CT (Jam) Kapasitas Produksi Demand

t HCT A HCT B No BP
HCT A HCT B HCT A HCT B HCT A
0.082222 0.079167 1 -95 -90 10 1861
2 -87 -79 10 1869
3 -73 -66 10 1883
4 -85 -74 10 1871
5 -90 -81 10 1866
6 -92 -85 10 1864
7 -82 -74 10 1874
8 -58 -55 10 1898
9 -70 -66 10 1886
10 -73 -71 10 1883
11 -62 -54 10 1894
12 -52 -46 10 1904
13 -38 -33 10 1918
14 -52 -48 10 1904
15 -55 -49 10 1901
16 -57 -53 10 1899
17 -33 -31 10 1923
18 -30 -28 10 1926
1946 2021
19 -42 -43 10 1914
20 -45 -44 10 1911
21 -35 -33 10 1921
22 -27 -22 10 1929
23 -21 -18 10 1935
24 -28 -23 10 1928
25 -35 -29 10 1921
26 -30 -35 10 1926
27 -23 -21 10 1933
28 9 12 10 1965
29 7 10 10 1963
30 5 6 10 1961
31 26 42 10 1982
32 33 45 10 1989
33 47 60 10 2003
34 41 55 10 1997
35 38 53 10 1994
36 30 48 10 1986
Total
Persentase
Demand (Unit) Demand (Jam) Trend Siklis
HCT B A B Total
1941 153.0156 153.6625 306.67806 Demand (Jam)
1952 153.6733 154.5333 308.20667
335
1965 154.8244 155.5625 310.38694
1957 153.8378 154.9292 308.76694 330
1950 153.4267 154.375 307.80167
325
1946 153.2622 154.0583 307.32056
1957 154.0844 154.9292 309.01361 320
1976 156.0578 156.4333 312.49111
315
1965 155.0711 155.5625 310.63361

Jumlah
1960 154.8244 155.1667 309.99111 310
1977 155.7289 156.5125 312.24139
305
1985 156.5511 157.1458 313.69694
1998 157.7022 158.175 315.87722 300
1983 156.5511 156.9875 313.53861
295
1982 156.3044 156.9083 313.21278
1978 156.14 156.5917 312.73167 290
2000 158.1133 158.3333 316.44667 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

2003 158.36 158.5708 316.93083 Periode

1988 157.3733 157.3833 314.75667
1987 157.1267 157.3042 314.43083
1998 157.9489 158.175 316.12389
2009 158.6067 159.0458 317.6525
2013 159.1 159.3625 318.4625
2008 158.5244 158.9667 317.49111
2002 157.9489 158.4917 316.44056
1996 158.36 158.0167 316.37667
2010 158.9356 159.125 318.06056
2043 161.5667 161.7375 323.30417
2041 161.4022 161.5792 322.98139
2037 161.2378 161.2625 322.50028
2073 162.9644 164.1125 327.07694
2076 163.54 164.35 327.89
2091 164.6911 165.5375 330.22861
2086 164.1978 165.1417 329.33944
2084 163.9511 164.9833 328.93444
2079 163.2933 164.5875 327.88083
5688.298 5707.6 11395.898
49.92% 50.08% 100.00%
 Metode Trend Linear
t Dt
Demand (Jam) 1 306.67805556
2 308.20666667
3 310.38694444
4 308.76694444
5 307.80166667
6 307.32055556
7 309.01361111
8 312.49111111
9 310.63361111
10 309.99111111
11 312.24138889
12 313.69694444
13 315.87722222
14 313.53861111
15 313.21277778
16 312.73166667
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 17 316.44666667
Periode 18 316.93083333
19 314.75666667
20 314.43083333
21 316.12388889
22 317.6525
23 318.4625
24 317.49111111
25 316.44055556
26 316.37666667
27 318.06055556
28 323.30416667
29 322.98138889
30 322.50027778
31 327.07694444
32 327.89
33 330.22861111
34 329.33944444
35 328.93444444
36 327.88083333
Total 666 11395.897778

b 0.6152272987
a 305.17101102

Peramalan
 t Dt'
37 327.93442108
38 328.54964837
39 329.16487567
40 329.78010297
41 330.39533027
42 331.01055757
43 331.62578487
44 332.24101217
45 332.85623947
46 333.47146676
47 334.08669406
48 334.70192136

MAD 1.8237641021
MSE 5.0125029727
MAPE 0.574%
SEE 2.303769973

Metode Trend L
335
330
325
Permintaan 320
315
310
305
300
295
290
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 1
Period

