Demanda

Monthly Demand
Period Demand
t Dt
1 920
2 921
3 1,030
4 1,257
5 1,399
6 1,740
7 1,907
8 2,607
9 3,065
10 2,783
11 1,462
12 871
13 966
14 1,040
15 1,090
16 1,375
17 1,494
18 1,883
19 2,099
20 2,799
21 3,324
22 2,990
23 1,582
24 987
25 1,067
26 1,082
27 1,186
28 1,469
29 1,637
30 1,968
31 2,231
32 2,994
33 3,535
34 3,153
35 1,692
36 1,013

Figure 7.1 Quarterly Demand at Tahoe Salt

4,000
Demand

3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Year, Quarter
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500 Demanda
1,000
500
-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Year, Quarter
 PromedioMovil

Forecasts Using Four-Period Moving Average

Absolute Mean Squared
Period Demand Level Forecast Error Error Error VALOR 1
t Dt Lt Ft Et At MSEt MADt % Error MAPEt TSt PONDERADO PESO PONDERADO
1 920
2 921
3 1,030
4 1,257 1,032 1,081.83
5 1,399 1,152 1,032 -367 367 134,689 367 26 26.23 -1.00
6 1,740 1,357 1,152 -588 588 240,364 478 34 30.02 -2.00
7 1,907 1,576 1,357 -551 551 261,259 502 29 29.64 -3.00
8 2,607 1,913 1,576 -1,031 1,031 461,813 634 40 32.12 -4.00
9 3,065 2,330 1,913 -1,152 1,152 634,756 738 38 33.21 -5.00
10 2,783 2,591 2,330 -453 453 563,203 690 16 30.39 -6.00
11 1,462 2,479 2,591 1,129 1,129 664,676 753 77 37.07 -4.00
12 871 2,045 2,479 1,608 1,608 904,900 860 185 55.52 -1.63
13 966 1,521 2,045 1,079 1,079 933,775 884 112 61.77 -0.37
14 1,040 1,085 1,521 481 481 863,486 844 46 60.21 0.18
15 1,090 992 1,085 -5 5 784,990 768 0 54.78 0.19
16 1,375 1,118 992 -383 383 731,814 736 28 52.54 -0.32
17 1,494 1,250 1,118 -376 376 686,410 708 25 50.43 -0.86
18 1,883 1,461 1,250 -633 633 666,024 703 34 49.23 -1.77
19 2,099 1,713 1,461 -639 639 648,801 698 30 47.98 -2.69
20 2,799 2,069 1,713 -1,086 1,086 681,997 723 39 47.41 -4.11
21 3,324 2,526 2,069 -1,255 1,255 734,565 754 38 46.84 -5.60
22 2,990 2,803 2,526 -464 464 705,704 738 16 45.10 -6.35
23 1,582 2,674 2,803 1,221 1,221 747,027 763 77 46.79 -4.54
24 987 2,221 2,674 1,687 1,687 851,932 809 171 52.99 -2.20
25 1,067 1,657 2,221 1,154 1,154 874,751 826 108 55.62 -0.76
26 1,082 1,180 1,657 575 575 849,992 814 53 55.50 -0.06
27 1,186 1,081 1,180 -7 7 813,038 779 1 53.11 -0.07
28 1,469 1,201 1,081 -389 389 785,450 763 26 52.00 -0.58
29 1,637 1,344 1,201 -436 436 761,636 750 27 50.99 -1.18
30 1,968 1,565 1,344 -625 625 747,342 745 32 50.25 -2.02
31 2,231 1,826 1,565 -666 666 736,091 742 30 49.49 -2.93
 PromedioMovil

32 2,994 2,208 1,826 -1,168 1,168 758,503 757 39 49.12 -4.41

33 3,535 2,682 2,208 -1,328 1,328 793,116 777 38 48.72 -6.01
34 3,153 2,978 2,682 -471 471 774,073 767 15 47.59 -6.70
35 1,692 2,844 2,978 1,286 1,286 802,472 784 76 48.51 -4.92
36 1,013 2,348 2,844 1,831 1,831 882,105 816 181 52.64 -2.48
37 2,348 939.20
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48

