AÑO Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun

1990 2458.2 -166.8 364.8 12.3 -109.8 -65.5

1991 25.5 1214.6 1490.1 474.6 79.4 -24.7
1992 2.8 690.9 1429.5 390.5 769.2 295.6
1993 -103.0 1487.8 2129.4 483.2 252.0 133.6
1994 -211.9 788.2 1641.0 363.6 91.3 4.5
1995 -77.1 2244.9 1257.5 209.2 22.5 33.1
1996 4778.2 578.2 767.5 257.7 145.3 -70.0
1997 18.2 287.5 1992.8 580.3 301.0 335.2
1998 41.7 5735.5 7586.0 2420.0 1113.5 558.2
1999 1334.1 2171.5 2230.6 519.7 196.3 85.3
2000 -8.4 526.2 3188.6 1103.9 937.5 329.5
2001 1397.6 640.8 3497.7 1084.0 417.4 83.6
2002 -168.7 1313.1 3055.6 924.9 246.9 -41.8
2003 24.4 832.9 524.7 34.4 -17.1 -57.2
2004 2147.9 1068.9 1562.1 418.3 183.7 103.6
2005 2994.9 334.2 1713.5 570.5 93.7 74.6
2006 -121.5 2959.4 2516.7 844.5 217.8 68.0
2007 3879.6 153.5 2791.3 800.8 154.4 32.6
2008 4740.6 2606.8 3307.9 865.1 205.4 205.9
2009 4900.8 1300.9 1573.4 481.2 210.7 34.7
2010 3912.6 1257.2 3791.5 1119.7 377.7 23.1
2011 -17.2 1172.5 564.7 89.1 3.4 -103.4
2012 3714.3 1348.0 1360.7 301.1 291.4 235.0
2013 -37.5 598.0 4085.2 1424.3 356.5 98.1
2014 3348.2 762.1 311.5 -13.3 386.2 342.5
2015 -134.7 661.8 5397.2 1735.7 1179.3 450.1
2016 -128.5 1759.3 1690.0 492.3 69.8 7.0
2017 3444.8 2405.7 5659.9 1657.8 989.4 320.4
2018 -67.8 808.9 516.7 56.6 262.8 58.1
2019 34.4 2283.4 2502.2 936.2 265.2 -0.5
2020 133.3 1115.2 2413.2 718.8 262.8 116.7
2021 -7.2 621.4 2742.7 939.7 319.9 98.6
 Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic PMAX PMAX(M3/S)
110.8 53.1 49.7 -18.7 -37.1 27.7 2458.2 245.823
100.5 -0.1 -52.3 -121.3 -211.3 -89.5 1490.1 149.008
65.5 -90.2 -49.3 58.9 -10.9 -71.8 1429.5 142.946
50.3 -24.4 -52.6 -134.4 -86.4 10.2 2129.4 212.938
101.9 65.1 135.9 64.4 19.9 65.6 1641.0 164.096
104.2 11.4 74.7 70.0 198.3 151.0 2244.9 224.491
101.7 36.2 59.3 91.8 147.8 128.8 4778.2 477.820
124.2 -49.2 78.9 208.4 666.0 1852.8 1992.8 199.275
266.9 26.2 -173.4 3.9 36.4 -13.4 7586.0 758.604
-12.5 93.1 -49.1 -86.9 -58.2 74.7 2230.6 223.055
78.7 125.5 -137.8 -194.5 -17.0 -61.6 3188.6 318.861
24.0 11.9 -127.5 -157.9 -124.2 -8.7 3497.7 349.771
-115.3 -75.1 -121.2 59.8 42.0 262.0 3055.6 305.561
-70.0 -112.8 -38.5 -11.2 -56.4 97.5 832.9 83.294
-60.4 -93.9 172.9 43.2 -11.4 -48.4 2147.9 214.790
-51.4 -40.8 10.3 74.4 -66.0 -34.8 2994.9 299.486
245.2 146.4 61.4 -78.0 49.4 123.3 2959.4 295.943
0.9 -15.9 -4.0 46.8 24.1 13.7 3879.6 387.960
-75.6 7.2 -15.8 -11.7 132.4 -24.3 4740.6 474.060
111.5 -9.2 61.8 64.3 -4.0 273.6 4900.8 490.080
114.8 -18.7 31.6 88.4 58.1 103.6 3912.6 391.260
59.1 66.0 -120.5 66.2 64.1 -72.4 1172.5 117.255
153.6 117.5 23.7 -3.3 -27.7 17.4 3714.3 371.430
-79.1 154.9 35.5 49.4 81.5 196.1 4085.2 408.524
207.8 -27.4 10.0 134.1 138.4 32.4 3348.2 334.820
293.0 101.7 23.5 -35.2 -15.7 -111.9 5397.2 539.718
-30.1 -102.8 87.3 -64.5 -0.1 185.3 1759.3 175.927
150.7 17.4 -28.2 -95.7 58.9 138.5 5659.9 565.990
89.4 207.9 162.3 92.7 84.3 324.4 808.9 80.890
48.9 -7.4 -149.7 -70.0 -27.6 338.2 2502.2 250.217
61.9 74.1 -46.4 -72.7 -15.9 250.0 2413.2 241.324
32.2 -27.6 48.5 -104.6 -114.8 -41.0 2742.7 274.274
AÑO Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul
1990 2458.2 -166.8 364.8 12.3 -109.8 -65.5 110.8
1991 25.5 1214.6 1490.1 474.6 79.4 -24.7 100.5
1992 2.8 690.9 1429.5 390.5 769.2 295.6 65.5
1993 -103.0 1487.8 2129.4 483.2 252.0 133.6 50.3
1994 -211.9 788.2 1641.0 363.6 91.3 4.5 101.9
1995 -77.1 2244.9 1257.5 209.2 22.5 33.1 104.2
1996 4778.2 578.2 767.5 257.7 145.3 -70.0 101.7
1997 18.2 287.5 1992.8 580.3 301.0 335.2 124.2
1998 41.7 5735.5 7586.0 2420.0 1113.5 558.2 266.9
1999 1334.1 2171.5 2230.6 519.7 196.3 85.3 -12.5
2000 -8.4 526.2 3188.6 1103.9 937.5 329.5 78.7
2001 1397.6 640.8 3497.7 1084.0 417.4 83.6 24.0
2002 -168.7 1313.1 3055.6 924.9 246.9 -41.8 -115.3
2003 24.4 832.9 524.7 34.4 -17.1 -57.2 -70.0
2004 2147.9 1068.9 1562.1 418.3 183.7 103.6 -60.4
2005 2994.9 334.2 1713.5 570.5 93.7 74.6 -51.4
2006 -121.5 2959.4 2516.7 844.5 217.8 68.0 245.2
2007 3879.6 153.5 2791.3 800.8 154.4 32.6 0.9
2008 4740.6 2606.8 3307.9 865.1 205.4 205.9 -75.6
2009 4900.8 1300.9 1573.4 481.2 210.7 34.7 111.5
2010 3912.6 1257.2 3791.5 1119.7 377.7 23.1 114.8

2011 -17.2 1172.5 564.7 89.1 3.4 -103.4 59.1

2012 3714.3 1348.0 1360.7 301.1 291.4 235.0 153.6

2013 -37.5 598.0 4085.2 1424.3 356.5 98.1 -79.1
2014 3348.2 762.1 311.5 -13.3 386.2 342.5 207.8
2015 -134.7 661.8 5397.2 1735.7 1179.3 450.1 293.0
2016 -128.5 1759.3 1690.0 492.3 69.8 7.0 -30.1
2017 3444.8 2405.7 5659.9 1657.8 989.4 320.4 150.7
2018 -67.8 808.9 516.7 56.6 262.8 58.1 89.4
2019 34.4 2283.4 2502.2 936.2 265.2 -0.5 48.9
2020 133.3 1115.2 2413.2 718.8 262.8 116.7 61.9
2021 -7.2 621.4 2742.7 939.7 319.9 98.6 32.2
 Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic PMAX QMAX(M3/S)
53.1 49.7 -18.7 -37.1 27.7 2458.2 245.823
-0.1 -52.3 -121.3 -211.3 -89.5 1490.1 149.008
-90.2 -49.3 58.9 -10.9 -71.8 1429.5 142.946
-24.4 -52.6 -134.4 -86.4 10.2 2129.4 212.938
65.1 135.9 64.4 19.9 65.6 1641.0 164.096
11.4 74.7 70.0 198.3 151.0 2244.9 224.491
36.2 59.3 91.8 147.8 128.8 4778.2 477.820
-49.2 78.9 208.4 666.0 1852.8 1992.8 199.275
26.2 -173.4 3.9 36.4 -13.4 7586.0 758.604
93.1 -49.1 -86.9 -58.2 74.7 2230.6 223.055
125.5 -137.8 -194.5 -17.0 -61.6 3188.6 318.861
11.9 -127.5 -157.9 -124.2 -8.7 3497.7 349.771
-75.1 -121.2 59.8 42.0 262.0 3055.6 305.561
-112.8 -38.5 -11.2 -56.4 97.5 832.9 83.294
-93.9 172.9 43.2 -11.4 -48.4 2147.9 214.790
-40.8 10.3 74.4 -66.0 -34.8 2994.9 299.486
146.4 61.4 -78.0 49.4 123.3 2959.4 295.943
-15.9 -4.0 46.8 24.1 13.7 3879.6 387.960
7.2 -15.8 -11.7 132.4 -24.3 4740.6 474.060
-9.2 61.8 64.3 -4.0 273.6 4900.8 490.080
-18.7 31.6 88.4 58.1 103.6 3912.6 391.260

66.0 -120.5 66.2 64.1 -72.4 1172.5 117.255

117.5 23.7 -3.3 -27.7 17.4 3714.3 371.430

154.9 35.5 49.4 81.5 196.1 4085.2 408.524
-27.4 10.0 134.1 138.4 32.4 3348.2 334.820
101.7 23.5 -35.2 -15.7 -111.9 5397.2 539.718
-102.8 87.3 -64.5 -0.1 185.3 1759.3 175.927
17.4 -28.2 -95.7 58.9 138.5 5659.9 565.990
207.9 162.3 92.7 84.3 324.4 808.9 80.890
-7.4 -149.7 -70.0 -27.6 338.2 2502.2 250.217
74.1 -46.4 -72.7 -15.9 250.0 2413.2 241.324
-27.6 48.5 -104.6 -114.8 -41.0 2742.7 274.274
LOG(Q)
2.390623
2.173209
2.155172 PARÁMETROS ESTADISTICOS Q Log(Q)
2.328253 Número de datos (N) 32.00 32.00
2.215099 Sumatoria 9,769.49 77.733
2.351199 Valor Máximo 758.60 2.880
2.679264 Valor Mínimo 80.89 1.908
2.299453 Media: 305.30 2.429
2.880015 Varianza: 23,501.36 0.054
2.348413 Desviación Estándar: 153.30 0.232
2.503601 Coeficiente Variación: 0.50 0.095
2.543784 Coeficiente de Sesgo: 0.92 -0.432
2.485098 Aplicar pruebas para detectar datos dudosos
Se Considera:
1.920613 altos y bajos
2.332014
2.476377
2.471208 n = 32.00
2.588787 Kn = 2.591
2.675833 Kn: Valor recomendado, varia según el valor de n (significancia
2.690267
2.592465 Umbral de datos dudosos altos (xH: unidad. Logaritmicas)

