Devoir libre :

L'objectif de l'exercice :
Calculer les précipitations moyennes annuelles de périodes de retour 10, 20 et 100.

DATE Pluie MAX jour Question 1 :

4/4/1905 153
4/4/1905 69 la distribution expérimentale
10/24/1922 59
11/28/1923 68
3/1/1925 108
12/22/1925 52
10/21/1926 84
12/24/1927 108
3/8/1929 71
2/1/1930 46
3/15/1931 51
4/3/1932 109
12/4/1932 52
10/21/1933 63
11/4/1934 79
1/19/1936 105
1/26/1937 59
10/25/1937 79
12/11/1938 61
2/3/1940 77
2/12/1941 75
1/13/1942 52
10/26/1942 58
10/31/1943 36
11/1/1944 40
12/18/1945 65
1/6/1947 81
11/30/1947 59
12/11/1948 74
12/29/1949 80
3/10/1951 40
11/8/1951 50
 2/5/1953 59
3/13/1954 66
1/5/1955 66
11/4/1955 71
9/23/1956 77
12/11/1957 100
12/16/1958 34
1/9/1960 68
2/17/1961 47
3/18/1962 48
1/3/1963 54
12/14/1963 54
3/10/1965 65
2/20/1966 53
11/6/1966 45
11/8/1967 66
11/15/1968 64
1/13/1970 88
4/2/1971 52
1/14/1972 55
11/27/1972 43
4/16/1982 17
Question 2 :

L'ajustement statistique :

Par la loi Normale :

T q XT Ecart-type Intervalle de confiance

10000.0 0.9999 151 8.80 133 - 168
2000.0 0.9995 141 7.92 125 - 156
1000.0 0.9990 136 7.51 122 - 151
200.0 0.9950 125 6.49 112 - 137
100.0 0.9900 119 6.01 107 - 131
50.0 0.9800 113 5.50 102 - 123
20.0 0.9500 103 4.78 93.9 - 113
10.0 0.9000 95. 4.20 86.8 - 103
5.0 0.8000 85. 3.62 77.9 - 92.1
3.0 0.6667 75. 3.24 69.3 - 82.0
2.0 0.5000 65. 3.10 59.8 - 71.9
1.4286 0.3000 53. 3.31 47.4 - 60.4
1.2500 0.2000 46. 3.62 39.6 - 53.8
1.1111 0.1000 36. 4.20 28.4 - 44.9
1.0526 0.0500 28. 4.78 19.0 - 37.7
1.0204 0.0200 19. 5.50 8.24 - 29.8
1.0101 0.0100 12. 6.01 1.03 - 24.6
1.0050 0.0050 7.1 6.49 -5.59 - 19.9
1.0010 0.0010 - 4.5 7.51 -19.3 - 10.1
1.0005 0.0005 -9.1 7.92 -24.7 - 6.37
1.0001 0.0001 -18. 8.80 -36.2 --1.67

La loi de Gumbel :

T q XT Ecart-type Intervalle de confiance

10000.0 0.9999 230 19.8 191 - 269
2000.0 0.9995 199 16.5 167 - 232
1000.0 0.9990 186 15.1 157 - 216
200.0 0.9950 156 11.9 133 - 179
100.0 0.9900 143 10.5 122 - 163
50.0 0.9800 129 9.15 112 - 147
20.0 0.9500 112 7.35 97.4 - 126
10.0 0.9000 98.2 5.99 86.4 - 110
5.0 0.8000 84.0 4.66 74.8 - 93.1
 3.0 0.6667 72.7 3.71 65.4 - 79.9
2.0 0.5000 62.5 3.02 56.6 - 68.4
1.4286 0.3000 52.1 2.61 46.9 - 57.2
1.2500 0.2000 46.6 2.58 41.5 - 51.6
1.1111 0.1000 39.8 2.72 34.5 - 45.1
1.0526 0.0500 34.8 2.94 29.0 - 40.6
1.0204 0.0200 29.8 3.24 23.4 - 36.1
1.0101 0.0100 26.7 3.45 19.9 - 33.4
1.0050 0.0050 24.0 3.64 16.9 - 31.2
1.0010 0.0010 19.0 4.04 11.1 - 26.9
1.0005 0.0005 17.2 4.20 8.96 - 25.4
1.0001 0.0001 13.5 4.51 4.70 - 22.4

