Problem # 7 Problem # 8

t At t At Ft-Model 1 Ft-Model 2
1 24 1 68.5
2 50 2 56
3 12 3 67.5
4 42 4 98
5 49 5 68.5 77.5
6 47 6 103 71.7 75.9
7 11 7 79.5 78.6 88.1
8 24 8 102 83.3 86.2
9 41 9 105.5 90.2 92.1
10 10 10 97 91.7 99
11 43 11 77.5 97.4 98.8
12 32 12 111 92.3 91.4
13 28 13 89.5 98.6 97.6
14 33 14 114 96.1 94.3
15 42 15 125.5 97.8 102.4
16 26 16 90 103.5 113.4
17 40 17 117.5 106 105.4
18 47 18 135 107.3 110.5
19 17 19 111.5 116.4 119.8
20 23 20 127 115.9 117.6
21 44 21 106.5 116.2 123
22 32 22 113 119.5 116.5
23 26 23 114.5 118.6 113.7
24 18 24 111 114.5 113.7
25 25 126.5 114.4 112
26 155 114.3 118.1
27 131.5 124 133.6
28 141 127.7 135.5
 Problem # 9

Ft-Model 3 t At
1 100.88
2 76.2
3 61.46 `
63 4 113.62
72.8 5 85
78 6 71.82
90.8 7 123.76
82.7 8 96.8
95.8 9 75.88
93.7 10 143
101.5 11 106.6
91.3 12 72.94
93.2 13 147.94
90.7 14 121.4
105.8 15 79.1
108.7 16 169.78
111.8 17 121.2
113 18 85.96
116.2 19 159.12
119.3 20 126
123.5 21 89.32
117 22 188.76
113.5 23 134.8
109.3 24 106.68
113.8 25 201.5
119.3 26 145.6
130.8 27 98.84
138.7 28 205.14
29 151.4
30 115.5
 0.14
t At 4-WMA Exponential 5 SMA
1 24 70 w1 0.36
2 50 63.56 w2 0.28
3 12 61.6616 w3 0.21
4 42 54.708976 w4 0.15
5 49 32.58 52.92971936
6 47 39.42 52.37955865 35.4
7 11 41.26 51.626420439 40
8 24 33.71 45.938721577 32.2
9 41 28.94 42.867300556 34.6
10 10 30.84 42.605878479 34.4
11 43 21.77 38.041055492 26.6
12 32 30.49 38.735307723 25.8
13 28 31.81 37.792364642 30
14 33 29.57 36.421433592 30.8
15 42 32.89 35.942432889 29.2
16 26 35.04 36.790492284 35.6
17 40 32.25 35.279823365 32.2
18 47 35.45 35.940648094 33.8
19 17 39.88 37.48895736 37.6
20 23 31.58 34.62050333 34.4
21 44 28.91 32.993632864 30.6
22 32 32.9 34.534524263 34.2
23 26 31.22 34.179690866 32.6
24 18 31.01 33.034534145 28.4
25 27.08 30.929699365 28.6
t At Ft-Model 1 Ft-Model 2 Ft-Model 3
1 68.5
2 56
3 67.5
4 98 63 0.357143
5 68.5 77.5 72.8 0.131387 0.062774
6 103 71.7 75.9 78 0.303883 0.263107 0.242718
7 79.5 78.6 88.1 90.8 0.011321 0.108176 0.142138
8 102 83.3 86.2 82.7 0.183333 0.154902 0.189216
9 105.5 90.2 92.1 95.8 0.145024 0.127014 0.091943
10 97 91.7 99 93.7 0.054639 0.020619 0.034021
11 77.5 97.4 98.8 101.5 0.256774 0.274839 0.309677
12 111 92.3 91.4 91.3 0.168468 0.176577 0.177477
13 89.5 98.6 97.6 93.2 0.101676 0.090503 0.041341
14 114 96.1 94.3 90.7 0.157018 0.172807 0.204386
15 125.5 97.8 102.4 105.8 0.220717 0.184064 0.156972
16 90 103.5 113.4 108.7 0.15 0.26 0.207778
17 117.5 106 105.4 111.8 0.097872 0.102979 0.048511
18 135 107.3 110.5 113 0.205185 0.181481 0.162963
19 111.5 116.4 119.8 116.2 0.043946 0.074439 0.042152
20 127 115.9 117.6 119.3 0.087402 0.074016 0.06063
21 106.5 116.2 123 123.5 0.09108 0.15493 0.159624
22 113 119.5 116.5 117 0.057522 0.030973 0.035398
23 114.5 118.6 113.7 113.5 0.035808 0.006987 0.008734
24 111 114.5 113.7 109.3 0.031532 0.024324 0.015315
25 126.5 114.4 112 113.8 0.095652 0.114625 0.100395
26 155 114.3 118.1 119.3 0.262581 0.238065 0.230323
27 131.5 124 133.6 130.8 0.057034 0.01597 0.005323
28 141 127.7 135.5 138.7 0.094326 0.039007 0.016312
12.66% 12.59% 12.41%
Best
 t At Season Average, xi
1 100.88 0.649372 Season 01 155.35
2 76.2 0.654077 Season 02 116.5
3 61.46 0.716735 Season 03 85.75
4 113.62 0.731381 Season 01
5 85 0.729614 Season 02
6 71.82 0.837551 Season 03
7 123.76 0.796653 Season 01
8 96.8 0.830901 Season 02
9 75.88 0.884898 Season 03
10 143 0.920502 Season 01
11 106.6 0.915021 Season 02
12 72.94 0.850612 Season 03
13 147.94 0.952301 Season 01
14 121.4 1.04206 Season 02
15 79.1 0.922449 Season 03
16 169.78 1.092887 Season 01
17 121.2 1.040343 Season 02
18 85.96 1.002449 Season 03
19 159.12 1.024268 Season 01
20 126 1.081545 Season 02
21 89.32 1.041633 Season 03
22 188.76 1.215063 Season 01
23 134.8 1.157082 Season 02
24 106.68 1.244082 Season 03
25 201.5 1.297071 Season 01
26 145.6 1.249785 Season 02
27 98.84 1.152653 Season 03
28 205.14 1.320502 Season 01
29 151.4 1.299571 Season 02
30 115.5 1.346939 Season 03
average 119.2
 Seasonal Indexes
Season 01 0.77
Season 02 0.98
Season 03 0.72