4,000
3,500
3,000
Demand
2,500
Dt
2,000
Forecast
1,500 Ft
1,000
500
-
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
 PromedioMovil

PESO PONDERADO
2
4
5
7
 SuavExpSimple

Forecasts Using Simple Exponential Smoothing

Demand Absolute Error Mean Squared
Period t Dt Level Lt Forecast Ft Error Et At Error MSEt MADt % Error MAPEt TSt
0 1,795
1 920 1,182 1,795 875 875 765,528 875 95 95.10 1.00
2 921 999 1,182 261 261 416,951 568 28 61.75 2.00
3 1,030 1,021 999 -31 31 278,278 389 3 42.15 2.84
4 1,257 1,186 1,021 -236 236 222,652 351 19 36.31 2.48
5 1,399 1,335 1,186 -213 213 187,183 323 15 32.09 2.03
6 1,740 1,619 1,335 -405 405 183,304 337 23 30.62 0.75
7 1,907 1,820 1,619 -288 288 169,004 330 15 28.41 -0.11
8 2,607 2,371 1,820 -787 787 225,209 387 30 28.63 -2.13
9 3,065 2,857 2,371 -694 694 253,695 421 23 27.96 -3.60
10 2,783 2,805 2,857 74 74 228,870 386 3 25.43 -3.74
11 1,462 1,865 2,805 1,343 1,343 372,067 473 92 31.47 -0.21
12 871 1,169 1,865 994 994 423,388 517 114 38.36 1.73
13 966 1,027 1,169 203 203 393,995 493 21 37.03 2.23
14 1,040 1,036 1,027 -13 13 365,865 458 1 34.47 2.37
15 1,090 1,074 1,036 -54 54 341,668 431 5 32.50 2.39
16 1,375 1,285 1,074 -301 301 325,983 423 22 31.84 1.72
17 1,494 1,431 1,285 -209 209 309,385 411 14 30.79 1.27
18 1,883 1,747 1,431 -452 452 303,538 413 24 30.41 0.16
19 2,099 1,994 1,747 -352 352 294,066 410 17 29.69 -0.69
20 2,799 2,557 1,994 -805 805 311,802 430 29 29.65 -2.54
21 3,324 3,094 2,557 -767 767 324,941 446 23 29.34 -4.17
22 2,990 3,021 3,094 104 104 310,663 430 3 28.16 -4.07
23 1,582 2,014 3,021 1,439 1,439 387,213 474 91 30.89 -0.66
24 987 1,295 2,014 1,027 1,027 415,005 497 104 33.94 1.44
25 1,067 1,135 1,295 228 228 400,485 486 21 33.44 1.94
26 1,082 1,098 1,135 53 53 385,191 470 5 32.34 2.12
27 1,186 1,160 1,098 -88 88 371,212 455 7 31.42 1.99
28 1,469 1,376 1,160 -309 309 361,373 450 21 31.05 1.33
29 1,637 1,559 1,376 -261 261 351,257 444 16 30.53 0.76
30 1,968 1,845 1,559 -409 409 345,132 443 21 30.20 -0.16
31 2,231 2,115 1,845 -386 386 338,799 441 17 29.78 -1.04
32 2,994 2,730 2,115 -879 879 352,342 454 29 29.77 -2.94
 SuavExpSimple

33 3,535 3,294 2,730 -805 805 361,283 465 23 29.56 -4.60

34 3,153 3,195 3,294 141 141 351,239 455 4 28.82 -4.39
35 1,692 2,143 3,195 1,503 1,503 405,762 485 89 30.54 -1.02
36 1,013 1,352 2,143 1,130 1,130 429,958 503 112 32.79 1.26
49 655.71
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
61

alpha 0.7

4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
Demand
2,000
Forecast
1,500
1,000
500
-
123456789111111111122222222223333333
012345678901234567890123456
 Holts

Forecasts Using Trend-Corrected Exponential Smoothing (Holt's Model)

