Data (1)

DATE SALES
1985/03 529
1985/06 466
1985/09 563
1985/12 488
1986/03 499
1986/06 446
1986/09 578
1986/12 371
1987/03 526
1987/06 308
1987/09 585
1987/12 378
1988/03 462
1988/06 351
1988/09 515
1988/12 379
1989/03 479
1989/06 296
1989/09 447
1989/12 370
1990/03 491
1990/06 305
1990/09 485
1990/12 304
1991/03 413
1991/06 242
1991/09 337
1991/12 286
1992/03 231
1992/06 298
1992/09 386
1992/12 354
1993/03 255
1993/06 317
1993/09 403
1993/12 370
1994/03 241
1994/06 287
1994/09 279
1994/12 353
1995/03 272
1995/06 284
1995/09 298
1995/12 333
1996/03 223

Page 1
 Data (1)
1996/06 259
1996/09 279
1996/12 313
1997/03 183
1997/06 212
1997/09 278
1997/12 293
1998/03 184
1998/06 219
1998/09 235
1998/12 279
1999/03 179
1999/06 212
1999/09 215
1999/12 289
2000/03 157
2000/06 176
2000/09 194
2000/12 301
2001/03 244
2001/06 162
2001/09 189
2001/12 226
2002/03 127
2002/06 159
2002/09 179
2002/12 209
2003/03 117
2003/06 146
2003/09 171
2003/12 208
2004/03 109
2004/06 130
2004/09 161
2004/12 173
2005/03 114
2005/06 128
2005/09 150
2005/12 179
2006/03 90
2006/06 117
2006/09 130
2006/12 162
2007/03 110
2007/06 108
2007/09 127

Page 2
 Data (1)
2007/12 188
2008/03 83
2008/06 109
2008/09 126
2008/12 153
2009/03 89
2009/06 117
2009/09 118
2009/12 147
2010/03 72
2010/06 107
2010/09 98
2010/12 133
2011/03 85
2011/06 100
2011/09 99
2011/12 125
2012/03 82
2012/06 83
2012/09 96
2012/12 125
2013/03 71
2013/06 73
2013/09 94
2013/12 113
2014/03 60
2014/06 89

Page 3
 Figure 1. Brandy quarterly sales (1985-2013)
Brandy sales (1000 litres alcohol)

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
85 85 86 87 88 88 89 90 91 91 92 93 94 94 95 96 97 97 98 99 00 00 01 02 03 03 04 05 06 06 07 08 09 09 10 11 12 12 13 14
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
 Data (2)
t t2 SALES
1 1 529
2 4 466
3 9 563
4 16 488
5 25 499
6 36 446
7 49 578
8 64 371
9 81 526
10 100 308
11 121 585
12 144 378
13 169 462
14 196 351
15 225 515
16 256 379
17 289 479
18 324 296
19 361 447
20 400 370
21 441 491
22 484 305
23 529 485
24 576 304
25 625 413
26 676 242
27 729 337
28 784 286
29 841 231
30 900 298
31 961 386
32 1024 354
33 1089 255
34 1156 317
35 1225 403
36 1296 370
37 1369 241
38 1444 287
39 1521 279
40 1600 353
41 1681 272
42 1764 284
43 1849 298
44 1936 333
45 2025 223

Page 1
 Data (2)
46 2116 259
47 2209 279
48 2304 313
49 2401 183
50 2500 212
51 2601 278
52 2704 293
53 2809 184
54 2916 219
55 3025 235
56 3136 279
57 3249 179
58 3364 212
59 3481 215
60 3600 289
61 3721 157
62 3844 176
63 3969 194
64 4096 301
65 4225 244
66 4356 162
67 4489 189
68 4624 226
69 4761 127
70 4900 159
71 5041 179
72 5184 209
73 5329 117
74 5476 146
75 5625 171
76 5776 208
77 5929 109
78 6084 130
79 6241 161
80 6400 173
81 6561 114
82 6724 128
83 6889 150
84 7056 179
85 7225 90
86 7396 117
87 7569 130
88 7744 162
89 7921 110
90 8100 108
91 8281 127