𝑥_𝐻=𝑥 ̅+𝑘_𝑛⋅𝑠
2.069130

2.569877 xH=
2.611217
2.524811 Caudal maxima aceptaba
2.732167
2.245333 PH= 10xH PH=
2.752809
1.907897 NO EXISTEN DATOS DUDOSOS ALTO DE LA MUESTRA
2.398318
2.382600
2.438185 Umbral de datos dudosos bajos (xL: unidad. Logaritmicas)

𝑥_𝐿=𝑥 ̅−𝑘_𝑛⋅𝑠 xL=
Caudal minima aceptaba

PL= 10xL PL=

NO EXISTEN DATOS DUDOSOS MINIMO DE LA MUESTRA

 Estación MATAPALO
1200

1000

800
Caudal (M3/s)
600

400

200

0
detectar datos dudosos 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 2
y bajos AÑOS

Año Caudal(m3/s) Valor Máximo Valor Mínimo

según el valor de n (significancia:10%) Conclusión:

No existen datos dudosos

Cuadro: Valores para coeficiente de Kn para la prueba d

Tamaño de Tamaño de Tamaño de
Kn Kn
3.03 muestra n muestra n muestra n

10 2.036 24 2.467 38
11 2.088 25 2.486 39
12 2.134 26 2.502 40
1070.763 m3/s 13 2.175 27 2.519 41
14 2.23 28 2.534 42
TO DE LA MUESTRA 15 2.247 29 2.549 43
16 2.279 30 2.563 44
17 2.309 31 2.577 45
18 2.335 32 2.591 46
19 2.361 33 2.604 47
1.83 20 2.385 34 2.616 48
 21 2.408 35 2.628 49
22 2.429 36 2.639 50
23 2.448 37 2.65 55
67.39 m3/s

MO DE LA MUESTRA
 Año Caudal(m3/s)
PALO 1990 245.82

1991 149.01

1992 142.95

1993 212.94

1994 164.10

1995 224.49

1996 477.82

1997 199.28

1998 758.60

1999 223.06

06 007 008 009 010 011 012 013 014 015 016 017 018 019 020 021 2000 318.86
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
2001 349.77

2002 305.56

2003 83.29
r Máximo Valor Mínimo
2004 214.79

2005 299.49

2006 295.94

2007 387.96

2008 474.06

2009 490.08

Kn para la prueba de datos dudosos

Tamaño de
Kn Kn 2010 391.26
muestra n

2.661 60 2.837 2011 117.25

2.671 65 2.866 2012 371.43

2.682 70 2.893 2013 408.52

2.692 75 2.917 2014 334.82

2.700 80 2.940 2015 539.72

2.710 85 2.961 2016 175.93

2.719 90 2.981 2017 565.99

2.727 95 3.000 2018 80.89

2.736 100 3.017 2019 250.22

2.744 110 3.049 2020 241.32

2.753 120 3.078 2021 274.27

2.760 130 3.104
2.768 140 3.13
2.804
Valor Máximo Valor Mínimo
1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39

1070.76 67.39
 ANALISIS DE CONSIST

AÑO Qmáx m3/s

1990 245.8230 Serie
1991 149.0077 800.0000
1992 142.9458
700.0000
1993 212.9379
600.0000
1994 164.0964
500.0000
1995 224.4909

Q (m3/s)
1996 400.0000
477.8200
1997 199.2752 300.0000
1998 758.6044 200.0000
1999 223.0553 100.0000
2000 318.8610 0.0000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000
2001 349.7712
2002 305.5610
2003 83.2939
2004 214.7900
2005 299.4860
2006 295.9426
2007 387.9600
CONSISTENCIA DE LA MED
2008 474.0600
2009 490.0800 Submuestra 1
2010 391.2600 n= 24
2011 117.2547 𝑥 ̅= 304.430
2012 371.4300 𝑺(𝒙)= 151.737
2013 408.5236 Sp = 154.000
2014 334.8200 Sd = 62.870
2015 539.7184 tc = -0.055
2016 175.9272 tt = 2.042
2017 565.9899
2018 80.8904
2019 250.2175
2020 241.3236
2021 274.2742

Conclusión: Las medias son iguales (estadísticamente), no

correción
ANALISIS DE CONSISTENCIA

Serie histórica de caudales máximos

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019
T años

Qmáx m3/s

CONSISTENCIA DE LA MEDIA CONSISTENCIA DE LA D

Submuestra 2 Submuestra 1
8 n= 24
307.895 𝑥 ̅= 304.430
161.213 𝑆^2 (𝑥)= 23,556.741
Fc = 1.103
G.L.N = 7
G.L.D = 23
Ft = 2.76

Conclusión: Las desviaciones estándar

realizar correción
edias son iguales (estadísticamente), no se debe realizar proceso de
ión
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

SISTENCIA DE LA DESVIACIÓN ESTÁNDAR

Submuestra 2
8
307.895
25,989.545

as desviaciones estándar son iguales (estadísticamente), no se debe

ealizar correción
AÑO Q m Q(max 24h)=X P(x)
1990 245.8 1 80.89 0.030303
1991 149.0 2 83.29 0.060606
1992 142.9 3 117.25 0.090909
1993 212.9 4 142.95 0.121212
1994 164.1 5 149.01 0.151515
1995 224.5 6 164.10 0.181818
1996 477.8 7 175.93 0.212121
1997 199.3 8 199.28 0.242424
1998 758.6 9 212.94 0.272727
1999 223.1 10 214.79 0.303030
2000 318.9 11 223.06 0.333333
2001 349.8 12 224.49 0.363636
2002 305.6 13 241.32 0.393939
2003 83.3 14 245.82 0.424242
2004 214.8 15 250.22 0.454545
2005 299.5 16 274.27 0.484848
2006 295.9 17 295.94 0.515152
2007 388.0 18 299.49 0.545455
2008 474.1 19 305.56 0.575758
2009 490.1 20 318.86 0.606061
2010 391.3 21 334.82 0.636364
2011 117.3 22 349.77 0.666667
2012 371.4 23 371.43 0.696970
2013 408.5 24 387.96 0.727273
2014 334.8 25 391.26 0.757576
2015 539.7 26 408.52 0.787879
2016 175.9 27 474.06 0.818182
2017 566.0 28 477.82 0.848485
2018 80.9 29 490.08 0.878788
2019 250.2 30 539.72 0.909091
2020 241.3 31 565.99 0.939394
2021 274.3 32 758.60 0.969697

MEDIA 𝑥 ̅ = 305.30

DESVIACION ESTANDAR S = 153.30

𝚫<𝜟_𝑶 CONCLUSIÓN

0.09485<0.23600
 0.09485<0.23600

Ditrib

1.000000

0.800000

0.600000

f(Z) 0.400000

0.200000

0.000000
50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 3

CAUDALES PARA UN TIEMPO DE RETO

F(Z) Z
Q = s*z + x
Tr (años)
1-(1/T) DE LA TABLA (m3/s)

5 0.80 0.84163 434.32

10 0.90 1.28156 501.76
25 0.96 1.75070 573.68
50 0.98 2.05375 620.14
100 0.99 2.32637 661.93
200 0.995 2.57586 700.18
475 0.998 2.86197 744.04
1000 0.999 3.09024 779.03

PARA 5 AÑOS
0.84 0.7995
Z 0.8000
0.85 0.8023

Z= 0.84163

PARA 10 AÑOS
1.28 0.89972743
Z 0.9
1.29 0.90147467

Z= 1.2815599925

PARA 25 AÑOS
1.75 0.95994
Z 0.96
1.76 0.9608

Z= 1.7506976744

PARA 50 AÑOS
2.05 0.97982
Z 0.98
2.06 0.9803

Z= 2.05375

PARA 100 AÑOS

2.32 0.98982956
Z 0.99
2.33 0.99009692

Z= 2.3263748013

PARA 200 AÑOS

2.57 0.99491507
Z 0.995
2.58 0.99505998

Z= 2.5758605862

PARA 475 AÑOS

2.86 0.99788179
Z 0.99789474
2.87 0.99794764

Z= 2.861965476

PARA 1000 AÑOS

3.09 0.99899922
Z 0.999
3.1 0.9990324

Z= 3.090235833

HIDROESTA
 Z f(z) I f(z)-P(x) I
-1.463822 0.07162 0.04132
𝑷_((𝒙))=𝒎/
-1.448144 0.07379 0.01318
(𝑵+𝟏)
-1.226614 0.10998 0.01907
-1.059029 0.14479 0.02358
-1.019487 0.15399 0.00247
-0.921062 0.17851 0.00331
𝒁=(𝒙−𝒙 ̅)/𝒔
-0.843889 0.19937 0.01276
-0.691587 0.24460 0.00217
-0.602464 0.27343 0.00071 𝑥 ̅=(∑_(𝑖=1)^
-0.590383 0.27747 0.02556 𝑁▒𝑥_𝑖 )/𝑁
-0.536468 0.29582 0.03752
-0.527103 0.29906 0.06458
-0.417302 0.33823 0.05571 𝒔=√((∑_(𝒊=𝟏)^𝑵▒(𝒙_𝒊−𝒙 ̅ )^𝟐 )/(𝑵−𝟏))
-0.387952 0.34903 0.07522
-0.359286 0.35969 0.09485
-0.202362 0.41982 0.06503
-0.061017 0.47567 0.03948
-0.037903 0.48488 0.06057
0.001724 0.50069 0.07507
0.088481 0.53525 0.07081
0.192584 0.57636 0.06001
0.290112 0.61413 0.05253
0.431394 0.66691 0.03006
0.539221 0.70513 0.02214
0.560747 0.71251 0.04506
0.673359 0.74964 0.03824 INTERPOLACIÓN PARA EL VALOR CRÍTICO
1.100859 0.86452 0.04634
1.125386 0.86979 0.02130 30 →
1.205359 0.88597 0.00718 32 →
1.529155 0.93689 0.02780 35 →
1.700526 0.95548 0.01609
2.956968 0.99845 0.02875 ∆crítico = 0.236