Dt
 Metode Eksponensial
Dt.t t^2 Dt' |e| e^2 |p| t
306.6781 1 305.7862 0.8918172339 0.795338 0.00290799168 1
616.4133 4 306.4015 1.80520104628 3.258751 0.00585711226 2
931.1608 9 307.0167 3.37025152533 11.3586 0.01085822579 3
1235.068 16 307.6319 1.13502422661 1.28828 0.00367599009 4
1539.008 25 308.2471 0.4454808499 0.198453 0.00144729837 5
1843.923 36 308.8624 1.54181925974 2.377207 0.00501697407 6
2163.095 49 309.4776 0.46399100291 0.215288 0.00150152287 7
2499.929 64 310.0928 2.39828169836 5.751755 0.00767471974 8
2795.703 81 310.7081 0.07444560036 0.005542 0.00023965726 9
3099.911 100 311.3233 1.33217289909 1.774685 0.00429745516 10
3434.655 121 311.9385 0.30287757996 0.091735 0.00097001099 11
3764.363 144 312.5537 1.14320583679 1.30692 0.0036443002 12
4106.404 169 313.169 2.70825631584 7.334652 0.00857376261 13
4389.541 196 313.7842 0.245582094 0.060311 0.00078325949 14
4698.192 225 314.3994 1.18664272606 1.408121 0.00378861531 15
5003.707 256 315.0146 2.2829811359 5.212003 0.00730012781 16
5379.593 289 315.6299 0.81679156537 0.667148 0.00258113499 17
5704.755 324 316.2451 0.68573093331 0.470227 0.00216366116 18
5980.377 361 316.8603 2.10366303208 4.425398 0.00668345822 19
6288.617 400 317.4756 3.04472366414 9.270342 0.00968328593 20
6638.602 441 318.0908 1.96689540731 3.868678 0.00622191323 21
6988.355 484 318.706 1.05351159493 1.109887 0.00331655377 22
7324.638 529 319.3212 0.85873889366 0.737432 0.00269651495 23
7619.787 576 319.9365 2.44535508127 5.979761 0.0077021214 24
7911.014 625 320.5517 4.11113793555 16.90146 0.01299181746 25
8225.793 676 321.1669 4.79025412317 22.94653 0.01514098424 26
8587.635 729 321.7821 3.72159253301 13.85025 0.01170089302 27
9052.517 784 322.3974 0.90679127937 0.82227 0.00280476212 28
9366.46 841 323.0126 0.03121379713 0.000974 9.6642711E-05 29
9675.008 900 323.6278 1.12755220697 1.271374 0.0034962829 30
10139.39 961 324.2431 2.83388716097 8.030916 0.00866428285 31
10492.48 1024 324.8583 3.0317154178 9.191298 0.00924613565 32
10897.54 1089 325.4735 4.75509923018 22.61097 0.01439941625 33
11197.54 1156 326.0887 3.25070526479 10.56708 0.00987037939 34
11512.71 1225 326.704 2.23047796606 4.975032 0.00678091943 35
11803.71 1296 327.3192 0.56163955622 0.315439 0.00171293805 36
213214.3 16206 11395.9 65.6555076743 180.4501 0.20649112142 Total 666

b
a

Peramalan
 t
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48

MAD
MSE
MAPE
SEE

Metode Trend Linear

350
340
330

Permintaan
320
310
300
290
3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 1 3 5

Periode

Dt Dt'
Metode Eksponensial
Dt ln Dt ln Dt.t t^2 Dt' |e| e^2 |p|
306.67805556 5.725799 5.725799 1 317.0583 10.38026 107.7498 0.033847
308.20666667 5.730771 11.46154 4 317.6728 9.466127 89.60756 0.030714
310.38694444 5.73782 17.21346 9 318.2885 7.901516 62.43395 0.025457
308.76694444 5.732587 22.93035 16 318.9053 10.13838 102.7867 0.032835
307.80166667 5.729456 28.64728 25 319.5234 11.72171 137.3984 0.038082
307.32055556 5.727891 34.36735 36 320.1426 12.82207 164.4055 0.041722
309.01361111 5.733385 40.1337 49 320.7631 11.74947 138.05 0.038023
312.49111111 5.744576 45.95661 64 321.3847 8.893626 79.09658 0.02846
310.63361111 5.738614 51.64753 81 322.0076 11.37399 129.3676 0.036615
309.99111111 5.736544 57.36544 100 322.6317 12.64055 159.7836 0.040777
312.24138889 5.743777 63.18154 121 323.2569 11.01555 121.3424 0.035279
313.69694444 5.748427 68.98113 144 323.8834 10.18649 103.7645 0.032472
315.87722222 5.755354 74.8196 169 324.5111 8.633912 74.54443 0.027333
313.53861111 5.747923 80.47092 196 325.1401 11.60144 134.5935 0.037002
313.21277778 5.746883 86.20324 225 325.7702 12.55741 157.6887 0.040092
312.73166667 5.745346 91.92553 256 326.4016 13.66989 186.8658 0.043711
316.44666667 5.757155 97.87163 289 327.0341 10.58747 112.0945 0.033457
316.93083333 5.758684 103.6563 324 327.6679 10.73711 115.2856 0.033878
314.75666667 5.7518 109.2842 361 328.303 13.54632 183.5027 0.043037
314.43083333 5.750764 115.0153 400 328.9393 14.50842 210.4942 0.046142
316.12388889 5.756134 120.8788 441 329.5768 13.45286 180.9795 0.042556
317.6525 5.760958 126.7411 484 330.2155 12.56299 157.8287 0.039549
318.4625 5.763505 132.5606 529 330.8555 12.39296 153.5856 0.038915
317.49111111 5.76045 138.2508 576 331.4967 14.00557 196.1559 0.044113
316.44055556 5.757135 143.9284 625 332.1391 15.69858 246.4455 0.04961
316.37666667 5.756933 149.6803 676 332.7828 16.40617 269.1625 0.051856
318.06055556 5.762242 155.5805 729 333.4278 15.36724 236.1519 0.048315
323.30416667 5.778594 161.8006 784 334.074 10.76982 115.9891 0.033312
322.98138889 5.777595 167.5502 841 334.7214 11.74006 137.8289 0.036349
322.50027778 5.776104 173.2831 900 335.3702 12.86987 165.6337 0.039907
327.07694444 5.790195 179.4961 961 336.0201 8.943172 79.98033 0.027343
327.89 5.792678 185.3657 1024 336.6713 8.781341 77.11196 0.026781
330.22861111 5.799785 191.3929 1089 337.3238 7.095217 50.3421 0.021486
329.33944444 5.797089 197.101 1156 337.9776 8.638135 74.61738 0.026229
328.93444444 5.795858 202.855 1225 338.6326 9.698153 94.05418 0.029484
327.88083333 5.79265 208.5354 1296 339.2889 11.40805 130.1437 0.034793
11395.897778 207.2615 3841.859 16206 11809.86 413.9619 4936.867 1.309535

