Australia Wine Sales Monthly

month drywhite Forecast(drywhite) Lower Confidence Bound(drywhite)
1980-01-01 1954
1980-02-01 2302
1980-03-01 3054
1980-04-01 2414
1980-05-01 2226
1980-06-01 2725
1980-07-01 2589
1980-08-01 3470
1980-09-01 2400
1980-10-01 3180
1980-11-01 4009
1980-12-01 3924
1981-01-01 2072
1981-02-01 2434
1981-03-01 2956
1981-04-01 2828
1981-05-01 2687
1981-06-01 2629
1981-07-01 3150
1981-08-01 4119
1981-09-01 3030
1981-10-01 3055
1981-11-01 3821
1981-12-01 4001
1982-01-01 2529
1982-02-01 2472
1982-03-01 3134
1982-04-01 2789
1982-05-01 2758
1982-06-01 2993
1982-07-01 3282
1982-08-01 3437
1982-09-01 2804
1982-10-01 3076
1982-11-01 3782
1982-12-01 3889
1983-01-01 2271
1983-02-01 2452
1983-03-01 3084
1983-04-01 2522
1983-05-01 2769
1983-06-01 3438
1983-07-01 2839
1983-08-01 3746
1983-09-01 2632
1983-10-01 2851
1983-11-01 3871
1983-12-01 3618
1984-01-01 2389
1984-02-01 2344
1984-03-01 2678
1984-04-01 2492
1984-05-01 2858
1984-06-01 2246
1984-07-01 2800
1984-08-01 3869
1984-09-01 3007
1984-10-01 3023
1984-11-01 3907
1984-12-01 4209
1985-01-01 2353
1985-02-01 2570
1985-03-01 2903
1985-04-01 2910
1985-05-01 3782
1985-06-01 2759
1985-07-01 2931
1985-08-01 3641
1985-09-01 2794
1985-10-01 3070
1985-11-01 3576
1985-12-01 4106
1986-01-01 2452
1986-02-01 2206
1986-03-01 2488
1986-04-01 2416
1986-05-01 2534
1986-06-01 2521
1986-07-01 3093
1986-08-01 3903
1986-09-01 2907
1986-10-01 3025
1986-11-01 3812
1986-12-01 4209
1987-01-01 2138
1987-02-01 2419
1987-03-01 2622
1987-04-01 2912
1987-05-01 2708
1987-06-01 2798
1987-07-01 3254
1987-08-01 2895
1987-09-01 3263
1987-10-01 3736
1987-11-01 4077
1987-12-01 4097
1988-01-01 2175
1988-02-01 3138
1988-03-01 2823
1988-04-01 2498
1988-05-01 2822
1988-06-01 2738
1988-07-01 4137
1988-08-01 3515
1988-09-01 3785
1988-10-01 3632
1988-11-01 4504
1988-12-01 4451
1989-01-01 2550
1989-02-01 2867
1989-03-01 3458
1989-04-01 2961
1989-05-01 3163
1989-06-01 2880
1989-07-01 3331
1989-08-01 3062
1989-09-01 3534
1989-10-01 3622
1989-11-01 4464
1989-12-01 5411
1990-01-01 2564
1990-02-01 2820
1990-03-01 3508
1990-04-01 3088
1990-05-01 3299
1990-06-01 2939
1990-07-01 3320
1990-08-01 3418
1990-09-01 3604
1990-10-01 3495
1990-11-01 4163
1990-12-01 4882
1991-01-01 2211
1991-02-01 3260
1991-03-01 2992
1991-04-01 2425
1991-05-01 2707
1991-06-01 3244
1991-07-01 3965
1991-08-01 3315
1991-09-01 3333
1991-10-01 3583
1991-11-01 4021
1991-12-01 4904
1992-01-01 2252
1992-02-01 2952
1992-03-01 3573
1992-04-01 3048
1992-05-01 3059
1992-06-01 2731
1992-07-01 3563
1992-08-01 3092
1992-09-01 3478
1992-10-01 3478
1992-11-01 4308
1992-12-01 5029
1993-01-01 2075
1993-02-01 3264
1993-03-01 3308
1993-04-01 3688
1993-05-01 3136
1993-06-01 2824
1993-07-01 3644
1993-08-01 4694
1993-09-01 2914
1993-10-01 3686
1993-11-01 4358
1993-12-01 5587
1994-01-01 2265
1994-02-01 3685
1994-03-01 3754
1994-04-01 3708
1994-05-01 3210
1994-06-01 3517
1994-07-01 3905
1994-08-01 3670
1994-09-01 4221
1994-10-01 4404
1994-11-01 5086
1994-12-01 5725
1995-01-01 2367
1995-02-01 3819
1995-03-01 4067
1995-04-01 4022
1995-05-01 3937
1995-06-01 4365
1995-07-01 4290 4290 4290.00
1995-08-01 4493.60327990752 3829.51
1995-09-01 4351.99073555934 3667.14
1995-10-01 4593.4540909184 3888.30
1995-11-01 5261.46429406072 4536.41
1995-12-01 5967.88045156057 5223.31
1996-01-01 3035.74880843527 2272.02
1996-02-01 4140.0344418624 3357.47
1996-03-01 4312.20648026554 3511.10
1996-04-01 4155.90800025541 3336.55
1996-05-01 3988.41577639182 3151.06
1996-06-01 4083.10627735229 3228.00
1996-07-01 4492.43931735166 3619.81
1996-08-01 4585.76851771563 3649.00
1996-09-01 4444.15597336744 3491.12
1996-10-01 4685.61932872651 3716.47
1996-11-01 5353.62953186883 4368.52
1996-12-01 6060.04568936868 5059.10
1997-01-01 3127.91404624337 2111.27
1997-02-01 4232.1996796705 3199.98
1997-03-01 4404.37171807364 3356.70
1997-04-01 4248.07323806351 3185.05
1997-05-01 4080.58101419993 3002.32
1997-06-01 4175.27151516039 3081.88
1997-07-01 4584.60455515976 3476.17
1997-08-01 4677.93375552373 3515.96
1997-09-01 4536.32121117554 3359.98
1997-10-01 4777.78456653461 3587.15
1997-11-01 5445.79476967693 4240.93
1997-12-01 6152.21092717678 4933.19
1998-01-01 3220.07928405148 1986.95
1998-02-01 4324.36491747861 3077.20
1998-03-01 4496.53695588174 3235.39
1998-04-01 4340.23847587162 3065.17
1998-05-01 4172.74625200803 2883.80
1998-06-01 4267.43675296849 2964.67
1998-07-01 4676.76979296787 3360.23
1998-08-01 4770.09899333184 3406.12
1998-09-01 4628.48644898365 3251.16
1998-10-01 4869.94980434272 3479.32
1998-11-01 5537.96000748504 4134.05
1998-12-01 6244.37616498489 4827.23
1999-01-01 3312.24452185958 1881.89
1999-02-01 4416.53015528671 2973.01
1999-03-01 4588.70219368985 3132.03
1999-04-01 4432.40371367972 2962.62
1999-05-01 4264.91148981613 2782.04
1999-06-01 4359.6019907766 2863.67
1999-07-01 4768.93503077597 3259.97
1999-08-01 4862.26423113994 3309.88
1999-09-01 4720.65168679175 3155.54
1999-10-01 4962.11504215082 3384.29
1999-11-01 5630.12524529314 4039.60
1999-12-01 6336.54140279299 4733.34
2000-01-01 3404.40975966768 1788.55
2000-02-01 4508.69539309481 2880.19
2000-03-01 4680.86743149795 3039.73
2000-04-01 4524.56895148783 2870.82
2000-05-01 4357.07672762424 2690.73
2000-05-16 4402.89471195995 2730.44
Upper Confidence Bound(drywhite)
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1980-01-01 1981-09-01 1983-05-01 1985-01-01 1986-09-01 1988-05-01 1990-01-01 1991-09-
drywhite Forecast(drywhite) Lower Confidence Bound(dry
select data drywhite and month

data
forecast (rightish)
forecast sheet
4290.00
5157.69
5036.84
5298.61
5986.52
6712.45
3799.48
4922.60
5113.31
4975.27
4825.77
4938.21
5365.07
5522.54
5397.19
5654.77
6338.74
7060.99
4144.56
5264.42
5452.05
5311.09
5158.84
5268.67
5693.04
5839.90
5712.66
5968.42
6650.66
7371.24
4453.20
5571.53
5757.68
5615.31
5461.69
5570.20
5993.31
6134.08
6005.81
6260.58
6941.87
7661.52
4742.59
5860.05
6045.37
5902.19
5747.78
5855.53
6277.90
6414.65
6285.76
6539.94
7220.65
7939.74
5020.27
6137.20
6322.00
6178.32
6023.43
6075.35
9-01 1988-05-01 1990-01-01 1991-09-01 1993-05-01 1995-01-01 1996-09-01 1998-05-01 2000-01-01
Lower Confidence Bound(drywhite) Upper Confidence Bound(drywhite)
drywhite and month

date month month drywhite fortified red rose sparkling sweetwhite
1/1/1980 1 1980-01-01 1954 2585 464 112 1686 85
2/1/1980 2 1980-02-01 2302 3368 675 118 1591 89
3/1/1980 3 1980-03-01 3054 3210 703 129 2304 109
4/1/1980 4 1980-04-01 2414 3111 887 99 1712 95
5/1/1980 5 1980-05-01 2226 3756 1139 116 1471 91
6/1/1980 6 1980-06-01 2725 4216 1077 168 1377 95
7/1/1980 7 1980-07-01 2589 5225 1318 118 1966 96
8/1/1980 8 1980-08-01 3470 4426 1260 129 2453 128
9/1/1980 9 1980-09-01 2400 3932 1120 205 1984 124
10/1/1980 10 1980-10-01 3180 3816 963 147 2596 111
11/1/1980 11 1980-11-01 4009 3661 996 150 4087 178
12/1/1980 12 1980-12-01 3924 3795 960 267 5179 140
1/1/1981 1 1981-01-01 2072 2285 530 126 1530 150
2/1/1981 2 1981-02-01 2434 2934 883 129 1523 132
3/1/1981 3 1981-03-01 2956 2985 894 124 1633 155
4/1/1981 4 1981-04-01 2828 3646 1045 97 1976 132
5/1/1981 5 1981-05-01 2687 4198 1199 102 1170 91
6/1/1981 6 1981-06-01 2629 4935 1287 127 1480 94
7/1/1981 7 1981-07-01 3150 5618 1565 222 1781 109
8/1/1981 8 1981-08-01 4119 5454 1577 214 2472 155
9/1/1981 9 1981-09-01 3030 3624 1076 118 1981 123
10/1/1981 10 1981-10-01 3055 2898 918 141 2273 130
11/1/1981 11 1981-11-01 3821 3802 1008 154 3857 150
12/1/1981 12 1981-12-01 4001 2369 1063 226 4551 163
1/1/1982 1 1982-01-01 2529 2369 544 89 1510 101
2/1/1982 2 1982-02-01 2472 2511 635 77 1329 123
3/1/1982 3 1982-03-01 3134 3079 804 82 1518 127
4/1/1982 4 1982-04-01 2789 3728 980 97 1790 112
5/1/1982 5 1982-05-01 2758 4151 1018 127 1537 108
6/1/1982 6 1982-06-01 2993 4326 1064 121 1449 116
7/1/1982 7 1982-07-01 3282 5054 1404 117 1954 153
8/1/1982 8 1982-08-01 3437 5138 1286 117 1897 163
9/1/1982 9 1982-09-01 2804 3310 1104 106 1706 128
10/1/1982 10 1982-10-01 3076 3508 999 112 2514 142
11/1/1982 11 1982-11-01 3782 3790 996 134 3593 170
12/1/1982 12 1982-12-01 3889 3446 1015 169 4524 214
1/1/1983 1 1983-01-01 2271 2127 615 75 1609 134
2/1/1983 2 1983-02-01 2452 2523 722 108 1638 122
3/1/1983 3 1983-03-01 3084 3017 832 115 2030 142
4/1/1983 4 1983-04-01 2522 3265 977 85 1375 156
5/1/1983 5 1983-05-01 2769 3822 1270 101 1320 145
6/1/1983 6 1983-06-01 3438 4027 1437 108 1245 169
7/1/1983 7 1983-07-01 2839 4420 1520 109 1600 134
8/1/1983 8 1983-08-01 3746 5255 1708 124 2298 165
9/1/1983 9 1983-09-01 2632 4009 1151 105 2191 156
10/1/1983 10 1983-10-01 2851 3074 934 95 2511 111
11/1/1983 11 1983-11-01 3871 3465 1159 135 3440 165
12/1/1983 12 1983-12-01 3618 3718 1209 164 4923 197
1/1/1984 1 1984-01-01 2389 1954 699 88 1609 124
2/1/1984 2 1984-02-01 2344 2604 830 85 1435 124
3/1/1984 3 1984-03-01 2678 3626 996 112 2061 139
4/1/1984 4 1984-04-01 2492 2836 1124 87 1789 137
5/1/1984 5 1984-05-01 2858 4042 1458 91 1567 127
6/1/1984 6 1984-06-01 2246 3584 1270 87 1404 134
7/1/1984 7 1984-07-01 2800 4225 1753 87 1597 136
8/1/1984 8 1984-08-01 3869 4523 2258 142 3159 171
9/1/1984 9 1984-09-01 3007 2892 1208 95 1759 112
10/1/1984 10 1984-10-01 3023 2876 1241 108 2504 110
11/1/1984 11 1984-11-01 3907 3420 1265 139 4273 147
12/1/1984 12 1984-12-01 4209 3159 1828 159 5274 196
1/1/1985 1 1985-01-01 2353 2101 809 61 1771 112
2/1/1985 2 1985-02-01 2570 2181 997 82 1682 118
3/1/1985 3 1985-03-01 2903 2724 1164 124 1846 125
4/1/1985 4 1985-04-01 2910 2954 1205 93 1589 122
5/1/1985 5 1985-05-01 3782 4092 1538 108 1896 120
6/1/1985 6 1985-06-01 2759 3470 1513 75 1379 118
7/1/1985 7 1985-07-01 2931 3990 1378 87 1645 281
8/1/1985 8 1985-08-01 3641 4239 2083 103 2512 344
9/1/1985 9 1985-09-01 2794 2855 1357 90 1771 366
10/1/1985 10 1985-10-01 3070 2897 1536 108 3727 362
11/1/1985 11 1985-11-01 3576 3433 1526 123 4388 580
12/1/1985 12 1985-12-01 4106 3307 1376 129 5434 523
1/1/1986 1 1986-01-01 2452 1914 779 57 1606 348
2/1/1986 2 1986-02-01 2206 2214 1005 65 1523 246
3/1/1986 3 1986-03-01 2488 2320 1193 67 1577 197
4/1/1986 4 1986-04-01 2416 2714 1522 71 1605 306
5/1/1986 5 1986-05-01 2534 3633 1539 76 1765 279
6/1/1986 6 1986-06-01 2521 3295 1546 67 1403 280
7/1/1986 7 1986-07-01 3093 4377 2116 110 2584 358
8/1/1986 8 1986-08-01 3903 4442 2326 118 3318 431
9/1/1986 9 1986-09-01 2907 2774 1596 99 1562 448
10/1/1986 10 1986-10-01 3025 2840 1356 85 2349 433
11/1/1986 11 1986-11-01 3812 2828 1553 107 3987 504
12/1/1986 12 1986-12-01 4209 3758 1613 141 5891 579
1/1/1987 1 1987-01-01 2138 1610 814 58 1389 384
2/1/1987 2 1987-02-01 2419 1968 1150 65 1442 335
3/1/1987 3 1987-03-01 2622 2248 1225 70 1548 320
4/1/1987 4 1987-04-01 2912 3262 1691 86 1935 496
5/1/1987 5 1987-05-01 2708 3164 1759 93 1518 448
6/1/1987 6 1987-06-01 2798 2972 1754 74 1250 377
7/1/1987 7 1987-07-01 3254 4041 2100 87 1847 523
8/1/1987 8 1987-08-01 2895 3402 2062 73 1930 468
9/1/1987 9 1987-09-01 3263 2898 2012 101 2638 428
10/1/1987 10 1987-10-01 3736 2555 1897 100 3114 520
11/1/1987 11 1987-11-01 4077 3056 1964 96 4405 493
12/1/1987 12 1987-12-01 4097 3717 2186 157 7242 662
1/1/1988 1 1988-01-01 2175 1755 966 63 1853 304
2/1/1988 2 1988-02-01 3138 2193 1549 115 1779 308
3/1/1988 3 1988-03-01 2823 2198 1538 70 2108 313
4/1/1988 4 1988-04-01 2498 2777 1612 66 2336 328
5/1/1988 5 1988-05-01 2822 3076 2078 67 1728 354
6/1/1988 6 1988-06-01 2738 3389 2137 83 1661 338
7/1/1988 7 1988-07-01 4137 4231 2907 79 2230 483
8/1/1988 8 1988-08-01 3515 3118 2249 77 1645 355
9/1/1988 9 1988-09-01 3785 2524 1883 102 2421 439
10/1/1988 10 1988-10-01 3632 2280 1739 116 3740 290
11/1/1988 11 1988-11-01 4504 2862 1828 100 4988 352
12/1/1988 12 1988-12-01 4451 3502 1868 135 6757 454
1/1/1989 1 1989-01-01 2550 1558 1138 71 1757 306
2/1/1989 2 1989-02-01 2867 1940 1430 60 1394 303
3/1/1989 3 1989-03-01 3458 2226 1809 89 1982 344