Sum of Indexes
t At 1 2 3
1 24 70
2 50 63.56
3 12 61.6616
4 42 54.70898
5 49 32.58 52.92972
6 47 39.42 52.37956 35.4
7 11 41.26 51.62642 40
8 24 33.71 45.93872 32.2
9 41 28.94 42.8673 34.6
10 10 30.84 42.60588 34.4
11 43 21.77 38.04106 26.6
12 32 30.49 38.73531 25.8
13 28 31.81 37.79236 30
14 33 29.57 36.42143 30.8
15 42 32.89 35.94243 29.2
16 26 35.04 36.79049 35.6
17 40 32.25 35.27982 32.2
18 47 35.45 35.94065 33.8
19 17 39.88 37.48896 37.6
20 23 31.58 34.6205 34.4
21 44 28.91 32.99363 30.6
22 32 32.9 34.53452 34.2
23 26 31.22 34.17969 32.6
24 18 31.01 33.03453 28.4
25 27.08 30.9297 28.6
#7. Make forecast for period 25 using (i) 4 period weighted moving average with weights. W1 =0.36, w2 = 0.28, w3=0.21, w4 = 0.15;
(ii) Exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.14, and
(iii) 5- period simple moving average. Use the data labelled problem # 7 (10 + 15 +5)