0.0019361768
316.44503086

Peramalan
 Dt'
339.94644505
340.60527908
341.26538996
341.92678018
342.5894522
343.25340852
343.91865162
344.58518399
345.25300814
345.92212657
346.59254178
347.2642563

11.498941744
137.13518918
3.638%
12.049977801

Metode Eksponensial
350
340
330
Permintaan

320
310
300
290
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Periode

Dt Dt'
 Metode Kuadratik
t Dt Dt.t Dt.t^2 t^2 t^3
1 306.67805556 306.6780556 306.6780556 1 1
2 308.20666667 616.4133333 1232.826667 4 8
3 310.38694444 931.1608333 2793.4825 9 27
4 308.76694444 1235.067778 4940.271111 16 64
5 307.80166667 1539.008333 7695.041667 25 125
6 307.32055556 1843.923333 11063.54 36 216
7 309.01361111 2163.095278 15141.66694 49 343
8 312.49111111 2499.928889 19999.43111 64 512
9 310.63361111 2795.7025 25161.3225 81 729
10 309.99111111 3099.911111 30999.11111 100 1000
11 312.24138889 3434.655278 37781.20806 121 1331
12 313.69694444 3764.363333 45172.36 144 1728
13 315.87722222 4106.403889 53383.25056 169 2197
14 313.53861111 4389.540556 61453.56778 196 2744
15 313.21277778 4698.191667 70472.875 225 3375
16 312.73166667 5003.706667 80059.30667 256 4096
17 316.44666667 5379.593333 91453.08667 289 4913
18 316.93083333 5704.755 102685.59 324 5832
19 314.75666667 5980.376667 113627.1567 361 6859
20 314.43083333 6288.616667 125772.3333 400 8000
21 316.12388889 6638.601667 139410.635 441 9261
22 317.6525 6988.355 153743.81 484 10648
23 318.4625 7324.6375 168466.6625 529 12167
24 317.49111111 7619.786667 182874.88 576 13824
25 316.44055556 7911.013889 197775.3472 625 15625
26 316.37666667 8225.793333 213870.6267 676 17576
27 318.06055556 8587.635 231866.145 729 19683
28 323.30416667 9052.516667 253470.4667 784 21952
29 322.98138889 9366.460278 271627.3481 841 24389
30 322.50027778 9675.008333 290250.25 900 27000
31 327.07694444 10139.38528 314320.9436 961 29791
32 327.89 10492.48 335759.36 1024 32768
33 330.22861111 10897.54417 359618.9575 1089 35937
34 329.33944444 11197.54111 380716.3978 1156 39304
35 328.93444444 11512.70556 402944.6944 1225 42875
36 327.88083333 11803.71 424933.56 1296 46656
Total 666 11395.897778 213214.2669 5222844.191 16206 443556

Beta -139860
Alpha -5174820
Teta -3340471.483
Sigma -86045.69
Gamma -203514948
b 0.1336896515
c 0.013014531
a 308.22074946

Peramalan
t Dt'
37 330.98415951
38 332.09393899
39 333.22974752
40 334.39158513
41 335.57945179
42 336.79334751
43 338.0332723
44 339.29922615
45 340.59120906
46 341.90922103
47 343.25326207
48 344.62333217