4/1/1989 4 1989-04-01 2961 2676 1763 74 1650 254
5/1/1989 5 1989-05-01 3163 3145 2200 73 1654 309
6/1/1989 6 1989-06-01 2880 3224 2067 91 1406 310
7/1/1989 7 1989-07-01 3331 4117 2503 86 1971 379
8/1/1989 8 1989-08-01 3062 3446 2141 74 1968 294
9/1/1989 9 1989-09-01 3534 2482 2103 87 2608 356
10/1/1989 10 1989-10-01 3622 2349 1972 87 3845 318
11/1/1989 11 1989-11-01 4464 2986 2181 109 4514 405
12/1/1989 12 1989-12-01 5411 3163 2344 137 6694 545
1/1/1990 1 1990-01-01 2564 1651 970 43 1720 268
2/1/1990 2 1990-02-01 2820 1725 1199 69 1321 243
3/1/1990 3 1990-03-01 3508 2622 1718 73 1859 273
4/1/1990 4 1990-04-01 3088 2316 1683 77 1628 273
5/1/1990 5 1990-05-01 3299 2976 2025 69 1615 236
6/1/1990 6 1990-06-01 2939 3263 2051 76 1457 222
7/1/1990 7 1990-07-01 3320 3951 2439 78 1899 302
8/1/1990 8 1990-08-01 3418 2917 2353 70 1605 285
9/1/1990 9 1990-09-01 3604 2380 2230 83 2424 309
10/1/1990 10 1990-10-01 3495 2458 1852 65 3116 322
11/1/1990 11 1990-11-01 4163 2883 2147 110 4286 362
12/1/1990 12 1990-12-01 4882 2579 2286 132 6047 471
1/1/1991 1 1991-01-01 2211 1330 1007 54 1902 198
2/1/1991 2 1991-02-01 3260 1686 1665 55 2049 253
3/1/1991 3 1991-03-01 2992 2457 1642 66 1874 173
4/1/1991 4 1991-04-01 2425 2514 1518 65 1279 186
5/1/1991 5 1991-05-01 2707 2834 1831 60 1432 185
6/1/1991 6 1991-06-01 3244 2757 2207 65 1540 105
7/1/1991 7 1991-07-01 3965 3425 2822 96 2214 228
8/1/1991 8 1991-08-01 3315 3006 2393 55 1857 214
9/1/1991 9 1991-09-01 3333 2369 2306 71 2408 189
10/1/1991 10 1991-10-01 3583 2017 1785 63 3252 270
11/1/1991 11 1991-11-01 4021 2507 2047 74 3627 277
12/1/1991 12 1991-12-01 4904 3168 2171 106 6153 378
1/1/1992 1 1992-01-01 2252 1545 1212 34 1577 185
2/1/1992 2 1992-02-01 2952 1643 1335 47 1667 182
3/1/1992 3 1992-03-01 3573 2112 2011 56 1993 258
4/1/1992 4 1992-04-01 3048 2415 1860 53 1997 179
5/1/1992 5 1992-05-01 3059 2862 1954 53 1783 197
6/1/1992 6 1992-06-01 2731 2822 2152 55 1625 168
7/1/1992 7 1992-07-01 3563 3260 2835 67 2076 250
8/1/1992 8 1992-08-01 3092 2606 2224 52 1773 211
9/1/1992 9 1992-09-01 3478 2264 2182 46 2377 260
10/1/1992 10 1992-10-01 3478 2250 1992 51 3088 234
11/1/1992 11 1992-11-01 4308 2545 2389 58 4096 305
12/1/1992 12 1992-12-01 5029 2856 2724 91 6119 347
1/1/1993 1 1993-01-01 2075 1208 891 33 1494 203
2/1/1993 2 1993-02-01 3264 1412 1247 40 1564 217
3/1/1993 3 1993-03-01 3308 1964 2017 46 1898 227
4/1/1993 4 1993-04-01 3688 2018 2257 45 2121 242
5/1/1993 5 1993-05-01 3136 2329 2255 41 1831 185
6/1/1993 6 1993-06-01 2824 2660 2255 55 1515 175
7/1/1993 7 1993-07-01 3644 2923 3057 57 2048 252
8/1/1993 8 1993-08-01 4694 2626 3330 54 2795 319
9/1/1993 9 1993-09-01 2914 2132 1896 46 1749 202
10/1/1993 10 1993-10-01 3686 1772 2096 52 3339 254
11/1/1993 11 1993-11-01 4358 2526 2374 48 4227 336
12/1/1993 12 1993-12-01 5587 2755 2535 77 6410 431
1/1/1994 1 1994-01-01 2265 1154 1041 30 1197 150
2/1/1994 2 1994-02-01 3685 1568 1728 35 1968 280
3/1/1994 3 1994-03-01 3754 1965 2201 42 1720 187
4/1/1994 4 1994-04-01 3708 2659 2455 48 1725 279
5/1/1994 5 1994-05-01 3210 2354 2204 44 1674 193
6/1/1994 6 1994-06-01 3517 2592 2660 45 1693 227
7/1/1994 7 1994-07-01 3905 2714 3670 #N/A 2031 225
8/1/1994 8 1994-08-01 3670 2294 2665 #N/A 1495 205
9/1/1994 9 1994-09-01 4221 2416 2639 46 2968 259
10/1/1994 10 1994-10-01 4404 2016 2226 51 3385 254
11/1/1994 11 1994-11-01 5086 2799 2586 63 3729 275
12/1/1994 12 1994-12-01 5725 2467 2684 84 5999 394
1/1/1995 1 1995-01-01 2367 1153 1185 30 1070 159
2/1/1995 2 1995-02-01 3819 1482 1749 39 1402 230
3/1/1995 3 1995-03-01 4067 1818 2459 45 1897 188
4/1/1995 4 1995-04-01 4022 2262 2618 52 1862 195
5/1/1995 5 1995-05-01 3937 2612 2585 28 1670 189
6/1/1995 6 1995-06-01 4365 2967 3310 40 1688 220
7/1/1995 7 1995-07-01 4290 3179 3923 62 2031 274
185
total red_12M_Trend Seasonal_CIrregular Reconstruction Month seasonal fa adusted seasonal
15136 1 1.097304 1.1023182
16733 2 1.3526829 1.3588641
20016 3 1.3193618 1.3253908
17708 4 1.0414579 1.046217
18019 5 0.9405608 0.9448588
19227 966.25 1.0312443 1.0808481 1077 6 1.0265533 1.0312443
22893 977.666666666667 1.0933088 1.2330531 1318 7 1.0883355 1.0933088
23739 994.291666666667 0.5285141 2.3977292 1260 8 0.52611 0.5285141
21133 1008.83333333333 0.712012 1.559234 1120 9 0.7087731 0.712012
22591 1017.91666666667 0.8643433 1.0945303 963 10 0.8604115 0.8643433
26786 1029.16666666667 0.9412657 1.0281617 996 11 0.936984 0.9412657
29740 1048.20833333333 1.051663 0.8708574 960 12 1.0468791 1.051663
15028 1071.70833333333 1.1023182 0.4486341 530
17977 1083.08333333333 1.3588641 0.5999607 883 total 11.945414 12
20008 1079.375 1.3253908 0.6249154 894
21354 1078 1.046217 0.9265648 1045
19498 1082.79166666667 0.9448588 1.1719453 1199
22125 1087.66666666667 1.0312443 1.1474168 1287
25817 1077.91666666667 1.0933088 1.3279641 1565
28779 1063.83333333333 0.5285141 2.8047974 1577
20960 1057.375 0.712012 1.4292096 1076
22254 1047.125 0.8643433 1.01428 918
27392 1030.29166666667 0.9412657 1.039413 1008
29945 1014.29166666667 1.051663 0.9965379 1063
16933 995.458333333333 1.1023182 0.495757 544
17892 984.5 1.3588641 0.4746593 635
20533 989.041666666667 1.3253908 0.6133347 804
23569 991.916666666667 1.046217 0.9443416 980
22417 989.416666666667 0.9448588 1.0889342 1018
22084 990.375 1.0312443 1.0417906 1064
26580 996.958333333333 1.0933088 1.2880932 1404
27454 1001.75 0.5285141 2.428986 1286
24081 1002.79166666667 0.712012 1.5462192 1104
23451 1013.16666666667 0.8643433 1.1407706 999
28991 1039.20833333333 0.9412657 1.0182268 996
31386 1059.58333333333 1.051663 0.9108657 1015
16896 1082 1.1023182 0.5156332 615
20045 1101.54166666667 1.3588641 0.4823477 722
23471 1100.79166666667 1.3253908 0.5702618 832
21747 1104.875 1.046217 0.8452003 977
25621 1119.75 0.9448588 1.2003716 1270
23859 1131.33333333333 1.0312443 1.2316992 1437
25500 1139.33333333333 1.0933088 1.2202532 1520
30998 1150.66666666667 0.5285141 2.8085472 1708
24475 1163.625 0.712012 1.3892327 1151
23145 1177.58333333333 0.8643433 0.9176328 934
29701 1178.45833333333 0.9412657 1.0448573 1159
34365 1181.20833333333 1.051663 0.9732473 1209
17556 1213.83333333333 1.1023182 0.5224096 699
22077 1239.125 1.3588641 0.4929319 830
25702 1254.29166666667 1.3253908 0.5991242 996
22214 1271.5 1.046217 0.8449445 1124
26886 1301.70833333333 0.9448588 1.1854327 1458
23191 1332.08333333333 1.0312443 0.9245082 1270
27831 1343.625 1.0933088 1.1933313 1753
35406 1357.58333333333 0.5285141 3.1470296 2258
23195 1367.95833333333 0.712012 1.240243 1208
25110 1374.66666666667 0.8643433 1.0444511 1241
30009 1388.125 0.9412657 0.9681658 1265
36242 1382.625 1.051663 1.2571735 1828
18450 1359.70833333333 1.1023182 0.5397539 809
21845 1358.625 1.3588641 0.540032 997
26488 1377.125 1.3253908 0.6377283 1164
22394 1400.29166666667 1.046217 0.8225206 1205
28057 1392.33333333333 0.9448588 1.1690853 1538
25451 1372.25 1.0312443 1.0691636 1513
24872 1371.33333333333 1.0933088 0.9191013 1378
33424 1372.875 0.5285141 2.8707916 2083
24052 1387.29166666667 0.712012 1.373804 1357
28449 1400.54166666667 0.8643433 1.268846 1536
33533 1401.95833333333 0.9412657 1.1563977 1526
37351 1434.08333333333 1.051663 0.9123626 1376
19969 1474.95833333333 1.1023182 0.4791271 779
21701 1495.04166666667 1.3588641 0.4946941 1005
26249 1497.5 1.3253908 0.6010764 1193
24493 1491.125 1.046217 0.9756158 1522
24603 1502.125 0.9448588 1.0843403 1539
26485 1513.45833333333 1.0312443 0.9905525 1546
30723 1520.95833333333 1.0933088 1.2724933 2116
34569 1528.33333333333 0.5285141 2.8796189 2326
26689 1536.70833333333 0.712012 1.4586602 1596
26157 1552.91666666667 0.8643433 1.0102416 1356
32064 1570.75 0.9412657 1.0503939 1553
38870 1578.75 1.051663 0.9715036 1613
21337 1567.08333333333 1.1023182 0.4712217 814
19419 1573.41666666667 1.3588641 0.5378709 1150
23166 1613.29166666667 1.3253908 0.5729006 1225
28286 1652.95833333333 1.046217 0.9778223 1691
24570 1693.95833333333 0.9448588 1.0989962 1759
24001 1724.16666666667 1.0312443 0.9864812 1754
33151 1747.125 1.0933088 1.0993918 2100
24878 1776.79166666667 0.5285141 2.195814 2062
26804 1786.54166666667 0.712012 1.5817124 2012
28967 1796.54166666667 0.8643433 1.2216415 1897
33311 1825.79166666667 0.9412657 1.1428206 1964
40226 1875.375 1.051663 1.1083718 2186
20504 1916.79166666667 1.1023182 0.4571884 966
23060 1919.20833333333 1.3588641 0.5939546 1549
23562 1907.25 1.3253908 0.6084218 1538
27562 1895 1.046217 0.8130815 1612
23940 1876.08333333333 0.9448588 1.1722669 2078
24584 1870 1.0312443 1.1081572 2137
34303 1872.20833333333 1.0933088 1.4201952 2907
25517 1878.54166666667 0.5285141 2.2652285 2249
23494 1896.125 0.712012 1.394749 1883
29095 1907.5 0.8643433 1.0547481 1739
32903 1909.66666666667 0.9412657 1.0169659 1828
34379 1889.91666666667 1.051663 0.939848 1868
16991 1868.58333333333 1.1023182 0.5524879 1138
21109 1873.25 1.3588641 0.5617774 1430
23740 1892.125 1.3253908 0.7213479 1809
25552 1916.54166666667 1.046217 0.8792498 1763
21752 1951.08333333333 0.9448588 1.1933832 2200
20294 1963.91666666667 1.0312443 1.0206007 2067
29009 1947.29166666667 1.0933088 1.1756743 2503
25500 1933.875 0.5285141 2.0947474 2141
24166 1926.75 0.712012 1.5329451 2103
26960 1916.125 0.8643433 1.1906848 1972
31222 1908.16666666667 0.9412657 1.2143032 2181
38641 1904.83333333333 1.051663 1.1701029 2344
14672 1911 1.1023182 0.4604729 970
17543 1925.125 1.3588641 0.4583363 1199
25453 1925.41666666667 1.3253908 0.6732161 1718
32683 1919 1.046217 0.8382767 1683
22449 1915.16666666667 0.9448588 1.1190552 2025
22316 1914.29166666667 1.0312443 1.0389533 2051
27595 1935.25 1.0933088 1.1527414 2439
25451 1951.5 0.5285141 2.2813754 2353
25421 1941.45833333333 0.712012 1.6132047 2230
25288 1926.5 0.8643433 1.1122072 1852
32568 1924.91666666667 0.9412657 1.1849715 2147
35110 1947.375 1.051663 1.1162207 2286
16052 1965 1.1023182 0.4649004 1007
22146 1969.83333333333 1.3588641 0.6220263 1665
21198 1970.20833333333 1.3253908 0.6288066 1642
19543 1963.25 1.046217 0.739051 1518
22084 1954.29166666667 0.9448588 0.9915898 1831
23816 1958.04166666667 1.0312443 1.0929967 2207
29961 1952.83333333333 1.0933088 1.321749 2822
26773 1954.45833333333 0.5285141 2.316646 2393
26635 1984.08333333333 0.712012 1.6323455 2306
26972 2003.45833333333 0.8643433 1.0307934 1785
30207 2006.29166666667 0.9412657 1.0839558 2047
38687 2004.54166666667 1.051663 1.0298362 2171
16974 1998.04166666667 1.1023182 0.5502893 1212
21697 1985.83333333333 1.3588641 0.4947234 1335
24179 1989.29166666667 1.3253908 0.762728 2011
23757 2012.16666666667 1.046217 0.8835421 1860
25013 2049.45833333333 0.9448588 1.0090636 1954
24019 2059.125 1.0312443 1.0134399 2152
30345 2042.08333333333 1.0933088 1.2698043 2835
24488 2038.66666666667 0.5285141 2.0641058 2224
25156 2055.45833333333 0.712012 1.4909352 2182
25650 2084.54166666667 0.8643433 1.1055859 1992
30923 2101.375 0.9412657 1.2078149 2389
37240 2114.91666666667 1.051663 1.2247213 2724
17466 2170.25 1.1023182 0.372444 891
19463 2204.41666666667 1.3588641 0.4162907 1247
24352 2196.83333333333 1.3253908 0.6927314 2017
26805 2200.54166666667 1.046217 0.9803479 2257
25236 2192.04166666667 0.9448588 1.0887566 2255
24735 2190.41666666667 1.0312443 0.9982936 2255
29356 2216.70833333333 1.0933088 1.2613745 3057
31234 2244.41666666667 0.5285141 2.8072697 3330
22724 2260.33333333333 0.712012 1.1780902 1896
28496 2266.45833333333 0.8643433 1.0699347 2096
32857 2281.20833333333 0.9412657 1.1056141 2374
37198 2323.625 1.051663 1.037374 2535
13652 2321.45833333333 1.1023182 0.4068018 1041
22784 2324.70833333333 1.3588641 0.547015 1728
23565 2361.08333333333 1.3253908 0.7033391 2201
26323 2375.33333333333 1.046217 0.9878822 2455
23779 2390.375 0.9448588 0.97584 2204
27549 2402.58333333333 1.0312443 1.0735979 2660