Page 2
 Data (2)
92 8464 188
93 8649 83
94 8836 109
95 9025 126
96 9216 153
97 9409 89
98 9604 117
99 9801 118
100 10000 147
101 10201 72
102 10404 107
103 10609 98
104 10816 133
105 11025 85
106 11236 100
107 11449 99
108 11664 125
109 11881 82
110 12100 83
111 12321 96
112 12544 125
113 12769 71
114 12996 73
115 13225 94
116 13456 113

Page 3
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.905
R Square 0.818
Observations 116

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 456.068 10.768 42.35 0.000
t -3.618 0.160 -22.65 0.000
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.926
R Square 0.857
Observations 116

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 516.6 14.5 35.5 0.000
t -6.70 0.57 -11.7 0.000
t2 0.026 0.005 5.5 0.000

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted SALES Residuals

1 509.9 19.1
2 503.3 -37.3
3 496.8 66.2
4 490.2 -2.2
5 483.8 15.2
6 477.4 -31.4
7 471.0 107.0
8 464.7 -93.7
9 458.5 67.5
10 452.3 -144.3
11 446.1 138.9
12 440.0 -62.0
13 434.0 28.0
14 428.0 -77.0
15 422.1 92.9
16 416.2 -37.2
17 410.4 68.6
18 404.6 -108.6
19 398.9 48.1
20 393.2 -23.2
21 387.6 103.4
22 382.0 -77.0
23 376.5 108.5
24 371.0 -67.0
25 365.6 47.4
26 360.3 -118.3
27 355.0 -18.0
28 349.7 -63.7
29 344.5 -113.5
30 339.4 -41.4
31 334.3 51.7
32 329.3 24.7
33 324.3 -69.3
34 319.3 -2.3
35 314.5 88.5
36 309.6 60.4
37 304.9 -63.9
38 300.1 -13.1
39 295.5 -16.5
40 290.8 62.2
41 286.3 -14.3
42 281.8 2.2
43 277.3 20.7
44 272.9 60.1
45 268.5 -45.5
46 264.2 -5.2
47 260.0 19.0
48 255.8 57.2
49 251.7 -68.7
50 247.6 -35.6
51 243.5 34.5
52 239.5 53.5
53 235.6 -51.6
54 231.7 -12.7
55 227.9 7.1
56 224.1 54.9
57 220.4 -41.4
58 216.7 -4.7
59 213.1 1.9
60 209.5 79.5
61 206.0 -49.0
62 202.6 -26.6
63 199.2 -5.2
64 195.8 105.2
65 192.5 51.5
66 189.2 -27.2
67 186.1 2.9
68 182.9 43.1
69 179.8 -52.8
70 176.8 -17.8
71 173.8 5.2
72 170.9 38.1
73 168.0 -51.0
74 165.1 -19.1
75 162.4 8.6
 76 159.6 48.4
77 157.0 -48.0
78 154.4 -24.4
79 151.8 9.2
80 149.3 23.7
81 146.8 -32.8
82 144.4 -16.4
83 142.1 7.9
84 139.8 39.2
85 137.5 -47.5
86 135.3 -18.3
87 133.2 -3.2
88 131.1 30.9
89 129.0 -19.0
90 127.0 -19.0
91 125.1 1.9
92 123.2 64.8
93 121.4 -38.4
94 119.6 -10.6
95 117.9 8.1
96 116.2 36.8
97 114.6 -25.6
98 113.0 4.0
99 111.5 6.5
100 110.1 36.9
101 108.7 -36.7
102 107.3 -0.3
103 106.0 -8.0
104 104.7 28.3
105 103.5 -18.5
106 102.4 -2.4
107 101.3 -2.3
108 100.3 24.7
109 99.3 -17.3
110 98.3 -15.3
111 97.5 -1.5
112 96.6 28.4
113 95.9 -24.9
114 95.1 -22.1
115 94.5 -0.5
116 93.8 19.2
 Figure 2. Brandy sales with parametric trends
Brandy sales (100 litres alcohol)