MAD 1.5010771467
MSE 3.4380966622
MAPE 0.473%
SEE 1.9366597286

Metode Kuadratik
330

320
Permintaan

310

300

290
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Periode

Dt Dt'
 Metode Siklis
t^4 Dt' |e| e^2 |p| t
1 308.367454 1.689398 2.8540659 0.0055087022097 1
16 308.540187 0.33352 0.1112357 0.0010821317375 2
81 308.738949 1.647995 2.7158884 0.0053094863848 3
256 308.963741 0.196796 0.0387287 0.0006373613385 4
625 309.214561 1.412894 1.9962704 0.0045902750841 5
1296 309.49141 2.170855 4.7126111 0.0070638129659 6
2401 309.794289 0.780678 0.609458 0.0025263544905 7
4096 310.123197 2.367914 5.6070189 0.0075775418089 8
6561 310.478133 0.155478 0.0241733 0.0005005182156 9
10000 310.859099 0.867988 0.7534031 0.0028000414488 10
14641 311.266094 0.975295 0.9512004 0.0031235289426 11
20736 311.699118 1.997827 3.9913115 0.006368652107 12
28561 312.158171 3.719052 13.831344 0.0117737250288 13
38416 312.643253 0.895358 0.8016668 0.0028556561323 14
50625 313.154364 0.058414 0.0034122 0.0001864996503 15
65536 313.691504 0.959837 0.9212874 0.003069203578 16
83521 314.254673 2.191994 4.8048363 0.0069268976605 17
104976 314.843871 2.086962 4.3554108 0.0065849134431 18
130321 315.459099 0.702432 0.4934105 0.0022316663468 19
160000 316.100355 1.669522 2.7873022 0.0053096623407 20
194481 316.76764 0.643751 0.4144159 0.0020363896698 21
234256 317.460955 0.191545 0.0366896 0.0006030023521 22
279841 318.180298 0.282202 0.0796378 0.000886137796 23
331776 318.925671 1.43456 2.0579619 0.0045184252081 24
390625 319.697073 3.256517 10.604903 0.0102910863004 25
456976 320.494503 4.117837 16.956579 0.0130156143664 26
531441 321.317963 3.257408 10.610704 0.0102414698613 27
614656 322.167452 1.136715 1.2921202 0.0035159295106 28
707281 323.04297 0.061581 0.0037922 0.0001906643487 29
810000 323.944517 1.444239 2.0858267 0.0044782570051 30
923521 324.872093 2.204851 4.8613701 0.0067410789208 31
1048576 325.825698 2.064302 4.2613425 0.0062957148628 32
1185921 326.805332 3.423279 11.718838 0.0103663909649 33
1336336 327.810995 1.528449 2.3361563 0.0046409533409 34
1500625 328.842688 0.091757 0.0084193 0.0002789513401 35
1679616 329.900409 2.019576 4.0786863 0.0061594809902 36
12948594 11395.8978 54.03878 123.77148 0.1702861777525 Total 666

