Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
54.4%
4.8% 329935 -38,144 38144 13.1%
10.3% 302986 8,949 8949 2.9% 323578
22.8% 286177 -47,458 47458 19.9% 304477
13.4% 282292 27,307 27307 8.8% 278268
19.6% 276387 81,939 81939 22.9% 286843
2.5% 302074 10,268 10268 3.3% 290043
3.5% 306184 9,516 9516 3.0% 303785
2.6% 306937 25,785 25785 7.7% 307770
8.6% 325738 -21,955 21955 7.2% 311235
1.4% 324575 -4,011 4011 1.3% 322079
32.4% 317022 154,000 154000 32.7% 323906
9.9% 348758 47,655 47655 12.0% 342689
6.0% 364901 31,908 31908 8.0% 356701
1.3% 377718 23,684 23684 5.9% 370219
30.5% 397242 -78,139 78139 24.5% 381665
12.0% 396949 33,246 33246 7.7% 384218
3.0% 388784 10,123 10123 2.5% 402490
19.3% 389283 -64,645 64645 19.9% 390471
18.9% 374849 79,311 79311 17.5% 378509
8.3% 385401 -14,359 14359 3.9% 388067
8.9% 395788 29,347 29347 6.9% 383007
68.5% 394776 -161,166 161166 69.0% 400680
1.0% 361717 5,452 5452 1.5% 367915
23.1% 370223 84,059 84059 18.5% 362626
3.6% 370248 13,602 13602 3.5% 384233
391% 324%
26 C. de datos 25 C. de datos
15.04% Mape 12.96% Mape
500000 Ch
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
Error % abs Pms N7 Error % abs Pms N8 Error % abs
3.7%
27.5% 321914 34.9%
10.1% 295083 4.7% 311515 0.6%
19.9% 282744 21.1% 296898 17.1%
7.1% 297055 4.9% 292191 6.5%
3.8% 293229 7.1% 298966 5.3%
7.5% 305487 8.2% 296038 11.0%
2.5% 311335 2.5% 308892 1.7%
0.5% 310170 3.2% 310391 3.2%
31.2% 321862 31.7% 311469 33.9%
13.6% 344923 13.0% 340507 14.1%
10.1% 350364 11.7% 351359 11.5%
7.8% 362430 9.7% 356169 11.3%
19.6% 374673 17.4% 367302 15.1%
10.7% 372728 13.4% 367727 14.5%
0.9% 390787 2.0% 379911 4.8%
20.3% 401978 23.8% 391802 20.7%
16.7% 381066 16.1% 392311 13.6%
4.6% 389316 4.9% 390203 5.2%
9.9% 385635 9.3% 387032 9.0%
71.5% 389026 66.5% 390573 67.2%
0.2% 376812 2.6% 369599 0.7%
20.2% 367809 19.0% 375607 17.3%
0.1% 375719 2.1% 378618 1.4%
320% 330% 285%
24 C. de datos 23 C. de datos 22
13.33% Mape 14.34% Mape 12.97%
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
Pms N9 Error % abs Pms N10 Error abs % Pms N11 Error abs %
311302 13.1%
303723 2.8% 316004 1%
294430 6.7% 304585 4% 315671 0.0%
300825 9.6% 296557 11% 305595 8.2%
300114 1.2% 304015 0% 299845 1.3%
308324 3.8% 300481 6% 303994 5.2%
311521 33.9% 309548 34% 302306 35.8%
329197 17.0% 327471 17% 324227 18.2%
346719 12.6% 335919 15% 333739 15.9%