Trend Absolute Mean Squared
Period t Demand Dt Level Lt Tt Forecast Ft Error Et Error At Error MSEt MADt % Error MAPEt TSt
0 1,394 22
1 920 1,069 -13 1,415 495 495 245,224 495 54 53.83 1.00
2 921 961 -22 1,056 135 135 131,670 315 15 219.64 2.00
3 1,030 1,003 -16 939 -91 91 90,541 240 9 187.94 2.24
4 1,257 1,176 3 987 -270 270 86,174 248 22 174.62 1.08
5 1,399 1,333 18 1,179 -220 220 78,635 242 16 165.49 0.20
6 1,740 1,623 46 1,351 -389 389 90,716 267 22 162.00 -1.28
7 1,907 1,836 62 1,669 -238 238 85,854 263 12 158.50 -2.20
8 2,607 2,394 112 1,898 -709 709 137,998 318 27 160.29 -4.04
9 3,065 2,897 151 2,506 -559 559 157,376 345 18 162.67 -5.35
10 2,783 2,863 132 3,048 265 265 148,676 337 10 163.74 -4.69
11 1,462 1,922 25 2,995 1,533 1,533 348,801 446 105 173.88 -0.11
12 871 1,194 -50 1,947 1,076 1,076 416,213 498 124 185.31 2.06
13 966 1,019 -63 1,144 178 178 386,622 474 18 189.98 2.54
14 1,040 1,015 -57 957 -83 83 359,502 446 8 192.62 2.52
15 1,090 1,050 -48 958 -132 132 336,694 425 12 194.34 2.33
16 1,375 1,263 -22 1,003 -372 372 324,307 422 27 196.22 1.47
17 1,494 1,418 -4 1,242 -252 252 308,971 412 17 197.28 0.89
18 1,883 1,742 29 1,414 -469 469 304,002 415 25 198.53 -0.25
19 2,099 2,001 52 1,771 -328 328 293,653 410 16 199.29 -1.05
20 2,799 2,575 104 2,053 -746 746 306,830 427 27 200.67 -2.76
21 3,324 3,131 149 2,679 -645 645 312,020 437 19 201.99 -4.17
22 2,990 3,077 129 3,280 290 290 301,654 431 10 202.81 -3.56
23 1,582 2,069 15 3,206 1,624 1,624 403,191 483 103 206.72 0.19
24 987 1,316 -62 2,084 1,097 1,097 436,574 508 111 211.01 2.34
25 1,067 1,123 -75 1,255 188 188 420,520 495 18 212.83 2.78
26 1,082 1,072 -72 1,049 -33 33 404,389 478 3 213.88 2.81
27 1,186 1,130 -59 1,000 -186 186 390,698 467 16 214.90 2.48
28 1,469 1,350 -31 1,071 -398 398 382,407 464 27 216.00 1.63
29 1,637 1,541 -9 1,318 -319 319 372,727 459 19 216.81 0.96
30 1,968 1,837 21 1,532 -436 436 366,633 459 22 217.59 0.01
31 2,231 2,119 47 1,859 -372 372 359,278 456 17 218.19 -0.81
32 2,994 2,746 105 2,167 -827 827 369,436 467 28 219.11 -2.56
 Holts

33 3,535 3,330 153 2,851 -684 684 372,410 474 19 219.94 -3.96
34 3,153 3,252 130 3,483 330 330 364,661 470 10 220.54 -3.30
35 1,692 2,199 12 3,382 1,690 1,690 435,861 505 100 222.87 0.28
36 1,013 1,372 -72 2,211 1,198 1,198 463,611 524 118 225.60 2.56
37 1,300 680.89
38 1,228
39 1,156
40 1,084
41 1,012
42 940
43 868
44 796
45 724
46 652
47 580
48 508
alpha 0.7
Beta 0.1

4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
Demand
2,000
Forecast
1,500
1,000
500
-
123456789111111111122222222223333333
012345678901234567890123456
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de0.28156265
Coeficiente d 0.07927753
R^2 ajustado 0.05219745
Error típico 790.49183
Observacione 36

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 1829342.55 1829342.55 2.92752266 0.09619155
Residuos 34 21245829.3 624877.333
Total 35 23075171.9