a
b
c
 Peramalan
t
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48

MAD
MSE
MAPE
SEE

400

300

Permintaan
200

100

0
1 3 5 7 9

31 33 35
Metode Siklis
Dt sin(2πt/n) cos(2πt/n) Dt.sin(2πt/n) Dt.cos(2πt/n) sin^2(2πt/n) cos^2(2πt/n)
306.6780556 0.5877853 0.80901699 180.260838257 248.107758746 0.34549150281 0.65450849719
308.2066667 0.9510565 0.30901699 293.121958699 95.2410977797 0.90450849719 0.09549150281
310.3869444 0.9510565 -0.309017 295.195526087 -95.914840665 0.90450849719 0.09549150281
308.7669444 0.5877853 -0.809017 181.48865634 -249.79770536 0.34549150281 0.65450849719
307.8016667 0.0000000 -1 3.7694833E-14 -307.80166667 1.4997598E-32 1
307.3205556 -0.5877853 -0.809017 -180.63849028 -248.62755217 0.34549150281 0.65450849719
309.0136111 -0.9510565 -0.309017 -293.88940847 -95.490457327 0.90450849719 0.09549150281
312.4911111 -0.9510565 0.30901699 -297.19670751 96.5650639244 0.90450849719 0.09549150281
310.6336111 -0.5877853 0.80901699 -182.58585548 251.307870413 0.34549150281 0.65450849719
309.9911111 0.0000000 1 -7.592592E-14 309.991111111 5.9990391E-32 1
312.2413889 0.5877853 0.80901699 183.530883544 252.608589958 0.34549150281 0.65450849719
313.6969444 0.9510565 0.30901699 298.343523156 96.9376869168 0.90450849719 0.09549150281
315.8772222 0.9510565 -0.309017 300.417090544 -97.611429803 0.90450849719 0.09549150281
313.5386111 0.5877853 -0.809017 184.293371635 -253.65806478 0.34549150281 0.65450849719
313.2127778 0.0000000 -1 1.1507251E-13 -313.21277778 1.3497838E-31 1
312.7316667 -0.5877853 -0.809017 -183.81906159 -253.00523301 0.34549150281 0.65450849719
316.4466667 -0.9510565 -0.309017 -300.95866439 -97.787397813 0.90450849719 0.09549150281
316.9308333 -0.9510565 0.30901699 -301.41913426 97.9370135414 0.90450849719 0.09549150281
314.7566667 -0.5877853 0.80901699 -185.00932673 254.643492426 0.34549150281 0.65450849719
314.4308333 0.0000000 1 -1.540267E-13 314.430833333 2.3996157E-31 1
316.1238889 0.5877853 0.80901699 185.812959786 255.749598439 0.34549150281 0.65450849719
317.6525 0.9510565 0.30901699 302.105480042 98.1600208057 0.90450849719 0.09549150281
318.4625 0.9510565 -0.309017 302.875835821 -98.410324571 0.90450849719 0.09549150281
317.4911111 0.5877853 -0.809017 186.616592845 -256.85570445 0.34549150281 0.65450849719
316.4405556 0.0000000 -1 1.9376396E-13 -316.44055556 3.7493995E-31 1
316.3766667 -0.5877853 -0.809017 -185.96153884 -255.95409996 0.34549150281 0.65450849719
318.0605556 -0.9510565 -0.309017 -302.49356394 -98.286116907 0.90450849719 0.09549150281
323.3041667 -0.9510565 0.30901699 -307.48053445 99.9064818522 0.90450849719 0.09549150281
322.9813889 -0.5877853 0.80901699 -189.84369715 261.297432478 0.34549150281 0.65450849719
322.5002778 0.0000000 1 -2.369694E-13 322.500277778 5.3991352E-31 1
327.0769444 0.5877853 0.80901699 192.251004309 264.610806524 0.34549150281 0.65450849719
327.89 0.9510565 0.30901699 311.841921128 101.323582286 0.90450849719 0.09549150281
330.2286111 0.9510565 -0.309017 314.066072464 -102.04625286 0.90450849719 0.09549150281
329.3394444 0.5877853 -0.809017 193.580868443 -266.44120747 0.34549150281 0.65450849719
328.9344444 0.0000000 -1 2.8197996E-13 -328.93444444 7.3488229E-31 1
327.8808333 -0.5877853 -0.809017 -192.72351834 -265.2611663 0.34549150281 0.65450849719
11395.89778 2.48989828 -1.809017 801.783081671 -580.21827958 17.8454915028 18.1545084972

316.552716
44.92916777
-31.96001036
Peramalan
Dt'
283.6987246
263.9463519
264.2878223
284.5927057
317.1052267
349.4067075
369.1590802
368.8176098
348.5127264
316.0002054
283.6987246
263.9463519

33.83530314
1476.297624
10.697%
40.13111635

Metode Siklis
400

300
Permintaan

200

100

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Periode

Dt Dt'
 Metode Trend
sin(2πt/n).cos(2πt/n) Dt' |e| e^2 |p| t
0.475528258147577 317.10522674 10.42717 108.7259 0.034 1
0.293892626146237 349.40670749 41.20004 1697.443 0.133677 2
-0.293892626146237 369.15908017 58.77214 3454.164 0.189351 3
-0.475528258147577 368.81760978 60.05067 3606.082 0.194485 4
-1.224646799147E-16 348.51272641 40.71106 1657.39 0.132264 5
0.475528258147577 316.00020535 8.67965 75.33632 0.028243 6
0.293892626146237 283.69872461 25.31489 640.8435 0.081922 7
-0.293892626146236 263.94635193 48.54476 2356.594 0.155348 8
-0.475528258147577 264.28782232 46.34579 2147.932 0.149198 9
-2.449293598295E-16 284.59270569 25.39841 645.079 0.081933 10
0.475528258147577 317.10522674 4.863838 23.65692 0.015577 11
0.293892626146237 349.40670749 35.70976 1275.187 0.113835 12
-0.293892626146236 369.15908017 53.28186 2838.956 0.168679 13
-0.475528258147577 368.81760978 55.279 3055.768 0.176307 14
-3.673940397442E-16 348.51272641 35.29995 1246.086 0.112703 15
0.475528258147577 316.00020535 3.268539 10.68335 0.010452 16
0.293892626146237 283.69872461 32.74794 1072.428 0.103486 17
-0.293892626146236 263.94635193 52.98448 2807.355 0.16718 18
-0.475528258147577 264.28782232 50.46884 2547.104 0.160342 19
-4.898587196589E-16 284.59270569 29.83813 890.3139 0.094896 20
0.475528258147577 317.10522674 0.981338 0.963024 0.003104 21
0.293892626146236 349.40670749 31.75421 1008.33 0.099965 22
-0.293892626146235 369.15908017 50.69658 2570.143 0.159192 23
-0.475528258147577 368.81760978 51.3265 2634.409 0.161663 24
-6.123233995737E-16 348.51272641 32.07217 1028.624 0.101353 25
0.475528258147577 316.00020535 0.376461 0.141723 0.00119 26
0.293892626146237 283.69872461 34.36183 1180.735 0.108035 27
-0.293892626146236 263.94635193 59.35781 3523.35 0.183597 28
-0.475528258147577 264.28782232 58.69357 3444.935 0.181724 29
-7.347880794884E-16 284.59270569 37.90757 1436.984 0.117543 30
0.475528258147577 317.10522674 9.971718 99.43515 0.030487 31
0.293892626146237 349.40670749 21.51671 462.9687 0.065622 32
-0.293892626146236 369.15908017 38.93047 1515.581 0.117889 33
-0.475528258147577 368.81760978 39.47817 1558.526 0.119871 34
-8.572527594031E-16 348.51272641 19.57828 383.3091 0.05952 35
0.475528258147577 316.00020535 11.88063 141.1493 0.036235 36
0.475528258147576 11565.583037 1218.071 53146.71 3.850868 Total 666