356409 11.2% 351728 12% 341454 14.9%
361195 13.2% 360908 13% 356244 11.6%
361946 15.9% 356986 17% 357108 17.0%
374668 6.1% 368771 8% 363641 8.8%
382022 17.7% 377092 16% 371511 14.4%
384339 15.4% 376283 17% 372323 18.0%
399183 7.6% 391321 5% 383363 3.3%
388074 8.7% 396369 7% 389478 8.4%
391265 67.5% 391780 68% 398984 70.8%
373132 1.6% 375500 2% 377401 2.8%
369329 18.7% 372536 18% 374743 17.5%
384349 0.1% 377824 2% 379967 1.0%
284% 274% 273%
C. de datos 21 C. de datos 20 C. de datos 19
Mape 13.54% Mape 13.70% Mape 14.38%
Pms N12 Error abs % Pms N13 Error abs %
315674 5.1%
307856 1.3% 316985 4.3%
300173 6.4% 307543 4.1%
305375 35.2% 301742 35.9%
316366 20.2% 318117 19.8%
330243 16.8% 322523 18.7%
338994 15.5% 335363 16.5%
346450 8.6% 343795 7.7%
353149 17.9% 344346 20.0%
363198 9.0% 359075 10.0%
366580 12.9% 365945 12.7%
367605 19.1% 363354 20.0%
379143 2.2% 374263 0.9%
382336 10.1% 378520 11.0%
392449 68.0% 385629 65.1%
385203 4.9% 380231 3.6%
376548 17.1% 383816 15.5%
381371 0.6% 382528 0.3%
271% 266%
C. de datos 18 C. de datos 17
Mape 15.05% Mape 15.65%
0.4 0.6 0.5
Vaca P/Engorda
Datos mes Precio PMP 0,9*0,1 Error % abs PMP 08*0,2
1 9-Jan 426537
2 16-Jan 395976
3 23-Jan 258146 414312 60.5%
4 30-Jan 339126 340844 0.5% 333173
5 6-Feb 229890 290538 26.4% 326202
6 13-Feb 291791 295432 1.2% 268312
7 20-Feb 311934 254650 18.4% 282688
8 27-Feb 238720 299848 25.6% 289482
9 6-Mar 309599 282649 8.7% 271298
10 13-Mar 358326 267072 25.5% 288802
11 20-Mar 312342 329090 5.4% 319787
12 27-Mar 315700 339932 7.7% 325589
13 3-Apr 332722 313685 5.7% 323218
14 11-Apr 303783 322509 6.2% 323539
15 17-Apr 320563 321146 0.2% 314848
16 16-Aug 471022 310495 34.1% 317961
17 22-Aug 396413 380747 4.0% 392437
18 29-Aug 396808 441178 11.2% 403626
19 5-Sep 401402 396571 1.2% 411532
20 12-Sep 319102 398646 24.9% 399026
21 26-Sep 430195 368482 14.3% 359333
22 3-Oct 398907 363540 8.9% 391109
23 11-Oct 324638 417680 28.7% 392333
24 17-Oct 454160 369199 18.7% 368030
25 7-Nov 371042 376447 1.5% 404253
26 14-Nov 425135 420913 1.0% 386696
27 21-Nov 233610 392679 68.1% 414712
28 5-Dec 367168 348525 5.1% 318554
29 12-Dec 454282 287033 36.8% 338694
30 19-Dec 383850 402014 4.7% 384014
455%
C. de datos 28 C. de datos
Mape 16.25% Mape
0.3 0.2
Error % abs
1.8%
41.9%
8.0% 0,4 Y 0,6
9.4%
21.3% PMP 3 0,5. 0,3, 0,2
12.4%
19.4%
2.4%
3.1%
2.9%
6.5%
1.8%
32.5%
1.0%
1.7%
2.5%
25.0%
16.5%
2.0%
20.9%
