1.G.Aleatorio (1. Aleatorio Utilidad =( 249-C.MOD-C.

Pieza
#NAME? 799 2.Utilidad =
1207 3.Utilidad (pesimista)=
580 4. Utilidad(optimista)=
56 Costos de venta
1393 Costos administrativos
1245 Costos de publicidad
85
1415
1306
219 variables aleatorias
490
927 Debe estar asociada por una distrib de prob que las represente
964
823 5.SIMULACI
27
731 C.MOD(aleatorio)
648 43
1264 44
1201 45
1369 46
475 47
888
798 C.piezas (Aleatorio)
1011 a
896 b
1070
544 Generador de dis
170 r=num ale
197 Generador para una dis normal
762
476 No
1123 1
671 2
1239 3
585 4
153 5
1496 6
541 7
89 8
752 9
322 10
758 11
187 12
106 13
1146 14
1215 15
474 16
 813 17
1291 18
310 19
1060 20
461 21
1328 22
1312 23
622 24
1376 25
249 26
1340 27
1486 28
1133 29
1377 30
48 31
551 32
679 33
112 34
1405 35
581 36
723 37
1285 38
78 39
541 40
268 41
933 42
1163 43
1033 44
723 45
1455 46
1076 47
488 48
1078 49
640 50
260 51
7 52
1225 53
38 54
458 55
426 56
98 57
1479 58
359 59
1327 60
861 61
362 62
1472 63
33 64
 627 65
518 66
29 67
669 68
1276 69
479 70
51 71
1121 72
186 73
742 74
369 75
800 76
432 77
1033 78
998 79
1332 80
33 81
187 82
1458 83
30 84
928 85
243 86
587 87
1244 88
45 89
480 90
4 91
317 92
353 93
588 94
138 95
853 96
302 97
1014 98
517 99
477 100
1346 101
613 102
882 103
546 104
317 105
109 106
1057 107
105 108
682 109
659 110
1303 111
744 112
 421 113
578 114
946 115
585 116
1210 117
632 118
1135 119
540 120
456 121
1106 122
1255 123
1121 124
870 125
1057 126
919 127
813 128
1346 129
1110 130
18 131
1467 132
982 133
627 134
509 135
982 136
1426 137
864 138
3 139
1140 140
680 141
1283 142
1047 143
177 144
447 145
415 146
1091 147
1427 148
1077 149
1438 150
1472 151
1392 152
403 153
214 154
587 155
426 156
288 157
1335 158
6 159
1426 160
1432 161
981 162
855 163
1336 164
437 165
1204 166
506 167
1156 168
1157 169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
412
413
414
415
416
417
418
419
420
421
422
423
424
425
426
427
428
429
430
431
432
433
434
435
436
437
438
439
440
441
442
443
444
445
446
447
448
449
450
451
452
453
454
455
456
457
458
459
460
461
462
463
464
465
466
467
468
469
470
471
472
473
474
475
476
477
478
479
480
481
482
483
484
485
486
487
488
489
490
491
492
493
494
495
496
497
498
499
500
 Utilidad =( 249-C.MOD-C.Piezas)*Demanda-1000000
710000
-847000
2591000
249
400000
600000

Valor Optimista Valor mas prob ($/unidad)

Costo de mano de ob.d (MOD) 43 45
Costo. Pieza 80 90
Demanda 28500 15000
ada por una distrib de prob que las represente

5.SIMULACIÓN

PROB 6. Acumulada 7.Desde-Hasta

0.1 0.1 0
0.2 0.3 0.11
0.4 0.7 0.31
0.2 0.9 0.71
0.1 1 0.91

D.uniforme Demanda (aleatorio)

80 μ
100 Ꝺ

x=a+r(b-a)

