PRIMERA ARTERNATIVA: VINOS NACIONALES

Año Xi Yi XiYi Xi^2 ei Yi^2 𝐲 ̂=𝒂+𝒃𝒙 𝐲 ̂=𝟗𝟓𝟕.𝟐𝟕𝟒+𝟏𝟕𝟔.𝟗𝟖𝟖𝒙

2004 $ - 0 0
2005 -4 $ 388,978 -$ 1,555,912 16 $ 139,656 $ 151,303,884,484 𝑦 ̂_05=957.274+176.988(−4)=249.322 𝑒_05=388.978−(249.322)=139.656
2006 -3 $ 474,748 -$ 1,424,244 9 $ 48,438 $ 225,385,663,504 𝑦 ̂_06=957.274+176.988(−3)=426.310 𝑒_06=474.748−(426.310)=48.438
2007 -2 $ 569,935 -$ 1,139,870 4 -$ 33,363 $ 324,825,904,225 𝑦 ̂_07=957.274+176.988(−2)=603.298 𝑒_07=569.935−(603.298)=−33.363
2008 -1 $ 695,606 -$ 695,606 1 -$ 84,680 $ 483,867,707,236 𝑦 ̂_08=957.274+176.988(−1)=780.286 𝑒_08=695.606−(780.286)=−84.680
2009 0 $ 855,943 $ - 0 -$ 101,331 $ 732,638,419,249 𝑦 ̂_09=957.274+176.988(0)=957.274 𝑒_09=855.943−(957.274)=−101.331
2010 1 $ 1,026,704 $ 1,026,704 1 -$ 107,558 $ 1,054,121,103,616 𝑦 ̂_10=957.274+176.988(1)=1.134.262 𝑒_10=1.026.704−(1.134.262)=−107.558
2011 2 $ 1,242,825 $ 2,485,650 4 -$ 68,425 $ 1,544,613,980,625 𝑦 ̂_11=957.274+176.988(2)=1.311.250 𝑒_11=1.242.825−(1.311.250)=−68.425
2012 3 $ 1,520,348 $ 4,561,044 9 $ 32,110 $ 2,311,458,041,104 𝑦 ̂_12=957.274+176.988(3)=1.488.238 𝑒_12=1.520.348−(1.488.238)=32.110
2013 4 $ 1,840,381 $ 7,361,524 16 $ 175,155 $ 3,387,002,225,161 𝑦 ̂_13=957.274+176.988(4)=1.665.226 𝑒_13=1.840.381−(1.665.226)=175.155
TOTAL 0 $ 8,615,468 $ 10,619,290 60 $ 2 $ 10,215,216,929,204

2014 𝑦 ̂_14=957.274+176.988(5)=1.842.215
b=(𝑛∑▒ 〖𝑋𝑌− b=(∑▒𝑋𝑌)/(∑▒𝑋^2 )= 10.619.290/60
(∑▒ 〖𝑋 ) = 176.988 2015 𝑦 ̂_15=957.274+176.988(6)=2.019.203

(∑▒ 〖𝑌 〖𝑌𝑖
) 〗〗〗 𝑎=y ̂= 8.615.468/9=957.274
𝑎=(∑▒ −𝑏∑ )
/(𝑛∑▒
▒ 〖𝑋 ^2−
𝑋𝑖〗)/𝑛
(∑▒ 〖𝑋 ) 〗 ^2 𝒓=(𝒏∑▒𝑿𝒀−(∑▒𝑿)(∑▒𝒀))/√([𝒏∑▒ 〖𝑿 ^𝟐−(∑▒ 〖𝑿 ) 〗 ^𝟐 〗 ][𝒏∑▒ 〖𝒀 ^𝟐−(∑▒ 〖𝒀 ) 〗 ^𝟐 〗 ] )

〗)
𝒓=(9∗10.619.290−(0)(8.615.468))/√([9∗60−(0)][9∗10.215.216.929.204−(74.226.288.859.024)] )

𝒓"= 0.977291
"
SEGUNDA ARTERNATIVA: IMPUESTOS DE PREVISIÓN SOCIAL

𝐲 ̂=𝒂+𝒃𝒙 𝐲 ̂=𝟔𝟕𝟔.𝟑𝟓𝟓+𝟏𝟐𝟗.𝟕𝟑𝟕𝒙
Año Xi Yi XiYi Xi^2 ei Yi^2
2007 -3 $ 344,053 -$ 1,032,159 9 $ 56,909 $ 118,372,466,809 𝑦 ̂_07=676.355+129.737(−3)=287.144 𝑒_07=344.053−(287.144)=56.909
2008 -2 $ 419,745 -$ 839,490 4 $ 2,864 $ 176,185,865,025 𝑦 ̂_08=676.355+129.737(−2)=416.881 𝑒_08=419.745−(416.881)=2.864
2009 -1 $ 541,471 -$ 541,471 1 -$ 5,147 $ 293,190,843,841 𝑦 ̂_09=676.355+129.737(−1)=546.618 𝑒_09=542.471−(546.618)=−5.147
2010 0 $ 623,179 $ - 0 -$ 53,176 $ 388,352,066,041 𝑦 ̂_10=676.355+129.737(0)=676.355 𝑒_10=623.179−(676.355)=−53.176
2011 1 $ 748,376 $ 748,376 1 -$ 57,715 $ 560,066,637,376 𝑦 ̂_11=676.355+129.737(1)=806.091 𝑒_11=748.376−(806.091)=−57.715
2012 2 $ 875,599 $ 1,751,198 4 $ 60,229 $ 766,673,608,801 𝑦 ̂_12=676.355+129.737(2)=935.828 𝑒_12=875.599−(935.828)=−60. 229
2013 3 $ 1,182,059 $ 3,546,177 9 $ 116,494 $ 1,397,263,479,481 𝑦 ̂_13=676.355+129.737(3)=1.065.565 𝑒_13=1.182.059−(1.065.565)=116.494
TOTAL 0 $ 4,734,482 $ 3,632,631 28 $ 120,458 $ 3,700,104,967,374