29660 2409.45833333333 1.0933088 1.3931691 3670
23356 2421.08333333333 0.5285141 2.0827199 2665
#N/A 2438.625 0.712012 1.5198722 2639
#N/A 2461.29166666667 0.8643433 1.0463472 2226
#N/A 2504.25 0.9412657 1.0970808 2586
#N/A 2541.875 1.051663 1.0040417 2684
#N/A 2547.29924242424 1.1023182 0.4220184 1185
#N/A 2537.34090909091 1.3588641 0.5072651 1749
#N/A 2549.52777777778 1.3253908 0.7277041 2459
#N/A 2565.34027777778 1.046217 0.9754453 2618
#N/A 2555.5625 0.9448588 1.0705504 2585
#N/A 2660.5 1.0312443 1.2064329 3310
#N/A 2876.5 1.0933088 1.2474154 3923
adusted seasonal
Seasonal
month month_ drywhite fortified red red_12MMraw_seasonFactor month
1980-01-01 1 1954 2585 464 1
1980-02-01 2 2302 3368 675 2
1980-03-01 3 3054 3210 703 3
1980-04-01 4 2414 3111 887 4
1980-05-01 5 2226 3756 1139 5
1980-06-01 6 2725 4216 1077 966.25 1.1146184 1.0312443 6
1980-07-01 7 2589 5225 1318 977.66667 1.3481077 1.0933088 7
1980-08-01 8 3470 4426 1260 994.29167 1.2672338 0.5285141 8
1980-09-01 9 2400 3932 1120 1008.8333 1.1101933 0.712012 9
1980-10-01 10 3180 3816 963 1017.9167 0.9460499 0.8643433 10
1980-11-01 11 4009 3661 996 1029.1667 0.9677733 0.9412657 11
1980-12-01 12 3924 3795 960 1048.2083 0.9158485 1.051663 12
1981-01-01 1 2072 2285 530 1071.7083 0.4945375 1.1023182
1981-02-01 2 2434 2934 883 1083.0833 0.8152651 1.3588641 total
1981-03-01 3 2956 2985 894 1079.375 0.8282571 1.3253908
1981-04-01 4 2828 3646 1045 1078 0.9693878 1.046217
1981-05-01 5 2687 4198 1199 1082.7917 1.1073229 0.9448588
1981-06-01 6 2629 4935 1287 1087.6667 1.1832669 1.0312443
1981-07-01 7 3150 5618 1565 1077.9167 1.4518748 1.0933088
1981-08-01 8 4119 5454 1577 1063.8333 1.4823751 0.5285141
1981-09-01 9 3030 3624 1076 1057.375 1.0176144 0.712012
1981-10-01 10 3055 2898 918 1047.125 0.8766862 0.8643433
1981-11-01 11 3821 3802 1008 1030.2917 0.9783637 0.9412657
1981-12-01 12 4001 2369 1063 1014.2917 1.048022 1.051663
1982-01-01 1 2529 2369 544 995.45833 0.5464819 1.1023182
1982-02-01 2 2472 2511 635 984.5 0.6449975 1.3588641
1982-03-01 3 3134 3079 804 989.04167 0.8129081 1.3253908
1982-04-01 4 2789 3728 980 991.91667 0.9879862 1.046217
1982-05-01 5 2758 4151 1018 989.41667 1.0288891 0.9448588
1982-06-01 6 2993 4326 1064 990.375 1.0743405 1.0312443
1982-07-01 7 3282 5054 1404 996.95833 1.4082835 1.0933088
1982-08-01 8 3437 5138 1286 1001.75 1.2837534 0.5285141
1982-09-01 9 2804 3310 1104 1002.7917 1.1009266 0.712012
1982-10-01 10 3076 3508 999 1013.1667 0.9860174 0.8643433
1982-11-01 11 3782 3790 996 1039.2083 0.9584219 0.9412657
1982-12-01 12 3889 3446 1015 1059.5833 0.9579237 1.051663
1983-01-01 1 2271 2127 615 1082 0.5683919 1.1023182
1983-02-01 2 2452 2523 722 1101.5417 0.655445 1.3588641
1983-03-01 3 3084 3017 832 1100.7917 0.7558197 1.3253908
1983-04-01 4 2522 3265 977 1104.875 0.8842629 1.046217
1983-05-01 5 2769 3822 1270 1119.75 1.1341817 0.9448588
1983-06-01 6 3438 4027 1437 1131.3333 1.2701827 1.0312443
1983-07-01 7 2839 4420 1520 1139.3333 1.3341135 1.0933088
1983-08-01 8 3746 5255 1708 1150.6667 1.4843569 0.5285141
1983-09-01 9 2632 4009 1151 1163.625 0.9891503 0.712012
1983-10-01 10 2851 3074 934 1177.5833 0.7931498 0.8643433
1983-11-01 11 3871 3465 1159 1178.4583 0.9834883 0.9412657
1983-12-01 12 3618 3718 1209 1181.2083 1.0235282 1.051663
1984-01-01 1 2389 1954 699 1213.8333 0.5758616 1.1023182
1984-02-01 2 2344 2604 830 1239.125 0.6698275 1.3588641
1984-03-01 3 2678 3626 996 1254.2917 0.7940737 1.3253908
1984-04-01 4 2492 2836 1124 1271.5 0.8839953 1.046217
1984-05-01 5 2858 4042 1458 1301.7083 1.1200666 0.9448588
1984-06-01 6 2246 3584 1270 1332.0833 0.9533938 1.0312443
1984-07-01 7 2800 4225 1753 1343.625 1.3046795 1.0933088
1984-08-01 8 3869 4523 2258 1357.5833 1.6632496 0.5285141
1984-09-01 9 3007 2892 1208 1367.9583 0.8830678 0.712012
1984-10-01 10 3023 2876 1241 1374.6667 0.9027643 0.8643433
1984-11-01 11 3907 3420 1265 1388.125 0.9113012 0.9412657
1984-12-01 12 4209 3159 1828 1382.625 1.3221228 1.051663
1985-01-01 1 2353 2101 809 1359.7083 0.5949805 1.1023182
1985-02-01 2 2570 2181 997 1358.625 0.7338302 1.3588641
1985-03-01 3 2903 2724 1164 1377.125 0.8452392 1.3253908
1985-04-01 4 2910 2954 1205 1400.2917 0.860535 1.046217
1985-05-01 5 3782 4092 1538 1392.3333 1.1046205 0.9448588
1985-06-01 6 2759 3470 1513 1372.25 1.1025688 1.0312443
1985-07-01 7 2931 3990 1378 1371.3333 1.0048614 1.0933088
1985-08-01 8 3641 4239 2083 1372.875 1.5172539 0.5285141
1985-09-01 9 2794 2855 1357 1387.2917 0.9781649 0.712012
1985-10-01 10 3070 2897 1536 1400.5417 1.0967185 0.8643433
1985-11-01 11 3576 3433 1526 1401.9583 1.0884774 0.9412657
1985-12-01 12 4106 3307 1376 1434.0833 0.9594979 1.051663
1986-01-01 1 2452 1914 779 1474.9583 0.5281505 1.1023182
1986-02-01 2 2206 2214 1005 1495.0417 0.6722221 1.3588641
1986-03-01 3 2488 2320 1193 1497.5 0.7966611 1.3253908
1986-04-01 4 2416 2714 1522 1491.125 1.0207058 1.046217
1986-05-01 5 2534 3633 1539 1502.125 1.0245486 0.9448588
1986-06-01 6 2521 3295 1546 1513.4583 1.0215015 1.0312443
1986-07-01 7 3093 4377 2116 1520.9583 1.3912281 1.0933088
1986-08-01 8 3903 4442 2326 1528.3333 1.5219193 0.5285141
1986-09-01 9 2907 2774 1596 1536.7083 1.0385836 0.712012
1986-10-01 10 3025 2840 1356 1552.9167 0.8731956 0.8643433
1986-11-01 11 3812 2828 1553 1570.75 0.9886997 0.9412657
1986-12-01 12 4209 3758 1613 1578.75 1.0216944 1.051663
1987-01-01 1 2138 1610 814 1567.0833 0.5194363 1.1023182
1987-02-01 2 2419 1968 1150 1573.4167 0.7308935 1.3588641
1987-03-01 3 2622 2248 1225 1613.2917 0.7593171 1.3253908
1987-04-01 4 2912 3262 1691 1652.9583 1.0230143 1.046217
1987-05-01 5 2708 3164 1759 1693.9583 1.0383963 0.9448588
1987-06-01 6 2798 2972 1754 1724.1667 1.017303 1.0312443
1987-07-01 7 3254 4041 2100 1747.125 1.2019747 1.0933088
1987-08-01 8 2895 3402 2062 1776.7917 1.1605187 0.5285141
1987-09-01 9 3263 2898 2012 1786.5417 1.1261982 0.712012
1987-10-01 10 3736 2555 1897 1796.5417 1.0559176 0.8643433
1987-11-01 11 4077 3056 1964 1825.7917 1.0756978 0.9412657
1987-12-01 12 4097 3717 2186 1875.375 1.1656335 1.051663
1988-01-01 1 2175 1755 966 1916.7917 0.5039671 1.1023182
1988-02-01 2 3138 2193 1549 1919.2083 0.8071036 1.3588641
1988-03-01 3 2823 2198 1538 1907.25 0.8063966 1.3253908
1988-04-01 4 2498 2777 1612 1895 0.8506596 1.046217
1988-05-01 5 2822 3076 2078 1876.0833 1.1076267 0.9448588
1988-06-01 6 2738 3389 2137 1870 1.1427807 1.0312443
1988-07-01 7 4137 4231 2907 1872.2083 1.5527118 1.0933088
1988-08-01 8 3515 3118 2249 1878.5417 1.1972053 0.5285141
1988-09-01 9 3785 2524 1883 1896.125 0.993078 0.712012
1988-10-01 10 3632 2280 1739 1907.5 0.9116645 0.8643433
1988-11-01 11 4504 2862 1828 1909.6667 0.9572351 0.9412657
1988-12-01 12 4451 3502 1868 1889.9167 0.9884034 1.051663
1989-01-01 1 2550 1558 1138 1868.5833 0.6090175 1.1023182
1989-02-01 2 2867 1940 1430 1873.25 0.7633792 1.3588641
1989-03-01 3 3458 2226 1809 1892.125 0.9560679 1.3253908
1989-04-01 4 2961 2676 1763 1916.5417 0.9198861 1.046217
1989-05-01 5 3163 3145 2200 1951.0833 1.1275787 0.9448588
1989-06-01 6 2880 3224 2067 1963.9167 1.0524886 1.0312443
1989-07-01 7 3331 4117 2503 1947.2917 1.285375 1.0933088
1989-08-01 8 3062 3446 2141 1933.875 1.1071036 0.5285141
1989-09-01 9 3534 2482 2103 1926.75 1.0914753 0.712012
1989-10-01 10 3622 2349 1972 1916.125 1.0291604 0.8643433
1989-11-01 11 4464 2986 2181 1908.1667 1.1429819 0.9412657
1989-12-01 12 5411 3163 2344 1904.8333 1.2305539 1.051663
1990-01-01 1 2564 1651 970 1911 0.5075877 1.1023182
1990-02-01 2 2820 1725 1199 1925.125 0.6228167 1.3588641
1990-03-01 3 3508 2622 1718 1925.4167 0.8922744 1.3253908
1990-04-01 4 3088 2316 1683 1919 0.8770193 1.046217
1990-05-01 5 3299 2976 2025 1915.1667 1.0573492 0.9448588
1990-06-01 6 2939 3263 2051 1914.2917 1.0714146 1.0312443
1990-07-01 7 3320 3951 2439 1935.25 1.2603023 1.0933088
1990-08-01 8 3418 2917 2353 1951.5 1.2057392 0.5285141
1990-09-01 9 3604 2380 2230 1941.4583 1.1486211 0.712012
1990-10-01 10 3495 2458 1852 1926.5 0.9613288 0.8643433
1990-11-01 11 4163 2883 2147 1924.9167 1.115373 0.9412657
1990-12-01 12 4882 2579 2286 1947.375 1.1738879 1.051663
1991-01-01 1 2211 1330 1007 1965 0.5124682 1.1023182
1991-02-01 2 3260 1686 1665 1969.8333 0.8452492 1.3588641
1991-03-01 3 2992 2457 1642 1970.2083 0.8334144 1.3253908
1991-04-01 4 2425 2514 1518 1963.25 0.7732077 1.046217
1991-05-01 5 2707 2834 1831 1954.2917 0.9369124 0.9448588
1991-06-01 6 3244 2757 2207 1958.0417 1.1271466 1.0312443
1991-07-01 7 3965 3425 2822 1952.8333 1.4450798 1.0933088
1991-08-01 8 3315 3006 2393 1954.4583 1.2243802 0.5285141
1991-09-01 9 3333 2369 2306 1984.0833 1.1622496 0.712012
1991-10-01 10 3583 2017 1785 2003.4583 0.8909594 0.8643433
1991-11-01 11 4021 2507 2047 2006.2917 1.0202903 0.9412657
1991-12-01 12 4904 3168 2171 2004.5417 1.0830406 1.051663
1992-01-01 1 2252 1545 1212 1998.0417 0.606594 1.1023182
1992-02-01 2 2952 1643 1335 1985.8333 0.6722619 1.3588641
1992-03-01 3 3573 2112 2011 1989.2917 1.0109126 1.3253908
1992-04-01 4 3048 2415 1860 2012.1667 0.9243767 1.046217
1992-05-01 5 3059 2862 1954 2049.4583 0.9534227 0.9448588
1992-06-01 6 2731 2822 2152 2059.125 1.0451041 1.0312443
1992-07-01 7 3563 3260 2835 2042.0833 1.3882881 1.0933088
1992-08-01 8 3092 2606 2224 2038.6667 1.0909091 0.5285141
1992-09-01 9 3478 2264 2182 2055.4583 1.0615637 0.712012
1992-10-01 10 3478 2250 1992 2084.5417 0.9556057 0.8643433
1992-11-01 11 4308 2545 2389 2101.375 1.1368747 0.9412657
1992-12-01 12 5029 2856 2724 2114.9167 1.287994 1.051663
1993-01-01 1 2075 1208 891 2170.25 0.4105518 1.1023182
1993-02-01 2 3264 1412 1247 2204.4167 0.5656825 1.3588641
1993-03-01 3 3308 1964 2017 2196.8333 0.9181397 1.3253908
1993-04-01 4 3688 2018 2257 2200.5417 1.0256566 1.046217
1993-05-01 5 3136 2329 2255 2192.0417 1.0287213 0.9448588
1993-06-01 6 2824 2660 2255 2190.4167 1.0294845 1.0312443
1993-07-01 7 3644 2923 3057 2216.7083 1.3790718 1.0933088
1993-08-01 8 4694 2626 3330 2244.4167 1.4836817 0.5285141
1993-09-01 9 2914 2132 1896 2260.3333 0.8388143 0.712012
1993-10-01 10 3686 1772 2096 2266.4583 0.9247909 0.8643433
1993-11-01 11 4358 2526 2374 2281.2083 1.0406765 0.9412657
1993-12-01 12 5587 2755 2535 2323.625 1.0909678 1.051663
1994-01-01 1 2265 1154 1041 2321.4583 0.448425 1.1023182
1994-02-01 2 3685 1568 1728 2324.7083 0.7433191 1.3588641
1994-03-01 3 3754 1965 2201 2361.0833 0.9321992 1.3253908
1994-04-01 4 3708 2659 2455 2375.3333 1.0335392 1.046217
1994-05-01 5 3210 2354 2204 2390.375 0.9220311 0.9448588
1994-06-01 6 3517 2592 2660 2402.5833 1.1071416 1.0312443
1994-07-01 7 3905 2714 3670 2409.4583 1.5231639 1.0933088
1994-08-01 8 3670 2294 2665 2421.0833 1.1007469 0.5285141
1994-09-01 9 4221 2416 2639 2438.625 1.0821672 0.712012
1994-10-01 10 4404 2016 2226 2461.2917 0.9044032 0.8643433
1994-11-01 11 5086 2799 2586 2504.25 1.0326445 0.9412657
1994-12-01 12 5725 2467 2684 2541.875 1.0559134 1.051663
1995-01-01 1 2367 1153 1185 2547.2992 0.4651986 1.1023182
1995-02-01 2 3819 1482 1749 2537.3409 0.6893043 1.3588641
1995-03-01 3 4067 1818 2459 2549.5278 0.9644923 1.3253908
1995-04-01 4 4022 2262 2618 2565.3403 1.0205274 1.046217
1995-05-01 5 3937 2612 2585 2555.5625 1.011519 0.9448588
1995-06-01 6 4365 2967 3310 2660.5 1.244127 1.0312443
1995-07-01 7 4290 3179 3923 2876.5 1.3638102 1.0933088
normalize
unadjuste d seasonal
d factors
1.097304 1.1023182
1.3526829 1.3588641
1.3193618 1.3253908
1.0414579 1.046217
0.9405608 0.9448588
1.0265533 1.0312443
1.0883355 1.0933088
0.52611 0.5285141
0.7087731 0.712012
0.8604115 0.8643433
0.936984 0.9412657
1.0468791 1.051663
11.945414 12
2012 550,000 Attendancemarks( Y)
2013 575,000 86 75
2014 625000 98 81
2015 640000 92 76
2016 677500 95 78
2017 709500 87 77
2018 741500 74 70.74144
2022 869500 82 73.84261
2020 805500 99 79.35968
2021 837500 78 72.60496
2022 869500 23 53.39793
2023 901500 Err:502