a
b
c
d
Peramalan
t
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48

MAD
MSE
MAPE
SEE
Metode Trend Siklis
Dt Dt.t sin(2πt/n) cos(2πt/n) t^2 t.sin(2πt/n)
306.678055556 306.678055556 0.5877853 0.80901699437 1 0.58778525229
308.206666667 616.413333333 0.9510565 0.30901699437 4 1.90211303259
310.386944444 931.160833333 0.9510565 -0.3090169944 9 2.85316954889
308.766944444 1235.06777778 0.5877853 -0.8090169944 16 2.35114100917
307.801666667 1539.00833333 0.0000000 -1 25 6.123234E-16
307.320555556 1843.92333333 -0.5877853 -0.8090169944 36 -3.5267115138
309.013611111 2163.09527778 -0.9510565 -0.3090169944 49 -6.6573956141
312.491111111 2499.92888889 -0.9510565 0.30901699437 64 -7.6084521304
310.633611111 2795.7025 -0.5877853 0.80901699437 81 -5.2900672706
309.991111111 3099.91111111 0.0000000 1 100 -2.449294E-15
312.241388889 3434.65527778 0.5877853 0.80901699437 121 6.46563777522
313.696944444 3764.36333333 0.9510565 0.30901699437 144 11.4126781955
315.877222222 4106.40388889 0.9510565 -0.3090169944 169 12.3637347118
313.538611111 4389.54055556 0.5877853 -0.8090169944 196 8.22899353209
313.212777778 4698.19166667 0.0000000 -1 225 5.5109106E-15
312.731666667 5003.70666667 -0.5877853 -0.8090169944 256 -9.4045640367
316.446666667 5379.59333333 -0.9510565 -0.3090169944 289 -16.167960777
316.930833333 5704.755 -0.9510565 0.30901699437 324 -17.119017293
314.756666667 5980.37666667 -0.5877853 0.80901699437 361 -11.167919794
314.430833333 6288.61666667 0.0000000 1 400 -9.797174E-15
316.123888889 6638.60166667 0.5877853 0.80901699437 441 12.3434902981
317.6525 6988.355 0.9510565 0.30901699437 484 20.9232433585
318.4625 7324.6375 0.9510565 -0.3090169944 529 21.8742998748
317.491111111 7619.78666667 0.5877853 -0.8090169944 576 14.106846055
316.440555556 7911.01388889 0.0000000 -1 625 1.5308085E-14
316.376666667 8225.79333333 -0.5877853 -0.8090169944 676 -15.28241656
318.060555556 8587.635 -0.9510565 -0.3090169944 729 -25.67852594
323.304166667 9052.51666667 -0.9510565 0.30901699437 784 -26.629582456
322.981388889 9366.46027778 -0.5877853 0.80901699437 841 -17.045772316
322.500277778 9675.00833333 0.0000000 1 900 -2.204364E-14
327.076944444 10139.3852778 0.5877853 0.80901699437 961 18.2213428211
327.89 10492.48 0.9510565 0.30901699437 1024 30.4338085214
330.228611111 10897.5441667 0.9510565 -0.3090169944 1089 31.3848650377
329.339444444 11197.5411111 0.5877853 -0.8090169944 1156 19.9846985779
328.934444444 11512.7055556 0.0000000 -1 1225 3.0003847E-14
327.880833333 11803.71 -0.5877853 -0.8090169944 1296 -21.160269083
11395.8977778 213214.266944 2.4898982849 -1.80902 16206 33