19.0%
9.0%
9.0%
77.5%
13.2%
25.4%
0.0%
386%
27
14.30%
(alfa*3 + (1-ALFA)*1
Vaca P/Engorda 0.1 0.2
Datos mes Precio SE Error % abs SE Error % abs
1 9-Jan 426537
2 16-Jan 395976
3 23-Jan 258146 411256 59.31% 411256 59.31%
4 30-Jan 339126 395945 16.75% 380634 12.24%
5 6-Feb 229890 390263 69.76% 372333 61.96%
6 13-Feb 291791 374226 28.25% 343844 17.84%
7 20-Feb 311934 365983 17.33% 333433 6.89%
8 27-Feb 238720 360578 51.05% 329134 37.87%
9 6-Mar 309599 348392 12.53% 311051 0.47%
10 13-Mar 358326 344513 3.85% 310761 13.27%
11 20-Mar 312342 345894 10.74% 320274 2.54%
12 27-Mar 315700 342539 8.50% 318687 0.95%
13 3-Apr 332722 339855 2.14% 318090 4.40%
14 11-Apr 303783 339142 11.64% 321016 5.67%
15 17-Apr 320563 335606 4.69% 317570 0.93%
16 16-Aug 471022 334102 29.07% 318168 32.45%
17 22-Aug 396413 347794 12.26% 348739 12.03%
18 29-Aug 396808 352655 11.13% 358274 9.71%
19 5-Sep 401402 357071 11.04% 365981 8.82%
20 12-Sep 319102 361504 13.29% 373065 16.91%
21 26-Sep 430195 357264 16.95% 362272 15.79%
22 3-Oct 398907 364557 8.61% 375857 5.78%
23 11-Oct 324638 367992 13.35% 380467 17.20%
24 17-Oct 454160 363656 19.93% 369301 18.68%
25 7-Nov 371042 372707 0.45% 386273 4.11%
26 14-Nov 425135 372540 12.37% 383227 9.86%
27 21-Nov 233610 377800 61.72% 391608 67.63%
28 5-Dec 367168 363381 1.03% 360009 1.95%
29 12-Dec 454282 363760 19.93% 361441 20.44%
30 19-Dec 383850 372812 2.88% 380009 1.00%
530.57% 466.71%
C. de datos 28 C. de datos 28
Mape 18.95% Mape 16.67%
0.3 0.4 0.5
SE Error % abs SE Error absoluto Error abs Error % abs SE Error % abs
Cantidad de
Mape
Ps alfa*T+(1-alfa)+(PM*TS) TS BETA*(T-PS)+(1-BETA)*TS
Error abs %
7.72%
62.39%
11.86% α 0.2 Chart Title
57.48% β 0.2 500000
10.02% 450000
4.00% 400000
20.11% 350000
16.03% 300000
28.91% 250000
15.34%
200000
16.09%
150000
19.45%
100000
8.99%
50000
13.11%
39.44% 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202
17.23%
11.74%
7.86%
21.51%
11.00%
1.04%
27.15%
11.44%
13.65%
1.52%
82.91%
5.72%
15.75%
3.86%
563.32%
29
19.42%
SET SUMA DE 2 ANTES
Chart Title
7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
Precio de la leche Region de los lagos
Datos Mes Precio Pms N3 Error % abs Pms N4
1 282.20
2 276.60
3 277.48
4 284.39 279 2.0%
5 289.76 279 3.5% 280
6 297.00 284 4.4% 282
7 307.53 290 5.6% 287
8 350.79 298 15.0% 295
9 354.79 318 10.2% 311
10 348.43 338 3.1% 328
11 344.04 351 2.1% 340
