Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers

Double Exponential Smoothing

Alpha 0.6
Beta 0.4

Year Annual CPI Level (a) Trend (b) Forecast Absolute Error
2003 184.0 184.000 4.900
2004 188.9 188.900 4.900 188.900 0.000
2005 195.3 194.700 5.260 193.800 1.500
2006 201.6 200.944 5.654 199.960 1.640
2007 207.342 207.044 5.832 206.598 0.744
2008 215.303 214.332 6.415 212.876 2.427
2009 214.537 217.021 4.924 220.747 6.210
2010 218.056 219.612 3.991 221.945 3.889
2011 224.939 224.404 4.312 223.602 1.337
2012 229.594 229.243 4.522 228.716 0.878
2013 233.765
2014 238.287
MAD 2.328
 Beta →
2.328 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
Alpha ↓ 0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Minimum 1.95951

Consumer Price Index

300.0

250.0

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Annual CPI Forecast

0.9 1