Month Sales Forecast Abs Err Error ^2

Forecast 1 Forecast 2 Naive Forecast Forecast 1 Forecast 2 Naïve Forecast Forecast 1

1 770 771 769 1 1 1
2 789 785 787 770 4 2 19 16
3 794 790 792 789 4 2 5 16
4 780 784 798 794 4 18 14 16
5 768 770 774 780 2 6 12 4
6 772 768 770 768 4 2 4 16
7 760 761 759 772 1 1 12 1
8 775 771 775 760 4 0 15 16
9 786 784 788 775 2 2 11 4
10 790 788 788 786 2 2 4 4
Total 28 36 96 94
MAD 2.8 3.6 10.6666666667
MSE 10.444444
MAPE
TS 4.2857143 -4.4444444 1.875
Ucl 6.4635731 13.02988 24.9799919936
LCL -6.4635731 -13.02988 -24.9799919936
 Error ^2 APE Error
Forecast 2 Naïve Forecast Forecast 1 Forecast 2 Naïve Forecast Forecast 1 Forecast 2 Naïve Forecast
1 0.1298701 0.1298701 -1 1
4 361 0.5069708 0.2534854 2.4081115336 4 2 19
4 25 0.5037783 0.2518892 0.6297229219 4 2 5
324 196 0.5128205 2.3076923 1.7948717949 -4 -18 -14
36 144 0.2604167 0.78125 1.5625 -2 -6 -12
4 16 0.5181347 0.2590674 0.518134715 4 2 4
1 144 0.1315789 0.1315789 1.5789473684 -1 1 -12
0 225 0.516129 0 1.935483871 4 0 15
4 121 0.2544529 0.2544529 1.3994910941 2 -2 11
4 16 0.2531646 0.2531646 0.5063291139 2 2 4
382 1248 3.5873167 4.6224508 12.3335924129 12 -16 20

42.444444 156
0.3587317 0.4622451 1.370399157
 Actual
Period
Demand Forecase ABS Err Err Error^2 APE
1 118
2 117 118 1 -1 1 0.854701
3 120 117 3 3 9 2.5
4 119 120 1 -1 1 0.840336
5 126 119 7 7 49 5.555556
6 122 126 4 -4 16 3.278689
7 117 122 5 -5 25 4.273504
8 123 117 6 6 36 4.878049
9 121 123 2 -2 4 1.652893
10 124 121 3 3 9 2.419355
11 125 124 1 1 1 0.8
12 130 125 5 5 25 3.846154
Sum 1332 38 12 176 30.89924

MAD 3.8
MSE 22
Ucl 9.380832
Lcl -9.38083

MAD 3.2 MAD 3.8

MSE 18.75 MSE 22
Ucl 8.660254 Ucl 9.380832
Lcl -8.66025 Lcl -9.38083
Month Sales Forecast 1 Forecast 2 A-f1 a-f2 |A-F1| |A-F2|

1 770 771 769 -1 1 1 1

2 789 785 787 4 2 4 2
3 794 790 792 4 2 4 2
4 780 784 798 -4 -18 4 18
5 768 770 774 -2 -6 2 6
6 772 768 770 4 2 4 2
7 760 761 759 -1 1 1 1
8 775 771 775 4 0 4 0
9 786 784 788 2 -2 2 2
10 790 788 788 2 2 2 2
Total 12 -16 28 36

F1 F2
MAD 2.8 MAD 3.6
MSE 10.44 MSE 42.44444
MAPE 0.359 MAPE 0.462245
A-F1^2 A-F2^2 (|A-F1|/Actual)*100 (|A-F2|/Actual)*100

1 1 0.1298701299 0.1298701299
16 4 0.5069708492 0.2534854246
16 4 0.5037783375 0.2518891688
16 324 0.5128205128 2.3076923077
4 36 0.2604166667 0.78125
16 4 0.518134715 0.2590673575
1 1 0.1315789474 0.1315789474
16 0 0.5161290323 0
4 4 0.2544529262 0.2544529262
4 4 0.253164557 0.253164557
94 382 3.5873166739 4.622450819