Δ= 0.09485
Δ_𝑐= 0.23600

CONCLUSIÓN
podemos observar que el delta es menor que el delta crítico entonces concluimos
que el ajuste es bueno, la información es confiable.
 Ditribución Normal
P(X) F(z)

0.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 400.00 450.00 500.00 550.00 600.00 650.00 700.00 750.00 800.00

TIEMPO DE RETORNO
CIÓN PARA EL VALOR CRÍTICO DELTA:

0.240
∆crítico
0.230

0.236
0.00 800.00
AÑO Q m Q m3/s X
1990 245.823 1 80.89
1991 149.008 2 83.29
1992 142.946 3 117.25
1993 212.938 4 142.95
1994 164.096 5 149.01
1995 224.491 6 164.10
1996 477.820 7 175.93
1997 199.275 8 199.28
1998 758.604 9 212.94
1999 223.055 10 214.79
2000 318.861 11 223.06
2001 349.771 12 224.49
2002 305.561 13 241.32
2003 83.294 14 245.82
2004 214.790 15 250.22
2005 299.486 16 274.27
2006 295.943 17 295.94
2007 387.960 18 299.49
2008 474.060 19 305.56
2009 490.080 20 318.86
2010 391.260 21 334.82
2011 117.255 22 349.77
2012 371.430 23 371.43
2013 408.524 24 387.96
2014 334.820 25 391.26
2015 539.718 26 408.52
2016 175.927 27 474.06
2017 565.990 28 477.82
2018 80.890 29 490.08
2019 250.217 30 539.72
2020 241.324 31 565.99
2021 274.274 32 758.60

MEDIA 𝑥 ̅ = 5.59

DESVIACION ESTANDAR S = 0.53
 Distribución Log Normal 2 parám
P(x) F(z)

1.00000

0.80000

0.60000

0.40000

0.20000

0.00000
50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 400.00 450.00 500.00 550

CAUDALES PARA UN TIEMPO DE

 Z(UTILIZO
TR F(y)=1-1/T Ln(x) Qmax : X
TABLA)

5 0.80 0.8416 6.0425 420.948

10 0.90 1.2816 6.2773 532.348
25 0.96 1.7507 6.5277 683.802
50 0.98 2.0538 6.6894 803.843
100 0.99 2.3264 6.8349 929.736
200 0.995 2.5759 6.9680 1062.147
475 0.998 2.8620 7.1207 1237.363
1000 0.999 3.0902 7.2426 1397.671

PARA 5 AÑOS
0.84 0.7995
Z 0.8000
0.85 0.8023 𝐥𝐧⁡𝒙=𝒛∗𝝈_𝒚+𝝁_𝒚
𝑸_𝒊=𝒆^𝒍𝒏𝒙
Z= 0.84163

PARA 10 AÑOS
1.28 0.8997274320456
Z 0.9
1.29 0.9014746709503

Z= 1.2815599924756

PARA 25 AÑOS
1.75 0.95994
Z 0.96
1.76 0.9608

Z= 1.7506976744186

PARA 50 AÑOS
2.05 0.97982
 Z 0.98
2.06 0.9803

Z= 2.05375

PARA 100 AÑOS

2.32 0.9898295613313
Z 0.99
2.33 0.9900969244408

Z= 2.3263748012582

PARA 200 AÑOS

2.57 0.994915074251
Z 0.995
2.58 0.9950599842422

Z= 2.5758605861663

PARA 475 AÑOS

2.86 0.9978817949596
Z 0.9978947368421
2.87 0.9979476410051

Z= 2.8619654760462

PARA 1000 AÑOS

3.09 0.9989992175234
Z 0.999
3.1 0.9990323967868

Z= 3.0902358330276
HIDROESTA
 P(x) Y= Ln(x) F(z) |F(z) - P(x)|
0.03030 4.393095 0.01226 0.01805
0.06061 4.422376 0.01411 0.04649
0.09091 4.764349 0.06017 0.03074
0.12121 4.962466 0.11858 0.00263
0.15152 5.003998 0.13473 0.01678
0.18182 5.100454 0.17786 0.00396
0.21212 5.170070 0.21386 0.00173
0.24242 5.294687 0.28787 0.04545
0.27273 5.361001 0.33165 0.05892
0.30303 5.369661 0.33756 0.03453 𝑥 ̅=(∑_(𝑖=1)^𝑁▒𝑥_
0.33333 5.407420 0.36378 0.03044
0.36364 5.413835 0.36830 0.00466
0.39394 5.486139 0.42040 0.02646
0.42424 5.504612 0.43397 0.00973 𝒔=√((∑_(𝒊=𝟏)^𝑵▒(𝒙_𝒊−𝒙 
0.45455 5.522330 0.44707 0.00747
0.48485 5.614128 0.51553 0.03068
0.51515 5.690166 0.57198 0.05683
0.54545 5.702068 0.58071 0.03526
0.57576 5.722149 0.59536 0.01960
0.60606 5.764755 0.62596 0.01990
0.63636 5.813593 0.66008 0.02372
0.66667 5.857279 0.68954 0.02287
0.69697 5.917360 0.72812 0.03115
0.72727 5.960902 0.75450 0.02723
0.75758 5.969372 0.75947 0.00189
0.78788 6.012550 0.78392 0.00396
0.81818 6.161334 0.85640 0.03822
0.84848 6.169234 0.85972 0.01124
0.87879 6.194569 0.87003 0.00875
0.90909 6.291048 0.90445 0.00464
0.93939 6.338576 0.91870 0.02069
0.96970 6.631480 0.97413 0.00443

MAX. VALOR= 0.0589

DELTA CRITICO= 0.23600
 𝚫<𝜟_𝑶 CONCLUSIÓN
podemos observar que el delta es menor que el delta crítico e
que el ajuste es bueno, la información es confiable.
0.0589<0.23600

ón Log Normal 2 parámetros

P(x) F(z)

00 350.00 400.00 450.00 500.00 550.00 600.00 650.00 700.00 750.00 800.00

S PARA UN TIEMPO DE RETORNO

 Unid

m3/seg
m3/seg
m3/seg
m3/seg
m3/seg
m3/seg
m3/seg
m3/seg

𝐥𝐧⁡𝒙=𝒛∗𝝈_𝒚+𝝁_𝒚
𝑸_𝒊=𝒆^𝒍𝒏𝒙
 𝑷_((𝒙))=𝒎/(𝑵+𝟏)

𝒁=(𝒙−𝒙 ̅)/𝒔

𝑥 ̅=(∑_(𝑖=1)^𝑁▒𝑥_𝑖 )/𝑁

=√((∑_(𝒊=𝟏)^𝑵▒(𝒙_𝒊−𝒙 ̅ )^𝟐 )/(𝑵−𝟏))

INTERPOLACIÓN PARA EL VALOR CRÍTICO DELTA:

30 → 0.240
32 → ∆crítico
35 → 0.230

∆crítico = 0.236
elta es menor que el delta crítico entonces concluimos
formación es confiable.
AÑO Q m Q m3/s X P(x)
1990 245.823 1 80.89 0.030
1991 149.008 2 83.29 0.061
1992 142.946 3 117.25 0.091
1993 212.938 4 142.95 0.121
1994 164.096 5 149.01 0.152
1995 224.491 6 164.10 0.182
1996 477.820 7 175.93 0.212
1997 199.275 8 199.28 0.242
1998 758.604 9 212.94 0.273
1999 223.055 10 214.79 0.303
2000 318.861 11 223.06 0.333
2001 349.771 12 224.49 0.364
2002 305.561 13 241.32 0.394
2003 83.294 14 245.82 0.424
2004 214.790 15 250.22 0.455
2005 299.486 16 274.27 0.485
2006 295.943 17 295.94 0.515
2007 387.960 18 299.49 0.545
2008 474.060 19 305.56 0.576
2009 490.080 20 318.86 0.606
2010 391.260 21 334.82 0.636
2011 117.255 22 349.77 0.667
2012 371.430 23 371.43 0.697
2013 408.524 24 387.96 0.727
2014 334.820 25 391.26 0.758
2015 539.718 26 408.52 0.788
2016 175.927 27 474.06 0.818
2017 565.990 28 477.82 0.848
2018 80.890 29 490.08 0.879
2019 250.217 30 539.72 0.909
2020 241.324 31 565.99 0.939
2021 274.274 32 758.60 0.970

x0 = -73.99
MEDIA 𝑥 ̅ = 5.86
DESVIACION ESTANDAR S = 0.40
 𝚫<𝜟_𝑶
0.0508<0.23600

Distribución Log Normal 3 paráme

1.000

0.800

0.600

0.400

0.200

0.000
50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 400.00 450.00 500.00 550.

P(x) F(z)

CAUDALES PARA UN TIEMPO DE RETORNO

Z(UTILIZO
TR F(y)=1-1/T Qmax : X Unid
TABLA)
5 0.800 0.8416 419.038 m3/seg
10 0.900 1.2816 514.858 m3/seg
25 0.960 1.7507 637.640 m3/seg
50 0.980 2.0538 730.253 m3/seg
100 0.990 2.3264 823.821 m3/seg
200 0.995 2.5759 918.957 m3/seg
475 0.998 2.8620 1040.530 m3/seg
1000 0.999 3.0902 1148.117 m3/seg