12 340.87 349 2.4% 350
13 309.93 344 11.1% 347
14 310.75 332 6.7% 336
15 307.32 321 4.3% 326
16 307.01 309 0.8% 317
17 314.08 308 1.8% 309
18 331.79 309 6.7% 310
19 359.84 318 11.7% 315
20 418.58 335 19.9% 328
21 429.37 370 13.8% 356
22 421.47 403 4.5% 385
23 418.18 423 1.2% 407
24 405.91 423 4.2% 422
25 388.35 415 6.9% 419
26 382.46 404 5.7% 408
27 386.63 392 1.5% 399
28 396.71 386 2.7% 391
29 403.10 389 3.6% 389
30 413.78 395 4.4% 392
160%
C. de datos 27 C. de datos
Mape 5.92% Mape
Error % abs Pms N5 ET Error absolut Error % abs Pms N6
3.3%
5.0% 282 15 15 5.0%
6.6% 285 22 22 7.3% 285
16.0% 291 60 60 17.0% 289
12.3% 306 49 49 13.8% 301
6.0% 320 28 28 8.2% 314
1.1% 332 12 12 3.6% 325
2.5% 341 -0 0 0.1% 334
12.0% 348 -38 38 12.2% 341
8.1% 340 -29 29 9.3% 341
6.2% 331 -23 23 7.6% 335
3.3% 323 -16 16 5.1% 327
1.7% 315 -1 1 0.3% 320
6.6% 310 22 22 6.6% 315
12.4% 314 46 46 12.7% 313
21.6% 324 95 95 22.6% 322
17.1% 346 83 83 19.4% 340
8.7% 371 51 51 12.0% 360
2.6% 392 26 26 6.2% 379
3.9% 409 -4 4 0.9% 397
7.8% 419 -30 30 7.8% 409
6.8% 413 -30 30 7.9% 414
3.1% 403 -17 17 4.3% 408
1.5% 396 0 0 0.1% 401
3.6% 392 11 11 2.8% 396
5.2% 391 22 22 5.4% 394
185% 198%
26 C. de datos 25 C. de datos
7.12% Mape 7.93% Mape
Error % abs Pms N7 Error % abs Pms N8 Error % abs
7.5%
17.7% 288 17.9%
15.1% 298 16.1% 296 16.6%
9.9% 309 11.4% 305 12.5%
5.6% 319 7.3% 314 8.8%
2.1% 327 3.9% 322 5.5%
10.0% 335 8.0% 329 6.2%
9.9% 337 8.3% 332 6.7%
8.9% 337 9.7% 333 8.5%
6.5% 331 7.8% 333 8.6%
1.9% 324 3.2% 328 4.4%
5.1% 319 3.8% 323 2.7%
12.9% 317 11.8% 321 10.9%
23.1% 320 23.5% 323 22.9%
20.9% 336 21.8% 332 22.6%
14.6% 353 16.3% 347 17.6%
9.3% 369 11.8% 361 13.6%
2.3% 385 5.2% 375 7.6%
5.3% 398 2.5% 387 0.2%
8.2% 406 6.1% 397 3.7%
5.4% 409 5.8% 403 4.2%
1.0% 405 2.0% 406 2.4%
1.7% 400 0.8% 404 0.1%
4.8% 397 4.0% 400 3.2%
209% 209% 190%
24 C. de datos 23 C. de datos 22
8.73% Mape 9.09% Mape 8.63%
Pms N9 Error % abs
302 13.2%
310 10.0%
317 7.0%
324 4.6%
327 5.2%
329 7.2%
330 7.6%
330 5.2%
326 1.6%
324 10.0%
325 22.3%
333 22.4%
343 18.6%
356 15.0%
368 9.5%
378 2.5%
388 1.3%
395 2.2%
401 1.1%
405 0.5%
404 2.5%
170%
C. de datos 21
Mape 8.08%
0.9 0.1
Precio de la leche Region de los lagos
Datos Mes Precio PmP 0,9*01 Error % abs PmP 0,8*0,2
1 282.20
2 276.60
3 277.48 277 0.1%
4 284.39 277 2.5% 278
5 289.76 284 2.1% 281
6 297.00 289 2.6% 286
7 307.53 296 3.7% 292