seasonal_ Reconstru
month month drywhite fortified red Red_4MM factor Irregular ction
1980-01-01 1 1954 2585 464
1980-02-01 2 2302 3368 675
1980-03-01 3 3054 3210 703
1980-04-01 4 2414 3111 887
1980-05-01 5 2226 3756 1139
1980-06-01 6 2725 4216 1077 966.25 1.031244 1.080848 1077
1980-07-01 7 2589 5225 1318 977.6667 1.093309 1.233053 1318
1980-08-01 8 3470 4426 1260 994.2917 0.528514 2.397729 1260
1980-09-01 9 2400 3932 1120 1008.833 0.712012 1.559234 1120
1980-10-01 10 3180 3816 963 1017.917 0.864343 1.09453 963
1980-11-01 11 4009 3661 996 1029.167 0.941266 1.028162 996
1980-12-01 12 3924 3795 960 1048.208 1.051663 0.870857 960
1981-01-01 1 2072 2285 530 1071.708 1.102318 0.448634 530
1981-02-01 2 2434 2934 883 1083.083 1.358864 0.599961 883
1981-03-01 3 2956 2985 894 1079.375 1.325391 0.624915 894
1981-04-01 4 2828 3646 1045 1078 1.046217 0.926565 1045
1981-05-01 5 2687 4198 1199 1082.792 0.944859 1.171945 1199
1981-06-01 6 2629 4935 1287 1087.667 1.031244 1.147417 1287
1981-07-01 7 3150 5618 1565 1077.917 1.093309 1.327964 1565
1981-08-01 8 4119 5454 1577 1063.833 0.528514 2.804797 1577
1981-09-01 9 3030 3624 1076 1057.375 0.712012 1.42921 1076
1981-10-01 10 3055 2898 918 1047.125 0.864343 1.01428 918
1981-11-01 11 3821 3802 1008 1030.292 0.941266 1.039413 1008
1981-12-01 12 4001 2369 1063 1014.292 1.051663 0.996538 1063
1982-01-01 1 2529 2369 544 995.4583 1.102318 0.495757 544
1982-02-01 2 2472 2511 635 984.5 1.358864 0.474659 635
1982-03-01 3 3134 3079 804 989.0417 1.325391 0.613335 804
1982-04-01 4 2789 3728 980 991.9167 1.046217 0.944342 980
1982-05-01 5 2758 4151 1018 989.4167 0.944859 1.088934 1018
1982-06-01 6 2993 4326 1064 990.375 1.031244 1.041791 1064
1982-07-01 7 3282 5054 1404 996.9583 1.093309 1.288093 1404
1982-08-01 8 3437 5138 1286 1001.75 0.528514 2.428986 1286
1982-09-01 9 2804 3310 1104 1002.792 0.712012 1.546219 1104
1982-10-01 10 3076 3508 999 1013.167 0.864343 1.140771 999
1982-11-01 11 3782 3790 996 1039.208 0.941266 1.018227 996
1982-12-01 12 3889 3446 1015 1059.583 1.051663 0.910866 1015
1983-01-01 1 2271 2127 615 1082 1.102318 0.515633 615
1983-02-01 2 2452 2523 722 1101.542 1.358864 0.482348 722
1983-03-01 3 3084 3017 832 1100.792 1.325391 0.570262 832
1983-04-01 4 2522 3265 977 1104.875 1.046217 0.8452 977
1983-05-01 5 2769 3822 1270 1119.75 0.944859 1.200372 1270
1983-06-01 6 3438 4027 1437 1131.333 1.031244 1.231699 1437
1983-07-01 7 2839 4420 1520 1139.333 1.093309 1.220253 1520
1983-08-01 8 3746 5255 1708 1150.667 0.528514 2.808547 1708
1983-09-01 9 2632 4009 1151 1163.625 0.712012 1.389233 1151
1983-10-01 10 2851 3074 934 1177.583 0.864343 0.917633 934
1983-11-01 11 3871 3465 1159 1178.458 0.941266 1.044857 1159
1983-12-01 12 3618 3718 1209 1181.208 1.051663 0.973247 1209
1984-01-01 1 2389 1954 699 1213.833 1.102318 0.52241 699
1984-02-01 2 2344 2604 830 1239.125 1.358864 0.492932 830
1984-03-01 3 2678 3626 996 1254.292 1.325391 0.599124 996
1984-04-01 4 2492 2836 1124 1271.5 1.046217 0.844945 1124
1984-05-01 5 2858 4042 1458 1301.708 0.944859 1.185433 1458
1984-06-01 6 2246 3584 1270 1332.083 1.031244 0.924508 1270
1984-07-01 7 2800 4225 1753 1343.625 1.093309 1.193331 1753
1984-08-01 8 3869 4523 2258 1357.583 0.528514 3.14703 2258
1984-09-01 9 3007 2892 1208 1367.958 0.712012 1.240243 1208
1984-10-01 10 3023 2876 1241 1374.667 0.864343 1.044451 1241
1984-11-01 11 3907 3420 1265 1388.125 0.941266 0.968166 1265
1984-12-01 12 4209 3159 1828 1382.625 1.051663 1.257173 1828
1985-01-01 1 2353 2101 809 1359.708 1.102318 0.539754 809
1985-02-01 2 2570 2181 997 1358.625 1.358864 0.540032 997
1985-03-01 3 2903 2724 1164 1377.125 1.325391 0.637728 1164
1985-04-01 4 2910 2954 1205 1400.292 1.046217 0.822521 1205
1985-05-01 5 3782 4092 1538 1392.333 0.944859 1.169085 1538
1985-06-01 6 2759 3470 1513 1372.25 1.031244 1.069164 1513
1985-07-01 7 2931 3990 1378 1371.333 1.093309 0.919101 1378
1985-08-01 8 3641 4239 2083 1372.875 0.528514 2.870792 2083
1985-09-01 9 2794 2855 1357 1387.292 0.712012 1.373804 1357
1985-10-01 10 3070 2897 1536 1400.542 0.864343 1.268846 1536
1985-11-01 11 3576 3433 1526 1401.958 0.941266 1.156398 1526
1985-12-01 12 4106 3307 1376 1434.083 1.051663 0.912363 1376
1986-01-01 1 2452 1914 779 1474.958 1.102318 0.479127 779
1986-02-01 2 2206 2214 1005 1495.042 1.358864 0.494694 1005
1986-03-01 3 2488 2320 1193 1497.5 1.325391 0.601076 1193
1986-04-01 4 2416 2714 1522 1491.125 1.046217 0.975616 1522
1986-05-01 5 2534 3633 1539 1502.125 0.944859 1.08434 1539
1986-06-01 6 2521 3295 1546 1513.458 1.031244 0.990552 1546
1986-07-01 7 3093 4377 2116 1520.958 1.093309 1.272493 2116
1986-08-01 8 3903 4442 2326 1528.333 0.528514 2.879619 2326
1986-09-01 9 2907 2774 1596 1536.708 0.712012 1.45866 1596
1986-10-01 10 3025 2840 1356 1552.917 0.864343 1.010242 1356
1986-11-01 11 3812 2828 1553 1570.75 0.941266 1.050394 1553
1986-12-01 12 4209 3758 1613 1578.75 1.051663 0.971504 1613
1987-01-01 1 2138 1610 814 1567.083 1.102318 0.471222 814
1987-02-01 2 2419 1968 1150 1573.417 1.358864 0.537871 1150
1987-03-01 3 2622 2248 1225 1613.292 1.325391 0.572901 1225
1987-04-01 4 2912 3262 1691 1652.958 1.046217 0.977822 1691
1987-05-01 5 2708 3164 1759 1693.958 0.944859 1.098996 1759
1987-06-01 6 2798 2972 1754 1724.167 1.031244 0.986481 1754
1987-07-01 7 3254 4041 2100 1747.125 1.093309 1.099392 2100
1987-08-01 8 2895 3402 2062 1776.792 0.528514 2.195814 2062
1987-09-01 9 3263 2898 2012 1786.542 0.712012 1.581712 2012
1987-10-01 10 3736 2555 1897 1796.542 0.864343 1.221641 1897
1987-11-01 11 4077 3056 1964 1825.792 0.941266 1.142821 1964
1987-12-01 12 4097 3717 2186 1875.375 1.051663 1.108372 2186
1988-01-01 1 2175 1755 966 1916.792 1.102318 0.457188 966
1988-02-01 2 3138 2193 1549 1919.208 1.358864 0.593955 1549
1988-03-01 3 2823 2198 1538 1907.25 1.325391 0.608422 1538
1988-04-01 4 2498 2777 1612 1895 1.046217 0.813081 1612
1988-05-01 5 2822 3076 2078 1876.083 0.944859 1.172267 2078
1988-06-01 6 2738 3389 2137 1870 1.031244 1.108157 2137
1988-07-01 7 4137 4231 2907 1872.208 1.093309 1.420195 2907
1988-08-01 8 3515 3118 2249 1878.542 0.528514 2.265228 2249
1988-09-01 9 3785 2524 1883 1896.125 0.712012 1.394749 1883
1988-10-01 10 3632 2280 1739 1907.5 0.864343 1.054748 1739
1988-11-01 11 4504 2862 1828 1909.667 0.941266 1.016966 1828
1988-12-01 12 4451 3502 1868 1889.917 1.051663 0.939848 1868
1989-01-01 1 2550 1558 1138 1868.583 1.102318 0.552488 1138
1989-02-01 2 2867 1940 1430 1873.25 1.358864 0.561777 1430
1989-03-01 3 3458 2226 1809 1892.125 1.325391 0.721348 1809
1989-04-01 4 2961 2676 1763 1916.542 1.046217 0.87925 1763
1989-05-01 5 3163 3145 2200 1951.083 0.944859 1.193383 2200
1989-06-01 6 2880 3224 2067 1963.917 1.031244 1.020601 2067
1989-07-01 7 3331 4117 2503 1947.292 1.093309 1.175674 2503
1989-08-01 8 3062 3446 2141 1933.875 0.528514 2.094747 2141
1989-09-01 9 3534 2482 2103 1926.75 0.712012 1.532945 2103
1989-10-01 10 3622 2349 1972 1916.125 0.864343 1.190685 1972
1989-11-01 11 4464 2986 2181 1908.167 0.941266 1.214303 2181
1989-12-01 12 5411 3163 2344 1904.833 1.051663 1.170103 2344
1990-01-01 1 2564 1651 970 1911 1.102318 0.460473 970
1990-02-01 2 2820 1725 1199 1925.125 1.358864 0.458336 1199
1990-03-01 3 3508 2622 1718 1925.417 1.325391 0.673216 1718
1990-04-01 4 3088 2316 1683 1919 1.046217 0.838277 1683
1990-05-01 5 3299 2976 2025 1915.167 0.944859 1.119055 2025
1990-06-01 6 2939 3263 2051 1914.292 1.031244 1.038953 2051
1990-07-01 7 3320 3951 2439 1935.25 1.093309 1.152741 2439
1990-08-01 8 3418 2917 2353 1951.5 0.528514 2.281375 2353
1990-09-01 9 3604 2380 2230 1941.458 0.712012 1.613205 2230
1990-10-01 10 3495 2458 1852 1926.5 0.864343 1.112207 1852
1990-11-01 11 4163 2883 2147 1924.917 0.941266 1.184971 2147
1990-12-01 12 4882 2579 2286 1947.375 1.051663 1.116221 2286
1991-01-01 1 2211 1330 1007 1965 1.102318 0.4649 1007
1991-02-01 2 3260 1686 1665 1969.833 1.358864 0.622026 1665
1991-03-01 3 2992 2457 1642 1970.208 1.325391 0.628807 1642
1991-04-01 4 2425 2514 1518 1963.25 1.046217 0.739051 1518
1991-05-01 5 2707 2834 1831 1954.292 0.944859 0.99159 1831
1991-06-01 6 3244 2757 2207 1958.042 1.031244 1.092997 2207
1991-07-01 7 3965 3425 2822 1952.833 1.093309 1.321749 2822
1991-08-01 8 3315 3006 2393 1954.458 0.528514 2.316646 2393
1991-09-01 9 3333 2369 2306 1984.083 0.712012 1.632346 2306
1991-10-01 10 3583 2017 1785 2003.458 0.864343 1.030793 1785
1991-11-01 11 4021 2507 2047 2006.292 0.941266 1.083956 2047
1991-12-01 12 4904 3168 2171 2004.542 1.051663 1.029836 2171
1992-01-01 1 2252 1545 1212 1998.042 1.102318 0.550289 1212
1992-02-01 2 2952 1643 1335 1985.833 1.358864 0.494723 1335
1992-03-01 3 3573 2112 2011 1989.292 1.325391 0.762728 2011
1992-04-01 4 3048 2415 1860 2012.167 1.046217 0.883542 1860
1992-05-01 5 3059 2862 1954 2049.458 0.944859 1.009064 1954
1992-06-01 6 2731 2822 2152 2059.125 1.031244 1.01344 2152
1992-07-01 7 3563 3260 2835 2042.083 1.093309 1.269804 2835
1992-08-01 8 3092 2606 2224 2038.667 0.528514 2.064106 2224
1992-09-01 9 3478 2264 2182 2055.458 0.712012 1.490935 2182
1992-10-01 10 3478 2250 1992 2084.542 0.864343 1.105586 1992
1992-11-01 11 4308 2545 2389 2101.375 0.941266 1.207815 2389
1992-12-01 12 5029 2856 2724 2114.917 1.051663 1.224721 2724
1993-01-01 1 2075 1208 891 2170.25 1.102318 0.372444 891
1993-02-01 2 3264 1412 1247 2204.417 1.358864 0.416291 1247
1993-03-01 3 3308 1964 2017 2196.833 1.325391 0.692731 2017
1993-04-01 4 3688 2018 2257 2200.542 1.046217 0.980348 2257
1993-05-01 5 3136 2329 2255 2192.042 0.944859 1.088757 2255
1993-06-01 6 2824 2660 2255 2190.417 1.031244 0.998294 2255
1993-07-01 7 3644 2923 3057 2216.708 1.093309 1.261375 3057
1993-08-01 8 4694 2626 3330 2244.417 0.528514 2.80727 3330
1993-09-01 9 2914 2132 1896 2260.333 0.712012 1.17809 1896
1993-10-01 10 3686 1772 2096 2266.458 0.864343 1.069935 2096
1993-11-01 11 4358 2526 2374 2281.208 0.941266 1.105614 2374
1993-12-01 12 5587 2755 2535 2323.625 1.051663 1.037374 2535
1994-01-01 1 2265 1154 1041 2321.458 1.102318 0.406802 1041
1994-02-01 2 3685 1568 1728 2324.708 1.358864 0.547015 1728
1994-03-01 3 3754 1965 2201 2361.083 1.325391 0.703339 2201
1994-04-01 4 3708 2659 2455 2375.333 1.046217 0.987882 2455
1994-05-01 5 3210 2354 2204 2390.375 0.944859 0.97584 2204
1994-06-01 6 3517 2592 2660 2402.583 1.031244 1.073598 2660
1994-07-01 7 3905 2714 3670 2409.458 1.093309 1.393169 3670
1994-08-01 8 3670 2294 2665 2421.083 0.528514 2.08272 2665
1994-09-01 9 4221 2416 2639 2438.625 0.712012 1.519872 2639
1994-10-01 10 4404 2016 2226 2461.292 0.864343 1.046347 2226
1994-11-01 11 5086 2799 2586 2504.25 0.941266 1.097081 2586
1994-12-01 12 5725 2467 2684 2541.875 1.051663 1.004042 2684
1995-01-01 1 2367 1153 1185 2547.299 1.102318 0.422018 1185
1995-02-01 2 3819 1482 1749 2537.341 1.358864 0.507265 1749
1995-03-01 3 4067 1818 2459 2549.528 1.325391 0.727704 2459
1995-04-01 4 4022 2262 2618 2565.34 1.046217 0.975445 2618
1995-05-01 5 3937 2612 2585 2555.563 0.944859 1.07055 2585
1995-06-01 6 4365 2967 3310 2660.5 1.031244 1.206433 3310
1995-07-01 7 4290 3179 3923 2876.5 1.093309 1.247415 3923
unadjuste
d normalize
month seasonals d sesonals
1 1.097304 1.102318
2 1.352683 1.358864 sale =f(tr*seasonal*irregular)
3 1.319362 1.325391
4 1.041458 1.046217
5 0.940561 0.944859
6 1.026553 1.031244
7 1.088335 1.093309
8 0.52611 0.528514
9 0.708773 0.712012
10 0.860412 0.864343
11 0.936984 0.941266
12 1.046879 1.051663
total 11.94541
debt equity total
proportion 0.2 0.8
cost% 0.12 0.12
select wacc value
WACC 0.12 data
forecast
what if analysis drop down
goal seek
by changing cell (in pop up) selected the number you w
ok
selected the number you want to change to balance
month Demand forecast Alpha(Smoothing parameter) 0.1
1980-01-01 23 23 MSE #VALUE! 23
1980-02-01 29 23 MAPE #VALUE!