PARA 5 AÑOS
0.84 0.7995
Z 0.8000
𝑸_𝒊=𝒆^(𝒛∗𝒔+𝒙)
0.85 0.8023 +𝒙_𝟎

Z= 0.84163

PARA 10 AÑOS
1.28 0.899727432045558
Z 0.9
1.29 0.901474670950252

Z= 1.28155999

PARA 25 AÑOS
1.75 0.95994
Z 0.96
1.76 0.9608

Z= 1.75069767

PARA 50 AÑOS
2.05 0.97982
Z 0.98
2.06 0.9803

Z= 2.05375

PARA 100 AÑOS

2.32 0.98982956133128
Z 0.99
2.33 0.990096924440836

Z= 2.3263748

PARA 200 AÑOS

2.57 0.994915074251009
Z 0.995
2.58 0.995059984242229

Z= 2.57586059

PARA 475 AÑOS

2.86 0.997881794959595
Z 0.997894736842105
2.87 0.99794764100506

Z= 2.86196548

PARA 1000 AÑOS

3.09 0.998999217523386
Z 0.999
3.1 0.999032396786782

Z= 3.09023583

HIDROESTA
ln(x - x0) Z F(z) lF(z)-P(x)l
5.043 -2.0591 0.01974 0.010559
5.058 -2.0203 0.02168 0.038931
𝑷_((𝒙))=𝒎/(𝑵+𝟏)
5.254 -1.5283 0.06322 0.027688
5.380 -1.2111 0.11294 0.008275
5.407 -1.1417 0.12679 0.024724
5.473 -0.9769 0.16431 0.017513
𝒙_𝟎=(𝒙_𝟏 𝒙_𝒏−𝒙_𝒎𝒆𝒅𝒊𝒂𝒏𝒂^𝟐)/(𝒙_𝟏+𝒙_𝒏−𝟐𝒙_𝒎𝒆𝒅𝒊𝒂𝒏𝒂 )
5.521 -0.8549 0.19631 0.015808
5.610 -0.6301 0.26432 0.021895
5.659 -0.5073 0.30597 0.033245
5.666 -0.4911 0.31168 0.008645
5.694 -0.4201 0.33721 0.003878 𝒁=(𝐥𝐧⁡(𝒙−𝒙_𝟎 )−𝒙 ̅)/𝒔
5.699 -0.4080 0.34165 0.021982
5.754 -0.2699 0.39363 0.000313
5.768 -0.2342 0.40741 0.016835
5.781 -0.1999 0.42079 0.033756
5.853 -0.0197 0.49213 0.007280
5.913 0.1322 0.55258 0.037425
5.923 0.1562 0.56205 0.016594
5.939 0.1968 0.57800 0.002240
5.973 0.2835 0.61159 0.005525
6.013 0.3837 0.64939 0.013025
6.049 0.4741 0.68228 0.015608
6.099 0.5995 0.72559 0.028618
6.135 0.6912 0.75529 0.028017
6.143 0.7091 0.76088 0.003307 INTERPOLACIÓN PARA EL VALOR CRÍTICO DEL
6.179 0.8008 0.78839 0.000509
6.306 1.1214 0.86893 0.050751 30 → 0.240
6.313 1.1386 0.87256 0.024074 32 → ∆crítico
6.335 1.1939 0.88374 0.004949 35 → 0.230
6.420 1.4061 0.92016 0.011068
6.461 1.5116 0.93469 0.004708 ∆crítico = 0.236
6.725 2.1738 0.98514 0.015443

MAX. VALOR= 0.0508

DELTA CRITICO= 0.23600
 CONCLUSIÓN
podemos observar que el delta es menor que el delta crítico entonces concluimos
que el ajuste es bueno, la información es confiable.
0.23600

ión Log Normal 3 parámetros

350.00 400.00 450.00 500.00 550.00 600.00 650.00 700.00 750.00 800.00

P(x) F(z)

TIEMPO DE RETORNO
𝒆^(𝒛∗𝒔+𝒙)
+𝒙_𝟎
𝟏+𝒙_𝒏−𝟐𝒙_𝒎𝒆𝒅𝒊𝒂𝒏𝒂 )

A EL VALOR CRÍTICO DELTA:

AÑO Q m Q m3/s X P(x)
1990 245.8230 1 80.89 0.030
1991 149.0077 2 83.29 0.061
1992 142.9458 3 117.25 0.091
1993 212.9379 4 142.95 0.121
1994 164.0964 5 149.01 0.152
1995 224.4909 6 164.10 0.182
1996 477.8200 7 175.93 0.212
1997 199.2752 8 199.28 0.242
1998 758.6044 9 212.94 0.273
1999 223.0553 10 214.79 0.303
2000 318.8610 11 223.06 0.333
2001 349.7712 12 224.49 0.364
2002 305.5610 13 241.32 0.394
2003 83.2939 14 245.82 0.424
2004 214.7900 15 250.22 0.455
2005 299.4860 16 274.27 0.485
2006 295.9426 17 295.94 0.515
2007 387.9600 18 299.49 0.545
2008 474.0600 19 305.56 0.576
2009 490.0800 20 318.86 0.606
2010 391.2600 21 334.82 0.636
2011 117.2547 22 349.77 0.667
2012 371.4300 23 371.43 0.697
2013 408.5236 24 387.96 0.727
2014 334.8200 25 391.26 0.758
2015 539.7184 26 408.52 0.788
2016 175.9272 27 474.06 0.818
2017 565.9899 28 477.82 0.848
2018 80.8904 29 490.08 0.879
2019 250.2175 30 539.72 0.909
2020 241.3236 31 565.99 0.939
2021 274.2742 32 758.60 0.970

𝒙 ̅= 305.30
y= 0.1279
g= 4.0704
b= 75.0041
 𝚫<𝜟_𝑶 CONCLUSIÓN

0.049965<0.23600

Distribución Gamma 2 parámetros

1.000

0.900

0.800

0.700

0.600

0.500

0.400

0.300

0.200

0.100

0.000
0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 80

P(x) G(y)

CAUDALES PARA UN TIEMPO DE R

TR F(y)=1/T v 𝜒2 Q (m3/s)

5 0.800 8 11.03 413.65

10 0.900 8 13.36 501.09
25 0.960 8 16.17 606.44
 50 0.980 8 18.17 681.35
100 0.990 8 20.09 753.43
200 0.995 8 21.95 823.36
475 0.998 8 24.22 908.29
1000 0.999 8 26.12 979.72

HIDROESTA
ln(x) G(y) lG(y)-P(x)l
4.393 0.02178 0.008523
𝒚=𝒍𝒏⁡𝒙 ̅ −(𝒍𝒏⁡𝒙 ) ̅
4.422 0.02394 0.036668
4.764 0.06815 0.022764
4.962 0.11804 0.003174
𝜸=(𝟖.𝟖𝟗𝟖𝟗𝟏𝟗+𝟗.𝟎𝟓𝟗𝟗𝟓𝒚+𝟎.𝟗𝟕𝟕𝟓𝟑𝟕𝟑𝒚^𝟐)/𝒚(𝟏𝟕.𝟕𝟗𝟕𝟐𝟖+𝟏𝟏.𝟗𝟔𝟖𝟒𝟕𝟕𝒚+𝒚^𝟐 )
5.004 0.13163 0.019884
5.100 0.16803 0.013788
5.170 0.19877 0.013355
5.295 0.26359 0.021169
𝑷_((𝒙))=𝒎/(𝑵+𝟏)
5.361 0.30321 0.030481
5.370 0.30864 0.005605
5.407 0.33296 0.000377
5.414 0.33719 0.026444
5.486 0.38688 0.007058
5.505 0.40011 0.024133
5.522 0.41298 0.041565
5.614 0.48209 0.002762
5.690 0.54143 0.026277
5.702 0.55080 0.005348
5.722 0.56663 0.009123
5.765 0.60019 0.005871
5.814 0.63832 0.001955
5.857 0.67182 0.005155
5.917 0.71644 0.019473
5.961 0.74738 0.020105 INTERPOLACIÓN PARA EL VALOR CRÍTICO DELTA:
5.969 0.75323 0.004341
6.013 0.78218 0.005703 30 → 0.240
6.161 0.86815 0.049965 32 → ∆crítico
6.169 0.87205 0.023564 35 → 0.230
6.195 0.88409 0.005300
6.291 0.92328 0.014187 ∆crítico = 0.236
6.339 0.93879 0.000605
6.631 0.98968 0.019985

MAX. VALOR= 0.049965

DELTA CRITICO= 0.23600
CONCLUSIÓN
podemos observar que el delta es menor que el delta crítico entonces concluimos
que el ajuste es bueno, la información es confiable.

a 2 parámetros

0 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.00

G(y)

RA UN TIEMPO DE RETORNO

𝒗=𝟐∗𝜸

𝝌^𝟐=𝟐𝒙/𝜷
𝑸_𝒊=(𝜷∗𝝌^𝟐)/𝟐
𝟗𝟕𝟐𝟖+𝟏𝟏.𝟗𝟔𝟖𝟒𝟕𝟕𝒚+𝒚^𝟐 )

R CRÍTICO DELTA:
AÑO Q m Q m3/s X P(x) ln(x)
1990 245.8230 1 80.89 0.030 4.393
1991 149.0077 2 83.29 0.061 4.422
1992 142.9458 3 117.25 0.091 4.764
1993 212.9379 4 142.95 0.121 4.962
1994 164.0964 5 149.01 0.152 5.004
1995 224.4909 6 164.10 0.182 5.100
1996 477.8200 7 175.93 0.212 5.170
1997 199.2752 8 199.28 0.242 5.295
1998 758.6044 9 212.94 0.273 5.361
1999 223.0553 10 214.79 0.303 5.370
2000 318.8610 11 223.06 0.333 5.407
2001 349.7712 12 224.49 0.364 5.414
2002 305.5610 13 241.32 0.394 5.486
2003 83.2939 14 245.82 0.424 5.505
2004 214.7900 15 250.22 0.455 5.522
2005 299.4860 16 274.27 0.485 5.614
2006 295.9426 17 295.94 0.515 5.690
2007 387.9600 18 299.49 0.545 5.702
2008 474.0600 19 305.56 0.576 5.722
2009 490.0800 20 318.86 0.606 5.765
2010 391.2600 21 334.82 0.636 5.814
2011 117.2547 22 349.77 0.667 5.857
2012 371.4300 23 371.43 0.697 5.917
2013 408.5236 24 387.96 0.727 5.961
2014 334.8200 25 391.26 0.758 5.969
2015 539.7184 26 408.52 0.788 6.013
2016 175.9272 27 474.06 0.818 6.161
2017 565.9899 28 477.82 0.848 6.169
2018 80.8904 29 490.08 0.879 6.195
2019 250.2175 30 539.72 0.909 6.291
2020 241.3236 31 565.99 0.939 6.339
2021 274.2742 32 758.60 0.970 6.631

𝒙 ̅= 305.30
S= 153.30 MAX. VALOR=
Cs = 0.92 DELTA CRITICO=
g= 4.73
b= 70.47
x0 = -28.20
 𝚫<𝜟_𝑶 CONCLUSIÓN

0.047109<0.23600

Distribución Gamma
1.000

0.800

0.600

0.400

0.200

0.000
50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 400.00 4

P(x)

CAUDALES PARA UN TIEMPO DE RE

TR F(y)=1/T v 𝜒2 Q (m3/s)
 5 0.800 9 12.24 403.14
10 0.900 9 14.68 517.37
25 0.960 9 17.61 620.42
50 0.980 9 19.68 693.38
100 0.990 9 21.67 763.39
200 0.995 9 23.59 831.16
475 0.998 9 25.92 913.29
1000 0.999 9 27.88 982.24

HIDROESTA
 FG(y) lF(G(y))-P(x)l
0.02961 0.000692
0.03196 0.028648
0.07723 0.013677
0.12606 0.004843
0.13921 0.012301
0.17432 0.007499
0.20389 0.008229
0.26627 0.023848
0.30448 0.031750
0.30972 0.006688
0.33323 0.000101
0.33733 0.026304
0.38553 0.008405
0.39840 0.025840
0.41094 0.043608
0.47851 0.006335
0.53692 0.021769
0.54618 0.000726
0.56184 0.013917
0.59512 0.010942
0.63308 0.003281
0.66657 0.000097
0.71136 0.014394 INTERPOLACIÓN PARA EL VALOR CRÍTICO DELTA:
0.74255 0.015276
0.74846 0.009112 30 → 0.240
0.77775 0.010126 32 → ∆crítico
0.86529 0.047109 35 → 0.230
0.86928 0.020797
0.88160 0.002816 ∆crítico = 0.236
0.92179 0.012701
0.93772 0.001674
0.98980 0.020102

MAX. VALOR= 0.047109

DELTA CRITICO= 0.23600
CONCLUSIÓN
podemos observar que el delta es menor que el delta crítico entonces concluimos
que el ajuste es bueno, la información es confiable.

