_

Année Trimestre (x) ventes(y) xi-x

1 600 -7.5

2 800 -6.5

3 500 -5.5

2018 4 200 -4.5

5 900 -3.5

6 1200 -2.5
7 400 -1.5

2019 8 180 -0.5

9 800 0.5
10 1100 1.5
11 600 2.5

2020 12 160 3.5

13 700 4.5
14 1400 5.5
15 700 6.5

2021 16 160 7.5

total 136 10400 0
moyennes 8.5 650 0

écart-type= 4.609772228646
écart-type/Moyenne= 54%

calcul des Csi

2018
T1 0.94
T2 1.25
T3 0.78
T4 0.31
 _ _ _ _
yi-y (xi-x)(yi-y) (xi-x)² y'=ax+b saison CS
y/y'
-50 375 56.25 638.529412 0.9397 MS 1.158
150 -975 42.25 640.058824 1.2499 HS 1.73 a=
-150 825 30.25 641.588235 0.7793 BS 0.844 b=
-450 2025 20.25 643.117647 0.311 TBS 0.269
250 -875 12.25 644.647059 1.3961 HS

550 -1375 6.25 646.176471 1.8571 THS y= 1,529 x +637

-250 375 2.25 647.705882 0.6176 BS
-470 235 0.25 649.235294 0.2772 TBS
150 75 0.25 650.764706 1.2293 HS
450 675 2.25 652.294118 1.6864 THS
-50 -125 6.25 653.823529 0.9177 MS
-490 -1715 12.25 655.352941 0.2441 TBS
50 225 20.25 656.882353 1.0656 MS
750 4125 30.25 658.411765 2.1263 THS
50 325 42.25 659.941176 1.0607 MS
-490 -3675 56.25 661.470588 0.2419 TBS
0 520 340 10400
0 32.5 21.25
cov(x,y) v(x)

nous avons une dispersion des données autour de la moyenne

existance de variations saisonnières

2019 2020 2021 Total Csi

1.40 1.23 1.07 4.63073473 1.1577 HS
1.86 1.69 2.13 6.91964776 1.7299 THS
0.62 0.92 1.06 3.3752597 0.8438 BS
0.28 0.24 0.24 1.07426288 0.2686 TBS
 1.5294
637

y= 1,529 x +637