Mois Dt Pt M2 et M2 |et M2| Pt M5 et M5 |et M5|

1 50
2 60
3 70 55 15 15 100
4 60 65 -5 5
5 80 65 15 15 90

6 70 70 0 0 64 6 6 80
7 60 75 -15 15 68 -8 8
70
8 80 65 15 15 68 12 12
9 70 70 0 0 70 0 0 60
10 70 75 -5 5 72 -2 2
50
11 60 70 -10 10 70 -10 10
12 50 65 -15 15 68 -18 18 40
13 70 55 15 15 66 4 4
30
14 50 60 -10 10 64 -14 14
15 80 60 20 20 60 20 20 20
16 90 65 25 25 62 28 28
10
17 70 85 -15 15 68 2 2
18 40 80 -40 40 72 -32 32 0
1 2 3 4
19 50 55 -5 5 66 -16 16
20 60 45 15 15 66 -6 6
 Courbe de simulation
100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Dt Pt M2 Pt M5
Mois Dt Pt (0,1) et (0,1) |et| (0,1) Pt (0,5) et (0,5) |et| (0,5)
1 44
2 51 44.00 7.00 7.00 44.00 7.00 7.00
3 48 44.28 3.72 3.72 47.50 0.50 0.50
4 75 44.43 30.57 30.57 47.75 27.25 27.25
5 55 45.65 9.35 9.35 61.38 -6.38 6.38
6 45 46.02 -1.02 1.02 58.19 -13.19 13.19
7 60 45.98 14.02 14.02 51.59 8.41 8.41
8 42 46.54 -4.54 4.54 55.80 -13.80 13.80
9 75 46.36 28.64 28.64 48.90 26.10 26.10
10 63 47.51 15.49 15.49 61.95 1.05 1.05
11 45 48.12 -3.12 3.12 62.47 -17.47 17.47
12 48 48.00 0.00 0.00 53.74 -5.74 5.74

Alpha 1 0.03996 ealm(0,1) 8.34 eabm(0,1) 9.79

35
Alpha 2 0.5 ealm(0,5) 1.14 eabm(0,5) 10.57
Alpha 3 0.294902 ealm(0,9) 2.56 eabm(0,9) 9.88 30

25

20

15

10

0
1 2 3
 Pt (0,9) et (0,9) |et| (0,9)

44.00 7.00 7.00

46.06 1.94 1.94
46.64 28.36 28.36
55.00 0.00 0.00
55.00 -10.00 10.00
52.05 7.95 7.95
54.40 -12.40 12.40
50.74 24.26 24.26
57.89 5.11 5.11
59.40 -14.40 14.40
55.15 -7.15 7.15

Chart Title

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

|et| (0,1) |et| (0,5) |et| (0,9)

12
Mois Dt at bt Pt et |et|
1 119 119.00 0.00
2 61 101.60 -8.70 119.00 -58.00 58.00
3 71 86.33 -11.99 92.90 -21.90 21.90
4 82 76.64 -10.84 74.34 7.66 7.66
5 109 78.76 -4.36 65.80 43.20 43.20
6 137 93.18 5.03 74.41 62.59 62.59
7 104 99.95 5.90 98.22 5.78 5.78
8 123 111.00 8.47 105.85 17.15 17.15
9 121 119.93 8.70 119.47 1.53 1.53
10 153 135.94 12.36 128.63 24.37 24.37
11 93 131.71 4.06 148.30 -55.30 55.30
12 104 126.24 -0.70 135.77 -31.77 31.77
13 87.88 -19.53338 125.54