La loi de Galton
T q XT Ecart-type Intervalle de confiance
10000.0 0.9999 228 30.7 168 - 288
2000.0 0.9995 196 23.8 149 - 243
1000.0 0.9990 183 21.0 142 - 224
200.0 0.9950 153 15.2 123 - 183
100.0 0.9900 140 12.9 115 - 165
50.0 0.9800 127 10.7 106 - 148
20.0 0.9500 110 8.08 94.5 - 126
10.0 0.9000 97.2 6.26 85.0 - 110
5.0 0.8000 83.4 4.62 74.3 - 92.4
3.0 0.6667 72.3 3.59 65.2 - 79.3
2.0 0.5000 62.2 2.95 56.4 - 68.0
1.4286 0.3000 51.8 2.63 46.6 - 56.9
1.2500 0.2000 46.4 2.57 41.3 - 51.4
1.1111 0.1000 39.8 2.56 34.7 - 44.8
1.0526 0.0500 35.0 2.56 30.0 - 40.1
1.0204 0.0200 30.4 2.56 25.4 - 35.4
1.0101 0.0100 27.6 2.54 22.6 - 32.6
1.0050 0.0050 25.3 2.52 20.4 - 30.2
1.0010 0.0010 21.2 2.43 16.4 - 25.9
1.0005 0.0005 19.7 2.39 15.0 - 24.4
1.0001 0.0001 17.0 2.29 12.5 - 21.5

La Loi GEV
T q XT Ecart-type Intervalle de confiance
10000.0 0.9999 189 46.3 N/D
2000.0 0.9995 171 33.4 N/D
1000.0 0.9990 163 28.3 107 - 218
200.0 0.9950 141 17.9 106 - 177
100.0 0.9900 132 14.1 104 - 159
50.0 0.9800 122 10.8 100 - 143
 20.0 0.9500 107 7.37 92.9 - 122
10.0 0.9000 95.8 5.48 85.0 - 107
5.0 0.8000 83.2 4.21 74.9 - 91.4
3.0 0.6667 72.8 3.54 65.8 - 79.7
2.0 0.5000 63.1 3.09 57.0 - 69.1
1.4286 0.3000 52.8 2.73 47.4 - 58.1
1.2500 0.2000 47.3 2.66 42.0 - 52.5
1.1111 0.1000 40.3 2.81 34.8 - 45.8
1.0526 0.0500 35.1 3.16 28.9 - 41.3
1.0204 0.0200 29.7 3.73 22.4 - 37.0
1.0101 0.0100 26.4 4.18 18.2 - 34.6
1.0050 0.0050 23.5 4.63 14.4 - 32.6
1.0010 0.0010 18.0 5.64 6.91 - 29.0
1.0005 0.0005 16.0 6.04 4.10 - 27.8
1.0001 0.0001 11.9 6.93 -1.71 - 25.5

Question 3 :

Choix de la loi qui s'ajuste mieux :