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
85 85 86 87 88 88 89 90 91 91 92 93 94 94 95 96 97 97 98 99 00 00 01 02 03 03 04 05 06 06 07 08 09 09 10 11 12 12 13
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
 MA calculation
DATE SALES MA trend
1985/03 529
1985/06 466
1985/09 563 507.75
1985/12 488 501.50
1986/03 499 500.88
1986/06 446 488.13
1986/09 578 476.88
1986/12 371 463.00
1987/03 526 446.63
1987/06 308 448.38
1987/09 585 441.25
1987/12 378 438.63
1988/03 462 435.25
1988/06 351 426.63
1988/09 515 428.88
1988/12 379 424.13
1989/03 479 408.75
1989/06 296 399.13
1989/09 447 399.50
1989/12 370 402.13
1990/03 491 408.00
1990/06 305 404.50
1990/09 485 386.50
1990/12 304 368.88
1991/03 413 342.50
1991/06 242 321.75
1991/09 337 296.75
1991/12 286 281.00
1992/03 231 294.13
1992/06 298 308.75
1992/09 386 320.25
1992/12 354 325.63
1993/03 255 330.13
1993/06 317 334.25
1993/09 403 334.50
1993/12 370 329.00
1994/03 241 309.75
1994/06 287 292.13
1994/09 279 293.88
1994/12 353 297.38
1995/03 272 299.38
1995/06 284 299.25
1995/09 298 290.63
1995/12 333 281.38
1996/03 223 275.88

Page 1
 MA calculation
1996/06 259 271.00
1996/09 279 263.50
1996/12 313 252.63
1997/03 183 246.63
1997/06 212 244.00
1997/09 278 241.63
1997/12 293 242.63
1998/03 184 238.13
1998/06 219 231.00
1998/09 235 228.63
1998/12 279 227.13
1999/03 179 223.75
1999/06 212 222.50
1999/09 215 221.00
1999/12 289 213.75
2000/03 157 206.63
2000/06 176 205.50
2000/09 194 217.88
2000/12 301 227.00
2001/03 244 224.63
2001/06 162 214.63
2001/09 189 190.63
2001/12 226 175.63
2002/03 127 174.00
2002/06 159 170.63
2002/09 179 167.25
2002/12 209 164.38
2003/03 117 161.75
2003/06 146 160.63
2003/09 171 159.50
2003/12 208 156.50
2004/03 109 153.25
2004/06 130 147.63
2004/09 161 143.88
2004/12 173 144.25
2005/03 114 142.63
2005/06 128 142.00
2005/09 150 139.75
2005/12 179 135.38
2006/03 90 131.50
2006/06 117 126.88
2006/09 130 127.25
2006/12 162 128.63
2007/03 110 127.13
2007/06 108 130.00
2007/09 127 129.88

Page 2
 MA calculation
2007/12 188 126.63
2008/03 83 126.63
2008/06 109 122.13
2008/09 126 118.50
2008/12 153 120.25
2009/03 89 120.25
2009/06 117 118.50
2009/09 118 115.63
2009/12 147 112.25
2010/03 72 108.50
2010/06 107 104.25
2010/09 98 104.13
2010/12 133 104.88
2011/03 85 104.13
2011/06 100 103.25
2011/09 99 101.88
2011/12 125 99.38
2012/03 82 96.88
2012/06 83 96.50
2012/09 96 95.13
2012/12 125 92.50
2013/03 71 91.00
2013/06 73 89.25
2013/09 94
2013/12 113

Page 3
 Figure 3. Brandy sales with MA trend
Brandy sales (100 litres alcohol)