x=μ+Ꝺ(s-6)
s=(Ede 0-12)ri
aleatorio CMOD aleatorio
0.648 45 0.406163633549748
0.032
0.493
0.937
0.150
0.016
0.468
0.621
0.697
0.350
0.155
0.730
0.722
0.698
0.142
0.035
0.355
0.751
0.407
0.972
0.785
0.334
0.157
0.555
0.866
0.901
0.183
0.813
0.016
0.926
0.663
0.357
0.136
0.544
0.853
0.296
0.095
0.934
0.569
0.393
0.059
0.711
0.409
0.409
0.884
0.219
0.574
0.166
0.182
0.538
0.868
0.414
0.823
0.427
0.415
0.337
0.296
0.060
0.907
0.798
0.267
0.897
0.918
0.271
0.176
0.524
0.166
0.375
0.895
0.785
0.521
0.969
0.240
0.226
0.656
0.229
0.619
0.064
0.187
0.288
0.372
0.365
0.349
0.455
0.330
0.447
0.768
0.220
0.496
0.043
0.311
0.056
0.043
0.278
0.003
0.840
0.562
0.376
0.647
0.854
0.631
0.561
0.267
0.295
0.288
0.946
0.148
0.634
0.437
0.063
0.187
0.604
0.197
0.774
0.210
0.581
0.538
0.273
0.107
0.762
0.075
0.076
0.726
0.412
0.781
0.485
0.554
0.357
0.738
0.087
0.609
0.643
0.482
0.183
0.355
0.445
0.227
0.869
0.135
0.693
0.680
0.670
0.637
0.876
0.098
0.703
0.853
0.735
0.581
0.884
0.238
0.574
0.829
0.308
0.397
0.665
0.481
0.036
0.630
0.833
0.865
0.750
0.776
0.319
0.191
0.343
0.949
0.496
0.192
0.166
0.806
0.578
0.253
0.371
0.567
0.626
0.881
0.021
0.281
0.635
0.585
0.338
0.422
0.941
0.441
0.478
0.374
0.328
0.837
0.451
0.484
0.247
0.924
0.406
0.205
0.979
0.413
0.721
0.172
0.145
0.417
0.945
0.285
0.030
0.759
0.891
0.306
0.906
0.938
0.303
0.702
0.913
0.835
0.527
0.761
0.725
0.297
0.952
0.300
0.845
0.798
0.542
0.613
0.199
0.265
0.141
0.492
0.036
0.039
0.170
0.021
0.332
0.105
0.406
0.354
0.017
0.744
0.122
0.788
0.947
0.644
0.313
0.638
0.162
0.088
0.261
0.081
0.535
0.410
0.645
0.142
0.030
0.117
0.789
0.204
0.929
0.327
0.580
0.059
0.605
0.124
0.174
0.080
0.471
0.332
0.386
0.977
0.327
0.581
0.415
0.191
0.006
0.066
0.863
0.396
0.569
0.341
0.186
0.634
0.400
0.601
0.014
0.761
0.989
0.758
0.108
0.506
0.641
0.791
0.081
0.558
0.249
0.978
0.167
0.492
0.864
0.408
0.284
0.573
0.475
0.647
0.197
0.634
0.242
0.630
0.415
0.194
0.438
0.946
0.373
0.300
0.912
0.333
0.453
0.891
0.278
0.260
0.433
0.990
0.817
0.883
0.636
0.792
0.673
0.392
0.036
0.509
0.097
0.556
0.619
0.071
0.700
0.545
0.432
0.530
0.977
0.693
0.751
0.401
0.772
0.769
0.249
0.271
0.216
0.710
0.314
0.203
0.970
0.007
0.875
0.757
0.078
0.174
0.197
0.278
0.547
0.694
0.407
0.801
0.402
0.288
1.000
0.866
0.200
0.024
0.396
0.543
0.665
0.607
0.109
0.094
0.654
0.616
0.171
0.302
0.661
0.220
0.384
0.344
0.602
0.995
0.947
0.755
0.638
0.740
0.409
0.804
0.453
0.207
0.424
0.213
0.680
0.444
0.245
0.250
0.149
0.269
0.200
0.561
0.033
0.659
0.259
0.585
0.177
0.146
0.736
0.623
0.916
0.800
0.697
0.975
0.817
0.926
0.136
0.007
0.813
0.043
0.139
0.609
0.270
0.919
0.413
0.418
0.660
0.677
0.430
0.907
0.098
0.970
0.709
0.100
0.774
0.565
0.001
0.219
0.430
0.140
0.784
0.468
0.019
0.560
0.718
0.505
0.341
0.399
0.021
0.387
0.377
0.566
0.386
0.052
0.428
0.668
0.180
0.808
0.701
0.116
0.573
0.840
0.135
0.009
0.019
0.574
0.603
0.060
0.721
0.574
0.136
0.788
0.682
0.088
0.700
0.974
0.746
0.981
0.621
0.258
0.104
0.382
0.561
0.178
0.181
0.328
0.806
0.654
0.720
0.195
0.252
0.078
0.080
0.374
0.481
0.503
0.952
0.413
0.074
0.156
0.127
0.216
0.408
 Valor pesimista
47
100
1500

HASTA MOD Utilidad (245-45-96)