1980-03-01 33 23.6
1980-04-01 40 24.54
1980-05-01 41 26.086
1980-06-01 43 27.5774
1980-07-01 49 29.11966
1980-08-01 ?? 31.10769
1980-09-01 1120 #VALUE!
1980-10-01 963 #VALUE!
1980-11-01 996 #VALUE!
1980-12-01 960 #VALUE!
1981-01-01 530 #VALUE!
1981-02-01 883 #VALUE!
1981-03-01 894 #VALUE!
1981-04-01 1045 #VALUE!
1981-05-01 1199 #VALUE!
1981-06-01 1287 #VALUE!
1981-07-01 1565 #VALUE!
1981-08-01 1577 #VALUE!
1981-09-01 1076 #VALUE!
1981-10-01 918 #VALUE!
1981-11-01 1008 #VALUE!
1981-12-01 1063 #VALUE!
1982-01-01 544 #VALUE!
1982-02-01 635 #VALUE!
1982-03-01 804 #VALUE!
1982-04-01 980 #VALUE!
1982-05-01 1018 #VALUE!
1982-06-01 1064 #VALUE!
1982-07-01 1404 #VALUE!
1982-08-01 1286 #VALUE!
1982-09-01 1104 #VALUE!
1982-10-01 999 #VALUE!
1982-11-01 996 #VALUE!
1982-12-01 1015 #VALUE!
1983-01-01 615 #VALUE!
1983-02-01 722 #VALUE!
1983-03-01 832 #VALUE!
1983-04-01 977 #VALUE!
1983-05-01 1270 #VALUE!
1983-06-01 1437 #VALUE!
1983-07-01 1520 #VALUE!
1983-08-01 1708 #VALUE!
1983-09-01 1151 #VALUE!
1983-10-01 934 #VALUE!
1983-11-01 1159 #VALUE!
1983-12-01 1209 #VALUE!
1984-01-01 699 #VALUE!
1984-02-01 830 #VALUE!
1984-03-01 996 #VALUE!
1984-04-01 1124 #VALUE!
1984-05-01 1458 #VALUE!
1984-06-01 1270 #VALUE!
1984-07-01 1753 #VALUE!
1984-08-01 2258 #VALUE!
1984-09-01 1208 #VALUE!
1984-10-01 1241 #VALUE!
1984-11-01 1265 #VALUE!
1984-12-01 1828 #VALUE!
1985-01-01 809 #VALUE!
1985-02-01 997 #VALUE!
1985-03-01 1164 #VALUE!
1985-04-01 1205 #VALUE!
1985-05-01 1538 #VALUE!
1985-06-01 1513 #VALUE!
1985-07-01 1378 #VALUE!
1985-08-01 2083 #VALUE!
1985-09-01 1357 #VALUE!
1985-10-01 1536 #VALUE!
1985-11-01 1526 #VALUE!
1985-12-01 1376 #VALUE!
1986-01-01 779 #VALUE!
1986-02-01 1005 #VALUE!
1986-03-01 1193 #VALUE!
1986-04-01 1522 #VALUE!
1986-05-01 1539 #VALUE!
1986-06-01 1546 #VALUE!
1986-07-01 2116 #VALUE!
1986-08-01 2326 #VALUE!
1986-09-01 1596 #VALUE!
1986-10-01 1356 #VALUE!
1986-11-01 1553 #VALUE!
1986-12-01 1613 #VALUE!
1987-01-01 814 #VALUE!
1987-02-01 1150 #VALUE!
1987-03-01 1225 #VALUE!
1987-04-01 1691 #VALUE!
1987-05-01 1759 #VALUE!
1987-06-01 1754 #VALUE!
1987-07-01 2100 #VALUE!
1987-08-01 2062 #VALUE!
1987-09-01 2012 #VALUE!
1987-10-01 1897 #VALUE!
1987-11-01 1964 #VALUE!
1987-12-01 2186 #VALUE!
1988-01-01 966 #VALUE!
1988-02-01 1549 #VALUE!
1988-03-01 1538 #VALUE!
1988-04-01 1612 #VALUE!
1988-05-01 2078 #VALUE!
1988-06-01 2137 #VALUE!
1988-07-01 2907 #VALUE!
1988-08-01 2249 #VALUE!
1988-09-01 1883 #VALUE!
1988-10-01 1739 #VALUE!
1988-11-01 1828 #VALUE!
1988-12-01 1868 #VALUE!
1989-01-01 1138 #VALUE!
1989-02-01 1430 #VALUE!
1989-03-01 1809 #VALUE!
1989-04-01 1763 #VALUE!
1989-05-01 2200 #VALUE!
1989-06-01 2067 #VALUE!
1989-07-01 2503 #VALUE!
1989-08-01 2141 #VALUE!
1989-09-01 2103 #VALUE!
1989-10-01 1972 #VALUE!
1989-11-01 2181 #VALUE!
1989-12-01 2344 #VALUE!
1990-01-01 970 #VALUE!
1990-02-01 1199 #VALUE!
1990-03-01 1718 #VALUE!
1990-04-01 1683 #VALUE!
1990-05-01 2025 #VALUE!
1990-06-01 2051 #VALUE!
1990-07-01 2439 #VALUE!
1990-08-01 2353 #VALUE!
1990-09-01 2230 #VALUE!
1990-10-01 1852 #VALUE!
1990-11-01 2147 #VALUE!
1990-12-01 2286 #VALUE!
1991-01-01 1007 #VALUE!
1991-02-01 1665 #VALUE!
1991-03-01 1642 #VALUE!
1991-04-01 1518 #VALUE!
1991-05-01 1831 #VALUE!
1991-06-01 2207 #VALUE!
1991-07-01 2822 #VALUE!
1991-08-01 2393 #VALUE!
1991-09-01 2306 #VALUE!
1991-10-01 1785 #VALUE!
1991-11-01 2047 #VALUE!
1991-12-01 2171 #VALUE!
1992-01-01 1212 #VALUE!
1992-02-01 1335 #VALUE!
1992-03-01 2011 #VALUE!
1992-04-01 1860 #VALUE!
1992-05-01 1954 #VALUE!
1992-06-01 2152 #VALUE!
1992-07-01 2835 #VALUE!
1992-08-01 2224 #VALUE!
1992-09-01 2182 #VALUE!
1992-10-01 1992 #VALUE!
1992-11-01 2389 #VALUE!
1992-12-01 2724 #VALUE!
1993-01-01 891 #VALUE!
1993-02-01 1247 #VALUE!
1993-03-01 2017 #VALUE!
1993-04-01 2257 #VALUE!
1993-05-01 2255 #VALUE!
1993-06-01 2255 #VALUE!
1993-07-01 3057 #VALUE!
1993-08-01 3330 #VALUE!
1993-09-01 1896 #VALUE!
1993-10-01 2096 #VALUE!
1993-11-01 2374 #VALUE!
1993-12-01 2535 #VALUE!
1994-01-01 1041 #VALUE!
1994-02-01 1728 #VALUE!
1994-03-01 2201 #VALUE!
1994-04-01 2455 #VALUE!
1994-05-01 2204 #VALUE!
1994-06-01 2660 #VALUE!
1994-07-01 3670 #VALUE!
1994-08-01 2665 #VALUE!
1994-09-01 2639 #VALUE!
1994-10-01 2226 #VALUE!
1994-11-01 2586 #VALUE!
1994-12-01 2684 #VALUE!
1995-01-01 1185 #VALUE!
1995-02-01 1749 #VALUE!
1995-03-01 2459 #VALUE!
1995-04-01 2618 #VALUE!
1995-05-01 2585 #VALUE!
1995-06-01 3310 #VALUE!
1995-07-01 3923 #VALUE!
#VALUE!
29 33 40 41 43 49
month red Forecast(red) Lower Confidence Bound(red)
1980-01-01 464
1980-02-01 675
1980-03-01 703
1980-04-01 887 5000
1980-05-01 1139 4500
1980-06-01 1077 4000
1980-07-01 1318 3500
1980-08-01 1260 3000
1980-09-01 1120 2500
1980-10-01 963
2000
1980-11-01 996
1500
1980-12-01 960
1000
1981-01-01 530
1981-02-01 883 500
1981-03-01 894 0
1980-01-01 1981-12-01 1983-11-01 1985-10-01 1987-09-01 19
1981-04-01 1045
1981-05-01 1199 red
1981-06-01 1287 Lower Confidence Bound(re
1981-07-01 1565
1981-08-01 1577
1981-09-01 1076
1981-10-01 918
1981-11-01 1008
1981-12-01 1063
1982-01-01 544
1982-02-01 635
1982-03-01 804
1982-04-01 980
1982-05-01 1018
1982-06-01 1064
1982-07-01 1404
1982-08-01 1286
1982-09-01 1104
1982-10-01 999
1982-11-01 996
1982-12-01 1015
1983-01-01 615
1983-02-01 722
1983-03-01 832
1983-04-01 977
1983-05-01 1270
1983-06-01 1437
1983-07-01 1520
1983-08-01 1708
1983-09-01 1151
1983-10-01 934
1983-11-01 1159
1983-12-01 1209
1984-01-01 699
1984-02-01 830
1984-03-01 996
1984-04-01 1124
1984-05-01 1458
1984-06-01 1270
1984-07-01 1753
1984-08-01 2258
1984-09-01 1208
1984-10-01 1241
1984-11-01 1265
1984-12-01 1828
1985-01-01 809
1985-02-01 997
1985-03-01 1164
1985-04-01 1205
1985-05-01 1538
1985-06-01 1513
1985-07-01 1378
1985-08-01 2083
1985-09-01 1357
1985-10-01 1536
1985-11-01 1526
1985-12-01 1376
1986-01-01 779
1986-02-01 1005
1986-03-01 1193
1986-04-01 1522
1986-05-01 1539
1986-06-01 1546
1986-07-01 2116
1986-08-01 2326
1986-09-01 1596
1986-10-01 1356
1986-11-01 1553
1986-12-01 1613
1987-01-01 814
1987-02-01 1150
1987-03-01 1225
1987-04-01 1691
1987-05-01 1759
1987-06-01 1754
1987-07-01 2100
1987-08-01 2062
1987-09-01 2012
1987-10-01 1897
1987-11-01 1964
1987-12-01 2186
1988-01-01 966
1988-02-01 1549
1988-03-01 1538
1988-04-01 1612
1988-05-01 2078
1988-06-01 2137
1988-07-01 2907
1988-08-01 2249
1988-09-01 1883
1988-10-01 1739
1988-11-01 1828
1988-12-01 1868
1989-01-01 1138
1989-02-01 1430
1989-03-01 1809
1989-04-01 1763
1989-05-01 2200
1989-06-01 2067
1989-07-01 2503
1989-08-01 2141
1989-09-01 2103
1989-10-01 1972
1989-11-01 2181
1989-12-01 2344
1990-01-01 970
1990-02-01 1199
1990-03-01 1718
1990-04-01 1683
1990-05-01 2025
1990-06-01 2051
1990-07-01 2439
1990-08-01 2353
1990-09-01 2230
1990-10-01 1852
1990-11-01 2147
1990-12-01 2286
1991-01-01 1007
1991-02-01 1665
1991-03-01 1642
1991-04-01 1518
1991-05-01 1831
1991-06-01 2207
1991-07-01 2822
1991-08-01 2393
1991-09-01 2306
1991-10-01 1785
1991-11-01 2047
1991-12-01 2171
1992-01-01 1212
1992-02-01 1335
1992-03-01 2011
1992-04-01 1860
1992-05-01 1954
1992-06-01 2152
1992-07-01 2835
1992-08-01 2224
1992-09-01 2182
1992-10-01 1992
1992-11-01 2389
1992-12-01 2724
1993-01-01 891
1993-02-01 1247
1993-03-01 2017
1993-04-01 2257
1993-05-01 2255
1993-06-01 2255
1993-07-01 3057
1993-08-01 3330
1993-09-01 1896
1993-10-01 2096
1993-11-01 2374
1993-12-01 2535
1994-01-01 1041
1994-02-01 1728
1994-03-01 2201
1994-04-01 2455
1994-05-01 2204
1994-06-01 2660
1994-07-01 3670
1994-08-01 2665
1994-09-01 2639
1994-10-01 2226
1994-11-01 2586
1994-12-01 2684
1995-01-01 1185
1995-02-01 1749
1995-03-01 2459
1995-04-01 2618
1995-05-01 2585
1995-06-01 3310
1995-07-01 3923 3923 3923.00
1995-08-01 3115.093613704 2778.06
1995-09-01 2722.783313974 2399.47
1995-10-01 2503.033418333 2172.59
1995-11-01 2833.734374435 2529.29
1995-12-01 2986.11048505 2670.34
1996-01-01 1520.954298576 1199.17
1996-02-01 2062.915543857 1709.21
1996-03-01 2674.353015489 2338.39
1996-04-01 2814.144437928 2507.22
1996-05-01 2758.511672947 2441.78
1996-06-01 3217.869124247 2924.44
1996-07-01 3782.953501658 3469.77
1996-08-01 3238.676947037 2903.12
1996-09-01 2846.366647307 2490.87
1996-10-01 2626.616751667 2304.01
1996-11-01 2957.317707769 2611.13
1996-12-01 3109.693818383 2748.50
1997-01-01 1644.537631909 1254.27
1997-02-01 2186.498877191 1795.08
1997-03-01 2797.936348823 2435.29
1997-04-01 2937.727771261 2565.67
1997-05-01 2882.09500628 2554.51
1997-06-01 3341.45245758 2975.83
1997-07-01 3906.536834991 3536.79
1997-08-01 3362.260280371 2935.27
1997-09-01 2969.94998064 2576.31
1997-10-01 2750.200085 2333.33
1997-11-01 3080.901041102 2674.03
1997-12-01 3233.277151716 2816.39
1998-01-01 1768.120965242 1383.78
1998-02-01 2310.082210524 1913.81
1998-03-01 2921.519682156 2525.70
1998-04-01 3061.311104594 2641.17
1998-05-01 3005.6783396135 2581.69
1998-06-01 3465.035790914 3048.94
1998-07-01 4030.120168324 3619.84
1998-08-01 3485.843613704 3064.72
1998-09-01 3093.533313974 2645.06
1998-10-01 2873.783418333 2438.88
1998-11-01 3204.484374435 2772.15
1998-12-01 3356.86048505 2936.01
1999-01-01 1891.704298576 1438.21
1999-02-01 2433.665543857 1996.66
1999-03-01 3045.103015489 2636.21
1999-04-01 3184.894437928 2775.90
1999-05-01 3129.261672947 2676.53
1999-06-01 3588.619124247 3139.05
Upper Confidence Bound(red)
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1980-01-01 1981-12-01 1983-11-01 1985-10-01 1987-09-01 1989-08-01 1991-07-01 1993-06-01 1995-05-01 1997-04-01 1999-03-01
red Forecast(red)
Lower Confidence Bound(red) Upper Confidence Bound(red)
3923.00
3445.37
3064.88
2853.48
3170.83
3301.64
1840.33
2405.46
3000.28
3137.10
3073.33
3534.19
4095.43
3616.30
3221.82
3000.52
3294.53
3449.96
2020.98
2573.06
3163.92
3285.38
3270.95
3719.55
4260.97
3737.63
3348.32
3120.36
3500.90
3620.67
2132.77
2698.34
3293.24
3468.61
3433.57
3889.78
4460.63
3912.79
3519.12
3301.52
3667.88
3810.79
2338.36
2912.10
3512.22
3602.44
3584.46
3998.49
month fortified Level Trend LES_forecast Alpha 0.9503678
1980-01-01 2585 2585 0 #N/A Beta 0.1
1980-02-01 3368 3329.138 74.413797 3403.5518 MSE 4299.2467
1980-03-01 3210 3219.6064 56.019261 3275.6257 MAPE 2%
1980-04-01 3111 3119.1707 40.373768 3159.5445
1980-05-01 3756 3726.3966 97.058976 3823.4556
1980-06-01 4216 4196.5171 134.36513 4330.8823
1980-07-01 5225 5180.6229 219.3392 5399.9621
1980-08-01 4426 4474.3399 126.77698 4601.1169
1980-09-01 3932 3965.2098 63.186265 4028.396
1980-10-01 3816 3826.5417 43.000831 3869.5425
1980-11-01 3661 3671.3504 23.181622 3694.5321
1980-12-01 3795 3790.0136 32.729772 3822.7433
1981-01-01 2285 2361.3216 -113.4124 2247.9092
1981-02-01 2934 2899.9478 -48.20854 2851.7392
1981-03-01 2985 2978.386 -35.54387 2942.8421
1981-04-01 3646 3611.1007 31.281991 3642.3827
1981-05-01 4198 4170.4235 84.086069 4254.5095
1981-06-01 4935 4901.2257 148.75769 5049.9834
1981-07-01 5618 5589.8081 202.74015 5792.5482
1981-08-01 5454 5470.8029 170.56562 5641.3685
1981-09-01 3624 3724.1265 -21.15858 3702.9679
1981-10-01 2898 2937.9524 -97.66014 2840.2922
1981-11-01 3802 3754.2683 -6.26253 3748.0058
1981-12-01 2369 2437.4431 -137.3188 2300.1243
1982-01-01 2369 2365.5815 -130.7731 2234.8085
1982-02-01 2511 2497.292 -104.5247 2392.7673
1982-03-01 3079 3044.9407 -39.30737 3005.6334
1982-04-01 3728 3692.1473 29.344023 3721.4914
1982-05-01 4151 4129.6825 70.16314 4199.8457
1982-06-01 4326 4319.7387 82.152441 4401.8911
1982-07-01 5054 5021.6344 144.12677 5165.7612
1982-08-01 5138 5139.3778 141.48844 5280.8663
1982-09-01 3310 3407.8185 -45.81634 3362.0021
1982-10-01 3508 3500.7538 -31.94118 3468.8126
1982-11-01 3790 3774.0588 -1.416564 3772.6422
1982-12-01 3446 3462.212 -32.45959 3429.7524
1983-01-01 2127 2191.6585 -156.269 2035.3895
1983-02-01 2523 2498.7988 -109.928 2388.8708
1983-03-01 3017 2985.8245 -50.23267 2935.5919
1983-04-01 3265 3248.6507 -18.92678 3229.724
1983-05-01 3822 3792.604 37.361225 3829.9652
1983-06-01 4027 4017.2207 56.086773 4073.3075
1983-07-01 4420 4402.7929 89.035311 4491.8282
1983-08-01 5255 5217.1221 161.5647 5378.6868
1983-09-01 4009 4076.9806 31.394082 4108.3747
1983-10-01 3074 3125.3383 -66.90955 3058.4288
1983-11-01 3465 3444.821 -28.27033 3416.5506
1983-12-01 3718 3703.0384 0.378442 3703.4168
1984-01-01 1954 2040.8275 -165.8805 1874.947
1984-02-01 2604 2567.8155 -96.59364 2471.2218
1984-03-01 3626 3568.6858 13.152751 3581.8385
1984-04-01 2836 2873.0176 -57.72934 2815.2883
1984-05-01 4042 3981.1156 58.853388 4039.969
1984-06-01 3584 3606.6308 15.519568 3622.1503
1984-07-01 4225 4195.0792 72.812458 4267.8917
1984-08-01 4523 4510.3384 97.05713 4607.3955
1984-09-01 2892 2977.1389 -65.96853 2911.1704
1984-10-01 2876 2877.7456 -69.31101 2808.4346
1984-11-01 3420 3389.6466 -11.1898 3378.4568
1984-12-01 3159 3169.8921 -32.04628 3137.8459
1985-01-01 2101 2152.461 -130.5848 2021.8762
1985-02-01 2181 2173.1023 -115.4622 2057.6402
1985-03-01 2724 2690.9271 -52.13346 2638.7936
1985-04-01 2954 2938.3556 -22.17726 2916.1783
1985-05-01 4092 4033.6414 89.569038 4123.2104
1985-06-01 3470 3502.4203 27.490028 3529.9103
1985-07-01 3990 3967.1647 71.215469 4038.3802
1985-08-01 4239 4229.0428 90.281729 4319.3245
1985-09-01 2855 2927.6777 -48.88295 2878.7947
1985-10-01 2897 2896.0964 -47.15278 2848.9436
1985-11-01 3433 3404.012 8.3540489 3412.366
1985-12-01 3307 3312.2296 -1.659599 3310.57
1986-01-01 1914 1983.3149 -134.3851 1848.9298
1986-02-01 2214 2195.8808 -99.69001 2096.1907
1986-03-01 2320 2308.8918 -78.4199 2230.472
1986-04-01 2714 2690.0014 -32.46695 2657.5345
1986-05-01 3633 3584.5855 60.238149 3644.8236
1986-06-01 3295 3312.3625 26.99204 3339.3546
1986-07-01 4377 4325.4993 125.60652 4451.1059
1986-08-01 4442 4442.4519 124.74113 4567.1931
1986-09-01 2774 2863 -45.67816 2817.322
1986-10-01 2840 2838.8744 -43.52292 2795.3515
1986-11-01 2828 2826.3796 -40.42011 2785.9595
1986-12-01 3758 3709.7555 51.959485 3761.7149
1987-01-01 1610 1716.7944 -152.5326 1564.2618
1987-02-01 1968 1947.9616 -114.1626 1833.799