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%
Intercepción 1393.50159 269.084413 5.17867822 1.0072E-05 846.656267 1940.34691 846.656267
Variable X 1 21.6996139 12.6824125 1.71100048 0.09619155 -4.07414924 47.473377 -4.07414924
Superior 95.0%
1940.34691
47.473377
 Promedio
móvil de 12 Promedio Factor Indice
Periodo Demand meses móvil centrado estacional estacional
1 Enero 920
2 Febrero 921
3 Marzo 1,030
4 Abril 1,257
5 Mayo 1,399
6 Junio 1,740
7 Julio 1,907 1,663.50 1,665.42 1.1451
8 Agosto 2,607 1,667.33 1,672.29 1.5589
9 Septiembre 3,065 1,677.25 1,679.75 1.8247
10 Octubre 2,783 1,682.25 1,687.17 1.6495
11 Noviembre 1,462 1,692.08 1,696.04 0.8620
12 Diciembre 871 1,700.00 1,705.96 0.5106
13 Enero 966 1,711.92 1,719.92 0.5617 0.5685
14 Febrero 1,040 1,727.92 1,735.92 0.5991 0.5891
15 Marzo 1,090 1,743.92 1,754.71 0.6212 0.6251
16 Abril 1,375 1,765.50 1,774.13 0.7750 0.7739
17 Mayo 1,494 1,782.75 1,787.75 0.8357 0.8459
18 Junio 1,883 1,792.75 1,797.58 1.0475 1.0368
19 Julio 2,099 1,802.42 1,806.63 1.1618 1.1534
20 Agosto 2,799 1,810.83 1,812.58 1.5442 1.5516
21 Septiembre 3,324 1,814.33 1,818.33 1.8280 1.8264
22 Octubre 2,990 1,822.33 1,826.25 1.6372 1.6434
23 Noviembre 1,582 1,830.17 1,836.13 0.8616 0.8618
24 Diciembre 987 1,842.08 1,845.63 0.5348 0.5227
25 Enero 1,067 1,849.17 1,854.67 0.5753
26 Febrero 1,082 1,860.17 1,868.29 0.5791
27 Marzo 1,186 1,876.42 1,885.21 0.6291
28 Abril 1,469 1,894.00 1,900.79 0.7728
29 Mayo 1,637 1,907.58 1,912.17 0.8561
30 Junio 1,968 1,916.75 1,917.83 1.0262
31 Julio 2,231 1,918.92
32 Agosto 2,994
33 Septiembre 3,535
34 Octubre 3,153
35 Noviembre 1,692
36 Diciembre 1,013
37 Enero
38 Febrero
39 Marzo
40 Abril
41 Mayo
42 Junio
43 Julio
44 Agosto
45 Septiembre
46 Octubre
47 Noviembre
48 Diciembre
 Absolute Mean Squared
Pronóstico Error Et Error At Error MSEt MADt % Error MAPEt TSt
905 -14.92 14.92 222.48 15 2 1.62 -1.00
945 23.61 23.61 390.04 19 3 2.09 0.45
1,009 -20.55 20.55 400.83 20 2 2.06 -0.60
1,258 1.45 1.45 301.15 15 0 1.57 -0.69
1,385 -13.97 13.97 279.95 15 1 1.46 -1.64
1,709 -30.59 30.59 389.30 18 2 1.51 -3.14
1,915 7.70 7.70 342.16 16 0 1.35 -2.93
2,593 -13.86 13.86 323.42 16 1 1.25 -3.86
3,073 8.05 8.05 294.69 15 0 1.14 -3.55
2,784 0.74 0.74 265.27 14 0 1.03 -3.86
1,470 7.57 7.57 246.37 13 1 0.98 -3.44
897 26.19 26.19 282.99 14 3 1.15 -1.32
982 16.25 16.25 281.54 14 2 1.19 -0.16
1,025 -15.42 15.42 278.40 14 1 1.21 -1.24
1,094 4.31 4.31 261.08 14 0 1.16 -0.98
1,364 -11.49 11.49 253.02 14 1 1.14 -1.84
1,500 5.85 5.85 240.15 13 0 1.09 -1.46
1,850 -32.85 32.85 286.76 14 2 1.13 -3.66
2,071 -27.72 27.72 312.12 15 1 1.14 -5.34
2,804 4.75 4.75 297.64 14 0 1.09 -5.20
3,321 -3.03 3.03 283.91 14 0 1.04 -5.63
3,007 16.82 16.82 283.86 14 1 1.02 -4.37
1,587 4.56 4.56 272.42 14 0 0.99 -4.16
968 -18.86 18.86 275.90 14 2 1.03 -5.47
1,059 -7.58 7.58 267.16 14 1 1.02 -6.12
1,105 22.55 22.55 276.45 14 2 1.06 -4.35
1,179 -6.83 6.83 267.94 14 1 1.04 -4.93
1,469 -0.43 0.43 258.38 13 0 1.00 -5.14
1,615 -22.32 22.32 266.65 13 1 1.02 -6.68
1,991 22.89 22.89 275.23 14 1 1.02 -4.87
2,228 -3.15 3.15 266.67 13 0 0.99 -5.23
3,014 20.37 20.37 271.30 14 1 0.98 -3.65
3,569 33.89 33.89 297.88 14 1 0.98 -1.12
3,230 76.90 76.90 463.04 16 2 1.02 3.78
1,704 11.54 11.54 453.61 16 1 1.01 4.53
1,039 26.09 26.09 459.92 16 3 1.06 6.05
1,137 21.45 4,500
1,185
1,264 4,000
1,574
1,730 3,500
2,132
2,384
3,000
3,225
3,817
3,453 2,500
1,821
2,000