0.1 43
0.3 44
0.7 45
0.9 46
1 47

manda (aleatorio) D.normal

15000
4500

utilidad=demanda(249-MOD-C.PIEZA-CO.FIJO(1000000))
Cpiezas Aleatorio(12) Demanda Utilidad UTILIDAD
5.7613965781876 UTILIDAD MX
UTILIDAD MIN
Contar nega
prob perdida (negativ/500)
NC= entero (1-3,3*log(500))
amplitud (max-min/num clases)
A-CO.FIJO(1000000))
PROMEDIO desde hasta
Elemento 1 Elemento 2 Elemento 3 Elemento 4 Elemento 5 Elemento 6 Elemento 7
10.12 8.2 13.05 7.34 3.29 2.92 10.9
11.71 7.06 13.04 6.93 4.2 3.36 10.57
9.33 7.08 12.65 7.33 3.74 3.02 11.9
11.6 6.32 11.94 5.93 3.52 3.41 10.92
10.01 6.44 10.75 5.96 4.6 3.86 9.95
9.81 7.32 11.49 6.98 3.5 3.02 10.2
12.57 7.12 12.44 7.73 4.3 3.48 10.93
9.11 6.22 11.38 8.12 3.75 2.82 11.25
10.9 7.3 11.35 7.11 4.44 2.95 10.16
9.74 6.42 10.8 6.4 3.61 3.09 10.26
10.54 8.21 10.2 8.29 4.89 3.22 9.95
10 7.37 10.9 7.71 4.96 2.75 10.43
9.8 6.82 11.13 7.78 4 2.56 10.15
9.39 7.77 11.21 8.84 4.25 2.63 9.25
10.76 6.84 10.29 7.55 5.06 2.52 10.63
9.96 8.77 11.2 8.72 3.79 3.06 9.43
10.32 7.12 11.31 7.15 4.9 3.84 9.71
10.39 6.27 12.1 7.8 4.69 2.5 9.95
10.37 7.32 11.47 7.6 5.73 3.09 9.54
9.95 8.57 12.13 8.89 4 3.1 9.19
10.63 9.36 11.93 8.44 3.76 2.97 9.02
11.33 6.82 11.5 7.61 4.1 2.85 9.59
10.46 8.41 11.16 8.26 4.93 2.96 9.33
10.6 6.89 11.98 8.25 4.33 2.96 9.47
10.55 7.11 12.11 9.21 4.22 2.3 9.96
10.56 6.88 11.62 7.41 4.12 2.59 9.44
11.3 7.35 10.99 8.03 4.26 2.5 9.64
11.49 7.43 11.79 8.71 4.25 2.77 9.35
10.69 6.78 11.26 7.58 4.13 2.96 10.06
10.28 6.41 11.05 7.72 4.33 3.01 9.12
10.99 8.69 11.63 8.05 4.7 2.9 9.6
10.99 6.11 11.43 8.97 4.53 2.3 9.68
10.44 6.55 11.09 7.9 4.73 2.43 9.01
10.89 7.41 11.35 8.22 4.99 2.63 9.62
11.2 6.25 11 8.6 4.13 2.43 8.99
9.99 7.1 11.42 8.26 3.88 2.38 9.69
11.23 6.15 11.08 9.01 4.96 2.1 9.89
10.22 7.31 11.69 8.19 4.32 2.24 9.06
11.12 7.02 11.86 7.71 5.33 2.44 9.64
10.53 6.22 11.99 8.05 4.31 2.38 9.46
9.97 6.87 11.15 8.2 4.32 2.56 9.4
9.92 6.9 11.57 8.16 4.12 3.01 9.02
10.12 6.32 11.51 8.35 4.65 2.02 9.2
9.76 6.51 11.65 9.05 4.63 2.12 9.57
10.9 7.03 11.69 8.3 4.66 2.04 9.84
9.65 6.17 11.98 8.97 4.22 2.34 8.59
10.15 6.38 11.85 8.01 4.23 2.17 9.5
 9.32 6.12 11.41 8.64 4.12 2.01 9.63
10.49 6.35 11.57 8.7 4.19 2.09 9.89
10.07 7.86 11.67 9.1 4.12 2.35 9.88