304.9653
0.6218
0.1773
1.2243
Peramalan
sin(2πt/n) cos(2πt/n) Dt'
-0.9510565163 -0.3090169944 326.75273279
-0.9510565163 0.30901699437 327.48411022
-0.5877852523 0.80901699437 328.63931323
-9.797174E-16 1 330.0146
0.58778525229 0.80901699437 331.3221642
0.9510565163 0.30901699437 332.30006721
0.9510565163 -0.3090169944 332.81228978
0.58778525229 -0.8090169944 332.90068677
1.1021821E-15 -1 332.769
-0.5877852523 -0.8090169944 332.7050358
-0.9510565163 -0.3090169944 332.97073279
-0.9510565163 0.30901699437 333.70211022

1.74971922392
4.24784354479
0.550%
2.15267534472

Metode Trend Siklis

335
330
325
320
Permintaan

315
310
305
300
295
290
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
Periode

Dt' Dt
 t.cos(2πt/n) Dt.sin(2πt/n) Dt.cos(2πt/n) sin^2(2πt/n) cos^2(2πt/n) sin(2πt/n).cos(2πt/n)
0.80901699437 180.260838257 248.107758746 0.3454915028 0.6545084972 0.475528258147577
0.61803398875 293.121958699 95.2410977797 0.9045084972 0.0954915028 0.293892626146237
-0.9270509831 295.195526087 -95.914840665 0.9045084972 0.0954915028 -0.293892626146237
-3.2360679775 181.48865634 -249.79770536 0.3454915028 0.6545084972 -0.475528258147577
-5 3.7694833E-14 -307.80166667 1.49976E-32 1 -1.224646799147E-16
-4.8541019662 -180.63849028 -248.62755217 0.3454915028 0.6545084972 0.475528258147577
-2.1631189606 -293.88940847 -95.490457327 0.9045084972 0.0954915028 0.293892626146237
2.472135955 -297.19670751 96.5650639244 0.9045084972 0.0954915028 -0.293892626146236
7.28115294937 -182.58585548 251.307870413 0.3454915028 0.6545084972 -0.475528258147577
10 -7.592592E-14 309.991111111 5.999039E-32 1 -2.449293598295E-16
8.89918693812 183.530883544 252.608589958 0.3454915028 0.6545084972 0.475528258147577
3.7082039325 298.343523156 96.9376869168 0.9045084972 0.0954915028 0.293892626146237
-4.0172209269 300.417090544 -97.611429803 0.9045084972 0.0954915028 -0.293892626146236
-11.326237921 184.293371635 -253.65806478 0.3454915028 0.6545084972 -0.475528258147577
-15 1.1507251E-13 -313.21277778 1.349784E-31 1 -3.673940397442E-16
-12.94427191 -183.81906159 -253.00523301 0.3454915028 0.6545084972 0.475528258147577
-5.2532889044 -300.95866439 -97.787397813 0.9045084972 0.0954915028 0.293892626146237
5.56230589875 -301.41913426 97.9370135414 0.9045084972 0.0954915028 -0.293892626146236
15.3713228931 -185.00932673 254.643492426 0.3454915028 0.6545084972 -0.475528258147577
20 -1.540267E-13 314.430833333 2.399616E-31 1 -4.898587196589E-16
16.9893568819 185.812959786 255.749598439 0.3454915028 0.6545084972 0.475528258147577
6.79837387625 302.105480042 98.1600208057 0.9045084972 0.0954915028 0.293892626146236
-7.1073908706 302.875835821 -98.410324571 0.9045084972 0.0954915028 -0.293892626146235
-19.416407865 186.616592845 -256.85570445 0.3454915028 0.6545084972 -0.475528258147577
-25 1.9376396E-13 -316.44055556 3.749399E-31 1 -6.123233995737E-16
-21.034441854 -185.96153884 -255.95409996 0.3454915028 0.6545084972 0.475528258147577
-8.3434588481 -302.49356394 -98.286116907 0.9045084972 0.0954915028 0.293892626146237
8.6524758425 -307.48053445 99.9064818522 0.9045084972 0.0954915028 -0.293892626146236
23.4614928369 -189.84369715 261.297432478 0.3454915028 0.6545084972 -0.475528258147577
30 -2.369694E-13 322.500277778 5.399135E-31 1 -7.347880794884E-16
25.0795268256 192.251004309 264.610806524 0.3454915028 0.6545084972 0.475528258147577
9.88854382 311.841921128 101.323582286 0.9045084972 0.0954915028 0.293892626146237
-10.197560814 314.066072464 -102.04625286 0.9045084972 0.0954915028 -0.293892626146236
-27.506577809 193.580868443 -266.44120747 0.3454915028 0.6545084972 -0.475528258147577
-35 2.8197996E-13 -328.93444444 7.348823E-31 1 -8.572527594031E-16
-29.124611797 -192.72351834 -265.2611663 0.3454915028 0.6545084972 0.475528258147577
-52 801.783081671 -580.21827958 17.845491503 18.154508497 0.475528258147576
Metode Trend Siklis