Problem # 7
0.14 0.14
t At 4-WMA Exponential 5-SMA t At 4-WMA EXP-
1 24 70 1 24 70
2 50 63.56 2 50 63.56
3 12 61.66 3 12 61.66
4 42 54.71 4 42 54.71
5 49 32.58 52.93 5 49 32.58 52.93
6 47 39.42 52.38 35.40 W1 0.36 6 47 39.42 52.38
7 11 41.26 51.63 40.00 W2 0.28 7 11 41.26 51.63
8 24 33.71 45.94 32.20 W3 0.21 8 24 33.71 45.94
9 41 28.94 42.87 34.60 W4 0.15 9 41 28.94 42.87
10 10 30.84 42.61 34.40 10 10 30.84 42.61
11 43 21.77 38.04 26.60 11 43 21.77 38.04
12 32 30.49 38.74 25.80 12 32 30.49 38.74
13 28 31.81 37.79 30.00 13 28 31.81 37.79
14 33 29.57 36.42 30.80 14 33 29.57 36.42
15 42 32.89 35.94 29.20 15 42 32.89 35.94
16 26 35.04 36.79 35.60 16 26 35.04 36.79
17 40 32.25 35.28 32.20 17 40 32.25 35.28
18 47 35.45 35.94 33.80 18 47 35.45 35.94
19 17 39.88 37.49 37.60 19 17 39.88 37.49
20 23 31.58 34.62 34.40 20 23 31.58 34.62
21 44 28.91 32.99 30.60 21 44 28.91 32.99
22 32 32.9 34.53 34.20 22 32 32.9 34.53
23 26 31.22 34.18 32.60 23 26 31.22 34.18
24 18 31.01 33.03 28.40 24 18 31.01 33.03
25 27.08 30.93 28.60 25 27.08 30.93
 Sigma 0.14
t At 4-WMA Exponential 5-SMA
.=(1-alpha)*Expo+(alpha*At) 1 24 70
2 50 63.56
3 12 61.66
4 42 54.71
5 49 32.58 52.93
35.40 6 47 39.42 52.38 35.40
40.00 7 11 41.26 51.63 40.00
32.20 8 24 33.71 45.94 32.20
34.60 9 41 28.94 42.87 34.60
34.40 10 10 30.84 42.61 34.40
26.60 11 43 21.77 38.04 26.60
25.80 12 32 30.49 38.74 25.80
30.00 13 28 31.81 37.79 30.00
30.80 14 33 29.57 36.42 30.80
29.20 15 42 32.89 35.94 29.20
35.60 16 26 35.04 36.79 35.60
32.20 17 40 32.25 35.28 32.20
33.80 18 47 35.45 35.94 33.80
37.60 19 17 39.88 37.49 37.60
34.40 20 23 31.58 34.62 34.40
30.60 21 44 28.91 32.99 30.60
34.20 22 32 32.9 34.53 34.20
32.60 23 26 31.22 34.18 32.60
28.40 24 18 31.01 33.03 28.40
28.60 25 27.08 30.93 28.60
#8. Using the data labelled problem # 8, determine MAPE for the forecast
made by the three models that are labelled as model 1, model 2, and model 3; identify the best model on the basis of MAPE. (25 points)

t At Ft-Model 1 Ft-Model 2 Ft-Model 3 Assessment: MAPE

1 68.5 Ft-Model 1 Ft-Model 2 Ft-Model 3
2 56
3 67.5
4 98 63 0.36 0.36
5 68.5 77.5 72.8 0.13 0.06 0.13 0.06
6 103 71.7 75.9 78 0.30 0.26 0.24 0.30 0.26 0.24
7 79.5 78.6 88.1 90.8 0.01 0.11 0.14 0.01 0.11 0.14
8 102 83.3 86.2 82.7 0.18 0.15 0.18 0.15 0.19
9 105.5 90.2 92.1 95.8 0.15 0.13 0.15 0.13 0.09
10 97 91.7 99 93.7 0.05 0.02 0.05 0.02 0.03
11 77.5 97.4 98.8 101.5 0.26 0.27 0.26 0.27 0.31
12 111 92.3 91.4 91.3 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.17 0.18 0.18
13 89.5 98.6 97.6 93.2 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.04
14 114 96.1 94.3 90.7 0.16 0.17 0.03 0.16 0.17 0.20
15 125.5 97.8 102.4 105.8 0.22 0.18 0.31 0.22 0.18 0.16
16 90 103.5 113.4 108.7 0.15 0.26 0.18 0.15 0.26 0.21
17 117.5 106 105.4 111.8 0.10 0.10 0.04 0.10 0.10 0.05
18 135 107.3 110.5 113 0.21 0.18 0.20 0.21 0.18 0.16
19 111.5 116.4 119.8 116.2 0.04 0.07 0.16 0.04 0.07 0.04
20 127 115.9 117.6 119.3 0.09 0.07 0.21 0.09 0.07 0.06
21 106.5 116.2 123 123.5 0.09 0.15 0.05 0.09 0.15 0.16
22 113 119.5 116.5 117 0.06 0.03 0.16 0.06 0.03 0.04
23 114.5 118.6 113.7 113.5 0.04 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.01
24 111 114.5 113.7 109.3 0.03 0.02 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.02
25 126.5 114.4 112 113.8 0.10 0.11 0.16 0.10 0.11 0.10
26 155 114.3 118.1 119.3 0.26 0.24 0.04 0.26 0.24 0.23
27 131.5 124 133.6 130.8 0.06 0.02 0.01 0.06 0.02 0.01
28 141 127.7 135.5 138.7 0.09 0.04 0.02 =ABS((At-model1)/At) 0.09 0.04 0.02
0.10
12.66 12.59 0.23 12.66% 12.59% 12.41%
0.01
0.02