8 350.79 306 12.6% 301
9 354.79 346 2.3% 327
10 348.43 354 1.7% 344
11 344.04 349 1.5% 351
12 340.87 344 1.1% 348
13 309.93 341 10.1% 343
14 310.75 313 0.7% 326
15 307.32 311 1.1% 317
16 307.01 308 0.2% 309
17 314.08 307 2.2% 308
18 331.79 313 5.6% 311
19 359.84 330 8.3% 322
20 418.58 357 14.7% 342
21 429.37 413 3.9% 384
22 421.47 428 1.6% 412
23 418.18 422 1.0% 423
24 405.91 419 3.1% 421
25 388.35 407 4.8% 413
26 382.46 390 2.0% 400
27 386.63 383 0.9% 389
28 396.71 386 2.6% 386
29 403.10 396 1.8% 391
30 413.78 402 2.7% 398
98%
C. de datos 28 C. de datos
Mape 3.48% Mape
0.5 0.3 0.2
Error % abs
2.2%
3.1%
3.8%
5.0%
14.2%
7.8%
1.2%
2.0%
1.9%
10.8%
4.9%
3.0%
0.6%
2.0%
6.4%
10.6%
18.2%
10.7%
2.2%
1.2%
3.8%
6.3%
4.5%
0.6%
2.8%
3.0%
3.8%
137%
27
5.06%
0.1 0.2
Precio de la leche Region de los lagos
Datos Mes Precio SE Error % abs SE Error % abs
1 282.20
2 276.60
3 277.48 279 0.69% 279 0.69%
4 284.39 279 1.82% 279 1.89%
5 289.76 280 3.46% 280 3.34%
6 297.00 281 5.48% 282 5.04%
7 307.53 282 8.19% 285 7.32%
8 350.79 285 18.79% 290 17.47%
9 354.79 291 17.85% 302 14.94%
10 348.43 298 14.53% 312 10.35%
11 344.04 303 11.97% 320 7.11%
12 340.87 307 9.94% 324 4.81%
13 309.93 310 0.14% 328 5.75%
14 310.75 310 0.14% 324 4.33%
15 307.32 310 0.99% 322 4.62%
16 307.01 310 0.99% 319 3.80%
17 314.08 310 1.38% 316 0.72%
18 331.79 310 6.51% 316 4.79%
19 359.84 312 13.20% 319 11.33%
20 418.58 317 24.24% 327 21.83%
21 429.37 327 23.78% 345 19.54%
22 421.47 337 19.93% 362 14.05%
23 418.18 346 17.29% 374 10.54%
24 405.91 353 13.01% 383 5.66%
25 388.35 358 7.72% 388 0.21%
26 382.46 361 5.51% 388 1.37%
27 386.63 363 5.99% 387 0.00%
28 396.71 366 7.79% 387 2.54%
29 403.10 369 8.49% 389 3.58%
30 413.78 372 10.02% 392 5.37%
259.86% 192.97%
C. de datos 28 C. de datos 28
Mape 9.28% Mape 6.89%
0.3 0.4 0.5
SE Error % abs SE Error absoluto Error abs Error % abs SE Error % abs
Cantidad de
Mape
alfa beta
0.9 0.9
Error abs %
3.11%
1.44%
2.83%
0.14%
0.40%
1.17%
9.59%
8.42%
6.42%
0.45%
0.88%
8.63%
7.63%
1.72%
0.74%
2.39%
3.79%
3.68%
7.95%
9.23%
7.95%
0.27%
1.47%
1.78%
2.68%
3.55%
2.23%
0.62%
0.65%
101.81%
29
3.51%
LITROS DE LECHE
2000 VACAS MUEREN 400 precio de leche por trimestre
Tabla de ingresos
T1 T2 T3 T4
Año 1 $ 1,412,460,000 $ 1,338,120,000 $ 1,263,780,000 $ 1,189,440,000
Año 2 $ 1,129,968,000 $ 1,070,496,000 $ 1,011,024,000 $ 951,552,000