Question 4: Ajustement manuel par la loi du Gumbel

Rang i Pmaxj F2 F2
1 17 0.00909091 0.00909091
2 34 0.02727273 0.02727273
3 36 0.04545455 0.04545455
4 40 0.06363636 0.06363636
5 40 0.08181818 0.08181818
6 43 0.1 0.1
7 45 0.11818182 0.11818182
8 46 0.13636364 0.13636364
9 47 0.15454545 0.15454545
10 48 0.17272727 0.17272727
11 50 0.19090909 0.19090909
12 51 0.20909091 0.20909091
13 52 0.22727273 0.22727273
14 52 0.24545455 0.24545455
15 52 0.26363636 0.26363636
16 52 0.28181818 0.28181818
17 53 0.3 0.3
18 54 0.31818182 0.31818182
19 54 0.33636364 0.33636364
20 55 0.35454545 0.35454545
21 58 0.37272727 0.37272727
22 59 0.39090909 0.39090909
23 59 0.40909091 0.40909091
24 59 0.42727273 0.42727273
25 59 0.44545455 0.44545455
26 61 0.46363636 0.46363636
27 63 0.48181818 0.48181818
28 64 0.5 0.5
29 65 0.51818182 0.51818182
30 65 0.53636364 0.53636364
31 66 0.55454545 0.55454545
32 66 0.57272727 0.57272727
33 66 0.59090909 0.59090909
34 68 0.60909091 0.60909091
35 68 0.62727273 0.62727273
36 69 0.64545455 0.64545455
37 71 0.66363636 0.66363636
38 71 0.68181818 0.68181818
39 74 0.7 0.7
40 75 0.71818182 0.71818182
41 77 0.73636364 0.73636364
42 77 0.75454545 0.75454545
43 79 0.77272727 0.77272727
44 79 0.79090909 0.79090909
45 80 0.80909091 0.80909091
46 81 0.82727273 0.82727273
47 84 0.84545455 0.84545455
48 88 0.86363636 0.86363636
49 100 0.88181818 0.88181818
50 105 0.9 0.9
51 108 0.91818182 0.91818182
52 108 0.93636364 0.93636364
53 109 0.95454545 0.95454545
54 153 0.97272727 0.97272727
 Réalisé par :
Fadoua EL HANAFI 2GC4
Hasna ZAHRI 2GC3
Fatima-ezzahrae OUCHAIN 2GC3

distribution expérimentale :
D'après les critères de comparaison BIC et AIC , on remarque que les
 lois : Normale , Gumbel et Galton s'ajustent mieux .

Pjmax
T Normale Gumbel
100.0 119 143
20.0 103 112
10.0 95. 98.

Y(F) X(F) N 55
-1.54766471 14.826946 moyenne 43
-1.28145262 18.3569182 Ecart type 17
-1.1285084 20.3849586 Cv 54
-1.01326143 21.9131334 Max 65.8
-0.9175922 23.1817074 min 22.8
-0.83403245 24.2897098 P. MAX jour 0.3
-0.75871533 25.2884147 mm 153
-0.68935508 26.2081316
-0.62447588 27.0684299
-0.56306206 27.882777
-0.50437965 28.6609058
-0.44787697 29.4101313
-0.39312565 30.1361339 Chart Title
-0.33978353 30.8434503
180
-0.28757047 31.5357956
160
-0.23625179 32.2162813
140
-0.18562676 32.8875692
-0.13552018 33.5519824 120

-0.0857762 34.2115876 100

-0.03625355 34.868258 80

0.01317815 35.5237223 60

0.06264139 36.1796048 40

0.11225324 36.837458 20
0.16212752 37.4987909 0
 60
40
20
0
0.21237664 38.1650942
0.26311339 38.8378636
0.31445262 39.5186218
0.36651292 40.2089413
0.41941836 40.9104674
0.47330038 41.6249431
0.52829991 42.3542368
0.58456969 43.1003741
0.64227709 43.8655743
0.70160737 44.6522938
0.76276769 45.4632796
0.82599198 46.3016336
0.89154708 47.1708943
0.95974052 48.0751393
1.03093043 49.0191175
1.10553868 50.0084229
1.18406819 51.0497241
1.26712648 52.1510771
1.35545828 53.3223568
1.44999165 54.5758693
1.55190514 55.9272422
1.66272868 57.3967623
1.78450064 59.0114585
1.92002379 60.8084955
2.07330531 62.8410084
2.25036733 65.1888508
2.46087944 67.9802414
2.72187466 71.4410379
3.06787262 76.0289709
3.58807417 82.9268435
on BIC et AIC , on remarque que les trois
s'ajustent mieux .

Pjmax
Galton Valeur moyenne
140 134
110 108.33333333333
97.2 96.8

1/a 13.26
X0 35.34898

Chart Title