Distribución Gamma 3 parámetros

.00 300.00 350.00 400.00 450.00 500.00 550.00 600.00 650.00 700.00 750.00 800.00

P(x) FG(y)

UN TIEMPO DE RETORNO

𝒗=𝟐∗𝜸
𝝌^𝟐=𝟐(𝒙−𝒙_𝟎 )/𝜷

𝑸_𝒊=(𝜷∗𝝌^𝟐)/𝟐+𝒙_𝟎
AÑO Q m Q m3/s X P(x) ln(x)
1990 245.823 1 80.89 0.030 4.393
1991 149.008 2 83.29 0.061 4.422
1992 142.946 3 117.25 0.091 4.764
1993 212.938 4 142.95 0.121 4.962
1994 164.096 5 149.01 0.152 5.004
1995 224.491 6 164.10 0.182 5.100
1996 477.820 7 175.93 0.212 5.170
1997 199.275 8 199.28 0.242 5.295
1998 758.604 9 212.94 0.273 5.361
1999 223.055 10 214.79 0.303 5.370
2000 318.861 11 223.06 0.333 5.407
2001 349.771 12 224.49 0.364 5.414
2002 305.561 13 241.32 0.394 5.486
2003 83.294 14 245.82 0.424 5.505
2004 214.790 15 250.22 0.455 5.522
2005 299.486 16 274.27 0.485 5.614
2006 295.943 17 295.94 0.515 5.690
2007 387.960 18 299.49 0.545 5.702
2008 474.060 19 305.56 0.576 5.722
2009 490.080 20 318.86 0.606 5.765
2010 391.260 21 334.82 0.636 5.814
2011 117.255 22 349.77 0.667 5.857
2012 371.430 23 371.43 0.697 5.917
2013 408.524 24 387.96 0.727 5.961
2014 334.820 25 391.26 0.758 5.969
2015 539.718 26 408.52 0.788 6.013
2016 175.927 27 474.06 0.818 6.161
2017 565.990 28 477.82 0.848 6.169
2018 80.890 29 490.08 0.879 6.195
2019 250.217 30 539.72 0.909 6.291
2020 241.324 31 565.99 0.939 6.339
2021 274.274 32 758.60 0.970 6.631

𝒙 ̅= 5.59
S= 0.53
Cs = -0.43
g= 21.45
b= -0.12
 x0 = 8.06

𝚫<𝜟_𝑶 CONCLUSIÓN
podemos observar que el delta e
que el ajuste no es bueno, la info
0.969694>0.23600

Distribución Log
1.000

0.800

0.600

0.400

0.200

0.000
50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 400.00

P(x)

CAUDALES PARA UN TIEMPO DE RETORN

TR F(y)=1/T v 𝜒2 Q (m3/s)
5 0.800 43 50.55 172.84
10 0.900 43 55.23 131.97 𝝌^𝟐=𝟐(𝒍𝒏𝒙−𝒙
25 0.960 43 60.53 97.27
50 0.980 43 64.12 79.09
100 0.990 43 67.46 65.23
200 0.995 43 70.62 54.38
475 0.998 43 74.35 43.86
𝑸_𝒊=𝒆^((𝜷∗𝝌^𝟐
1000 0.999 43 77.42 36.75

HIDROESTA
 Z FG(y) lF(G(y))-P(x)l
-17.361 0.00000 0.030303
-17.306 0.00000 0.060606
-16.665 0.00000 0.090909
𝒁=((𝐥𝐧⁡𝒙−𝒙_𝟎 )−𝒙 ̅)/𝒔
-16.294 0.00000 0.121212
-16.216 0.00000 0.151515
-16.035 0.00000 0.181818
-15.905 0.00000 0.212121
-15.671 0.00000 0.242424
𝑷_((𝒙))=𝒎/(𝑵+𝟏)
-15.547 0.00000 0.272727
-15.531 0.00000 0.303030
-15.460 0.00000 0.333333
-15.448 0.00000 0.363636
-15.313 0.00000 0.393939
-15.278 0.00000 0.424242
-15.245 0.00000 0.454545
-15.073 0.00000 0.484848
-14.930 0.00000 0.515152
-14.908 0.00000 0.545455
-14.870 0.00000 0.575758
-14.791 0.00000 0.606061
-14.699 0.00000 0.636364
-14.617 0.00000 0.666667
-14.505 0.00000 0.696970
-14.423 0.00000 0.727273
-14.407 0.00000 0.757576
-14.326 0.00000 0.787879
-14.047 0.00000 0.818182 INTERPOLACIÓN PARA EL VALO
-14.033 0.00000 0.848485
-13.985 0.00000 0.878788 30 →
-13.804 0.00000 0.909091 32 →
-13.715 0.00000 0.939394 35 →
-13.167 0.00000 0.969697
∆crítico = 0.236

MAX. VALOR= 0.969697

DELTA CRITICO= 0.23600
odemos observar que el delta es mayor que el delta crítico entonces concluimos
ue el ajuste no es bueno, la información no es confiable.

Distribución Log Pearson Tipo III

50.00 300.00 350.00 400.00 450.00 500.00 550.00 600.00 650.00 700.00 750.00 800.00

P(x) FG(y)

EMPO DE RETORNO
 𝒗=𝟐∗𝜸

𝝌^𝟐=𝟐(𝒍𝒏𝒙−𝒙_𝟎 )/𝜷

𝑸_𝒊=𝒆^((𝜷∗𝝌^𝟐)/𝟐+𝒙_𝟎 )
ERPOLACIÓN PARA EL VALOR CRÍTICO DELTA:

0.240
∆crítico
0.230

0.236
AÑO Q m Q m3/s X
1990 245.8230 1 80.89
1991 149.0077 2 83.29
1992 142.9458 3 117.25
1993 212.9379 4 142.95
1994 164.0964 5 149.01
1995 224.4909 6 164.10
1996 477.8200 7 175.93
1997 199.2752 8 199.28
1998 758.6044 9 212.94
1999 223.0553 10 214.79
2000 318.8610 11 223.06
2001 349.7712 12 224.49
2002 305.5610 13 241.32
2003 83.2939 14 245.82
2004 214.7900 15 250.22
2005 299.4860 16 274.27
2006 295.9426 17 295.94
2007 387.9600 18 299.49
2008 474.0600 19 305.56
2009 490.0800 20 318.86
2010 391.2600 21 334.82
2011 117.2547 22 349.77
2012 371.4300 23 371.43
2013 408.5236 24 387.96
2014 334.8200 25 391.26
2015 539.7184 26 408.52
2016 175.9272 27 474.06
2017 565.9899 28 477.82
2018 80.8904 29 490.08
2019 250.2175 30 539.72
2020 241.3236 31 565.99
2021 274.2742 32 758.60

MEDIA
DESVIACION ESTANDAR
 Dist
1.000

0.800

0.600

0.400

0.200

0.000
50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.0
 CAUDALES PARA UN TIEMPO DE RE

TR F(y)=1-1/T Y= -Ln(-Ln(F(y))) Q= α*Y+µ Unid

5 0.8 1.49994 415.5968344 m3/seg
10 0.9 2.25037 505.2944530 m3/seg
25 0.96 3.19853 618.6276319 m3/seg
50 0.98 3.90194 702.7046582 m3/seg
100 0.99 4.60015 786.1608730 m3/seg
200 0.995 5.29581 869.3125700 m3/seg
475 0.998 6.16226 972.8781215 m3/seg
1000 0.999 6.90726 1061.9262787 m3/seg

HIDROESTA
P(x) Y= (X-µ)/α FG(y) I FG(y)-P(x) I
0.030 -1.300278 0.02547 0.00484
0.061 -1.280169 0.02740 0.03321
0.091 -0.996047 0.06670 0.02421
0.121 -0.781110 0.11260 0.00861
0.152 -0.730395 0.12544 0.02607
0.182 -0.604160 0.16046 0.02136
0.212 -0.505182 0.19066 0.02147
0.242 -0.309848 0.25584 0.01341
0.273 -0.195543 0.29642 0.02369
0.303 -0.180048 0.30202 0.00101
0.333 -0.110899 0.32717 0.00617
0.364 -0.098889 0.33156 0.03208
0.394 0.041937 0.38330 0.01064
0.424 0.079580 0.39713 0.02712
0.455 0.116345 0.41059 0.04396
0.485 0.317608 0.48293 0.00192
0.515 0.498890 0.54487 0.02972
0.545 0.528535 0.55462 0.00917
0.576 0.579359 0.57106 0.00470
0.606 0.690629 0.60577 0.00029
0.636 0.824146 0.64493 0.00857
0.667 0.949230 0.67907 0.01240
0.697 1.130432 0.72405 0.02708
0.727 1.268725 0.75489 0.02761
0.758 1.296333 0.76069 0.00311
0.788 1.440764 0.78919 0.00131
0.818 1.989054 0.87212 0.05394
0.848 2.020511 0.87583 0.02734
0.879 2.123080 0.88722 0.00843
0.909 2.538365 0.92404 0.01495
0.939 2.758157 0.93856 0.00083
0.970 4.369607 0.98742 0.01773

𝒙 ̅ = 305.30 𝛼=√6/𝜋 𝑆=0,78𝑆

S = 153.30
α= 119.529
µ= 236.311
𝝁=𝒙 ̅−𝟎,𝟒𝟓𝑺
 𝝁=𝒙 ̅−𝟎,𝟒𝟓𝑺

INTERPOLACIÓN PARA EL VA

MAX. VALOR= 0.053941 30

DELTA CRITICO= 0.23600 32
35

∆crítico =

𝚫<𝜟_𝑶 CONCLUSIÓN
podemos observar que el delta es menor que el delta crítico entonces concluimos
que el ajuste es bueno, la información es confiable.
0.053941<0.23600

