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économique et humanitaire
Ajmal Ahmady
Maintenant, nous devons gérer les retombées. Les talibans ont pu rapidement prendre le contrôle
du pays. Maintenant, ils doivent montrer s'ils peuvent gouverner. Selon certaines informations, la
Commission économique des talibans a commencé à se réunir, mais n'a pris que des décisions
périphériques telles que l'interdiction des exportations de ferraille. Ce n'est que lundi qu'un
nouveau gouverneur de la banque centrale a été nommé.
Tant les talibans que la communauté internationale doivent rapidement élaborer des plans pour
faire face à cette grave situation. L'Afghanistan était déjà confronté à la triple menace du Covid-
19, des conflits et de la sécheresse. Même avant les événements récents, le Programme
alimentaire mondial avait annoncé que jusqu'à 14 millions d'Afghans étaient en situation
d'insécurité alimentaire.
Désormais, le pays doit aussi faire face à un choc économique. Avec le gel de 9 milliards de
dollars de réserves étrangères, la couverture des importations est passée de plus de 15 mois à
seulement deux jours du jour au lendemain.
Les flux d'aide internationale devraient également diminuer. L'Allemagne a déjà annoncé une
suspension de 300 millions de dollars d'aide, tandis que le FMI a suspendu son allocation de 440
millions de dollars de DTS. Lors de la réunion du G7 cette semaine, on s'attend à ce que le
Premier ministre britannique Boris Johnson appelle à de nouvelles sanctions.
Les revenus des talibans provenant de ces sources pourraient être considérés comme relativement
importants lorsqu'ils ne mènent qu'une campagne d'insurrection. Ils sont tout à fait insuffisants
pour faire fonctionner un gouvernement fonctionnel.
De plus, l'affirmation selon laquelle la Chine, la Russie ou même le Pakistan investiront des
sommes importantes en Afghanistan n'est pas réaliste. En 2019, en tant que ministre afghan du
Commerce, j'ai assisté à la deuxième conférence de l'initiative "la Ceinture et la Route" à
Pékin. Malgré tous nos efforts, l'Afghanistan n'a jamais fait partie de la BRI, et je ne m'attendrais
pas à ce qu'il fasse partie de l'initiative dans un proche avenir.
Afin de soutenir les flux de réfugiés, un corridor humanitaire doit être mis en place. Des accords
internationaux sur le nombre de réfugiés à prendre doivent être signés.
Let me be clear. If the current situation persists, refugee flows will increase. The international
community should try to make the flow as humane as possible, rather than forcing middle class
Afghan families to pay smugglers to transport them across borders.
Afghanistan is once again facing a blanket of darkness, and the future there is as uncertain as
ever. The scenes from the airport will haunt us for a long time to come. But let us take action
now to ensure that the result is not a humanitarian crisis as well.
In 1980, during the middle of the night, my family departed Afghanistan with no
belongings. Forty-one years later, I left in almost exactly the same manner.
History rhymes everywhere, but especially so in Afghanistan.
Now we must deal with the fallout. The Taliban were able quickly to take control
of the country. Now they must show if they can govern. There are reports that the
Taliban Economic Commission has begun to meet, but have only made
peripheral decisions such as banning scrap metal exports. Only on Monday was a
new central bank governor appointed.
Both the Taliban and the international community must quickly make plans to
deal with this grave situation. Afghanistan was already facing the triple threat of
Covid-19, conflict and drought. Even before recent events, the World Food
Programme had announced that up to 14m Afghans were food insecure.
Now, the country must also deal with an economic shock. With the freezing of
$9bn of foreign reserves, import coverage has dropped from more than 15
months to only two days overnight.
International aid flows are likewise expected to decline. Germany has already
announced a suspension of $300m in aid, while the IMF has suspended its
$440m SDR allocation. During the G7 meeting this week, it is expected that UK
prime minister Boris Johnson might call for new sanctions.
I expect the economic impact to be felt in three main ways. First, the afghani
currency will probably decline, increasing inflation. There are already reports
that wheat prices have doubled in Kabul. Even those depositors with money will
not be able to fully withdraw their savings.
Second, aggregate real income will probably fall. Government revenues under the
Taliban will drop significantly. As donors provide less fiscal support, government
services will have to be cut. Many government employees will be laid off and, for
those that remain, salaries will be much lower.
Third, refugee flows will increase. We are seeing a minor flow now at Kabul
Airport, but both neighboring and further-off countries should expect millions
more Afghan refugees to arrive over time.
Some have minimized the economic issue by writing that Taliban revenues from
illegal mining, opium production or trade routes are large. Or that China or
Russia will intercede with large investments. These are over-optimistic scenarios.
Taliban revenues from such sources could be considered relatively large when
only running an insurgency campaign. They are wholly inadequate to operate a
functional government.
Furthermore, the assertion that China, Russia or even Pakistan will invest large
sums in Afghanistan is not realistic. In 2019, as Afghanistan’s minister of
commerce, I attended the second Belt and Road Initiative conference in Beijing.
However much we tried, Afghanistan was never part of the BRI, and I would not
expect it to be a part of the initiative in the near future.
Even if such investments were to occur, they cannot replace the combined
financial firepower of the main bilateral and multilateral donor agencies. The
Taliban must negotiate with such partners if they expect to be able to access
international reserves or receive donor funding. That will require adherence to
global standards of governance and education for women, among other issues.
Such negotiations take time, if they come to fruition at all. Afghanistan will face a
humanitarian crisis long before then. Therefore, the international community
must immediately plan to provide higher levels of aid in the form of food and
financial assistance through the United Nations.
Let me be clear. If the current situation persists, refugee flows will increase. The
international community should try to make the flow as humane as possible,
rather than forcing middle class Afghan families to pay smugglers to transport
them across borders.
Afghanistan is once again facing a blanket of darkness, and the future there is as
uncertain as ever. The scenes from the airport will haunt us for a long time to
come. But let us take action now to ensure that the result is not a humanitarian
crisis as well.