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Step 7 ECL
1
7
Step 1 Compile Quarterly aging
Increase in Default
Dec-2018 Mar-2019
Months Debtors SAIBOR
- 333,678
31-Dec-18 38,447,780 2.90% - 333,678
31-Mar-19 - 2.89% - -
30-Jun-19 - 2.76% - -
30-Sep-19 - 2.38% - -
31-Dec-19 552,083 2.24% - -
31-Mar-20 828,398 1.30% - -
30-Jun-20 3,795,438 1.03% - -
30-Sep-20 1,026,145 0.88% - -
31-Dec-20 - 0.82% - -
31-Mar-21 1,717,772 0.80% - -
30-Jun-21 2,205,697 0.79% - -
30-Sep-21 - 0.80% - -
31-Dec-21 - 0.87% - -
27-Mar-22 - 1.20% - -
30-Apr-22 1,251,578 1.20% - -
31-May-22 - 1.20% - -
30-Jun-22 7,843,122 1.20% - -
30-Sep-22 - 3.75% - -
31-Dec-22 3,195,557 5.28% - -
31-Mar-23 28,514,025 5.53% - -
Jun-2019 Sep-2019 Dec-2019 Mar-2020 Jun-2020
1,196,866 2,045,559 - - -
1,196,866 2,045,559 - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
Sep-2020 Dec-2020 Mar-2021 Jun-2021 Sep-2021
- 1,775,137 - - 1,579,564
- 1,775,137 - - 1,579,564
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
Dec-2021 Mar-2022 Apr-2022 May-2022 Jun-2022
PV Of Recoveries
2,976,141 - - -
2,976,141 - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
Total -
Mar-2019 Jun-2019 Sep-2019 Dec-2019 Mar-2020
- - 1,775,137 - -
- - 1,676,360 - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - 1,676,360 - -
Sep-2021 Dec-2021 Mar-2022 Apr-2022 May-2022
- 2,976,141 - -
- 2,976,141 - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - -
- -
- -
- 2,976,141 - - 21,986,545
Step 3 Roll Rate
Month Not due 1 to 30 31 to 60 61 to 90 91 to 120 121 to 150 151 to 180 181 to 210
31-Mar-19 100% 42% 59% 100% 37% 20% 39% 100%
30-Jun-19 100% 59% 72% 100% 58% 100% 100% 100%
30-Sep-19 100% 100% 12% 100% 38% 79% 62% 41%
31-Dec-19 100% 42% 9% 100% 100% 38% 100% 73%
31-Mar-20 80% 81% 100% 100% 47% 7% 100% 100%
30-Jun-20 100% 39% 67% 50% 73% 100% 86% 26%
30-Sep-20 100% 72% 100% 71% 53% 30% 53% 100%
31-Dec-20 100% 100% 80% 44% 17% 66% 100% 20%
31-Mar-21 51% 87% 87% 100% 100% 100% 83% 15%
30-Jun-21 96% 100% 61% 8% 87% 36% 100% 100%
30-Sep-21 71% 100% 70% 81% 100% 34% 11% 100%
31-Dec-21 100% 100% 100% 66% 50% 14% 100% 100%
27-Mar-22 100% 59% 100% 95% 59% 94% 100% 32%
30-Apr-22 0% 22% 52% 43% 100% 78% 100% 100%
31-May-22 99% 100% 98% 100% 100% 35% 99% 92%
30-Jun-22 99% 89% 79% 93% 93% 100% 100% 51%
30-Sep-22 100% 52% 44% 100% 100% 40% 26% 63%
31-Dec-22 100% 61% 70% 70% 46% 54% 100% 100%
31-Mar-23 100% 14% 2% 100% 24% 41% 95% 100%
89% 70% 66% 80% 67% 56% 82% 74%
Through the cycle PD 1.2% 1.3% 1.9% 2.8% 3.5% 5.2% 9.3% 11.3%
211 to 240 241 to 270 271 to 300 Above 300
47% 100% 0% 100%
27% 79% 0% 100%
100% 100% 0% 100%
48% 18% 12% 100%
58% 100% 100% 100%
13% 100% 84% 100%
100% 89% 17% 100%
100% 72% 0% 100%
100% 87% 44% 100%
100% 66% 67% 100%
31% 100% 0% 100%
9% 78% 0% 100%
100% 100% 0% 100%
100% 27% 97% 100%
100% 100% 0% 100%
100% 97% 100% 100%
63% 22% 100% 100%
49% 100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 100% 100% Default
71% 81% 43% 100% 61.87%
15.3% 21.6% 26.7% 61.9%
Step 4 Regression Analysis
**GDP & CPI have highest correlation with default rate hence the same are used scenario analysis.
Source: EIU
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 1
R Square 1
Adjusted R Square 0
Standard Error 0
Observations 4
ANOVA
df SS
Regression 2 0
Residual 1 0
Total 3 0.0048858586616143
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 1
R Square 1
Adjusted R Square 1
Standard Error 0
Observations 4
ANOVA
df SS
Regression 2 0
Residual 1 0
Total 3 0.0048858586616143
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 1
R Square 1
Adjusted R Square (0)
Standard Error 0
Observations 4
ANOVA
df SS
Regression 2 0
Residual 1 0
Total 3 0.0048858586616143
0.4633 -
- 0.1329
0.4700 0.4734
ed scenario analysis.
Percent change
Scenario 1
GDP CPI
2.51 2.46
0.33 -2.09
-4.14 3.45
2.90 3.06
MS F Significance F
0 2 0
0
MS F Significance F
0 25 0
0
GDP CPI
Normalization
2022 0.29 1.29 (0.71) 0.294 (0.706) 1.294
2023 0.29 1.29 (0.71) 0.049 (0.951) 1.049
2024 0.27 1.27 (0.73) (0.098) (1.098) 0.902
Macroeconomic indicator
Selected
Weightage
GDP 50%
CPI 50%
Weightage
Base 68%
Better 16%
Worst 16%