Distribución Gumbel

150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 400.00 450.00 500.00 550.00 600.00 650.00 700.00 750.00 800.00

P(x) FG(y)
A UN TIEMPO DE RETORNO
INTERPOLACIÓN PARA EL VALOR CRÍTICO DELTA:

→ 0.240
→ ∆crítico
→ 0.230

0.236

e el delta crítico entonces concluimos

AÑO Q m Q m3/s X P(x)
1990 245.8230 1 80.89 0.030
1991 149.0077 2 83.29 0.061
1992 142.9458 3 117.25 0.091
1993 212.9379 4 142.95 0.121
1994 164.0964 5 149.01 0.152
1995 224.4909 6 164.10 0.182
1996 477.8200 7 175.93 0.212
1997 199.2752 8 199.28 0.242
1998 758.6044 9 212.94 0.273
1999 223.0553 10 214.79 0.303
2000 318.8610 11 223.06 0.333
2001 349.7712 12 224.49 0.364
2002 305.5610 13 241.32 0.394
2003 83.2939 14 245.82 0.424
2004 214.7900 15 250.22 0.455
2005 299.4860 16 274.27 0.485
2006 295.9426 17 295.94 0.515
2007 387.9600 18 299.49 0.545
2008 474.0600 19 305.56 0.576
2009 490.0800 20 318.86 0.606
2010 391.2600 21 334.82 0.636
2011 117.2547 22 349.77 0.667
2012 371.4300 23 371.43 0.697
2013 408.5236 24 387.96 0.727
2014 334.8200 25 391.26 0.758
2015 539.7184 26 408.52 0.788
2016 175.9272 27 474.06 0.818
2017 565.9899 28 477.82 0.848
2018 80.8904 29 490.08 0.879
2019 250.2175 30 539.72 0.909
2020 241.3236 31 565.99 0.939
2021 274.2742 32 758.60 0.970

MEDIA 𝒙 ̅ =
DESVIACION ESTANDAR S =
α=
µ=
MAX. VALOR= 0.125713
DELTA CRITICO= 0.23600

𝚫<𝜟_𝑶
0.125713<0.23600
 CAUDALES PARA UN TIEMPO DE

TR F(y)=1-1/T
Y= -Ln(-Ln(F(y))) Q=e( α*Y+µ ) Unid
5 0.8 1.49994 394.3867541 m3/seg
10 0.9 2.25037 538.9350475 m3/seg
25 0.96 3.19853 799.6228769 m3/seg
50 0.98 3.90194 1071.5230718 m3/seg
100 0.99 4.60015 1432.7790930 m3/seg
200 0.995 5.29581 1913.7999703 m3/seg
475 0.998 6.16226 2744.5909120 m3/seg
1000 0.999 6.90726 3742.0518862 m3/seg

HIDROESTA
ln(x) Y= (lnX-µ)/α FG(y) lFG(y)-P(x)l
4.393 -2.307283 0.000043 0.030260
4.422 -2.236915 0.000086 0.060520
4.764 -1.415089 0.016296 0.074613
4.962 -0.938976 0.077509 0.043703
5.004 -0.839166 0.098822 0.052693
5.100 -0.607364 0.159520 0.022298
5.170 -0.440063 0.211653 0.000468
5.295 -0.140586 0.316337 0.073913
5.361 0.018779 0.374787 0.102060
5.370 0.039591 0.382440 0.079410
5.407 0.130332 0.415695 0.082362
5.414 0.145750 0.421315 0.057679
5.486 0.319509 0.483596 0.089657
5.505 0.363903 0.499095 0.074853
5.522 0.406485 0.513766 0.059221
5.614 0.627093 0.586172 0.101324
5.690 0.809825 0.640865 0.125713
5.702 0.838427 0.648956 0.103501
5.722 0.886688 0.662312 0.086554
5.765 0.989077 0.689410 0.083349
5.814 1.106444 0.718397 0.082033
5.857 1.211430 0.742471 0.075804
5.917 1.355817 0.772799 0.075829
5.961 1.460456 0.792843 0.065570
5.969 1.480811 0.796560 0.038984
6.013 1.584575 0.814619 0.026740
6.161 1.942131 0.866409 0.048227
6.169 1.961117 0.868749 0.020264
6.195 2.022001 0.875999 0.002789
6.291 2.253858 0.900330 0.008761
6.339 2.368078 0.910592 0.028802
6.631 3.071983 0.954728 0.014969

5.59 𝛼=√6/𝜋 𝑆_𝑙𝑛𝑥=0,78𝑆_𝑙𝑛𝑥

0.53
0.416
5.353
𝝁=𝒙 ̅_𝒍𝒏𝒙−𝟎,𝟒𝟓𝑺_𝒍𝒏𝒙
 INTERPOLACIÓN PARA EL VALOR CRÍTICO DELTA:

30 → 0.240
32 → ∆crítico
35 → 0.230

∆crítico = 0.236

CONCLUSIÓN
podemos observar que el delta es menor que el delta crítico entonces concluimos
que el ajuste es bueno, la información es confiable.
PARA UN TIEMPO DE RETORNO
 AJUSTE KOLMOGOROV - SMIRNOV

Nivel de significación 0.05

Número de datos 32
D Crítico 0.236

DISTRIBUCIÓN D TEÓRICO D CRÍTICO AJUSTE

Normal 0.094855 0.236 BUENO
Log Normal 2 Parámetros 0.058924 0.236 BUENO
Log Normal 3 Parámetros 0.050751 0.236 BUENO
Ganma 2 Parámetros 0.049965 0.236 BUENO
Ganma 3 Parámetros 0.047109 0.236 BUENO
Log Pearson Tipo III 0.969697 0.236 NO SE AJUSTA
Gumbel 0.053941 0.236 BUENO
Log Gumbel 0.125713 0.236 BUENO
INTERPOLACIÓN PARA EL VALOR CRÍTICO DELTA:

30 → 0.240
32 → ∆crítico
35 → 0.230

∆crítico = 0.236
 TR
Normal Log Normal 2 Parámetros Log Normal 3 Parámetros
5 434.32 m³/s 420.95 m³/s 419.04 m³/s
10 501.76 m³/s 532.35 m³/s 514.86 m³/s
25 573.68 m³/s 683.80 m³/s 637.64 m³/s
50 620.14 m³/s 803.84 m³/s 730.25 m³/s
100 661.93 m³/s 929.74 m³/s 823.82 m³/s
200 700.18 m³/s 1,062.15 m³/s 918.96 m³/s
475 744.04 m³/s 1,237.36 m³/s 1,040.53 m³/s
1000 779.03 m³/s 1,397.67 m³/s 1,148.12 m³/s

DISTRIBUCI
4,000.00
3,800.00
3,600.00
3,400.00
3,200.00
3,000.00
2,800.00
2,600.00
Caudales de diseño (m3/s)

2,400.00
2,200.00
2,000.00
1,800.00
1,600.00
1,400.00
1,200.00
1,000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00
0 100 200 300 400 500

T (años)
 DISTRIBUCION
Gamma 2 Parámetros Gamma 3 Parámetros Log Pearson Tipo III
413.65 m³/s 403.14 m³/s 172.84 m³/s
501.09 m³/s 517.37 m³/s 131.97 m³/s
606.44 m³/s 620.42 m³/s 97.27 m³/s
681.35 m³/s 693.38 m³/s 79.09 m³/s
753.43 m³/s 763.39 m³/s 65.23 m³/s
823.36 m³/s 831.16 m³/s 54.38 m³/s
908.29 m³/s 913.29 m³/s 43.86 m³/s
979.72 m³/s 982.24 m³/s 36.75 m³/s

DISTRIBUCIONES ESTADÍSTICAS

DISTRIBUC
Log Norma
Log Norma
Gamma 2 P
Gamma 3 P
Log Pearso
Gumbel
Log Gumbe

400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

T (años)
 Gumbel Log Gumbel
415.60 m³/s 394.39 m³/s
505.29 m³/s 538.94 m³/s
618.63 m³/s 799.62 m³/s
702.70 m³/s 1,071.52 m³/s
786.16 m³/s 1,432.78 m³/s
869.31 m³/s 1,913.80 m³/s
972.88 m³/s 2,744.59 m³/s
1,061.93 m³/s 3,742.05 m³/s

DISTRIBUCION Normal
Log Normal 2 Parámetros
Log Normal 3 Parámetros
Gamma 2 Parámetros
Gamma 3 Parámetros
Log Pearson Tipo III
Gumbel
Log Gumbel

1000
 M

ESTACIÓN MATAPALO PASO 1: CAUDAL MEDIO

AÑO Q(m3/s) Q^2
1990 245.8230 60428.94733 𝑄_𝑚=𝑆𝑢𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑄/𝑁
1991 149.0077 22203.30014
1992 142.9458 20433.51149
1993 212.9379 45342.56453 Qm=
1994 164.0964 26927.63969
1995 224.4909 50396.15061 PASO 2: DESVIACIÓN ESTANDAR
1996 477.8200 228311.9524
𝜎_𝑄=√((∑_(𝑖=1)^30▒𝑄^2 −𝑁𝑄_𝑚^2)
1997 199.2752 39710.61884
1998 758.6044 575480.6825
1999 223.0553 49753.65836
2000 318.8610 101672.3088
2001 349.7712 122339.866 𝜎Q=
2002 305.5610 93367.50875
2003 83.2939 6937.882029 𝜎Q=
2004 214.7900 46134.7441
2005 299.4860 89691.8642
2006 295.9426 87582.04649 PASO 3: CALCULO DE LOS COEFI
2007 387.9600 150512.9616
2008 474.0600 224732.8836
2009 490.0800 240178.4064
2010 391.2600 153084.3876 σN =
2011 117.2547 13748.67224 YN =
2012 371.4300 137960.2449
2013 408.5236 166891.5131
2014 334.8200 112104.4324 PASO 4: ECUACIÓN DEL CAUDAL
2015 539.7184 291295.9415
𝑄_𝑚á𝑥=𝑄_𝑚−𝜎_𝑄/𝜎_𝑁 (𝑌_𝑁−𝑙𝑛
2016 175.9272 30950.3819
2017 565.9899 320344.5326
𝑄_𝑚á𝑥=3.053−1.5533/1.1193(
2018 80.8904 6543.254635
2019 250.2175 62608.78959
2020 241.3236 58237.08575
2021 274.2742 75226.34298 PASO 5: INTERVALO DE CONFIAN
Suma= 9769.49189 3711135.077 𝜙=1−1/𝑇