12.41
Best ans
0.00
#9. Using the data labelled problem # 9, construct a forecasting model for a THREE seasons product using the method I taught you in class. (30 points)

Problem # 9
Deseasonal Demand
t At Atd Season Average, xi Seasonal Indexes
1 100.88 77.60 77.60 Season 01 155.35 Season 01
2 76.2 77.76 77.76 Season 02 116.50 Season 02
3 61.46 85.36 85.36 Season 03 85.75 Season 03
4 113.62 87.40 87.40 Season 01
5 85 86.73 86.73 Season 02 155.35 Sum of Indexes
6 71.82 99.75 99.75 Season 03 116.50
7 123.76 95.20 95.20 Season 01 85.75 Season 01
8 96.8 98.78 98.78 Season 02 Season 02
9 75.88 105.39 105.39 Season 03 Season 03
10 143 110.00 110.00 Season 01 Total
11 106.6 108.78 108.78 Season 02
12 72.94 101.31 101.31 Season 03
13 147.94 113.80 113.80 Season 01
14 121.4 123.88 123.88 Season 02
15 79.1 109.86 109.86 Season 03
16 169.78 130.60 130.60 Season 01
17 121.2 123.67 123.67 Season 02
18 85.96 119.39 119.39 Season 03
19 159.12 122.40 122.40 Season 01
20 126 128.57 128.57 Season 02
21 89.32 124.06 124.06 Season 03
22 188.76 145.20 145.20 Season 01
23 134.8 137.55 137.55 Season 02
24 106.68 148.17 148.17 Season 03
25 201.5 155.00 155.00 Season 01
26 145.6 148.57 148.57 Season 02
27 98.84 137.28 137.28 Season 03
 28 205.14 157.80 157.80 Season 01
29 151.4 154.49 154.49 Season 02
30 115.5 160.42 160.42 Season 03
Average of At= 119.20

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.970220618439818
R Square 0.941328048445743
Adjusted R 0.93923262160452
Standard E 6.12459836357251
Observatio 30

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 16850.9241874 16850.92 449.229736837835 8.8052808E-19
Residual 28 1050.29974322 37.51071
Total 29 17901.2239307

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%
Intercept 76.7164659733626 2.29349555629 33.44958 4.04091652655E-24 72.018453296 81.41448 72.0184532962
t 2.73818011446328 0.12918966253 21.19504 8.80528078983E-19 2.4735470871 3.002813 2.47354708708

Here, Deseasonal Forecast is

Ftd= 2.74*t + 76.72 158.92
So the Seasonal Forecast is Seasonal Indexes
For Season 1, Ft1= Ftd*1.30 206.596 Season 01
For Season 2, Ft2= Ftd*0.98 155.7416 Season 02
For Season 3, Ft3= Ftd* 0.72 114.4224 Season 03

Ftd Season 01 1.4

Season 02 1.15
Season 03 0.85
Season 04 0.6
periods Ftd Forecast
Season 01 80 282 169.2
Season 02 81 284.8 398.72
Season 03 82 287.6 330.74
in class. (30 points)

easonal Indexes
1.30 Atd 353.1312
0.98 285.508
0.72 245.1204

3.0 SUMMARY OUTPUT

1.30 Regression Statistics

0.98 Multiple R 0.9702206184398
0.72 R Square 0.9413280484457
3.00 Adjusted R Squ 0.9392326216045
Standard Error 6.1245983635725
Observations 30

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 16850.9241874 16850.92 449.2297 8.805E-19
Residual 28 1050.29974322 37.51071
Total 29 17901.2239307

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Intercept 76.716465973363 2.29349555629 33.44958 4.041E-24 72.01845 81.41448 72.01845
X Variable 1 2.7381801144633 0.12918966253 21.19504 8.805E-19 2.473547 3.002813 2.473547
Upper 95.0%
81.41448
3.002813
nal Indexes
1.30
0.98
0.72
Upper 95.0%
81.41448
3.002813
Ftd = 3.45 ∗t + 84 s1 1.40
s2 1.15
s3 0.85
F80d 58*2.8t s4 0.60
282 4.00
F80 169.2

F81d 58*2.8t
284.8
F81 398.72

F82d 58*2.8t
287.6
F82 330.74