 -16.9 1.00 6,462.7
2016/07 43 6,143 6,286.6 -49.5 1.00 6,273.8
2016/08 44 6,674 6,557.3 14.5 0.98 6,425.4
2016/09 45 6,638 6,676.6 35.5 0.98 6,555.9
2016/10 46 6,705 6,700.1 33.1 1.00 6,714.6
2016/11 47 6,381 6,638.1 14.1 0.97 6,455.2
2016/12 48 6,859 6,723.6 28.4 1.01 6,801.3
Forecasting 2017
Month Actual sales Forecast Error
1 7,768 6,760.0 1,008.0
2 5,748 6,547.7 -799.7
3 7,617 7,005.0 612.0
4 6,967 6,951.8 15.2
5 7,081 7,145.8 -64.8
6 7,626 6,889.6 736.4
 Figure 3. Rib Eye sales with HW trend (alpha = 0.5)
9,000

8,000
Sales (units)

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000
13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20