N= 32 𝑆𝑖 0.2<𝜙<0.80
𝑆𝑖 𝜙>0.90

T (años)
5
10
25
50
100
200
475
1000
 METODO GUMBEL TIPO I

CAUDAL MEDIO

𝑄_𝑚=𝑆𝑢𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑄/𝑁

305.297 m3/s

DESVIACIÓN ESTANDAR DE LOS CAUDALES Q 𝜎

∑_(𝑖=1)^30▒𝑄^2 −𝑁𝑄_𝑚^2)/(𝑁−1))

153.302 Con formula

153.302 Con excel

CALCULO DE LOS COEFICIENTES 𝜎N, Y N: De la Tabla 6.13, para N=32 AÑOS

Tabla 6.13 Valores de YN Y 𝜎N EN FUNCIÓN DE N

1.1193
0.538

ECUACIÓN DEL CAUDAL MÁXIMO:

𝑚á𝑥=𝑄_𝑚−𝜎_𝑄/𝜎_𝑁 (𝑌_𝑁−𝑙𝑛𝑇)

_𝑚á𝑥=3.053−1.5533/1.1193(0.538−𝑙𝑛𝑇)

NTERVALO DE CONFIANZA
𝜙=1−1/𝑇

∆𝑄=±√(𝑁∗𝛼∗𝜎_𝑚 )∗𝜎_𝑄/(𝜎_𝑁∗√𝑁)

∆𝑄=± 〖 1.14𝜎 〗 _𝑄/𝜎_𝑁

 ∆𝑄=± 〖 1.14𝜎 〗 _𝑄/𝜎_𝑁

𝑄_𝑑=𝑄_𝑚á𝑥±∆𝑄

P (%) Qmax (m3/s) Φ √(N*α*σm) Qd (m3/s)

80.00 452.0428736 0.800 2.2408 506.30
90.00 546.97768 0.900 - 703.11
96.00 672.4746679 0.960 - 828.61
98.00 767.4094743 0.980 - 923.55
99.00 862.3442808 0.990 - 1018.48
99.50 957.2790872 0.995 - 1113.42
99.79 1075.750844 0.998 - 1231.89
99.90 1177.710882 0.999 - 1333.85
 METODO LOG P

ESTACIÓN MATAPALO
Q Máx
AÑO DesCendente Log(Q) Log(Q)2 Log(Q)3
(m3/s)
1990 245.8230 758.60 2.880 8.294 23.888
1991 149.0077 565.99 2.753 7.578 20.861
1992 142.9458 539.72 2.732 7.465 20.395
1993 212.9379 490.08 2.690 7.238 19.471
1994 164.0964 477.82 2.679 7.178 19.233
1995 224.4909 474.06 2.676 7.160 19.159
1996 477.8200 408.52 2.611 6.818 17.804
1997 199.2752 391.26 2.592 6.721 17.424
1998 758.6044 387.96 2.589 6.702 17.350
1999 223.0553 371.43 2.570 6.604 16.972
2000 318.8610 349.77 2.544 6.471 16.460
2001 349.7712 334.82 2.525 6.375 16.095
2002 305.5610 318.86 2.504 6.268 15.693
2003 83.2939 305.56 2.485 6.176 15.347
2004 214.7900 299.49 2.476 6.132 15.186
2005 299.4860 295.94 2.471 6.107 15.091
2006 295.9426 274.27 2.438 5.945 14.494
2007 387.9600 250.22 2.398 5.752 13.795
2008 474.0600 245.82 2.391 5.715 13.663
2009 490.0800 241.32 2.383 5.677 13.525
2010 391.2600 224.49 2.351 5.528 12.998
2011 117.2547 223.06 2.348 5.515 12.952
2012 371.4300 214.79 2.332 5.438 12.682
2013 408.5236 212.94 2.328 5.421 12.621
2014 334.8200 199.28 2.299 5.287 12.158
2015 539.7184 175.93 2.245 5.042 11.320
2016 175.9272 164.10 2.215 4.907 10.869
2017 565.9899 149.01 2.173 4.723 10.264
2018 80.8904 142.95 2.155 4.645 10.010
2019 250.2175 117.25 2.069 4.281 8.859
2020 241.3236 83.29 1.921 3.689 7.085
2021 274.2742 80.89 1.908 3.640 6.945
 Σ= 9769.49189036371 77.733 190.491 470.668

N= 32

PASO 1: PROMEDIO
X= 2.429
𝜎_𝑄=√(∑_(𝑖=1)^𝑁▒(𝑆𝑢𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑄^2−𝑁𝑄_𝑚^2)/(𝑁−1)
PASO 2: DESV. ESTANDAR

𝜎Q= 0.232 Con formula

𝜎Q= 0.232 Con excel

PASO 3: CALCULO DEL COEFICIENTE DE SESGO (Csy)

𝐶𝑠𝑦=((𝑁^2∗∑▒ 〖𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑄〗 ^3 −3∗𝑁∗∑▒ 〖𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑄∗∑▒〖〖𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑄〗 ^2+2∗ 〖 (∑▒𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑄) 〗 ^3) 〗〗 )/(𝑁(𝑁−1)(𝑁−2)

Csy= -0.432

PASO 4: CALCULO DE LA VARIABLE INTERMEDIA W

T= 50 años

P= 0.020 0 < P < 0.5

𝑊=ln(1/𝑃^2 )
W= 2.797

PASO 5: CALCULO DE LA VARIABLEESTANDARIZADA Z

Z= 2.054

PASO 6: CALCULO DEL FACTOR DE FRECUENCIA K

C= -0.072

K= 1.817

PASO 7: CALCULO DEL CAUDAL MAXIMO(Qmáx)

log(Qmáx)= 2.850 〖 log⁡(𝑄 〗 _𝑚á𝑥)="X+(K∗" 𝜎_𝑄)

Qmáx= 708.458 m3/s 𝑄_𝑚á𝑥=10^(log⁡(𝑄_𝑚á𝑥))

 𝑄_𝑚á𝑥=10^(log⁡(𝑄_𝑚á𝑥))

T (años) P (%) K Log Q Q (m3/s)

5 80.0000 0.854 2.627 423.849
10 90.0000 1.226 2.713 516.751
25 96.0000 1.594 2.799 628.946
50 98.0000 1.817 2.850 708.458
100 99.0000 2.008 2.895 784.497
200 99.5000 2.175 2.933 857.652
475 99.7895 2.358 2.976 945.467
1000 99.9000 2.497 3.008 1018.304
ODO LOG PEARSON III

(LogQ-logQp)2

0.203
0.105
0.092
0.068
0.063
0.061
0.033
0.027
0.025
0.020
0.013
0.009
0.006
0.003
0.002
0.002
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.006
0.007
0.009
0.010
0.017
0.034
0.046
0.066
0.075
0.130
0.259
0.272
 1.665

𝑄^2−𝑁𝑄_𝑚^2)/(𝑁−1))+

) 〗〗 )/(𝑁(𝑁−1)(𝑁−2)∗𝜎_𝑄^3 )

OK

)="X+(K∗" 𝜎_𝑄)

og⁡(𝑄_𝑚á𝑥))
og⁡(𝑄_𝑚á𝑥))

T (años) P W Z C K
5 0.200 1.794 0.841 -0.072 0.854
10 0.100 2.146 1.281 -0.072 1.226
25 0.040 2.537 1.751 -0.072 1.594
50 0.020 2.797 2.054 -0.072 1.817
100 0.010 3.035 2.326 -0.072 2.008
200 0.005 3.255 2.576 -0.072 2.175
475 0.002 3.511 2.862 -0.072 2.358
1000 0.001 3.717 3.090 -0.072 2.497
 M

ESTACIÓN MATAPALO
AÑO Q Máx (m3/s) (Q/Qm)-1 ((Q/Qm)-1)^2
1990 245.823 -0.194806025914 0.038
1991 149.008 -0.511924771322 0.262
1992 142.946 -0.531780491508 0.283
1993 212.938 -0.302521152188 0.092
1994 164.096 -0.462501637665 0.214
1995 224.491 -0.264679482467 0.070
1996 477.820 0.565100843687 0.319
1997 199.275 -0.347273373495 0.121
1998 758.604 1.484811089374 2.205
1999 223.055 -0.269381758004 0.073
2000 318.861 0.044430015552 0.002
2001 349.771 0.145676491895 0.021
2002 305.561 0.000865886732 0.000
2003 83.294 -0.727170418388 0.529
2004 214.790 -0.296454710528 0.088
2005 299.486 -0.0190327084 0.000
2006 295.943 -0.030638992949 0.001
2007 387.960 0.270764144064 0.073
2008 474.060 0.552784952405 0.306
2009 490.080 0.605258510473 0.366
2010 391.260 0.281573303966 0.079
2011 117.255 -0.615931772576 0.379
2012 371.430 0.216620079466 0.047
2013 408.524 0.338120202941 0.114
2014 334.820 0.096703914619 0.009
2015 539.718 0.767849209026 0.590
2016 175.927 -0.42374990805 0.180
2017 565.990 0.85390151637 0.729
2018 80.890 -0.735043296164 0.540
2019 250.217 -0.180411878457 0.033
2020 241.324 -0.209543784539 0.044
2021 274.274 -0.101613997958 0.010
Σ 9769.49189036371 7.816

PASO 1: PROMEDIO
 N= 32
𝑄_𝑚=(∑▒𝑄_𝑖 )/𝑁

Qm= 305.297 m3/s

PASO 2: COEFICIENTE DE VARIACIÓN Cv

𝐶_𝑣=√(( 〖 (∑▒ 〖 (𝑄_𝑖/𝑄_𝑚 −1) 〗〗 ^2))/𝑁)

Cv= 1.382

PASO 3: COEFICIENTE DE ASIMETRIA Cs

𝐶_𝑠=( 〖 (∑▒ 〖 (𝑄_𝑖/𝑄_𝑚 −1) 〗〗 ^3))/((𝑁∗𝐶_𝑣^3))

Cs= 0.971

Se escoge el mayor Cs=

PASO 4: PARA UN PERIODO DE RETORNO DE 50 AÑOS

T= 50

PASO 5: Con P (%) y Cs, se obtiene el valor K de la Tabla 6.17 (Hidrología, Máximo Villó

Cs= 4.145

K= 3.250
PASO 6: Con P (%) y Cv, se obtiene el valor de Er de la figura 6.3

Er= 2.050

PASO 7: Cálculo del caudal máximo Qmax :

𝑄_𝑚á𝑥=𝑄_𝑚 ( 〖𝐾∗𝐶〗 _𝑣+1)

Qmáx = 1676.308 m3/s

PASO 8: Cáculo del intervalo de confianza: Para N = 50 años (N=30 años) se puede tom