2014 𝑦 ̂_14=676.355+129.737(4)=1.195.302
b=(𝑛∑▒ 〖𝑋𝑌− b=(∑▒𝑋𝑌)/(∑▒𝑋^2 )= 3.632.631/28 =
129.737
(∑▒ 〖𝑋 ) 2015 𝑦 ̂_15=676.355+129.737(5)=1.325.039
(∑▒ 〖𝑌 )〖𝑌𝑖
𝑎=(∑▒ 〗〗〗
−𝑏∑ ) 𝑎=y ̂= 4.734.482/7=676.355
/(𝑛∑▒ 〖𝑋 ^2−
▒𝑋𝑖〗 )/𝑛 𝒓=(𝒏∑▒𝑿𝒀−(∑▒𝑿)(∑▒𝒀))/√([𝒏∑▒ 〖𝑿 ^𝟐−(∑▒ 〖𝑿 ) 〗 ^𝟐 〗 ][𝒏∑▒ 〖𝒀 ^𝟐−(∑▒ 〖𝒀 ) 〗 ^𝟐 〗 ] )
(∑▒ 〖𝑋 ) 〗 ^2
〗)
𝒓=(73.632.631−(0))4.734.482))/√([7∗28−(0)][7∗3.700.104.967.374−(22.415.319.808.324)] )

𝒓"= 0.972891

"
TERCERA ARTERNATIVA: ESTAMPILLA DE PRODESARROLLO

𝐲 ̂=𝒂+𝒃𝒙 𝐲 ̂=𝟐.𝟏𝟎𝟓.𝟓𝟐𝟒+𝟓𝟎𝟗.𝟏𝟓𝟔𝒙
Año Xi Yi XiYi Xi^2 ei Yi^2
2009 -2 $ 1,179,480 -$ 2,358,960 4 $ 92,267 $ 1,391,173,070,400 𝑦 ̂_09=2.105.524+509.156(−2)=1.087.212 𝑒_09=1.179.480−(1.087.212)=92.267
2010 -1 $ 1,592,298 -$ 1,592,298 1 -$ 4,070 $ 2,535,412,920,804 𝑦 ̂_10=2.105.524+509.156(−1)=1.596.368 𝑒_10=1.592.298−(1.596.368)=−4.070
2011 0 $ 1,942,603 $ - 0 -$ 162,921 $ 3,773,706,415,609 𝑦 ̂_11=2.105.524+509.156(0)=2.105.524 𝑒_11=1.942.603−(2.105.524)=−162.921
2012 1 $ 2,583,662 $ 2,583,662 1 -$ 31,018 $ 6,675,309,330,244 𝑦 ̂_12=2.105.524+509.156(1)=2.614.680 𝑒_12=2.583.662−(2.614.680)=−31.018
2013 2 $ 3,229,578 $ 6,459,156 4 $ 105,741 $ 10,430,174,058,084 𝑦 ̂_13=2.105.524+509.156(2)=3.123.836 𝑒_13=3.229.578−(3.123.836)=105.741
TOTAL 0 $ 10,527,621 $ 5,091,560 10 -$ 1 $ 24,805,775,795,141

b=(∑▒𝑋𝑌)/(∑▒𝑋^2 )= 2014 𝑦 ̂_14=2.105.524+509.156(3)=3.632.992

b=(𝑛∑▒ 〖𝑋𝑌−
5.091.560/10=509.156
(∑▒ 〖𝑋 ) 2015 𝑦 ̂_15=2.105.524+509.156(4)=4.142.148

(∑▒ 〖𝑌 )〖𝑌𝑖
𝑎=(∑▒ 〗〗〗
−𝑏∑ ) 𝑎=y ̂= 10.527.621/5=2.105.524
/(𝑛∑▒ 〖𝑋 ^2−
▒𝑋𝑖〗 )/𝑛
𝒓=(𝒏∑▒𝑿𝒀−(∑▒𝑿)(∑▒𝒀))/√([𝒏∑▒ 〖𝑿 ^𝟐−(∑▒ 〖𝑿 ) 〗 ^𝟐 〗 ][𝒏∑▒ 〖𝒀 ^𝟐−(∑▒ 〖𝒀 ) 〗 ^𝟐 〗 ] )
(∑▒ 〖𝑋 ) 〗 ^2
〗)
𝒓=(73.632.631−(0))4.734.482))/√([7∗28−(0)][7∗3.700.104.967.374−(22.415.319.808.324)] )

𝒓"= 0.991016
"