1987-03-01 2248 2227.4423 -74.79827 2152.644
1987-04-01 3262 3206.9402 30.631352 3237.5715
1987-05-01 3164 3167.6515 23.63935 3191.2909
1987-06-01 2972 2982.8839 2.7986524 2985.6825
1987-07-01 4041 3988.6222 103.09262 4091.7149
1987-08-01 3402 3436.2321 37.544344 3473.7764
1987-09-01 2898 2926.5771 -17.17559 2909.4015
1987-10-01 2555 2572.5897 -50.85677 2521.733
1987-11-01 3056 3029.4831 -0.081749 3029.4014
1987-12-01 3717 3682.8729 65.265407 3748.1384
1988-01-01 1755 1853.9239 -124.156 1729.7679
1988-02-01 2193 2170.0088 -80.13195 2089.8768
1988-03-01 2198 2192.6336 -69.85627 2122.7773
1988-04-01 2777 2744.5295 -7.681056 2736.8484
1988-05-01 3076 3059.1672 24.550818 3083.718
1988-06-01 3389 3373.8482 53.563838 3427.412
1988-07-01 4231 4191.1161 129.93425 4321.0504
1988-08-01 3118 3177.7101 15.600219 3193.3103
1988-09-01 2524 2557.2194 -48.00887 2509.2105
1988-10-01 2280 2291.3762 -69.7923 2221.5839
1988-11-01 2862 2830.2147 -8.92922 2821.2855
1988-12-01 3502 3468.2146 55.763692 3523.9783
1989-01-01 1558 1655.5759 -131.0766 1524.4993
1989-02-01 1940 1919.3778 -91.58871 1827.7891
1989-03-01 2226 2206.2359 -53.74402 2152.4919
1989-04-01 2676 2650.0171 -3.991499 2646.0256
1989-05-01 3145 3120.2348 43.429417 3163.6642
1989-06-01 3224 3221.0054 49.163537 3270.1689
1989-07-01 4117 4074.9699 129.64363 4204.6135
1989-08-01 3446 3483.6517 57.547448 3541.1991
1989-09-01 2482 2534.5704 -43.11542 2491.455
1989-10-01 2349 2356.0704 -56.65389 2299.4165
1989-11-01 2986 2951.9233 8.5967991 2960.5201
1989-12-01 3163 3152.9505 27.839833 3180.7903
1990-01-01 1651 1726.9269 -117.5465 1609.3804
1990-02-01 1725 1719.2615 -106.5584 1612.7031
1990-03-01 2622 2571.9063 -10.63807 2561.2683
1990-04-01 2316 2328.1732 -33.94758 2294.2256
1990-05-01 2976 2942.162 30.84606 2973.0081
1990-06-01 3263 3248.6071 58.405957 3307.013
1990-07-01 3951 3919.0375 119.60841 4038.6459
1990-08-01 2917 2972.6698 13.010794 2985.6806
1990-09-01 2380 2410.0613 -44.55114 2365.5101
1990-10-01 2458 2453.4095 -35.7612 2417.6483
1990-11-01 2883 2859.9036 8.4643256 2868.3679
1990-12-01 2579 2593.362 -19.03627 2574.3257
1991-01-01 1330 1391.7587 -137.293 1254.4657
1991-02-01 1686 1664.582 -96.28134 1568.3007
1991-03-01 2457 2412.8919 -11.82222 2401.0697
1991-04-01 2514 2508.395 -1.089682 2507.3053
1991-05-01 2834 2817.7854 29.958326 2847.7437
1991-06-01 2757 2761.5038 21.334334 2782.8381
1991-07-01 3425 3393.1281 82.363326 3475.4914
1991-08-01 3006 3029.3019 37.744377 3067.0463
1991-09-01 2369 2403.6456 -28.59569 2375.0499
1991-10-01 2017 2034.7708 -62.6236 1972.1472
1991-11-01 2507 2480.4541 -11.79292 2468.6611
1991-12-01 3168 3133.2903 54.669995 3187.9602
1992-01-01 1545 1626.5438 -101.4717 1525.0721
1992-02-01 1643 1637.147 -90.26417 1546.8828
1992-03-01 2112 2083.952 -36.55725 2047.3947
1992-04-01 2415 2396.7549 -1.62123 2395.1337
1992-05-01 2862 2838.8284 42.748238 2881.5766
1992-06-01 2822 2824.9569 37.086268 2862.0432
1992-07-01 3260 3240.2485 74.906801 3315.1553
1992-08-01 2606 2641.197 7.5109649 2648.7079
1992-09-01 2264 2283.0939 -29.05044 2254.0435
1992-10-01 2250 2250.2007 -29.43472 2220.766
1992-11-01 2545 2528.9075 1.3794421 2530.287
1992-12-01 2856 2839.8341 32.334157 2872.1683
1993-01-01 1208 1290.5964 -125.823 1164.7733
1993-02-01 1412 1399.7296 -102.3274 1297.4022
1993-03-01 1964 1930.9153 -38.9761 1891.9392
1993-04-01 2018 2011.7433 -26.99569 1984.7476
1993-05-01 2329 2311.914 5.7209497 2317.6349
1993-06-01 2660 2643.0077 38.258222 2681.2659
1993-07-01 2923 2911.0022 61.231853 2972.2341
1993-08-01 2626 2643.1844 28.326885 2671.5113
1993-09-01 2132 2158.7771 -22.94653 2135.8306
1993-10-01 1772 1790.0577 -57.52382 1732.5339
1993-11-01 2526 2486.6185 17.884645 2504.5032
1993-12-01 2755 2742.5673 41.691058 2784.2583
1994-01-01 1154 1234.9134 -113.2434 1121.6699
1994-02-01 1568 1545.8476 -70.82567 1475.022
1994-03-01 1965 1940.6813 -24.25974 1916.4216
1994-04-01 2659 2622.1442 46.312526 2668.4567
1994-05-01 2354 2369.6072 16.427574 2386.0348
1994-06-01 2592 2581.7775 36.001847 2617.7793
1994-07-01 2714 2709.2244 45.146349 2754.3707
1994-08-01 2294 2316.8492 1.3942009 2318.2434
1994-09-01 2416 2411.1481 10.684671 2421.8328
1994-10-01 2016 2036.1424 -27.88437 2008.258
1994-11-01 2799 2759.7537 47.2652 2807.0189
1994-12-01 2467 2483.8759 14.950898 2498.8268
1995-01-01 1153 1219.7964 -112.9521 1106.8442
1995-02-01 1482 1463.3802 -77.29855 1386.0816
1995-03-01 1818 1796.5629 -36.25042 1760.3125
1995-04-01 2262 2237.1001 11.428343 2248.5285
1995-05-01 2612 2593.9601 45.971505 2639.9316
1995-06-01 2967 2950.7669 77.055032 3027.8219
1995-07-01 3179 3171.4967 91.422511 3262.9192
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.576677
R Square 0.332556
Adjusted R Square 0.328948
Standard Error 720.0311
Observations 187
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 47788619 47788619 92.17687 5.763E-18
Residual 185 95912284 518444.8
Total 186 1.44E+08
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 12823.9 1028.504 12.4685 2.705E-26 10794.8 14853.01 10794.8 14853.01
month -0.307681 0.032047 -9.600879 5.763E-18 -0.370906 -0.244456 -0.370906 -0.244456
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation Predicted fortified

Residuals
1 3833.156 -1248.156
2 3823.618 -455.6175
3 3814.695 -604.6948
4 3805.157 -694.1567
5 3795.926 -39.92622
6 3786.388 429.6119
7 3777.158 1447.842
8 3767.62 658.3804
9 3758.081 173.9185
10 3748.851 67.14897
11 3739.313 -78.31291
12 3730.082 64.91752
13 3720.544 -1435.544
14 3711.006 -777.0063
15 3702.391 -717.3912
16 3692.853 -46.85308
17 3683.623 514.3774
18 3674.085 1260.915
19 3664.854 1953.146
20 3655.316 1798.684
21 3645.778 -21.77788
22 3636.547 -738.5475
23 3627.009 174.9907
24 3617.779 -1248.779
25 3608.241 -1239.241
26 3598.703 -1087.703
27 3590.088 -511.0876
28 3580.55 147.4505
29 3571.319 579.6809
30 3561.781 764.219
31 3552.551 1501.449
32 3543.012 1594.988
33 3533.474 -223.4743
34 3524.244 -16.24388
35 3514.706 275.2942
36 3505.475 -59.47534
37 3495.937 -1368.937
38 3486.399 -963.3991
39 3477.784 -460.784
40 3468.246 -203.2459
41 3459.016 362.9845
42 3449.477 577.5226
43 3440.247 979.753
44 3430.709 1824.291
45 3421.171 587.8293
46 3411.94 -337.9403
47 3402.402 62.5978
48 3393.172 324.8282
49 3383.634 -1429.634
50 3374.096 -770.0955
51 3365.173 260.8272
52 3355.635 -519.6347
53 3346.404 695.5957
54 3336.866 247.1339
55 3327.636 897.3643
56 3318.098 1204.902
57 3308.559 -416.5595
58 3299.329 -423.3291
59 3289.791 130.2091
60 3280.561 -121.5605
61 3271.022 -1170.022
62 3261.484 -1080.484
63 3252.869 -528.8692
64 3243.331 -289.3311
65 3234.101 857.8993
66 3224.563 245.4374
67 3215.332 774.6679
68 3205.794 1033.206
69 3196.256 -341.2559
70 3187.025 -290.0255
71 3177.487 255.5126
72 3168.257 138.7431
73 3158.719 -1244.719
74 3149.181 -935.1807
75 3140.566 -820.5657
76 3131.028 -417.0275
77 3121.797 511.2029
78 3112.259 182.741
79 3103.029 1273.971
80 3093.49 1348.51
81 3083.952 -309.9523
82 3074.722 -234.7219
83 3065.184 -237.1838
84 3055.953 702.0466
85 3046.415 -1436.415
86 3036.877 -1068.877
87 3028.262 -780.2621
88 3018.724 243.276
89 3009.494 154.5065
90 2999.955 -27.95543
91 2990.725 1050.275
92 2981.187 420.8131
93 2971.649 -73.64877
94 2962.418 -407.4183
95 2952.88 103.1198
96 2943.65 773.3502
97 2934.112 -1179.112
98 2924.574 -731.5736
99 2915.651 -717.6508
100 2906.113 -129.1127
101 2896.882 179.1177
102 2887.344 501.6558
103 2878.114 1352.886
104 2868.576 249.4244
105 2859.038 -335.0375
106 2849.807 -569.8071
107 2840.269 21.73102
108 2831.039 670.9615
109 2821.5 -1263.5
110 2811.962 -871.9623
111 2803.347 -577.3473
112 2793.809 -117.8091
113 2784.579 360.4213
114 2775.041 448.9594
115 2765.81 1351.19
116 2756.272 689.7279
117 2746.734 -264.7339
118 2737.504 -388.5035
119 2727.965 258.0346
120 2718.735 444.265
121 2709.197 -1058.197
122 2699.659 -974.6588
123 2691.044 -69.04368
124 2681.506 -365.5056
125 2672.275 303.7249
126 2662.737 600.263
127 2653.507 1297.493
128 2643.968 273.0315
129 2634.43 -254.4304
130 2625.2 -167.1999
131 2615.662 267.3382
132 2606.431 -27.4314
133 2596.893 -1266.893
134 2587.355 -901.3552
135 2578.74 -121.7401
136 2569.202 -55.202
137 2559.972 274.0284
138 2550.433 206.5665
139 2541.203 883.797
140 2531.665 474.3351
141 2522.127 -153.1268
142 2512.896 -495.8964
143 2503.358 3.641737
144 2494.128 673.8722
145 2484.59 -939.5897
146 2475.052 -832.0516
147 2466.129 -354.1289
148 2456.591 -41.59075
149 2447.36 414.6397
150 2437.822 384.1778
151 2428.592 831.4082
152 2419.054 186.9463
153 2409.516 -145.5156
154 2400.285 -150.2851
155 2390.747 154.253
156 2381.517 474.4834
157 2371.978 -1163.978
158 2362.44 -950.4404
159 2353.825 -389.8253
160 2344.287 -326.2872
161 2335.057 -6.056746
162 2325.519 334.4814
163 2316.288 606.7118
164 2306.75 319.2499
165 2297.212 -165.212
166 2287.982 -515.9815
167 2278.443 247.5566
168 2269.213 485.787
169 2259.675 -1105.675
170 2250.137 -682.1368
171 2241.522 -276.5217
172 2231.984 427.0164
173 2222.753 131.2468
174 2213.215 378.7849
175 2203.985 510.0154
176 2194.447 99.55348
177 2184.908 231.0916
178 2175.678 -159.678
179 2166.14 632.8601
180 2156.909 310.0906
181 2147.371 -994.3713
182 2137.833 -655.8332
183 2129.218 -311.2181
184 2119.68 142.32
185 2110.45 501.5504
186 2100.911 866.0885
187 2091.681 1087.319
month Residual Plot
2500
2000
1500
1000
Residuals 500
0
1976-08-28
-500 1982-02-18 1987-08-11 1993-01-31 1998-07-24
-1000
-1500
-2000
Upper 95.0% month
1998-07-24
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Multiple R 0.719504
R Square 0.517685
Observations 187
ANOVA
Regression 11 74391853 6762896 17.07579 1.276E-22
Residual 175 69309051 396051.7
Total 186 1.44E+08
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 3183.933 162.4914 19.59448 5.387E-46 2863.238 3504.628 2863.238 3504.628
m1 -1415.246 226.1784 -6.25721 2.92E-09 -1861.634 -968.8573 -1861.634 -968.8573
m2 -1061.933 226.1784 -4.695113 5.361E-06 -1508.322 -615.5448 -1508.322 -615.5448
m3 -648.2458 226.1784 -2.866082 0.004666 -1094.634 -201.8573 -1094.634 -201.8573
m4 -361.8708 226.1784 -1.599935 0.111417 -808.2594 84.51773 -808.2594 84.51773
m5 131.4417 226.1784 0.581141 0.561893 -314.9469 577.8302 -314.9469 577.8302
m6 222.2542 226.1784 0.98265 0.327136 -224.1344 668.6427 -224.1344 668.6427
m7 862.9417 226.1784 3.815314 0.000188 416.5531 1309.33 416.5531 1309.33
m8 608.8667 229.7975 2.649579 0.008797 155.3354 1062.398 155.3354 1062.398
m9 -326.5333 229.7975 -1.420961 0.157107 -780.0646 126.9979 -780.0646 126.9979
m10 -543.5333 229.7975 -2.365271 0.019112 -997.0646 -90.0021 -997.0646 -90.0021
m11 -79.73333 229.7975 -0.346972 0.729029 -533.2646 373.7979 -533.2646 373.7979
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
ObservationPredicted fortified
Residuals
1 1768.687 816.3125
2 2122 1246
3 2535.687 674.3125
4 2822.063 288.9375
5 3315.375 440.625
6 3406.188 809.8125
7 4046.875 1178.125
8 3792.8 633.2
9 2857.4 1074.6
10 2640.4 1175.6
11 3104.2 556.8
12 3183.933 611.0667
13 1768.687 516.3125
14 2122 812
15 2535.687 449.3125
16 2822.063 823.9375
17 3315.375 882.625
18 3406.188 1528.813
19 4046.875 1571.125
20 3792.8 1661.2
21 2857.4 766.6
22 2640.4 257.6
23 3104.2 697.8
24 3183.933 -814.9333
25 1768.687 600.3125
26 2122 389
27 2535.687 543.3125
28 2822.063 905.9375
29 3315.375 835.625
30 3406.188 919.8125
31 4046.875 1007.125
32 3792.8 1345.2
33 2857.4 452.6
34 2640.4 867.6
35 3104.2 685.8
36 3183.933 262.0667
37 1768.687 358.3125
38 2122 401
39 2535.687 481.3125
40 2822.063 442.9375
41 3315.375 506.625
42 3406.188 620.8125
43 4046.875 373.125
44 3792.8 1462.2
45 2857.4 1151.6
46 2640.4 433.6
47 3104.2 360.8
48 3183.933 534.0667
49 1768.687 185.3125
50 2122 482
51 2535.687 1090.313
52 2822.063 13.9375
53 3315.375 726.625
54 3406.188 177.8125
55 4046.875 178.125
56 3792.8 730.2
57 2857.4 34.6
58 2640.4 235.6
59 3104.2 315.8
60 3183.933 -24.93333
61 1768.687 332.3125
62 2122 59
63 2535.687 188.3125
64 2822.063 131.9375
65 3315.375 776.625
66 3406.188 63.8125
67 4046.875 -56.875
68 3792.8 446.2
69 2857.4 -2.4
70 2640.4 256.6
71 3104.2 328.8
72 3183.933 123.0667
73 1768.687 145.3125
74 2122 92
75 2535.687 -215.6875
76 2822.063 -108.0625
77 3315.375 317.625
78 3406.188 -111.1875
79 4046.875 330.125
80 3792.8 649.2
81 2857.4 -83.4
82 2640.4 199.6
83 3104.2 -276.2
84 3183.933 574.0667
85 1768.687 -158.6875
86 2122 -154
87 2535.687 -287.6875
88 2822.063 439.9375
89 3315.375 -151.375
90 3406.188 -434.1875
91 4046.875 -5.875
92 3792.8 -390.8
93 2857.4 40.6
94 2640.4 -85.4
95 3104.2 -48.2
96 3183.933 533.0667
97 1768.687 -13.6875
98 2122 71
99 2535.687 -337.6875
100 2822.063 -45.0625
101 3315.375 -239.375
102 3406.188 -17.1875
103 4046.875 184.125
104 3792.8 -674.8
105 2857.4 -333.4
106 2640.4 -360.4
107 3104.2 -242.2
108 3183.933 318.0667
109 1768.687 -210.6875
110 2122 -182
111 2535.687 -309.6875
112 2822.063 -146.0625
113 3315.375 -170.375
114 3406.188 -182.1875
115 4046.875 70.125
116 3792.8 -346.8
117 2857.4 -375.4
118 2640.4 -291.4
119 3104.2 -118.2
120 3183.933 -20.93333
121 1768.687 -117.6875
122 2122 -397
123 2535.687 86.3125
124 2822.063 -506.0625
125 3315.375 -339.375
126 3406.188 -143.1875
127 4046.875 -95.875
128 3792.8 -875.8
129 2857.4 -477.4
130 2640.4 -182.4
131 3104.2 -221.2
132 3183.933 -604.9333
133 1768.687 -438.6875
134 2122 -436
135 2535.687 -78.6875
136 2822.063 -308.0625
137 3315.375 -481.375
138 3406.188 -649.1875
139 4046.875 -621.875
140 3792.8 -786.8
141 2857.4 -488.4
142 2640.4 -623.4
143 3104.2 -597.2
144 3183.933 -15.93333
145 1768.687 -223.6875
146 2122 -479
147 2535.687 -423.6875
148 2822.063 -407.0625
149 3315.375 -453.375
150 3406.188 -584.1875
151 4046.875 -786.875
152 3792.8 -1186.8
153 2857.4 -593.4
154 2640.4 -390.4
155 3104.2 -559.2
156 3183.933 -327.9333
157 1768.687 -560.6875
158 2122 -710
159 2535.687 -571.6875
160 2822.063 -804.0625
161 3315.375 -986.375
162 3406.188 -746.1875
