Suavizacion

Demanda Promedio Exponencial Regresión

Mes (unidades) Movil k=3 Error simple (alpha=0.2) Error Lineal Error
1 524 524.0 453.7 70.3
2 380 524.0 144.0 446.4 66.4
3 250 495.2 245.2 439.2 189.2
4 432 384.7 47.3 446.2 14.2 431.9 0.1
5 526 354.0 172.0 443.3 82.7 424.6 101.4
6 322 402.7 80.7 459.9 137.9 417.4 95.4
7 836 426.7 409.3 432.3 403.7 410.1 425.9
8 277 561.3 284.3 513.0 236.0 402.9 125.9
9 154 478.3 324.3 465.8 311.8 395.6 241.6
10 644 422.3 221.7 403.5 240.5 388.3 255.7
11 424 358.3 65.7 451.6 27.6 381.1 42.9
12 196 407.3 211.3 446.1 250.1 373.8 177.8
13 SUMA 1816.7 2093.6 366.5 1792.5
PROMEDIO 201.9 190.3 149.4

Y=a+bX
a= 460.95
b= -7.26
 Suavizacion
Exponencial
Promedio simple Regresión
BIMESTRE UNIDADES A Movil k=3 Error (alpha=0.2) Error Lineal
1 550 550 596.5
2 500 540.0 40.0 630.1
3 650 562.0 88.0 663.8
4 600 566.7 33.3 569.6 30.4 697.5
5 900 583.3 316.7 635.7 264.3 731.2
6 700 716.7 16.7 648.5 51.5 764.9
7 850 733.3 116.7 688.8 161.2 798.5
8 800 816.7 16.7 711.1 88.9 832.2
9 950 783.3 166.7 758.9 191.1 865.9
10 900 866.7 33.3 787.1 112.9 899.6
11 1200 883.3 316.7 869.7 330.3 933.2
12 1000 1016.7 16.7 895.7 104.3 966.9
13 1150 1033.3 116.7 946.6 203.4 1000.6
14 1100 1116.7 16.7 977.3 122.7 1034.3
15 1250 1083.3 166.7 1031.8 218.2 1067.9
16 120 1166.7 1046.7 849.5 729.5 1101.6
17 1500 823.3 676.7 979.6 520.4 1135.3
18 1169.0
SUMA 3056.7 3257.2
PROMEDIO 218.3 203.6
Error
46.5 Suavizacion
Exponencial
130.1 Promedio simple
13.8 A 562.79 UNIDADES B Movil k=3 Error (alpha=0.2) Error
97.5 B 33.68 425 425
168.8 500 425.0 75.0
64.9 600 440.0 160.0
51.5 700 508.3 191.7 472.0 228.0
32.2 800 600.0 200.0 517.6 282.4
84.1 900 700.0 200.0 574.1 325.9
0.4 1050 800.0 250.0 639.3 410.7
266.8 1200 916.7 283.3 721.4 478.6
33.1 1350 1050.0 300.0 817.1 532.9
149.4 1550 1200.0 350.0 923.7 626.3
65.7 1800 1366.7 433.3 1049.0 751.0
182.1 2000 1566.7 433.3 1199.2 800.8
981.6 2300 1783.3 516.7 1359.3 940.7
364.7 2650 2033.3 616.7 1547.5 1102.5
3000 2316.7 683.3 1768.0 1232.0
2733.2 3500 2650.0 850.0 2014.4 1485.6
160.8 4000 3050.0 950.0 2311.5 1688.5

6258.3 11121.0
447.0 695.1
a -206.6
b 208.1
Suavizacion
Exponencial
Regresión Promedio simple
Lineal Error UNIDADES C Movil k=3 Error (alpha=0.2)
1.5 423.5 400 400
209.6 290.4 550 400.0
417.6 182.4 350 430.0
625.7 74.3 250 433.3 183.3 414.0
833.8 33.8 550 383.3 166.7 381.2
1041.9 141.9 550 383.3 166.7 415.0
1250.0 200.0 400 450.0 50.0 442.0
1458.1 258.1 350 500.0 150.0 433.6
1666.2 316.2 600 433.3 166.7 416.9
1874.3 324.3 750 450.0 300.0 453.5
2082.4 282.4 500 566.7 66.7 512.8
2290.4 290.4 400 616.7 216.7 510.2
2498.5 198.5 650 550.0 100.0 488.2
2706.6 56.6 850 516.7 333.3 520.5
2914.7 85.3 600 633.3 33.3 586.4
3122.8 377.2 450 700.0 250.0 589.2
3330.9 669.1 700 633.3 66.7 561.3
3539.0
4204.4 2250.0
247.3 160.7
 a 374.6
b 16.5

Regresión
Error Lineal Error
391.2 8.8
150.0 407.7 142.3
80.0 424.3 74.3
164.0 440.8 190.8
168.8 457.4 92.6
135.0 473.9 76.1
42.0 490.4 90.4
83.6 507.0 157.0
183.1 523.5 76.5
296.5 540.1 209.9
12.8 556.6 56.6
110.2 573.2 173.2
161.8 589.7 60.3
329.5 606.3 243.8
13.6 622.8 22.8
139.2 639.3 189.3
138.7 655.9 44.1
672.4
2208.7 1908.8
138.0 112.3