Alpha 0.3 ealm -0.36

Beta 0.5 eblm 25.33
année Dt ECSt EMCSn CS DCVSt at bt Pt et
16 -4.74 -4.88 20.74 20.74 0.00 20.74
15 -0.32 -0.46 15.32 20.06 -0.38 20.74 -5.42
19 -5.94 -6.08 24.94 20.34 -0.01 19.68 5.27
24 -2.24 -2.38 26.24 21.07 0.41 20.33 5.91
21 -3.15 -3.29 24.15 21.82 0.59 21.48 2.67
17 -3.17 -3.31 20.17 22.13 0.44 22.41 -2.24
2009
24 -1.71 -3.24 -3.38 27.24 23.15 0.77 22.56 4.67
27 0.13 -4.06 -4.20 31.06 24.82 1.27 23.92 7.14
20 -8.04 -3.78 -3.92 23.78 25.79 1.11 26.08 -2.31
43 14.08 12.04 11.90 30.96 27.41 1.39 26.90 4.06
38 7.96 10.50 10.36 27.50 28.64 1.30 28.80 -1.30
40 8.71 9.71 9.57 30.29 29.98 1.32 29.94 0.35
25 -7.46 -4.74 -4.88 29.74 31.11 1.21 31.31 -1.57
34 0.79 -0.32 -0.46 34.32 32.57 1.35 32.32 2.00
28 -6.25 -5.94 -6.08 33.94 33.93 1.36 33.93 0.02
36 0.63 -2.24 -2.38 38.24 35.66 1.56 35.29 2.95
36 -0.42 -3.15 -3.29 39.15 37.47 1.70 37.22 1.93
32 -5.83 -3.17 -3.31 35.17 38.66 1.42 39.16 -4.00
2010
37 -2.00 -4.00 -4.14 41.00 40.19 1.48 40.08 0.92
32 -7.92 -6.15 -6.29 38.15 41.23 1.23 41.68 -3.53
40 -0.83 -1.65 -1.79 41.65 42.36 1.18 42.47 -0.82
50 8.17 11.02 10.88 38.98 42.96 0.85 43.54 -4.56
56 13.42 11.77 11.63 44.23 43.87 0.88 43.82 0.41
56 12.67 10.21 10.07 45.79 44.89 0.96 44.76 1.04
37 -7.13 -3.38 -3.52 40.38 45.15 0.57 45.84 -5.47
44 -1.04 -0.88 -1.02 44.88 45.62 0.51 45.73 -0.85
40 -6.08 -5.79 -5.93 45.79 46.09 0.49 46.13 -0.34
48 0.79 -3.67 -3.81 51.67 47.22 0.85 46.58 5.09
42 -6.25 -4.52 -4.66 46.52 47.87 0.74 48.06 -1.54
44 -4.88 -1.83 -1.97 45.83 48.26 0.54 48.61 -2.77
2011
44 -6.00 -6.00 -6.14 50.00 48.95 0.63 48.80 1.20
47 -4.38 -4.38 -4.52 51.38 49.80 0.75 49.58 1.80
50 -2.46 -2.46 -2.60 52.46 50.80 0.89 50.56 1.90
67 13.88 13.88 13.74 53.13 51.87 0.99 51.69 1.44
64 10.13 10.13 9.99 53.88 52.98 1.06 52.86 1.02
63 7.75 7.75 7.61 55.25 54.20 1.15 54.04 1.21
57 0.38 0.38 0.24 56.63 55.50 1.24 55.34 1.28
57 -0.71 -0.71 -0.85 57.71 56.86 1.30 56.74 0.97
53 -5.50 -5.50 -5.64 58.50 58.21 1.33 58.17 0.33
51 -8.13 -8.13 -8.27 59.13 59.48 1.30 59.54 -0.41
57 -2.79 -2.79 -2.93 59.79 60.66 1.23 60.78 -0.99
62 1.21 1.21 1.07 60.79 61.75 1.15 61.89 -1.10
2012
59 59.00 62.41 0.88 62.90 -3.90
58 58.00 62.62 0.50 63.29 -5.29
2012

58 58.00 62.48 0.14 63.12 -5.12

74 74.00 64.06 0.95 62.62 11.38
73 73.00 66.01 1.51 65.00 8.00
78 78.00 68.84 2.25 67.52 10.48
|et|
20.74
5.42
5.27
5.91
2.67
2.24
4.67 alpha 0.126 ealm 1.10
7.14 beta 0.559 eabm 3.33
2.31
4.06
1.30
0.35
1.57
2.00
0.02
2.95
1.93
4.00
0.92
3.53
0.82
4.56
0.41
1.04
5.47
0.85
0.34
5.09
1.54
2.77
1.20
1.80
1.90
1.44
1.02
1.21
1.28
0.97
0.33
0.41
0.99
1.10
3.90
5.29
 5.12
11.38
8.00
10.48