163 4046.875 -1123.875
164 3792.8 -1166.8
165 2857.4 -725.4
166 2640.4 -868.4
167 3104.2 -578.2
168 3183.933 -428.9333
169 1768.687 -614.6875
170 2122 -554
171 2535.687 -570.6875
172 2822.063 -163.0625
173 3315.375 -961.375
174 3406.188 -814.1875
175 4046.875 -1332.875
176 3792.8 -1498.8
177 2857.4 -441.4
178 2640.4 -624.4
179 3104.2 -305.2
180 3183.933 -716.9333
181 1768.687 -615.6875
182 2122 -640
183 2535.687 -717.6875
184 2822.063 -560.0625
185 3315.375 -703.375
186 3406.188 -439.1875
187 4046.875 -867.875
m1 Residual Plot
2000
1000
m2 Residual Plot
Residuals
2000
0 m30.8Residual Plot
-1000 0 0.2
1000 0.4 0.6 1 1.2
Residuals
2000
-2000 0 m40.8Residual Plot
-1000 0 Residuals 0.2
1000
m1
0.4 0.6 1 1.2
2000
-1000 0 0.2
1000 0.4 0.6 1 1.2
Residuals
m2
2000
-2000 0
m60.8Residual Plot
-1000 0 0.2
1000 0.4 0.6 1 1.2
Residuals
m3
2000
-1000 0 0.2
1000 0.4 0.6 1 1.2
Residuals
Upper 95.0% m4 2000
-2000 0
m80.8Residual Pl
-1000 0 0.2
1000 0.4 0.6 1 1.2
Residuals
m5
2000
-2000 0
m9 Resi
-1000 0 0.2
1000 0.4 0.6 0.8
Residuals
m6
2000
-2000 0
m1
-1000 0 0.2
1000 0.4 0.6
Residuals
m7
0 2000
-2000
-1000 0 0.2
1000 0.4
Residuals
m8
-2000 0
-1000 0
-2000
l Plot
esidual
1
Plot
1.2
m80.8Residual
.6 1
Plot
1.2
0.4 0.6
m9 Residual Plot
0.8 1 1.2
2000
0.2
1000 0.4 0.6
m10 Residual Plot
0.8 1 1.2
m7
2000
0
m11 Residual Plot
-1000 0 0.2
1000 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Residuals
m8
0 2000
-2000
-1000 0 0.2
1000 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Residuals
m9
-2000 0
-1000 0 0.2
m10
0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
-2000
m11
month fortified m1 m2 m3 m4 m5 m6 m7
1980-01-01 2585 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1980-02-01 3368 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1980-03-01 3210 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
1980-04-01 3111 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
1980-05-01 3756 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1980-06-01 4216 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
1980-07-01 5225 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
1980-08-01 4426 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1980-09-01 3932 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1980-10-01 3816 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1980-11-01 3661 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1980-12-01 3795 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1981-01-01 2285 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1981-02-01 2934 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1981-03-01 2985 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
1981-04-01 3646 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
1981-05-01 4198 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1981-06-01 4935 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
1981-07-01 5618 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
1981-08-01 5454 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1981-09-01 3624 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1981-10-01 2898 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1981-11-01 3802 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1981-12-01 2369 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1982-01-01 2369 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1982-02-01 2511 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1982-03-01 3079 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
1982-04-01 3728 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
1982-05-01 4151 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1982-06-01 4326 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
1982-07-01 5054 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
1982-08-01 5138 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1982-09-01 3310 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1982-10-01 3508 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1982-11-01 3790 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1982-12-01 3446 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1983-01-01 2127 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1983-02-01 2523 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1983-03-01 3017 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
1983-04-01 3265 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
1983-05-01 3822 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1983-06-01 4027 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
1983-07-01 4420 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
1983-08-01 5255 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1983-09-01 4009 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1983-10-01 3074 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1983-11-01 3465 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1983-12-01 3718 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1984-01-01 1954 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1984-02-01 2604 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1984-03-01 3626 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
1984-04-01 2836 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
1984-05-01 4042 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1984-06-01 3584 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
1984-07-01 4225 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
1984-08-01 4523 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1984-09-01 2892 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1984-10-01 2876 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1984-11-01 3420 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1984-12-01 3159 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1985-01-01 2101 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1985-02-01 2181 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1985-03-01 2724 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
1985-04-01 2954 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
1985-05-01 4092 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1985-06-01 3470 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
1985-07-01 3990 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
1985-08-01 4239 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1985-09-01 2855 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1985-10-01 2897 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1985-11-01 3433 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1985-12-01 3307 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1986-01-01 1914 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1986-02-01 2214 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1986-03-01 2320 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
1986-04-01 2714 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
1986-05-01 3633 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1986-06-01 3295 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
1986-07-01 4377 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
1986-08-01 4442 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1986-09-01 2774 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1986-10-01 2840 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1986-11-01 2828 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1986-12-01 3758 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1987-01-01 1610 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1987-02-01 1968 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1987-03-01 2248 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
1987-04-01 3262 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
1987-05-01 3164 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1987-06-01 2972 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
1987-07-01 4041 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
1987-08-01 3402 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1987-09-01 2898 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1987-10-01 2555 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1987-11-01 3056 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1987-12-01 3717 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1988-01-01 1755 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1988-02-01 2193 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1988-03-01 2198 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
1988-04-01 2777 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
1988-05-01 3076 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1988-06-01 3389 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
1988-07-01 4231 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
1988-08-01 3118 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1988-09-01 2524 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1988-10-01 2280 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1988-11-01 2862 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1988-12-01 3502 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1989-01-01 1558 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1989-02-01 1940 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1989-03-01 2226 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
1989-04-01 2676 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
1989-05-01 3145 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1989-06-01 3224 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
1989-07-01 4117 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
1989-08-01 3446 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1989-09-01 2482 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1989-10-01 2349 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1989-11-01 2986 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1989-12-01 3163 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1990-01-01 1651 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1990-02-01 1725 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1990-03-01 2622 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
1990-04-01 2316 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
1990-05-01 2976 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1990-06-01 3263 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
1990-07-01 3951 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
1990-08-01 2917 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1990-09-01 2380 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1990-10-01 2458 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1990-11-01 2883 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1990-12-01 2579 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991-01-01 1330 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991-02-01 1686 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1991-03-01 2457 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
1991-04-01 2514 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
1991-05-01 2834 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1991-06-01 2757 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
1991-07-01 3425 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
1991-08-01 3006 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991-09-01 2369 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991-10-01 2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991-11-01 2507 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991-12-01 3168 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1992-01-01 1545 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1992-02-01 1643 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1992-03-01 2112 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
1992-04-01 2415 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
1992-05-01 2862 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1992-06-01 2822 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
1992-07-01 3260 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
1992-08-01 2606 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1992-09-01 2264 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1992-10-01 2250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1992-11-01 2545 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1992-12-01 2856 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1993-01-01 1208 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1993-02-01 1412 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1993-03-01 1964 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
1993-04-01 2018 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
1993-05-01 2329 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1993-06-01 2660 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
1993-07-01 2923 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
1993-08-01 2626 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1993-09-01 2132 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1993-10-01 1772 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1993-11-01 2526 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1993-12-01 2755 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1994-01-01 1154 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1994-02-01 1568 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1994-03-01 1965 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
1994-04-01 2659 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
1994-05-01 2354 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1994-06-01 2592 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
1994-07-01 2714 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