1,500

1,000
 3,000

2,500

1,110 2,000

1,500

1,000

500

-
o il o
r er Abr uni
b J Ag
Fe
 Promedio móvil centrado
1,950
1,900 f(x) = 11.3115036231884 x + 1580.78405797101
1,850
1,800
1,750
1,700
1,650
1,600
1,550
1,500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Promedio móvil centrado

1,950
f(x) = 11.3115036231884 x + 1580.78405797101
1,900

1,850
1,800
Promedio móvil centrado
1,750
Linear (Promedio móvil
1,700 centrado)

1,650
1,600

1,550
1,500
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000 Demand
Pronóstico
1,500

1,000
3,000

2,500

2,000 Demand
Pronóstico
1,500

1,000

500

-
o il o o e e o il o o e e o il o o e e o il o o e
r er Abr uni ost ubr br rer Abr uni ost ubr br rer Abr uni ost ubr br rer Abr uni ost ubr
b J Ag ct iem eb J Ag ct iem eb J Ag ct em eb J Ag ct
Fe O ic F O ic F O ici F O
D D D
6 27 28 29 30

io móvil centrado
Promedio móvil
o)

Demand
Pronóstico
 Demand
Pronóstico

re
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de 0.9950951
Coeficiente d 0.99021426
R^2 ajustado 0.98976946
Error típico 8.12128111
Observacione 24

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 146827.492 146827.492 2226.16984 1.3313E-23
Residuos 22 1451.01455 65.9552069
Total 23 148278.507

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%
Intercepción 1575.68709 4.73043092 333.095888 3.1262E-42 1565.87678 1585.4974 1565.87678
Variable X 1 11.2993841 0.23948351 47.1823043 1.3313E-23 10.8027256 11.7960425 10.8027256
Superior 95.0%
1585.4974
11.7960425
 DatosDesestacionalizados

Deseasonalized Demand

Deseasonalized Deseasonalized
Period Demand Demand Demand Seasonal Factor Estimate S
t Dt (Eqn 7.2)
Dt (Eqn 7.3) Dt (Eqn 7.5) S t (Eqn 7.6)
i
T=7
1 920 1592 0.5779 0.5698 P=12
2 921 1603 0.5744 0.5832
3 1,030 1615 0.6379 0.6298
4 1,257 1626 0.7730 0.7759
5 1,399 1637 0.8544 0.8515
6 1,740 1649 1.0554 1.0452
7 1,907 1,665 1660 1.1488 0.7726
8 2,607 1,672 1671 1.5599 1.0363
9 3,065 1,680 1683 1.8216 1.2166
10 2,783 1,687 1694 1.6430 1.0924
11 1,462 1,696 1705 0.8574 0.5722
12 871 1,706 1717 0.5074 0.3468
13 966 1,720 1728 0.5591 0.3772
14 1,040 1,736 1739 0.5980
15 1,090 1,755 1750 0.6227
16 1,375 1,774 1762 0.7805
17 1,494 1,788 1773 0.8426
18 1,883 1,798 1784 1.0553
19 2,099 1,807 1796 1.1689
20 2,799 1,813 1807 1.5490
21 3,324 1,818 1818 1.8281
22 2,990 1,826 1830 1.6342
23 1,582 1,836 1841 0.8593
24 987 1,846 1852 0.5329
25 1,067 1,855 1864 0.5726
26 1,082 1,868 1875 0.5771
27 1,186 1,885 1886 0.6288
28 1,469 1,901 1898 0.7742
29 1,637 1,912 1909 0.8576
30 1,968 1,918 1920 1.0249
31 2,231 1,874
32 2,994 1,785
33 3,535 1,690
34 3,153 1,580
35 1,692 1,450
36 1,013 1,300