Año 3 $ 903,974,400 $ 856,396,800 $ 808,819,200 $ 761,241,600
Año 4 $ 723,328,200 $ 685,414,800 $ 647,501,400 $ 609,588,000
Año 5 $ 579,108,600 $ 548,629,200 $ 518,149,800 $ 487,670,400
Tabla de ingresos
T1 T2 T3 T4
Año 1 $ 570,000 $ 540,000 $ 510,000 $ 480,000
Año 2 $ 456,000 $ 432,000 $ 408,000 $ 384,000
Año 3 $ 364,800 $ 345,600 $ 326,400 $ 307,200
Año 4 $ 291,900 $ 276,600 $ 261,300 $ 246,000
Año 5 $ 233,700 $ 221,400 $ 209,100 $ 196,800
Tabla de ingresos
T1 T2 T3 T4
Año 1 $ 342,000 $ 324,000 $ 306,000 $ 288,000
Año 2 $ 273,600 $ 259,200 $ 244,800 $ 230,400
Año 3 $ 218,880 $ 207,360 $ 195,840 $ 184,320
Año 4 $ 175,140 $ 165,960 $ 156,780 $ 147,600
Año 5 $ 140,220 $ 132,840 $ 125,460 $ 118,080
Tabla de ingresos
T1 T2 T3 T4
Año 1 $ 114,000 $ 108,000 $ 102,000 $ 96,000
Año 2 $ 91,200 $ 86,400 $ 81,600 $ 76,800
Año 3 $ 72,960 $ 69,120 $ 65,280 $ 61,440
Año 4 $ 58,380 $ 55,320 $ 52,260 $ 49,200
Año 5 $ 46,740 $ 44,280 $ 41,820 $ 39,360
Tabla de ingresos
T1 T2 T3 T4
Año 1 $ 138,510,000 $ 131,220,000 $ 123,930,000 $ 116,640,000
Año 2 $ 110,808,000 $ 104,976,000 $ 99,144,000 $ 93,312,000
Año 3 $ 88,646,400 $ 83,980,800 $ 79,315,200 $ 74,649,600
Año 4 $ 70,931,700 $ 67,213,800 $ 63,495,900 $ 59,778,000
Año 5 $ 56,789,100 $ 53,800,200 $ 50,811,300 $ 47,822,400
Tabla de ingresos
T1 T2 T3 T4
Año 1 $ 128,250,000 $ 121,500,000 $ 114,750,000 $ 108,000,000
Año 2 $ 102,600,000 $ 97,200,000 $ 91,800,000 $ 86,400,000
Año 3 $ 82,080,000 $ 77,760,000 $ 73,440,000 $ 69,120,000
Año 4 $ 65,677,500 $ 62,235,000 $ 58,792,500 $ 55,350,000
Año 5 $ 52,582,500 $ 49,815,000 $ 47,047,500 $ 44,280,000
Tabla de ingresos
T1 T2 T3 T4
Año 1 $2,280,000 $2,160,000 $2,040,000 $1,920,000
Año 2 $1,824,000 $1,728,000 $1,632,000 $1,536,000
Año 3 $1,459,200 $1,382,400 $1,305,600 $1,228,800
Año 4 $1,167,600 $1,106,400 $1,045,200 $ 984,000
Año 5 $ 934,800 $ 885,600 $ 836,400 $ 787,200
Trimestre T1 T2 T3 T4 Trimestre
Año 1 3280500 3207600 3134700 3061800 Año 1
Año 2 3061800 3061800 3061800 3061800 Año 2
Año 3 3061800 3061800 3061800 3061800 Año 3
Año 4 3061800 3061800 3061800 3061800 Año 4
Año 5 3061800 3061800 3061800 3061800 Año 5
46 Toros Mueren 3% 1.38 44.62
Trimestre T1 T2 T3 T4 Trimestre
Año 1 Año 1
Año 2 Año 2
Año 3 Año 3
Año 4 Año 4
Año 5 Año 5
46*18*45*30*3
46 Toros Mueren 2% 0.92 45.08
T1 T2 T3 T4
46 46 46 46
46 46 46 46
46 0 0 0
46 0 0 0
46 0 0 0
46 Toros Mueren 4% 1.84 44.16
540000
$ 67