10.4444 7.066 11.5362 7.9964 4.3358 2.7202 9.7882

el 2 el 3 el4
1 0.96894029 9.15 1.16048684 7.03951316 1.13122172 11.9187783 0.91791306
2 1.12117498 10.59 0.99915086 6.06084914 1.13035488 11.9096451 0.86663999
3 0.89330167 8.44 1.00198132 6.07801868 1.09654826 11.5534517 0.9166625
4 1.11064302 10.49 0.894424 5.425576 1.03500286 10.9049971 0.74158371
5 0.95840833 9.05 0.91140674 5.52859326 0.93184931 9.81815069 0.7453354
6 0.93925932 8.87 1.03594679 6.28405321 0.99599522 10.4940048 0.8728928
7 1.20351576 11.37 1.00764223 6.11235777 1.07834469 11.3616553 0.96668501
8 0.87223775 8.24 0.88027172 5.33972828 0.98646001 10.39354 1.01545696
9 1.04362146 9.86 1.03311633 6.26688367 0.9838595 10.3661405 0.88915012
10 0.93255716 8.81 0.90857628 5.51142372 0.93618349 9.86381651 0.80036016
11 1.00915323 9.53 1.16190207 7.04809793 0.8841733 9.3158267 1.03671652
12 0.95745088 9.04 1.04302293 6.32697707 0.94485186 9.95514814 0.96418388
13 0.93830187 8.86 0.96518539 5.85481461 0.9647891 10.1652109 0.97293782
14 0.89904638 8.49 1.09963204 6.67036796 0.97172379 10.2382762 1.10549747
15 1.03021715 9.73 0.96801585 5.87198415 0.89197483 9.39802517 0.94417488
16 0.95362108 9.01 1.24115483 7.52884517 0.97085695 10.229143 1.09049072
17 0.98808931 9.33 1.00764223 6.11235777 0.98039216 10.3296078 0.89415237
18 0.99479147 9.40 0.88734786 5.38265214 1.04887225 11.0511278 0.97543895
19 0.99287657 9.38 1.03594679 6.28405321 0.99426154 10.4757385 0.95042769
20 0.95266363 9.00 1.21285027 7.35714973 1.05147276 11.0785272 1.11175029
21 1.01777029 9.61 1.32465327 8.03534673 1.03413602 10.895864 1.05547496
22 1.08479185 10.25 0.96518539 5.85481461 0.99686205 10.5031379 0.95167826
23 1.00149362 9.46 1.19020662 7.21979338 0.96738961 10.1926104 1.03296483
24 1.01489794 9.59 0.97509199 5.91490801 1.03847021 10.9415298 1.03171427
25 1.01011068 9.54 1.006227 6.103773 1.04973908 11.0602609 1.1517683
26 1.01106813 9.55 0.97367676 5.90632324 1.00726409 10.6127359 0.926667
27 1.0819195 10.22 1.04019247 6.30980753 0.95265339 10.0373466 1.00420189
28 1.10011106 10.39 1.05151429 6.37848571 1.02200031 10.7679997 1.08924016
29 1.02351499 9.67 0.95952448 5.82047552 0.97605797 10.283942 0.94792657
30 0.98425951 9.30 0.90716105 5.50283895 0.95785441 10.0921456 0.96543445
31 1.05223852 9.94 1.229833 7.460167 1.00813093 10.6218691 1.00670302
32 1.05223852 9.94 0.86470422 5.24529578 0.9907942 10.4392058 1.12175479
33 0.99957872 9.44 0.92697424 5.62302576 0.96132175 10.1286782 0.98794458
34 1.04266401 9.85 1.04868384 6.36131616 0.9838595 10.3661405 1.02796258
35 1.07234499 10.13 0.88451741 5.36548259 0.95352022 10.0464798 1.07548397
36 0.95649343 9.03 1.00481177 6.09518823 0.98992736 10.4300726 1.03296483
37 1.07521734 10.15 0.87036513 5.27963487 0.96045492 10.1195451 1.12675704
38 0.9785148 9.24 1.03453156 6.27546844 1.01333195 10.6766681 1.02421089
39 1.06468538 10.06 0.99348995 6.02651005 1.02806817 10.8319318 0.96418388
40 1.00819578 9.52 0.88027172 5.33972828 1.03933704 10.950663 1.00670302
41 0.95457853 9.02 0.97226153 5.89773847 0.96652277 10.1834772 1.02546146
42 0.94979128 8.97 0.97650722 5.92349278 1.00292991 10.5670701 1.02045921
43 0.96894029 9.15 0.894424 5.425576 0.99772889 10.5122711 1.0442199