Deseasonalizing Demand
𝑖=𝑡+1+(𝑝/2)
ത
𝐷ത
ത
𝑡 = ቎𝐷𝑡−(𝑝/2) + 𝐷𝑡+(𝑝/2) + ෍ 2𝐷𝑖 ቏/2𝑝 Para p = par
𝑖=𝑡−1+(𝑝/2)
 𝑖=𝑡+1+(𝑝/2)
DatosDesestacionalizados
ത
𝐷ത
ത
𝑡 = ቎𝐷𝑡−(𝑝/2) + 𝐷𝑡+(𝑝/2) + ෍ 2𝐷𝑖 ቏/2𝑝 Para p = par
𝑖=𝑡−1+(𝑝/2)
where:
D = Demand
p = periodicity
t = period

Deseasonalized Demand
4,000
Demand

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500 f(x) = − 0.759288097886528 x + 1771.03302743789

1,000

500

-
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Period, t
 DatosDesestacionalizados

PERIODO

Para p = impar
Para p = par
 DatosDesestacionalizados

Para p = par
 DatosDesestacionalizados

Para p = impar
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de0.99563504
Coeficiente d 0.99128914
R^2 ajustado 0.99089319
Error típico 7.66634226
Observacione 24

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 147142.631 147142.631 2503.58367 3.7E-24
Residuos 22 1293.00168 58.7728036
Total 23 148435.633

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%
Intercepción 1580.78406 4.4654411 354.00401 8.1933E-43 1571.5233 1590.04482 1571.5233
Variable X 1 11.3115036 0.2260681 50.0358239 3.7E-24 10.8426671 11.7803402 10.8426671
Superior 95.0%
1590.04482
11.7803402
 Winter

Forecasts Using Trend and Seasonality Corrected Exponential Smoothing)

Seasonal Absolute Mean Squared
Period t Demand Dt Level Lt Trend Tt Factor St Forecast Ft Error Et Error At Error MSEt MADt % Error MAPEt TSt
1,580.78 11.31
1 920 1,607.79 0.5698
2 921 0.5832
3 1,030 0.6298
4 1,257 0.7759
5 1,399 0.8515
6 1,740 1.0452
7 1,907 1.1576
8 2,607 1.5500
9 3,065 1.8196
10 2,783 1.6271
11 1,462 0.8576
12 871 0.8576
13 966
14 1,040
15 1,090
16 1,375
17 1,494
18 1,883
19 2,099
20 2,799
21 3,324
22 2,990
23 1,582
24 987
25 1,067
26 1,082
27 1,186
28 1,469
29 1,637
30 1,968
31 2,231
32 2,994
33 3,535
34 3,153
35 1,692
36 1,013
37
 Winter

38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48

alpha 0.7 0
Beta 0.1 4,000 0
Gamma 0.08
3,500
3,000
2,500
Demand
2,000
Forecast
1,500
1,000
500
-
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012345678901234567890123456
 TS Range
Forecasting Method MSE MAD MAPE(%) Min Max
Four-period moving average 939 816 53 -6.70 0.19
Simple exponential smoothing 656 503 33 -4.60 2.84
Holt's model 681 524 226 -5.35 2.81
Decomposition of time series 21 16 1 -6.68 6.05
Winter's model 0 0 0 0.00 0.00