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
 DATE SALES TREND DEVIATION
1985/03 529 509.9 1.037
1985/06 466 503.3 0.926
1985/09 563 496.8 1.133
1985/12 488 490.2 0.995
1986/03 499 483.8 1.031
1986/06 446 477.4 0.934
1986/09 578 471.0 1.227
1986/12 371 464.7 0.798
1987/03 526 458.5 1.147
1987/06 308 452.3 0.681
1987/09 585 446.1 1.311
1987/12 378 440.0 0.859
1988/03 462 434.0 1.065
1988/06 351 428.0 0.820
1988/09 515 422.1 1.220
1988/12 379 416.2 0.911
1989/03 479 410.4 1.167
1989/06 296 404.6 0.732
1989/09 447 398.9 1.121
1989/12 370 393.2 0.941
1990/03 491 387.6 1.267
1990/06 305 382.0 0.798
1990/09 485 376.5 1.288
1990/12 304 371.0 0.819
1991/03 413 365.6 1.130
1991/06 242 360.3 0.672
1991/09 337 355.0 0.949
1991/12 286 349.7 0.818
1992/03 231 344.5 0.670
1992/06 298 339.4 0.878
1992/09 386 334.3 1.155
1992/12 354 329.3 1.075
1993/03 255 324.3 0.786
1993/06 317 319.3 0.993
1993/09 403 314.5 1.282
1993/12 370 309.6 1.195
1994/03 241 304.9 0.791
1994/06 287 300.1 0.956
1994/09 279 295.5 0.944
1994/12 353 290.8 1.214
1995/03 272 286.3 0.950
1995/06 284 281.8 1.008
1995/09 298 277.3 1.075
1995/12 333 272.9 1.220
1996/03 223 268.5 0.830
1996/06 259 264.2 0.980
1996/09 279 260.0 1.073
1996/12 313 255.8 1.224
1997/03 183 251.7 0.727
1997/06 212 247.6 0.856
1997/09 278 243.5 1.142
1997/12 293 239.5 1.223
1998/03 184 235.6 0.781
1998/06 219 231.7 0.945
1998/09 235 227.9 1.031
1998/12 279 224.1 1.245
1999/03 179 220.4 0.812
1999/06 212 216.7 0.978
1999/09 215 213.1 1.009
1999/12 289 209.5 1.379
2000/03 157 206.0 0.762
2000/06 176 202.6 0.869
2000/09 194 199.2 0.974
2000/12 301 195.8 1.537
2001/03 244 192.5 1.268
2001/06 162 189.2 0.856
2001/09 189 186.1 1.016
2001/12 226 182.9 1.236
2002/03 127 179.8 0.706
2002/06 159 176.8 0.899
2002/09 179 173.8 1.030
2002/12 209 170.9 1.223
2003/03 117 168.0 0.697
2003/06 146 165.1 0.884
2003/09 171 162.4 1.053
2003/12 208 159.6 1.303
2004/03 109 157.0 0.694
2004/06 130 154.4 0.842
2004/09 161 151.8 1.061
2004/12 173 149.3 1.159
2005/03 114 146.8 0.776
2005/06 128 144.4 0.886
2005/09 150 142.1 1.056
2005/12 179 139.8 1.281
2006/03 90 137.5 0.655
2006/06 117 135.3 0.865
2006/09 130 133.2 0.976
2006/12 162 131.1 1.236
2007/03 110 129.0 0.853
2007/06 108 127.0 0.850
2007/09 127 125.1 1.015
2007/12 188 123.2 1.526
2008/03 83 121.4 0.684
2008/06 109 119.6 0.911
2008/09 126 117.9 1.069
2008/12 153 116.2 1.316
2009/03 89 114.6 0.777
2009/06 117 113.0 1.035
2009/09 118 111.5 1.058
2009/12 147 110.1 1.336
2010/03 72 108.7 0.663
2010/06 107 107.3 0.997
2010/09 98 106.0 0.925
2010/12 133 104.7 1.270
2011/03 85 103.5 0.821
2011/06 100 102.4 0.977
2011/09 99 101.3 0.977
2011/12 125 100.3 1.247
2012/03 82 99.3 0.826