1994-08-01 2294 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1994-09-01 2416 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1994-10-01 2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1994-11-01 2799 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1994-12-01 2467 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1995-01-01 1153 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1995-02-01 1482 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1995-03-01 1818 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
1995-04-01 2262 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
1995-05-01 2612 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1995-06-01 2967 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
1995-07-01 3179 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
m8 m9 m10 m11
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
month fortified Forecast(fortified) Lower Confidence Bound(fortified)
1980-01-01 2585
1980-02-01 3368
1980-03-01 3210
1980-04-01 3111
1980-05-01 3756
1980-06-01 4216
1980-07-01 5225
1980-08-01 4426
1980-09-01 3932
1980-10-01 3816
1980-11-01 3661
1980-12-01 3795
1981-01-01 2285
1981-02-01 2934
6000
1981-03-01 2985
1981-04-01 3646
5000
1981-05-01 4198
1981-06-01 4935
4000
1981-07-01 5618
1981-08-01 5454
3000
1981-09-01 3624
1981-10-01 2898
2000
1981-11-01 3802
1981-12-01 2369
1000
1982-01-01 2369
1982-02-01 2511
0
1982-03-01 3079
1980-01-01 1981-02-01 1982-03-01 1983-04-01 1984-05-01 1985-06-01 19
1982-04-01 3728
1982-05-01 4151 fortified Fo
1982-06-01 4326
1982-07-01 5054
1982-08-01 5138
1982-09-01 3310
1982-10-01 3508
1982-11-01 3790
1982-12-01 3446
1983-01-01 2127
1983-02-01 2523
1983-03-01 3017
1983-04-01 3265
1983-05-01 3822
1983-06-01 4027
1983-07-01 4420
1983-08-01 5255
1983-09-01 4009
1983-10-01 3074
1983-11-01 3465
1983-12-01 3718
1984-01-01 1954
1984-02-01 2604
1984-03-01 3626
1984-04-01 2836
1984-05-01 4042
1984-06-01 3584
1984-07-01 4225
1984-08-01 4523
1984-09-01 2892
1984-10-01 2876
1984-11-01 3420
1984-12-01 3159
1985-01-01 2101
1985-02-01 2181
1985-03-01 2724
1985-04-01 2954
1985-05-01 4092
1985-06-01 3470
1985-07-01 3990
1985-08-01 4239
1985-09-01 2855
1985-10-01 2897
1985-11-01 3433
1985-12-01 3307
1986-01-01 1914
1986-02-01 2214
1986-03-01 2320
1986-04-01 2714
1986-05-01 3633
1986-06-01 3295
1986-07-01 4377
1986-08-01 4442
1986-09-01 2774
1986-10-01 2840
1986-11-01 2828
1986-12-01 3758
1987-01-01 1610
1987-02-01 1968
1987-03-01 2248
1987-04-01 3262
1987-05-01 3164
1987-06-01 2972
1987-07-01 4041
1987-08-01 3402
1987-09-01 2898
1987-10-01 2555
1987-11-01 3056
1987-12-01 3717
1988-01-01 1755
1988-02-01 2193
1988-03-01 2198
1988-04-01 2777
1988-05-01 3076
1988-06-01 3389
1988-07-01 4231
1988-08-01 3118
1988-09-01 2524
1988-10-01 2280
1988-11-01 2862
1988-12-01 3502
1989-01-01 1558
1989-02-01 1940
1989-03-01 2226
1989-04-01 2676
1989-05-01 3145
1989-06-01 3224
1989-07-01 4117
1989-08-01 3446
1989-09-01 2482
1989-10-01 2349
1989-11-01 2986
1989-12-01 3163
1990-01-01 1651
1990-02-01 1725
1990-03-01 2622
1990-04-01 2316
1990-05-01 2976
1990-06-01 3263
1990-07-01 3951
1990-08-01 2917
1990-09-01 2380
1990-10-01 2458
1990-11-01 2883
1990-12-01 2579
1991-01-01 1330
1991-02-01 1686
1991-03-01 2457
1991-04-01 2514
1991-05-01 2834
1991-06-01 2757
1991-07-01 3425
1991-08-01 3006
1991-09-01 2369
1991-10-01 2017
1991-11-01 2507
1991-12-01 3168
1992-01-01 1545
1992-02-01 1643
1992-03-01 2112
1992-04-01 2415
1992-05-01 2862
1992-06-01 2822
1992-07-01 3260
1992-08-01 2606
1992-09-01 2264
1992-10-01 2250
1992-11-01 2545
1992-12-01 2856
1993-01-01 1208
1993-02-01 1412
1993-03-01 1964
1993-04-01 2018
1993-05-01 2329
1993-06-01 2660
1993-07-01 2923
1993-08-01 2626
1993-09-01 2132
1993-10-01 1772
1993-11-01 2526
1993-12-01 2755
1994-01-01 1154
1994-02-01 1568
1994-03-01 1965
1994-04-01 2659
1994-05-01 2354
1994-06-01 2592
1994-07-01 2714
1994-08-01 2294
1994-09-01 2416
1994-10-01 2016
1994-11-01 2799
1994-12-01 2467
1995-01-01 1153
1995-02-01 1482
1995-03-01 1818
1995-04-01 2262
1995-05-01 2612
1995-06-01 2967
1995-07-01 3179 3179 3179.00
1995-08-01 2436.40443711784 1939.08
1995-09-01 2236.7555311553 1706.10
1995-10-01 1918.81962159128 1431.92
1995-11-01 2585.09500087787 2041.74
1995-12-01 2567.36043652666 2071.60
1996-01-01 1109.92546688108 587.92
1996-02-01 1423.92606814016 887.68
1996-03-01 1834.10820774347 1304.40
1996-04-01 2253.98847196254 1774.47
1996-05-01 2442.58792567204 1968.32
1996-06-01 2709.77499459168 2205.35
1996-07-01 2797.14819342072 2260.90
1996-08-01 2365.6359992278 1793.14
1996-09-01 2165.98709326526 1634.01
1996-10-01 1848.05118370124 1309.06
1996-11-01 2514.32656298783 1935.70
1996-12-01 2496.59199863662 1916.55
1997-01-01 1039.15702899105 446.35
1997-02-01 1353.15763025012 805.90
1997-03-01 1763.33976985343 1222.17
1997-04-01 2183.2200340725 1670.85
1997-05-01 2371.819487782 1847.82
1997-06-01 2639.00655670164 2108.04
1997-07-01 2726.37975553068 2166.04
1997-08-01 2294.86756133776 1696.73
1997-09-01 2095.21865537522 1496.54
1997-10-01 1777.2827458112 1195.50
1997-11-01 2443.55812509779 1796.95
1997-12-01 2425.82356074659 1855.02
1998-01-01 968.388591101007 348.50
1998-02-01 1282.38919236009 671.69
1998-03-01 1692.5713319634 1085.43
1998-04-01 2112.45159618246 1515.02
1998-05-01 2301.05104989197 1685.28
1998-06-01 2568.23811881161 1908.94
1998-07-01 2655.61131764064 2002.55
1998-08-01 2224.09912344772 1531.43
1998-09-01 2024.45021748518 1356.79
1998-10-01 1706.51430792116 972.10
1998-11-01 2372.78968720776 1709.14
1998-12-01 2355.05512285655 1670.58
1999-01-01 897.620153210968 222.00
1999-02-01 1211.62075447005 542.38
1999-03-01 1621.80289407336 909.46
1999-04-01 2041.68315829242 1375.15
1999-05-01 2230.28261200193 1562.09
1999-06-01 2497.46968092157 1844.09
1999-07-01 2584.8428797506 1891.26
1999-08-01 2153.33068555768 1412.06
1999-09-01 1953.68177959514 1217.70
1999-10-01 1635.74587003112 888.01
1999-11-01 2302.02124931772 1518.98
1999-12-01 2284.28668496651 1505.59
2000-01-01 826.85171532093 148.93
2000-01-31 1130.72326492678 334.77
Upper Confidence Bound(fortified) Statistic Value
Alpha 0.00
Beta 0.00
Gamma 0.50
MASE 0.31
SMAPE 0.08
MAE 183.79
RMSE 244.47
01 1982-03-01 1983-04-01 1984-05-01 1985-06-01 1986-07-01 1987-08-01 1988-09-01 1989-10-01 1990-11-01 1991-12-01 1993-01-01 1994-02-01 1995-03-01 199
fortified Forecast(fortified) Lower Confidence Bound(fortified) Upper Confidence Bound(fortified)

3179.00
2959.62
2739.52
2440.65
3089.17
3122.63
1561.94
1939.18
2357.96
2740.28
2933.46
3214.80
3333.21
2908.23
2665.72
2386.16
3073.16
3001.07
1592.96
1879.00
2286.28
2735.67
2866.98
3233.44
3284.07
2918.35
2707.75
2364.28
3094.74
2997.26
1560.54
1921.29
2328.02
2716.84
2975.94
3189.94
3287.38
2921.77
2718.72
2347.32
3106.00
3042.26
1606.09
2009.52
2313.22
2699.52
2884.33
3141.55
3256.79
2920.92
2662.56
2430.54
3074.30
3042.50
1577.55
1875.44
1993-01-01 1994-02-01 1995-03-01 1996-04-01 1997-05-01 1998-06-01 1999-07-01
er Confidence Bound(fortified)
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Multiple R 0.576512228428
R Square 0.332366349527
Adjusted R Square0.328757518984
Observations 187
ANOVA
Regression 1 47761345 47761345 92.09808 5.918E-18
Residual 185 95939559 518592.2
Total 186 1.44E+08
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Intercept 3842.341038468 105.7466 36.33537 3.804E-86 3633.717 4050.965 3633.717
time -9.36208750674 0.975545 -9.596774 5.918E-18 -11.28671 -7.437464 -11.28671
Upper 95.0%
4050.965
-7.437464
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Multiple R 0.78070774549
R Square 0.60950458386
Observations 187
ANOVA
Regression 3 87586359.465 29195453.16 95.211821 3.6457123E-37
Residual 183 56114544.16 306636.8533
Total 186 143700903.63
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 12683814.7651 1710175.6464 7.416673715 4.335E-12 9309617.83776
month -434.442655144 58.586222576 -7.415440628 4.366E-12 -550.03397035
time 13217.2391879 1783.1072236 7.412475825 4.442E-12 9699.14738972
lag1 0.41044933892 0.0533670982 7.691055963 8.697E-13 0.30515541827
Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
16058012 9309618 16058012
-318.8513 -550.034 -318.8513
16735.33 9699.147 16735.33
0.515743 0.305155 0.515743
month time lag1 fortified
1980-01-01 1 0.00 2585 0.645146
1980-02-01 2 2585.00 3368
1980-03-01 3 3368.00 3210
1980-04-01 4 3210.00 3111
1980-05-01 5 3111.00 3756
1980-06-01 6 3756.00 4216
1980-07-01 7 4216.00 5225
1980-08-01 8 5225.00 4426
1980-09-01 9 4426.00 3932
1980-10-01 10 3932.00 3816
1980-11-01 11 3816.00 3661
1980-12-01 12 3661.00 3795
1981-01-01 13 3795.00 2285
1981-02-01 14 2285.00 2934
1981-03-01 15 2934.00 2985
1981-04-01 16 2985.00 3646
1981-05-01 17 3646.00 4198
1981-06-01 18 4198.00 4935
1981-07-01 19 4935.00 5618
1981-08-01 20 5618.00 5454
1981-09-01 21 5454.00 3624
1981-10-01 22 3624.00 2898
1981-11-01 23 2898.00 3802
1981-12-01 24 3802.00 2369
1982-01-01 25 2369.00 2369
1982-02-01 26 2369.00 2511
1982-03-01 27 2511.00 3079
1982-04-01 28 3079.00 3728
1982-05-01 29 3728.00 4151
1982-06-01 30 4151.00 4326
1982-07-01 31 4326.00 5054
1982-08-01 32 5054.00 5138
1982-09-01 33 5138.00 3310
1982-10-01 34 3310.00 3508
1982-11-01 35 3508.00 3790
1982-12-01 36 3790.00 3446
1983-01-01 37 3446.00 2127
1983-02-01 38 2127.00 2523
1983-03-01 39 2523.00 3017
1983-04-01 40 3017.00 3265
1983-05-01 41 3265.00 3822
1983-06-01 42 3822.00 4027
1983-07-01 43 4027.00 4420
1983-08-01 44 4420.00 5255
1983-09-01 45 5255.00 4009
1983-10-01 46 4009.00 3074
1983-11-01 47 3074.00 3465
1983-12-01 48 3465.00 3718
1984-01-01 49 3718.00 1954
1984-02-01 50 1954.00 2604
1984-03-01 51 2604.00 3626
1984-04-01 52 3626.00 2836
1984-05-01 53 2836.00 4042
1984-06-01 54 4042.00 3584
1984-07-01 55 3584.00 4225
1984-08-01 56 4225.00 4523
1984-09-01 57 4523.00 2892
1984-10-01 58 2892.00 2876
1984-11-01 59 2876.00 3420
1984-12-01 60 3420.00 3159
1985-01-01 61 3159.00 2101
1985-02-01 62 2101.00 2181
1985-03-01 63 2181.00 2724
1985-04-01 64 2724.00 2954
1985-05-01 65 2954.00 4092
1985-06-01 66 4092.00 3470
1985-07-01 67 3470.00 3990
1985-08-01 68 3990.00 4239
1985-09-01 69 4239.00 2855
1985-10-01 70 2855.00 2897
1985-11-01 71 2897.00 3433
1985-12-01 72 3433.00 3307
1986-01-01 73 3307.00 1914
1986-02-01 74 1914.00 2214
1986-03-01 75 2214.00 2320
1986-04-01 76 2320.00 2714
1986-05-01 77 2714.00 3633
1986-06-01 78 3633.00 3295
1986-07-01 79 3295.00 4377
1986-08-01 80 4377.00 4442
1986-09-01 81 4442.00 2774
1986-10-01 82 2774.00 2840
1986-11-01 83 2840.00 2828
1986-12-01 84 2828.00 3758
1987-01-01 85 3758.00 1610
1987-02-01 86 1610.00 1968
1987-03-01 87 1968.00 2248
1987-04-01 88 2248.00 3262
1987-05-01 89 3262.00 3164
1987-06-01 90 3164.00 2972
1987-07-01 91 2972.00 4041
1987-08-01 92 4041.00 3402
1987-09-01 93 3402.00 2898
1987-10-01 94 2898.00 2555
1987-11-01 95 2555.00 3056
1987-12-01 96 3056.00 3717
1988-01-01 97 3717.00 1755
1988-02-01 98 1755.00 2193
1988-03-01 99 2193.00 2198
1988-04-01 100 2198.00 2777
1988-05-01 101 2777.00 3076
1988-06-01 102 3076.00 3389
1988-07-01 103 3389.00 4231
1988-08-01 104 4231.00 3118
1988-09-01 105 3118.00 2524
1988-10-01 106 2524.00 2280
1988-11-01 107 2280.00 2862
1988-12-01 108 2862.00 3502
1989-01-01 109 3502.00 1558
1989-02-01 110 1558.00 1940
1989-03-01 111 1940.00 2226
1989-04-01 112 2226.00 2676
1989-05-01 113 2676.00 3145
1989-06-01 114 3145.00 3224
1989-07-01 115 3224.00 4117
1989-08-01 116 4117.00 3446
1989-09-01 117 3446.00 2482
1989-10-01 118 2482.00 2349
1989-11-01 119 2349.00 2986
1989-12-01 120 2986.00 3163
1990-01-01 121 3163.00 1651
1990-02-01 122 1651.00 1725
1990-03-01 123 1725.00 2622
1990-04-01 124 2622.00 2316
1990-05-01 125 2316.00 2976
1990-06-01 126 2976.00 3263
1990-07-01 127 3263.00 3951
1990-08-01 128 3951.00 2917
1990-09-01 129 2917.00 2380
1990-10-01 130 2380.00 2458
1990-11-01 131 2458.00 2883
1990-12-01 132 2883.00 2579
1991-01-01 133 2579.00 1330
1991-02-01 134 1330.00 1686
1991-03-01 135 1686.00 2457
1991-04-01 136 2457.00 2514
1991-05-01 137 2514.00 2834
1991-06-01 138 2834.00 2757
1991-07-01 139 2757.00 3425
1991-08-01 140 3425.00 3006
1991-09-01 141 3006.00 2369
1991-10-01 142 2369.00 2017
1991-11-01 143 2017.00 2507
1991-12-01 144 2507.00 3168
1992-01-01 145 3168.00 1545
1992-02-01 146 1545.00 1643
1992-03-01 147 1643.00 2112
1992-04-01 148 2112.00 2415
1992-05-01 149 2415.00 2862
1992-06-01 150 2862.00 2822
1992-07-01 151 2822.00 3260
1992-08-01 152 3260.00 2606
1992-09-01 153 2606.00 2264
1992-10-01 154 2264.00 2250
1992-11-01 155 2250.00 2545
1992-12-01 156 2545.00 2856
1993-01-01 157 2856.00 1208
1993-02-01 158 1208.00 1412
1993-03-01 159 1412.00 1964
1993-04-01 160 1964.00 2018
1993-05-01 161 2018.00 2329
1993-06-01 162 2329.00 2660
1993-07-01 163 2660.00 2923
1993-08-01 164 2923.00 2626
1993-09-01 165 2626.00 2132
1993-10-01 166 2132.00 1772
1993-11-01 167 1772.00 2526
1993-12-01 168 2526.00 2755
1994-01-01 169 2755.00 1154
1994-02-01 170 1154.00 1568
1994-03-01 171 1568.00 1965
1994-04-01 172 1965.00 2659
1994-05-01 173 2659.00 2354
1994-06-01 174 2354.00 2592
1994-07-01 175 2592.00 2714
1994-08-01 176 2714.00 2294
1994-09-01 177 2294.00 2416
1994-10-01 178 2416.00 2016
1994-11-01 179 2016.00 2799
1994-12-01 180 2799.00 2467
1995-01-01 181 2467.00 1153
1995-02-01 182 1153.00 1482
1995-03-01 183 1482.00 1818
1995-04-01 184 1818.00 2262
1995-05-01 185 2262.00 2612
1995-06-01 186 2612.00 2967
1995-07-01 187 2967.00 3179
8/1/1995 188 3179.00

Australia Wine Sales Monthly

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Australia Wine Sales Monthly

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month drywhite Forecast(drywhite) Lower Confidence Bound(drywhite)

select data drywhite and month

drywhite and month

Observation Predicted fortified

fortified Forecast(fortified) Lower Confidence Bound(fortified) Upper Confidence Bound(fortified)

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

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