9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Periode

Dt' Dt
 Metode Terpilih
Dt' |e| e^2 |p| Metode
Perbandingan
306.4502 0.227891 0.051934 0.000743 Trend Linear Eksponensial
307.4281 0.778599 0.606217 0.002526 MAD 1.8238 11.4989
307.9403 2.446655 5.986119 0.007883 MSE 5.0125 137.1352
308.0287 0.738258 0.545024 0.002391 MAPE 0.57% 3.64%
307.897 0.095333 0.009088 0.00031 SEE 2.3038 12.0500
307.833 0.51248 0.262636 0.001668
308.0987 0.914878 0.837002 0.002961
308.8301 3.661001 13.40293 0.011716
309.9853 0.648298 0.42029 0.002087
311.3606 1.369489 1.8755 0.004418
312.6682 0.426775 0.182137 0.001367
313.6461 0.050877 0.002588 0.000162
314.1583 1.718932 2.954729 0.005442
314.2467 0.708076 0.501371 0.002258
314.115 0.902222 0.814005 0.002881
314.051 1.319369 1.740735 0.004219
314.3167 2.129934 4.536618 0.006731
315.0481 1.882723 3.544646 0.00594
316.2033 1.446647 2.092786 0.004596
317.5786 3.147767 9.908435 0.010011
318.8862 2.762275 7.630165 0.008738
319.8641 2.211567 4.89103 0.006962
320.3763 1.91379 3.662591 0.006009
320.4647 2.973576 8.842152 0.009366
320.333 3.892444 15.15112 0.012301
320.269 3.892369 15.15054 0.012303
320.5347 2.474177 6.121553 0.007779
321.2661 2.038056 4.153674 0.006304
322.4213 0.560076 0.313685 0.001734
323.7966 1.296322 1.680451 0.00402
325.1042 1.97278 3.891862 0.006032
326.0821 1.807933 3.268621 0.005514
326.5943 3.634321 13.20829 0.011005
326.6827 2.656758 7.058361 0.008067
326.551 2.383444 5.680807 0.007246
326.487 1.393798 1.942672 0.004251
11395.6 62.98989 152.9224 0.197938
 Verifikasi
Metode t e MR
Kuadratik Siklis Trend Siklis 1 1.689398 -
1.5011 33.8353 1.7497 2 0.33352 1.3559
3.4381 1476.2976 4.2478 3 -1.648 1.982
0.47% 10.697% 0.55% 4 0.196796 1.845
1.9367 40.1311 2.1527 5 1.412894 1.216
6 2.170855 0.758
7 0.780678 1.390
8 -2.36791 3.149
9 -0.15548 2.212
10 0.867988 1.023
11 -0.9753 1.843
12 -1.99783 1.023
13 -3.71905 1.721
14 -0.89536 2.824
15 -0.05841 0.837
16 0.959837 1.018
17 -2.19199 3.152
18 -2.08696 0.105
19 0.702432 2.789
20 1.669522 0.967
21 0.643751 1.026
22 -0.19155 0.835
23 -0.2822 0.091
24 1.43456 1.717
25 3.256517 1.822
26 4.117837 0.861
27 3.257408 0.860
28 -1.13671 4.394
29 0.061581 1.198
30 1.444239 1.383
31 -2.20485 3.649
32 -2.0643 0.141
33 -3.42328 1.359
34 -1.52845 1.895
35 -0.09176 1.437
36 2.019576 2.111

Moving
5
4
3
2
1
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1
 Moving
5
4
3
2
1
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5

e CL
Daerah A Daerah A (-)
 Mean MR CL UCL LCL Daerah A Daerah A (-) Daerah B
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1
1.600 0 4 -4 3 -3 1

Moving Range

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
 Moving Range

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

e CL UCL LCL
Daerah A Daerah A (-) Daerah B Daerah B (-)
 Disagregasi
Daerah B (-) Peramalan (Jam) Peramalan (Unit)
t Dt'
-1 HCT A HCT B HCT A HCT B
-1 37 330.98416 165.21177 165.7723880687 2009 2094
-1 38 332.09394 165.76572 166.3282176722 2016 2101
-1 39 333.22975 166.33266 166.8970838505 2023 2108
-1 40 334.39159 166.9126 167.4789866036 2030 2116
-1 41 335.57945 167.50553 168.0739259316 2037 2123
-1 42 336.79335 168.11145 168.6819018344 2045 2131
-1 43 338.03327 168.73036 169.3029143121 2052 2139
-1 44 339.29923 169.36226 169.9369633646 2060 2147
-1 45 340.59121 170.00716 170.584048992 2068 2155
-1 46 341.90922 170.66505 171.2441711942 2076 2163
-1 47 343.25326 171.33593 171.9173299713 2084 2172
-1 48 344.62333 172.01981 172.6035253232 2092 2180
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1