2012/06 83 98.3 0.844
2012/09 96 97.5 0.985
2012/12 125 96.6 1.293
2013/03 71 95.9 0.741
2013/06 73 95.1 0.767
2013/09 94 94.5 0.995
2013/12 113 93.8 1.204
 DATE SALES TREND DEVIATION SEASONAL DESEASONALIZEDEXP SMOOTHING
2001/03 244 192.5 1.268 0.781 312.2 312.2
2001/06 162 189.2 0.856 0.893 181.3 286.1
2001/09 189 186.1 1.016 1.017 185.9 266.0
2001/12 226 182.9 1.236 1.279 176.7 248.2
2002/03 127 179.8 0.706 0.781 162.5 231.0
2002/06 159 176.8 0.899 0.893 178.0 220.4
2002/09 179 173.8 1.030 1.017 176.1 211.6
2002/12 209 170.9 1.223 1.279 163.4 201.9
2003/03 117 168.0 0.697 0.781 149.7 191.5
2003/06 146 165.1 0.884 0.893 163.4 185.9
2003/09 171 162.4 1.053 1.017 168.2 182.3
2003/12 208 159.6 1.303 1.279 162.6 178.4
2004/03 109 157.0 0.694 0.781 139.5 170.6
2004/06 130 154.4 0.842 0.893 145.5 165.6
2004/09 161 151.8 1.061 1.017 158.4 164.1
2004/12 173 149.3 1.159 1.279 135.2 158.4
2005/03 114 146.8 0.776 0.781 145.9 155.9
2005/06 128 144.4 0.886 0.893 143.3 153.4
2005/09 150 142.1 1.056 1.017 147.6 152.2
2005/12 179 139.8 1.281 1.279 139.9 149.7
2006/03 90 137.5 0.655 0.781 115.2 142.8
2006/06 117 135.3 0.865 0.893 131.0 140.5
2006/09 130 133.2 0.976 1.017 127.9 137.9
2006/12 162 131.1 1.236 1.279 126.6 135.7
2007/03 110 129.0 0.853 0.781 140.8 136.7
2007/06 108 127.0 0.850 0.893 120.9 133.5
2007/09 127 125.1 1.015 1.017 124.9 131.8
2007/12 188 123.2 1.526 1.279 147.0 134.8
2008/03 83 121.4 0.684 0.781 106.2 129.1
2008/06 109 119.6 0.911 0.893 122.0 127.7
2008/09 126 117.9 1.069 1.017 123.9 126.9
2008/12 153 116.2 1.316 1.279 119.6 125.5
2009/03 89 114.6 0.777 0.781 113.9 123.2
2009/06 117 113.0 1.035 0.893 131.0 124.7
2009/09 118 111.5 1.058 1.017 116.1 123.0
2009/12 147 110.1 1.336 1.279 114.9 121.4
2010/03 72 108.7 0.663 0.781 92.1 115.5
2010/06 107 107.3 0.997 0.893 119.8 116.4
2010/09 98 106.0 0.925 1.017 96.4 112.4
2010/12 133 104.7 1.270 1.279 104.0 110.7
2011/03 85 103.5 0.821 0.781 108.8 110.3
2011/06 100 102.4 0.977 0.893 111.9 110.6
2011/09 99 101.3 0.977 1.017 97.4 108.0
2011/12 125 100.3 1.247 1.279 97.7 105.9
2012/03 82 99.3 0.826 0.781 104.9 105.7
2012/06 83 98.3 0.844 0.893 92.9 103.2
2012/09 96 97.5 0.985 1.017 94.4 101.4
2012/12 125 96.6 1.293 1.279 97.7 100.7
2013/03 71 95.9 0.741 0.781 90.9 98.7
2013/06 73 95.1 0.767 0.893 81.7 95.3
2013/09 94 94.5 0.995 1.017 92.5 94.7
2013/12 113 93.8 1.204 1.279 88.3 93.5
SMOOTHING
 Figure 4. Deseasonalized brandy sales
Brandy sales (100 litres alcohol)

350

300

250

200

150

100

50
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
 Figure 5. Exponentially smoothed brandy sales
Brandy sales (100 litres alcohol)

350

300

250

200

150

100

50
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012