44 0.93447206 8.83 0.92131333 5.58868667 1.0098646 10.6401354 1.13175929
45 1.04362146 9.86 0.99490518 6.03509482 1.01333195 10.6766681 1.03796709
46 0.9239401 8.73 0.87319558 5.29680442 1.03847021 10.9415298 1.12175479
47 0.97181265 9.18 0.90291537 5.47708463 1.02720133 10.8227987 1.00170077
48 0.89234422 8.43 0.86611945 5.25388055 0.98906052 10.4209395 1.08048622
49 1.00436598 9.49 0.89866969 5.45133031 1.00292991 10.5670701 1.0879896
50 0.96415304 9.11 1.11236909 6.74763091 1.01159827 10.6584017 1.13801211
 el5 el 6 el7
6.42 0.75879884 2.53 1.07345048 1.85 1.11358575 9.79
6.06 0.96867937 3.23 1.23520329 2.12 1.07987168 9.49
6.41 0.86258591 2.88 1.11021248 1.91 1.21574958 10.68
5.19 0.81184556 2.71 1.2535843 2.16 1.11562902 9.80
5.21 1.06093454 3.54 1.41901331 2.44 1.01653011 8.93
6.11 0.80723281 2.69 1.11021248 1.91 1.04207107 9.16
6.76 0.99174316 3.31 1.2793177 2.20 1.11665066 9.81
7.10 0.86489229 2.89 1.03668848 1.78 1.14934309 10.10
6.22 1.02403247 3.42 1.08447908 1.87 1.03798451 9.12
5.60 0.83260298 2.78 1.13594589 1.95 1.04820089 9.21
7.25 1.12781955 3.76 1.18373649 2.04 1.01653011 8.93
6.75 1.1439642 3.82 1.01095508 1.74 1.06556875 9.36
6.81 0.92255178 3.08 0.94110727 1.62 1.03696287 9.11
7.73 0.98021126 3.27 0.96684067 1.66 0.94501543 8.30
6.61 1.167028 3.89 0.92640247 1.59 1.08600151 9.54
7.63 0.87411781 2.92 1.12491729 1.94 0.96340492 8.47
6.26 1.13012593 3.77 1.41166091 2.43 0.99201079 8.72
6.82 1.08169196 3.61 0.91905007 1.58 1.01653011 8.93
6.65 1.32155542 4.41 1.13594589 1.95 0.97464294 8.57
7.78 0.92255178 3.08 1.13962209 1.96 0.9388856 8.25
7.38 0.86719867 2.89 1.09183148 1.88 0.92151775 8.10
6.66 0.94561557 3.15 1.04771708 1.80 0.97975113 8.61
7.23 1.13704507 3.79 1.08815528 1.87 0.95318853 8.38
7.22 0.9986623 3.33 1.08815528 1.87 0.96749147 8.50
8.06 0.97329213 3.25 0.84552606 1.45 1.01755175 8.94
6.48 0.95022833 3.17 0.95213587 1.64 0.96442655 8.48
7.03 0.98251764 3.28 0.91905007 1.58 0.98485932 8.66
7.62 0.98021126 3.27 1.01830748 1.75 0.95523181 8.39
6.63 0.95253471 3.18 1.08815528 1.87 1.02776813 9.03
6.75 0.9986623 3.33 1.10653628 1.90 0.93173413 8.19
7.04 1.08399834 3.62 1.06609808 1.83 0.98077277 8.62
7.85 1.04478989 3.49 0.84552606 1.45 0.98894587 8.69
6.91 1.09091748 3.64 0.89331667 1.54 0.92049611 8.09
7.19 1.15088334 3.84 0.96684067 1.66 0.98281604 8.64
7.52 0.95253471 3.18 0.89331667 1.54 0.91845283 8.07
7.23 0.89487522 2.99 0.87493567 1.51 0.98996751 8.70
7.88 1.1439642 3.82 0.77200206 1.33 1.01040028 8.88
7.17 0.99635592 3.32 0.82346886 1.42 0.9256043 8.13
6.75 1.22930024 4.10 0.89699287 1.54 0.98485932 8.66
7.04 0.99404954 3.32 0.87493567 1.51 0.96646983 8.49
7.17 0.99635592 3.32 0.94110727 1.62 0.96034 8.44
7.14 0.95022833 3.17 1.10653628 1.90 0.92151775 8.10
7.31 1.07246644 3.58 0.74259246 1.28 0.93990724 8.26
7.92 1.06785368 3.56 0.77935446 1.34 0.97770785 8.59
7.26 1.07477282 3.59 0.74994486 1.29 1.00529209 8.83
7.85 0.97329213 3.25 0.86023087 1.48 0.8775873 7.71
7.01 0.97559851 3.25 0.79773546 1.37 0.97055638 8.53
7.56 0.95022833 3.17 0.73891626 1.27 0.98383768 8.65
7.61 0.96637299 3.22 0.76832586 1.32 1.01040028 8.88
7.96 0.95022833 3.17 0.86390707 1.49 1.00937864 8.87