A= 0.85
 ∆𝑄=(±(𝐴∗𝐸𝑟∗𝑄_𝑚á𝑥))/√𝑁

ΔQ = +- 516.35886983 m3/s

PASO 9: Cálculo del caudal de diseño Qd :

𝑄_𝑑= 〖 (𝑄 〗 _𝑚á𝑥+∆𝑄)

Qd= 2192.667 m3/s

T (años) P (%) K
5 20 0.211
10 10 0.961
25 4 2.246
50 2 3.250
100 1 4.339
200 0.5 5.497
475 0.211 5.349
1000 0.1 8.165

Cv= 1.382
 METODO LEBEDIEV

O
((Q/Qm)-1)^3
-0.007
-0.134
-0.150
-0.028
-0.099
-0.019
0.180
-0.042
3.274
-0.020
0.000
0.003
0.000
-0.385
-0.026
0.000
0.000
0.020
0.169
0.222
0.022
-0.234
0.010
0.039
0.001
0.453
-0.076
0.623
-0.397
-0.006
-0.009
-0.001
3.383
 Considerando que la avenida es producida por una tormenta:

𝐶_𝑠=3∗𝐶_𝑣

Cs= 4.145

4.145

P= 0.02
P= 2%

abla 6.17 (Hidrología, Máximo Villón Béjar)

Cs K
3.9500 3.20
4.145 3.250000
4.000 3.200
a figura 6.3

50 años (N=30 años) se puede tomar A= 0.85

 INTERPOLACIÓN X

T=5 AÑOS

Cs= 4.145 Cs
3.9500
K= 8.315 4.145
4.000
Er Qmax (m3/s) Qd (m3/s)
1.180 394.3069054 464.22
1.42 710.69417 862.33
1.65 1252.771017 1563.37
2.050 1676.308102 2192.67
1.88 2135.70241 2739.02
1.98 2624.204346 3404.94
2.03 2561.770593 3343.18
2.08 3749.699309 4921.63
 INTERPOLACIÓN Y

K
8.120
8.315
8.170
 METODO NASH

ESTACIÓN MATAPALO
m Q T T/(T-1) X Q*X
1 245.8230 33.00 1.031 -1.874 -460.688227
2 149.0077 16.50 1.065 -1.566 -233.3750302
3 142.9458 11.00 1.100 -1.383 -197.7050096
4 212.9379 8.25 1.138 -1.251 -266.3669903
5 164.0964 6.60 1.179 -1.147 -188.1480583
6 224.4909 5.50 1.222 -1.060 -237.9000984
7 477.8200 4.71 1.269 -0.985 -470.5998324
8 199.2752 4.13 1.320 -0.919 -183.0834394
9 758.6044 3.67 1.375 -0.859 -651.7696735
10 223.0553 3.30 1.435 -0.805 -179.4908965
11 318.8610 3.00 1.500 -0.754 -240.504766
12 349.7712 2.75 1.571 -0.707 -247.3202325
13 305.5610 2.54 1.650 -0.663 -202.4563898
14 83.2939 2.36 1.737 -0.620 -51.66079462
15 214.7900 2.20 1.833 -0.580 -124.5021108
16 299.4860 2.06 1.941 -0.541 -161.8750214
17 295.9426 1.94 2.063 -0.503 -148.7188151
18 387.9600 1.83 2.200 -0.465 -180.5711236
19 474.0600 1.74 2.357 -0.429 -203.3749478
20 490.0800 1.65 2.538 -0.393 -192.6042304
21 391.2600 1.57 2.750 -0.357 -139.760606
22 117.2547 1.50 3.000 -0.321 -37.68229826
23 371.4300 1.43 3.300 -0.285 -105.946531
24 408.5236 1.38 3.667 -0.249 -101.5229858
25 334.8200 1.32 4.125 -0.211 -70.58862893
26 539.7184 1.27 4.714 -0.172 -92.6786253
27 175.9272 1.22 5.500 -0.131 -22.96826008
28 565.9899 1.18 6.600 -0.086 -48.91723608
29 80.8904 1.14 8.250 -0.038 -3.064884433
30 250.2175 1.10 11.000 0.018 4.407461593
31 241.3236 1.06 16.500 0.085 20.6242984
32 274.2742 1.03 33.000 0.181 49.75849364
Σ 9769.49 -19.068 -5371.05549

PASO 1: PROMEDIO

N= 32 𝑋_𝑚=(∑▒𝑋_𝑖 )/𝑁
 𝑄_𝑚=(∑▒𝑄_𝑖 )/𝑁

Qm= 305.297 m3/s Xm= -0.596

PASO 2: CALCULO DE LOS PARAMETROS a, b

𝑏=(∑▒ 〖𝑋 _𝑖 𝑄_𝑖−𝑁𝑋_𝑚 𝑄_𝑚 〗 )/(∑_(𝑖=1)^𝑁▒ 〖𝑋 _𝑖^2−𝑁𝑋_𝑚^2 〗 )

b= 59.541

〖𝑎 =𝑄 〗 _𝑚−𝑏∗𝑋_𝑚 a= 340.775

PASO 3: CALCULO DEL CAUDAL MÁXIMO Qmáx

𝑄_𝑚á𝑥=𝑎+𝑏∗𝑙𝑜𝑔 〖 (𝑙𝑜𝑔 〗 _(𝑇/(𝑇−1))) Qmáx= 218.311 m3/s

T= 50 Años

PASO 4: CALCULO DE LA DESVIACIÓN ESTANDAR Y LA COVARIANZA

𝑆_𝑥𝑥=𝑁∑▒𝑋_𝑖^2 −(∑▒ 〖𝑋 _𝑖) 〗 ^2
Sxx= 241.964

𝑆_𝑞𝑞=𝑁∑▒𝑄_𝑖^2 −(∑▒ 〖𝑄 _𝑖) 〗 ^2

Sqq= ###

𝑆_𝑞𝑥=𝑁∑▒ 〖𝑄 _𝑖∗𝑋_𝑖 〗−∑▒〖𝑄 _𝑖∗∑▒𝑋_𝑖 〗

Sqx= 14406.757

𝑋_𝑖=𝑙𝑜𝑔 〖 (𝑙𝑜𝑔 〗 _(𝑇/(𝑇−1))) X= -2.057

∆𝑄=±2∗√(𝑆_𝑞𝑞/(𝑁^2 (𝑁−1))+ 〖 (𝑋−𝑋_𝑚) 〗 ^2 1/(𝑁−2)∗1/𝑆_𝑥𝑥 (𝑆_𝑞𝑞− 〖𝑆 _𝑞𝑥 〗 ^2/𝑆_𝑥𝑥 ))

ΔQ =

PASO 5: CALCULO DEL CAUDAL DE DISEÑO

𝑄_𝑑=𝑄_𝑚á𝑥+∆𝑄

Qd= 389.624 m3/s

T (años) P (%) X Qmax (m3/s) Qd (m3/s)

5 80.000 -1.013631 280.422 351.818
10 90.000 -1.339538 261.017 359.917
25 96.000 -1.751321 236.499 375.992
50 98.000 -2.056806 218.311 389.624
100 99.000 -2.360035 200.256 403.848
200 99.500 -2.662158 182.267 418.423
475 99.789 -3.038452 159.862 436.926
1000 99.900 -3.361998 140.598 453.037
H

Q^2 X^2
60428.94733 3.512
22203.30014 2.452964396
20433.51149 1.912900328
45342.56453 1.564785191
26927.63969 1.314622902
50396.15061 1.123031346
228311.9524 0.970007045
39710.61884 0.844095277
575480.6825 0.738171967
49753.65836 0.64752991
101672.3088 0.568911468
122339.866 0.499978457
93367.50875 0.439002714
6937.882029 0.384676143
46134.7441 0.335989196
89691.8642 0.292150495
87582.04649 0.25253219
150512.9616 0.216632045
224732.8836 0.184046806
240178.4064 0.154453475
153084.3876 0.127596467
13748.67224 0.103279471
137960.2449 0.081361609
166891.5131 0.061758183
112104.4324 0.044447436
291295.9415 0.029486602
30950.3819 0.017044732
320344.5326 0.007469758
6543.254635 0.001435603
62608.7896 0.000310271
58237.0857 0.007303966
75226.3430 0.032912775
3711135.077 18.92300703
R Y LA COVARIANZA

𝑞𝑥 〗 ^2/𝑆_𝑥𝑥 ))
171.314
 DETERMIN

Registro Historico
m T(Años) Q(m3/s) Log- Pearson
1 33.00 245.8230 T (años)
2 16.50 149.0077 5
3 11.00 142.9458 10
4 8.25 212.9379 25
5 6.60 164.0964 50
6 5.50 224.4909 100
7 4.71 477.8200 200
8 4.13 199.2752 475
9 3.67 758.6044 1000
10 3.30 223.0553
11 3.00 318.8610
12 2.75 349.7712 Lebediev

13 2.54 305.5610 T (años)

14 2.36 83.2939 5
15 2.20 214.7900 10
16 2.06 299.4860 25
17 1.94 295.9426 50
18 1.83 387.9600 100
19 1.74 474.0600 200
20 1.65 490.0800 475
21 1.57 391.2600 1000
22 1.50 117.2547
23 1.43 371.4300
24 1.38 408.5236 Nash
25 1.32 334.8200 T (años)
26 1.27 539.7184 5
27 1.22 175.9272 10
28 1.18 565.9899 25
29 1.14 80.8904 50
30 1.10 250.2175 100
31 1.06 241.3236 200
32 1.03 274.2742 475
1000
N= 32 Años M. Gumbel I
T (años)
5
10
25
50
100
200
475
1000
DETERMINACIÓN DEL CAUDAL DE DISEÑO

Qd (m3/s)
423.849
516.751
628.946
708.458
784.497
857.652
945.467
1018.304

Qd (m3/s)
464.220
862.335
1563.370
2192.667
2739.015
3404.945
3343.183
4921.635
5000

Qd(m3/s) 4500

351.818
359.917
4000
375.992
389.624
403.848 3500
418.423
436.926
453.037 3000
l (m3/s)

2500
 3500

3000

Caudal (m3/s)
2500
Qd(m3/s)
506.296
703.114 2000
828.611
923.546
1018.481
1500

1113.416
1231.887
1000
1333.848

500

0
1
GRAFICO T VS Q
10 100

Tiempo de Retorno (años)

Tiempo de Retorno (años)
Registro Historico
Lebediev
 Registro Historico
Lebediev
Nash
Log- Pearson
M. Gumbel I

100 1000
Registro Historico
Lebediev
Registro Historico
Lebediev
Nash
Log- Pearson
M. Gumbel I